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Thanks for posting Mani.... This trial aims to answer questions such as "Is long covid due to persistence of the virus that the body hasn't been able to get rid of?".
Many people suffer from exhaustion after a virus, sometimes for years, and every age, the results of this trial won't just help treat people with long Covid, so a worthwhile endeavour in my opinion.
I have always dismissed SNG being useful for long covid, but if it can help clear the remaining virus in the body, then I don't see why it shouldn't be included in this trial. And, if it works, help clear other respiratory viruses.
But can inhaling SNG001 into the lungs, clear the remaining virus that is hanging out in the gut, brain and other organs? I'm no biologist, but I assume that after it hits the mouth and lungs it is absorbed into the blood stream and circulates around the body.
But if it's your body that needs targeting, then why not just use interferon in pill form?
I'm not sure what the value of the company should be/will be once confirmed to be in a phase III trial. But it's well above £40m, SNG's current Mcap..... especially so given that worldwide Respiratory viruses are one of the biggest killers. Not to mention pandemic preparedness, which is still an unresolved issue.
So I suspect the rumour of being on one soon is the what is currently driving the SP.
Hedge funds make many calculated risks... some work, some don't... as long as more work than don't then they're in the money. They don't 'average down'... anyone who thinks that is just naive.... they sell and move on.
They didn't dump, they bought more. It is still a calculated risk, just at a new price.
At 30% they are obliged to make an offer for the company, and at the highest price THEY paid for any share they bought, within the previous year. So before Feb 22, prob around £2.... after that then about 30p.
Billy... the licensing deal broke down due to the trials inability, in 2014, to test upon the patients admission as to whether the patient had a bacterial or viral infection. The trial was controlled by AZN.
AZN then severed their tie with Synairgen before the data was deep dived and found that those who actually did have a viral infection benefitted from the treatment. Testing now, of course, is far more advanced.... so had this trial been done in 2020-22, it would've been much easier to determine the most suitable patients. Synairgen were a bit unlucky with this.... and the world was unlucky that AZN did not continue, if this drug had been on the shelves at the start of the Pandemic, there could well have been a different outcome to the millions of deaths.
If Poly intend to breach the 30% threshold they have to pay the maximum amount, that they paid, over the last year.... must be over 150p, I think it's more like 200.
Personally, think they are, and have always been, fronting for someone else. I can't see why else they would want to get so close to 30% otherwise. What would Poly want with the whole company otherwise?
Unless there is something that we all don't know yet, this looks oversold now, so just bought back in. Hoping this is the bottom now.
Qd22.... there's been a lot of talk about steroids and SNG001 being incompatible. As far as I am aware, Synairgen have never said that their inhaled interferon formula does not work with Steroids.
SOC improved hugely between Phase 2 & 3 and that reduced our success from 80% ish to 40% ish. Hence the deep dive to see if we can get this % up in certain groups (diabetics for example).
As well as the underpowered trial (too few patients). A bigger trial with the the same % then we can prove statistical difference.... better still if we can concentrate on the sub group of patients (from the deep dive) that faired better on SNG than other sub groups. Hence the push to be included into a government backed platform trial.
I'm no biologist, but that is my understanding.
****nBull.... interesting paper, thanks for posting.
Would this perhaps explain why people who had the Pfizer vaccine at the same time as unknowingly catching covid, now have long covid? Perhaps this is why, rather than the previous theory that their body was just overloaded.
Doc.... a lot of my daughters friends have reported incredibly heavy periods since taking the Pfizer vaccine.... and I mean a lot.... I think that is a strange and worrying side effect in the under 20s, who, in my opinion, didn't need the vaccine in the first place.
I am all for the vulnerable having the vaccine, but I am anti the young from having it when they clearly don't need it. The elderly and vulnerable take the flu vaccine, and the same should apply for Covid.
I found it interesting recently talking to friends the other night in an Indian Restaurant, who were, previously, so convinced that vaccines were the silver bullet, to hear them now wondering why they had all followed each other into having 3 vaccines. Two of them have now had covid 3 times, and four of them twice... all triple vaccinated. I decided not to have the third, as I wasn't offered AZ, only Pfizer... I felt, perhaps wrongly, that after experimenting with one type of vaccine, that I didn't want to experiment with another... especially as none had great results against Omicron. I have never had covid btw.
As we chatted, it appeared they all felt conned into believing the government and various tabloids that vaccines prevented the risk of catching covid, when clearly they did not. Vaccines, for sure, prevent severe disease, in the vulnerable. But without exception, all 8 people around the table said they would not be taking another covid vaccine. "Three, was one too many, I'm not having any more" was one comment.
I know this does not mean SNG will succeed, but I think that the narrative is changing from vaccines to treatments, it has to. USA was always are market, not UK, and with cases rising in USA week on week, I do feel more optimistic that the USA might be keener to EUA a treatment that can offer a 36% chance of living above SOC. I think this is why RM said that they needed to do the deep dive in order to prove that their 36% was "ROBUST"... his word. Why would he say that if he did not think there was a chance that a solid 36% just might do the trick?
I had previously given SNG only a 10% chance of getting an EUA, but I am more optimistic than that now.