RE: Broker rating15 May 2023 11:19
From Berenberg
Re-rating begins from now ? Rainbow Rare Earths (Rainbow) will issue 72.5m shares on 15 May following the closing of a USD9.5m fundraise, priced at GBp10.377 per share (a 28.1% premium to the 5 May close). The deal funds the completion and operation of the pilot plant at Rainbow’s Phalaborwa rare earths project in South Africa, which we think will be a major de-risking event for the shares. We expect additional near-term newsflow from the other major catalysts that we think will be key to the investment thesis and drive a continued re-rate in the shares: 1) the release of the definitive feasibility study (DFS) on the Phalaborwa project, probably in early 2024; 2) ongoing upside risk of offtakes/strategic deals with partners; 3) additional deals within the phosphogypsum space; and 4) consolidation of project ownership to 100%. We would buy now, ahead of a major rally post-technical de-risking. ? Pilot plant set to de-risk investment case: The pilot plant is key because its main goal is to prove the commercial operation of the continuous ion exchange (CIX)/continuous ion chromatography (CIC) technology which will produce separated rare earth oxides in a more environmentally friendly way than is possible for peers, who typically use solvent extraction (SX) technology. The plant will be up and running this quarter, and we expect Rainbow to confirm in the short term (Q2/Q3) that it can deliver rare earth oxides to the intended specification. This will be a major de-risking event, and we expect a significant positive reaction from the shares. ? Why we love the project: From a macro standpoint, we think rare earths are an attractive strategic commodity, closely linked to the energy transition and, on our calculations, a medium/long-term deficit market. Phalaborwa is reprocessing phosphogypsum stacks (a circular economy play), which have already been chemically “cracked”; this means that opex is lower than at peers. The USD/kg mineral assemblage is the highest of any development project globally, we calculate, and this, plus low costs, means a high-margin project (long-term EBITDA margins of 75% on a conservative price deck) and a post-tax NPV (100%) of USD628m, with upside. ? Model changes and valuation: We update our model for the equity raise and add in a USD20m raise in H2 2023 to progress studies and early works, before a USD100m equity raise in 2024 to fund the project. Our estimate of total equity raised for the final build is unchanged at USD120m. Our price target increases slightly to GBp33 per share. At 0.27x risked NAV, the stock is too cheap, and has a clear, near-term catalyst to drive a re-rating.