Member Info for skier1

With global credit drying up, some volatility measures (like JGBs) at record highs, CDOs looking very toppy, and the Fed raising rates way too fast, the environment for UK and US banks is very bad right now. Those signs are alarmingly similar to 2006 / 2007.

LLOY fell about -90% in the last recession in the 2000s. If that is repeated in the current bear market, LLOY could bottom out at 10-20p next year.

A timeline of recent changes at NAK, why the shares have doubled, and have more huge upside potential...

* Nov 06th, 2018 = First Point (a big recruiter) pounces from zero and buys 24% of NAK...
* Nov 20th, 2018 = NAK results deliver first profit in years...
* Nov 26th, 2018 = First Point increases its stake again to 29%...
* Dec 13th, 2018 = Ken Ford, a NAK Board advisor, ups his stake in NAK from 3% to 4%...

Industry insiders and company insiders are sucking up NAK shares.

NAK shares today are valued at 3-5 times fullyear operating profit. Rival recruiters, like Hays, sit at 10-15 x operating profit.

And, of course, First Point owns 29% of the firm, and Sheffield Haworth (a rival recruiter) owns 24% of the firm.

Rising profits + potential takeover + potential bidding war = excellent share price ;-)

Well done to everyone who swooped early and made money here today. A huge +210% rise in 1hr in a vicious bear market is exceptional. It would take 30 years to see the same rise in the FTSE100!

PAT has been shrewd. It has partnered with a local Indian VC and miner with good government contacts. If you've ever done business in India, you will know how important it is to be friendly with local powerbrokers. Given the £1m spent by Galaxy to buy into PAT at an initial £11m valuation, and the RNS mentions "extensive *legal* due diligence", it is a fair bet they will get the license in 2019, and probably sell the whole mine and remaining ~90% to Galaxy.

New auditor appointed. Better late than never... But, at least, things are moving forward.

Up +200% now. Share of the month. Santa rally.

Next leg up.

Up +112% now. PAT's IGL project valued by a buyer at 16p a share...

The buyer today, Galaxy, has bought in at the equivalent of 16p per PAT share.

The deal values their IGL project at £11m. Current marcap is £1m.

Chair Powell is saying he's worried about full US unemployment pushing up US inflation. But with most of the world tumbling, and oil tumbling, the rate-rise seems a bit overkill. Suspect the Fed will lower rates again in 6 months or so.

That 21m sell is one of the biggest clangers in a long time. If they had just waited 2 hours, they'd have made an extra £10k!

Yup, looks like a classic social meeja pump-and-dump today.

You can buy the shares over the phone with a Hargreaves Lansdown share account.

Trump looks set to legalize hemp and marijuana production with a new US farm bill this week. This could help GW Pharma.

Lol. The bankers have been calling for a breakup of GSK because it generates tens of millions of Pounds of fees for them. The bankers make money when it breaks up... and they make money again when it gets taken over in a few years' time.

In a globalizing world of mega-corporations from US, China and EU, making yourself smaller is not a wise move. Glaxo and the UK will come to regret this breakup in the future. This has got ICI and BT written all over it. Short-term gain will become long-term pain.

Doubt this will end well in the long-term. The CEO is breaking Glaxo up into 2 smaller companies, which will make them more vulnerable to overseas takeover.

May's deal is basically "half out" and pretty good news for the City of London and banks like Lloyds. It maintains passports and access to EU financial markets.

A "fully out" Brexit would be a disaster for the City of London. It would no longer be the world's gateway to Europe.

May's problem is that she lacks charisma, her voice is too quiet for authority, and she is not very good at soundbites. She lacks the wow factor to excite followers.

This is gonna do well.

Low growth and making a loss...

Dow got a death cross today. Following a US bond yield-inversion last week. Both very bearish signs for all stockmarkets and GDP worldwide in 2019.

A no-deal Brexit crisis would be easily as bad as the 2009 financial crisis. Folk would panic and sell down all FTSE stocks like no tomorrow. Ditto for communist Corbyn and his extremist economics. Don't think either of those scenarios are yet fully baked into PSN or FTSE100.

Brexit makes a huge difference to house prices and house demand. The UK housing market is propped up by rich foreigners in London, Cambridge, etc. If they disappeared, through perceived or real barriers, the UK housing market would slump, perhaps 10-20%, and PSN would tumble with it.

If you look at the betting markets, they are today predicting Corbyn will be the next UK PM! That is a (very) scary prospect for PSN (and almost all UK stocks). Taxes will soar, public debt will spiral out of control, assets (like secondary homes) will be seized. It just doesn't bear thinking about.