We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
I don't know what to think, I try to be logical and go off the evidence.
Noble have the begging bowl out at present, having said they were fully funded for their shallow well pilot plant. I wouldn't have thought their shallow wells would have needed a rig such as the Predator, and personally I'm not a fan of the lease out theory, cost implications if the rig were to fail drilling a 3rd party well.
So quite a bit of rigging/derigging support equipment may have gone 'awol' - find where it is, and that may be our next drill target.
Of course if the next set of images show equipment has returned then we then need to reassess the conclusions.
Of course, without wanting to extrapolate too far, from a few grainy images, the implication of these latest images is interesting. There could be a number of reasons for support equipment leaving the pad areas, maybe for long term maintenance in Mbeya prior to the new drilling season, or maybe it was on lease and is no longer required but the sort of equipment which appears to be represented by the black blobs which are no longer present, diggers, cranes, flatbeds etc is the sort of equipment which during 2023 tended to follow the rig around for dismantling and reassembly. If subsequent images show that the pads are indeed clear of much equipment, then the implication is that they are required else where for reassembly, and that the rig...well, I'll leave that to your own conclusions. Pending confirmation, and just a hunch at present...
Part 2
Contrast with Tai-3 where we were treated to an array of good images, such as this
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53372150871/in/dateposted-public/
Why so secretive now? Anyway back to Itumbula W - the key thing is that the four back blobs surrounding the pad area now appear to be much diminished and number just one, perhaps two, with the cement hoppers and tanker possibly still being present. So it would appear that recent activity is that some of the white containers were removed from Itumbula SE around early March, followed by various bits of equipment first half of April, and in the last week equipment appears to have been removed from Itumbula W. So where has it gone, and has it gone permanently or is it just temporary? Only time will tell the latter, and as to the where, well it hasn't gone to Camp Rukwa. Tai-3? Maybe, some earthworks there but I'd still say these look agricultural rather than He1 related, and the pad looks so far as I can tell a bit neglected, but impossible to say until some black/white blobs appear or the area turns green suggesting crops growing. At present it is just a brown cleared area. So at present nothing can be determined, save that we know LB & Co were in Tz around 10-4-2024, and there has been some activity at SE and W since that date with equipment being removed from both pads, but to where is yet to be determined. As of 16-4-24 the Eyasi licences remain approved but not yet issued.
It does look like the rains have finished in our part of Rukwqa this season, the area has been generally clear the last few weeks with much of Tz free from cloud today, although there is presently a storm moving in from the East. It looks like the 2024 ground activities actually commenced a couple of weeks ago. Not that I'm expecting confirmation from He1 just yet. In 2023 it took them some 8 weeks to confirm that ground activity was actually taking place, even though it could be seen on Sentinel.
Part 1
A quick update on activities at Rukwa up to yesterday. These are the Itumbula W and SE pads, top 6 days ago, bottom yesterday
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53668239891/in/dateposted-public/
Taking the SE pad first this latest image seems to be confirmation that some of the white containers, presumably offices and accommodation were removed in early March, followed by items of equipment around mid April - the "blobs" on the W part of the pad are no longer present in the images of 15-4-24 and 20-4-24. Some equipment remains in the SE corner of the pad and the cellar area is visible as a black "blob" in the centre.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53647475594/in/dateposted-public/
The W pad also appears shows some recent changes over the last week or so, although we would need confirmation with another image to be certain and there seems to have been a little high level cloud yesterday which slightly obscures the image. This is a series of images taken between the beginning of March and mid April, showing a couple of white blobs on the pad, one in the middle and one towards the S part of the pad, these appear to be respectively cement hoppers and a tanker.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53647599215/in/dateposted-public/
How do we know this? Well from this image
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53544301885/in/dateposted-public/
tweeted by He1 in early February 2024, one of only two images of the pad, both from a distance and at ground level. There have never been any images of the Itumbula SE pad.
The end of April is when things start to motor around Rukwa. Latest images suggest that there is considerable activity around the Noble Base Campsite with significant changes between mid February and yesterday from Sentinel
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53661838767/in/dateposted-public/
their camp seems to have expanded significantly over the last two month. Impossible to say what equipment is being moved into there without ground images or a Maxar satellite shot. In the last week a considerable amount of equipment has been moved from the north east corner of the site towards the south, with possible additions? This movement could be because the lake shore has expanded towards the camp.
