Member Info for skyebeacon

This chat has gone quiet - no news. All waiting for a low ball offer? But 4 institutions still own over 40% of the equity. I'm not sure they'll allow a very low offer. Any thoughts?

As it happens, I am

I don't think we know whether the second half was profitable yet, do we? And, yes, salaries will have gone up, leaving YGEN with the costs of scaling down again; but I imagine this has been anticipated. If the management haven't managed the wind-down, and can't build on the Govt sequencing contract, I shall indeed give up and go elsewhere. But I do foresee a bump in the price when more details arrive as the medium term prospects do seem brighter.

On the other hand, several of the RUA institutional investors would face reputational risk if a PI-shafting deal were done, and I imagine Amati would stop selling down if a deal were in the offing. The largest shareholder, Mr Richmond, would have a significant say. He's not mentioned among RUA directors - is he an ex-company man, or an outsider? Anyone know? And again, this may all be irrelevant. Several companies have complained how impossibly slow the FDA is currently. A huge backup of applications has resulted from covid sickness slowdown, and the concentration on covid related applications. I understand the delays are particularly bad for physical (as opposed to drug) products, so perhaps RUA haven't got any sense out of their discussions yet. (But probably RUA would have let us know if that were the case).
So I expect the most likely reasons for the delay are the real ones - a scramble for money on reasonable terms to bridge the gap, perhaps coupled with the signing of one of the bigger production deals there are in the offing - to sweeten the RNS.
Fake news will flourish in the absence of an RNS.
Quite fun waffling on this board - only one listener, and nobody sledging.

Seems to me that next months update is likely to be positive.
- while not earning much during the setup phase, I guess the last six months of covid testing will have been profitable
- cashflow has been massively up; hopefully a factor in speeding up international operations
- critically, YGEN seems to have got it's foot in the door for long term analysis of covid, watching for new dangerous variants developing
- as covid is international, and develops differently in different places, I guess a large number of countries are going to want tests, providing a big opportunity, directly through YGEN, or through local partners
- no doubt other viruses are on their way
Seems to me that YGEN has had a good year, giving finances a boost, and opening up a host of opportunity. Those who know the quality of management better than I will know if it will all just slide past them

Too much risk - sold the lot.

As I understand it, managers backed by MBO specialists will appear with an offer for the company, probably at a derisory premium, explaining why holders should sell to them instead of hanging on. Generally , any large holders are already on board, with sweeteners. They'll be controlling a chunk of shares, and will persuade us we're best off out. Enough shareholders will go, and that's it. White knight for a company like RUA is unlikely. (But am I doing a reverse ramp, hoping you'll sell so that I can buy, in the knowledge that an optimistic RNS is just round the corner!! - or am I just plain wrong.}

Yes - that's where the MBO chaps offer lots of money to help - in return for a nice chunk of shares and upside for themselves. Hate talking down my own holding!

As a relatively large holder feeling locked in by a high average price, my worry is that at current prices, the managers must be tempted by MBO specialists to keep the profits to themselves. Any thoughts?

Have just secured £3k on Halifax but the price was hiked to 14.50

Announcement coming in 10 minutes on HotCopper
GLA

Hi Bridgedogg1,

As you ask, it was I who posted on 25th February an estimate of the depths of our seven targets. I am not aware that an official statement of the depths has ever been published, and I did not claim accuracy.

I based it on an assumption that the scale on the LHS of slide 15 had a linear relationship to depth.

However, a more knowledgeable poster than I has since explained that the scale represents the period of time taken for the seismic waves to return to the surface. The speed of the wave varies according to the strata it is passing through, and is also likely to be affected by temperature and pressure, so the scale cannot be linearly related to depth.

Therefore I do not reproduce my estimates here (but have given you enough information to locate my original post if you wish).

In the end, the depth of the targets should matter little to us holders - it's the quantity, quality and recoverability of the oil that resides there.

Best of luck to all holders.

If I am correct in inferring that 2000 on the scale on the LHS of slide 15 is equivalent to a depth of 10000 feet, then our targets are at the following (approximate) depths:

Indigo 5600 - 5800 ft
Charlie 5850 - 6100 ft
Upper Lima 8850 - 9000 ft
Lower Lima 9200 - 9300 ft
Upper Stellar 10100 - 10350 ft
Middle Stellar 10400 - 10550 ft
Lower Stellar 10600 - 10750 ft

The above depths for the Torok (Stellar) closely match those encountered in Malguk1 (slide 12).

In addition, olderwiser on hotcopper (post- RNS of 27 Nov) mentions Malguk1 penetrating the HRZ at 10900 ft.

As a further check on the above, slide 13 from the November presentation pictures the Schrader Bluffs target (Indigo and Charlie) at about half the depth of the entire drill.

GLA

S4K, I agree that if the FO partner had withdrawn, that fact should have been announced (price sensitive information). I would also recommend that you read docmin 24's posts on HotCopper last night. He reported that DW was still "positive" on the FO.
However, FO news cannot be first announced at the AGM; there would have to be a prior announcement. Also, most votes will have been cast prior to the AGM - on past experience, the number of shareholders actually present at the meeting will be small, perhaps 30. GLA

The new LSE Beta website appears to offer all the current content, with the addition of "short positions". You have to click on "Members" in order to access such facilities as watchlists via a submenu. However, all personal share data has been retained.

Share chat format on Beta is similar to HotCopper: you have to click on the relevant thread name to read any post, but it lacks a "thumbs up" column which would have been helpful in identifying the posts you would most want to read.

Is it possible that DW might have negotiated alternative deals with the prospective farmout partner(s)?
(a) to take effect if Winx-1 were a success, and (b) to take effect if not?
That might help explain the delay to Post-Winx to sign up.
Clearly, under (a) we would have been able to commit more capital, and earn a bigger share of the rewards.
But the existence of (b) would rule out "no deal".
Cut your coat according to the cloth - or.....
Fry your fish according to the oil ?
GLA

That crossbreed would be a quagga, n'est-ce pas?

Now we entertain both quokkas and quaggas. Curious

Is it possible that DW might have negotiated alternative deals with the prospective farmout partner(s)?
(a) to take effect if Winx-1 were a success, and (b) to take effect if not?
Clearly, under (a) we would have been able to commit more capital, and earn a bigger share of the rewards.
But the existence of (b) would rule out "no deal".
Cut your coat according to the cloth - or.....
Fry your fish according to the oil ?
GLA

Three hours in, both ASX and chi-X are making steady progress, now both 2.5 cents which is equivalent to 1.35p. Just needs a little extra push to overtake us at the close.
Am liking this momentum.....

Simple, AA. Chance of all four failing would be 6.25%. (50 x 50 x 50 x 50)

Perhaps more relevant, if the COS of each project were only 25%, the chance of all four failing would still be only 31.64%, say 32%.

GLTA