RE: Oil price rebound30 Jan 2020 22:59
From Seeking alpha
"Abrupt Reversal Of Shale Oil's Fortunes Points To A Radical Reset Of Oil Prices
Summary
The Reuters’ 2013 poll predicted $100 Brent. It went to $50. The 2020 poll predicts $65. If history is a guide, it will go to 2 x $65 = $130.
The second shale oil boom was due to 500 frac spreads paid for in the first; now only 300 are left, and 200 were sold for scrap. No one is buying new.
The prediction of a 900,000 bbl/day surge in production in 2020 is physically impossible; when the market finds that out, there will be a reset in oil prices.
From replacement cost, assuming plentiful supplies of cheap shale oil, back to the traditional pricing dictated by parasite economics.
Schlumberger and Halliburton have given up on fracking; they are headed offshore. That's where the action will be in 2020."