For context this is the campo late last year, although it appears to have been almost completely reconsituted since then - no close up images released though since last October
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53248908958/in/dateposted-public/
Very quickly, and no firm conclusions as yet, this is Itumbula yesterday
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53658965139/in/dateposted-public/
Compare with images over previous weeks here
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53647475594/in/dateposted-public/
and equipment present at the pad over the last month or so appears to have been removed from Itumbula SE in the last 5 days, as much of the pad is now clear and looks much "cleaner". Comparison with Itumbula W over previous weeks suggests that much equipment remains there, but will have to look in more detail later to be sure
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53647599215/in/dateposted-public/
Tai-3 looks a little more interesting, an area just to the east of the pad looks like it has been cleared over that last month or so, comparisons here
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53658940869/in/dateposted-public/
At present I'd view this as normal agricultural activity, too early to suggest otherwise, but two things hint, but only hint that this might not be so, firstly last year construction at Tai commenced around end April, secondly a large area of cleared ground is unusual at this time of year, see this area image
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53658813893/in/dateposted-public/
however the boundaries of the cleared area may match existing field boundaries
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/52981162436/in/dateposted-public/
Really need a few more good pictures to be sure that there is or is not any He1 related activity here
Part 1
Just a quick update on activity around Itumbula over the last month or so. This is images of Itumbula SE between 1-3-24 and 11-4-24.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53647475594/in/dateposted-public/
As I speculated earlier some of the accommodation/office containers shown as white were removed around early March, as the most recent images confirm that their "footprint "is now much smaller, In addition the light brown pad area on 1-3-24 was much darker on 11-3-24 indicating heavy vehicle movements (probably associated with the removal of the containers), in the subsequent images it gets lighter indicating movements have stopped. But the pad, on 10-4-24 apart from the containers now looks similar to the 1-3-24, so it looks like only the containers have been removed and nothing else since 11-3-24.
This is Itumbula W on the same dates
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53647599215/in/dateposted-public/
again movements early March with equipment being removed, but not the white containers, and nothing since mid March, although the most recent image is partly obscured by cloud shadow. From Twitter it looks like Lorna and the team were in Tanzania for several days around the first full week in April. I can't help but feel that Zak Mir may have got wind of this visit and timed his pump and dump to coincide with the period immediately prior to this.
However it was this tweet that caught my eye "Helium One
@Heliumone1
·
10 Apr
"Here, our #HE1 CEO and Director of Operations meeting with Dr. Vedast Makota (Director of Licensing and Information Systems) and Eng. Aziza Swedi (Manager of Mining Cadastre) of the Mining Commission "
Cont/...
Cont/...
Reason being that there appear to have been some important changes to the Tz Mining Cadastre Portal in recent weeks. firstly a new helium licence has been applied for on the other side of Lake Rukwa by the Kom Mining company, here
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53647599515/in/dateposted-public/
Secondly and perhaps more intriguingly the licence applications held by Helium Rift Valley Limited, mainly from around 2016/7, applied for, approved but not issued now appear to have been transferred into the hands of the Mining Commission itself.
Around Rukwa they are basically along the rift south of Nobles areas extending around 50km S of our licences here -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53642228242/in/dateposted-public/
To give an idea of scale He1 holds 18 licences, with another 9 "secret" applications at Eyasi. Helium Rift Valley had 54 applications, they retain 1, 2 are now modified, 51 are in the hands of the Mining Commission - those are the chaps LB met earlier this month and tweeted about. Why meet and tweet the chap who draws the maps for the Mining Commission? It isn't just helium licences they've taken over it is some other older applications also, but HRV have, it appears, lost most of their applications and presumably they are now available to be doled out by the Mining Commission. The extent of the Mining Commission controlled areas around Eyasi are here edged light blue, (oil licence area is coloured, seismic hatched red, He1 licences and applications highlighted within the oil licence area) although by no means are all helium licences (in fact many are for other commodities, and would not be appropriate, under present theory for helium mining)
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53653213365/in/dateposted-public/
No firm conclusions as to what is going on behind the scenes, they could have taken over the licences for a number of reasons, but if you are looking for licences then I guess it helps to keep in with the Mining Commission.
Maybe that tweet was a hint.
Butterfly, glad you liked it. i've done a number of versions, experimenting, and I think I am getting better.
I'm sure that there is an old joy stick in the garage somewhere, boxed up in all the kids stuff. I'm sure i'll get a smoother "fly through" with that so I'll have to dig it out and get it back into action. I think I can also switch the various layers on and off as the camera orbits over a certain point to highlight various areas/aspects, one of the problems is that with several layers overlapping you lose some or quite a bit of the detail . So I've got some practising to do!
This is an earlier version, similar but brings out slightly different detail in the rift valley and licences at Eyasi.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EoOsuAi2rE
Just a bit of fun (lest people take things far too seriously) this is an overflight of the Rukwa/Eyasi area using google Earth, information from He1 and noble and various learned geologist type people.
Should add it starts off at the North end of Lake Malawi, where Noble has licences, up past the Geothermal drill site, Rungwe volcanoes, and Mbeya, North along Lake Rukwa, He1, Noble then East to Eyasi/Balangida, although Balangida is so small you barely notice it, then back over North Rukwa and then South to the starting point.
Should also add that at present I'm out of He1 having taken the roller coaster from around 10p to 28p thence to .19p and back up to 3p.
The possible need for funding puts me off at present. Love the project don't love the share.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NM81XABTU20
PS. I am very much an amateur movie maker, watch for those hairpin turns. Not quite as good quality as i would have hoped but will try to improve it when I get a chance.
How Eyasi relates to Rukwa
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53622926050/in/dateposted-public/
Part 2
Rather interestingly the only areas now not subject to applications are those which form the route of the East Africa pipeline, and smallish areas to the west, north and south of He1's new applications. are these areas being kept clear for a reason, whereas everywhere else has been snapped up?
Whereas the original gold licence applications did impinge of He1 application areas the latest applications are careful not to overlap He1 applications.
Also thinking generally this is a theorised interpretation of the sources of the helium at Rukwa pre Itumbula W
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53291973974/in/dateposted-public/
but bearing in mind the theorised seal trapping system does not appear to exist as outlined here, and the helium appears to be flowing directly from the basement, maybe they need a new model?
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53291973974/in/dateposted-public/
This maybe why He1 is now taking so long to release new news are the original interpretations may have been quite wrong. Noble of course say they have a trap and sea.l
Just following on from the post around a week ago regarding the geothermal drilling in our region, due to start next month I've now identified the exact location of the drill site. It is here
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53622466843/in/dateposted-public/
on an image from Google Earth taken on 23-10-2023 and is actually on the flanks of the Ngozi Volcano. How this relates to the He1 and Noble licences and our wells is here
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53622254891/in/dateposted-public/
and here
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53622701645/in/dateposted-public/
in the last image the yellow triangles are volcanoes, orange circles earthquakes M4+ from 1900onwards, crosses are below M4 earthquakes, blue tears are hot springs. This also gives an overview of the volcanic province and licences
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53614875751/in/dateposted-public/
Rukwa is generally cloudy atm so no good Sentinel imagery, although the satellite passed over Rukwa a couple of hours ago, but the weather satellite suggests it was probably cloudy again. will check later.
I don't think I've posted this before but it is a comparison of the licence maps at Eyasi, that on the left 17-11-23 and on the right 24-3-24. Quite a few new gold licences have been granted over the last 6 months, but none over overlapping licence areas with He1. Areas which were empty of licence applications 6 months ago, top centre and lower left have now filled up with applications. In fact when He1 made its applications in Feb 2023 (edged green) probably half this area wasn't subject to any applications at all, so He1 did well getting in there then as very few areas are now not subject to any applications - was that a coincidence or not - as outlined earlier He1 made its applications all in the week following DM's departure. The maps are in the region of around 75km x 175km.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53610765451/in/dateposted-public/
Surely the delisting is designed to ensure that no one else apart from Roxi comes in on the fundraise, unless it is someone who is prepared to wait many years before being able to exit?
This is a nice video of the geothermal project, issued today. Drilling in May.
Of interest is that the geothermal licences are just a few km away from some of Nobles helium licences around 100km South of Itumbula.
As the Tz drilling will go to around 1200 metres, (not sure if that will reach basement) what are the chances they will bring up some helium with the hot water?
Can't post a map of the area atm, but will try tomorrow evening.
And why can't He1 do video's like this?
https://twitter.com/TGDCTanzania/status/1772676247983640824?t=sLADVwCrmiN6BR3Oq1KHvg&s=19
News from 22-3-2024
https://www.sondrel.com/newsroom/sondrel-reports-increasing-customer-demand-for-its-3nm-design-service
"Decent contract however the annual production revenue doesnt amount to much."
Indeed, but that could be the price of getting all the upfront costs paid in advance at a time when the company was close to insolvency - not that I ever expected it to go into insolvency.
I can imagine a situation in which quite a few customers were holding back contracts etc fearful that insolvency could take place, most managers wouldn't take the risk.
I would expect now that risk has been removed, the contracts to start flowing in, and on better terms as the company moves forward.
No coincidence that this announcement comes out today.
The vote should be a slam dunk, with director holdings of 45%. So I expect no problems with the fundraise, and it to be completed this week.
For the most part large holders seem to be loyal, and I expect a flurry of announcements in the coming few weeks. Today is just a taster. The shares price has been 'held back' by the placing, Hopefully after today the brakes will be released.
Maybe for Sondrel fully funded design contracts are the way forward, effectively a no lose situation for Sondrel.