Member Info for skier1

Looks like some panic is setting in here!

MTMY Tel Aviv today closed 5-10% lower than London...

It is the same old cycle every year... Press and analysts say in Nov there will be a retail apocalypse... Results in Jan and Feb turn out to be not-too-bad... Total UK retail revenues were actually up 2-3% in 2018.

Press stir the pot to sell newspapers and clicks... Analysts deramp and reramp, to enable clients and colleagues to trade the swings up and down.

As for DEB, it's hard to see them surviving in their current structure. Their cost base of giant shops and overstaffing is just way too high for long-term survival.

Looks like more nerves are creeping in here today!

Wouldn't be a surprise to see a selloff on Sunday in Israel, or on Mon / Tues in London if the bondholders disappoint.

G4M clearly have serious logistics problems. They had problems in Sweden a few months ago, and now they have problems in the core UK market. Top management don't appear to have the skills to post a few guitars.

Its wafer-thin profit margins have halved, and are getting even thinner, at under £1m for 2019. It's not hard to envisage one more logistics cockup this year sending them into loss territory. Trouble comes in threes, as they say...

Valuing G4M at a more realistic 10-15 x profit, to account for the discounting and operational risks, and to account for Brexit and Corbyn, it brings a shareprice target around 50p.

G4M have obvs worked themselves into a corner. They've been under-pricing and over-marketing to gain volume share. That has left the firm between a rock and a hard place... If they halt the price cuts or adverts, their revenue growth will collapse and absolute profits will shrink further... If they keep cutting prices, they still have to find millions of Pounds to expand their chaotic logistics system, and profits will also shrink further... Throw in a Brecession, and a commie Corbyn PM 70% tax apocalypse, and you can quickly build a scenario here for big losses and 50p shareprice in 2019 / 2020...

It is easy to see why so many bailed out today. This is now a very risky share, in the same bucket as Debenhams or HoF.

Looks like some nerves creeping in here!

Hardcore ramptastic ramping earlier in the week has become nervous squabbling at the end of the week...

The problem is, G4M's profits are collapsing in the busiest period of the year (H2 2018 / Xmas gifts).

That suggests profits will fall further in the quietest period of the year (H1 2019 / Brexit chaos).

Wouldn't be a surprise to see more profit warnings here in the coming months, and a shareprice tumbling into the £1-2 range.

Where is today's Twitter takeover rumour...

It's gone midday... and there's been no pump yet of "my mate says Google will pay a billion for a firm teetering on the edge of bankruptcy"...

Come on, guys. Brighten up everyone's day ;-)

Profits are collapsing while revenues are soaring! That is a big red flag right there. It suggests pricing and marketing are out of control.

Bet the Sales boss watched Wolf of Wall Street one Sunday night, came into work on Monday all pumped up, and started slashing prices like Freddy Krueger to gain marketshare for Xmas... Only, he didn't tell the Logistics boss... who rolled in on Tuesday morning to find undelivered trumpets stacked up to the warehouse ceiling :-)

Reading between the lines, G4M looks in chaos behind the scenes.

If your logistics cannot cope with modest 40% growth and posting a few extra drumkits for Tommy's Xmas present, then it suggests there are deeper problems and top management don't have the skills to run a big warehouse.

No doubt, there will be a short-term technical bounce. Like Asos, a few days ago.

But long-term, G4M will probably follow the classic British business route -- muddle through... the shareprice will drift down to £1... and then a skilled American or German company, like Amazon, will jump in and buy G4M on the cheap for £1.50... ratchet up the retail prices... and repatriate all the profits abroad through Luxembourg, etc.

Looks like Mr 1% came back and bought another 0.4% of the company today...

Lol. That Google social meeja pump-and-dump is back again! It's like a boomerang ;-)

WSBN is a ~£4m company that wants to spank ~$20m building refineries around Africa this year. That is a lot of debt, loans, warrants or placings to be factored in here.

Looks like today's social meeja pump-and-dump ;-)

Technicals for the gold price in 2019 are "explosive" and point to a 3-year bull-trend, according to Bloomberg. Some are speculating now about $2,000 gold (up from $1250).

PAT's gold mine in India (and elsewhere) is getting more valuable by the week.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-01-02/Gold-To-Take-The-Bull-Baton-From-The-U-S-Dollar-In-2019-Bloomberg-Intelligence.html

Looks like the recent Ethereum spike is driving fresh interest in blockchain players, like OBC.

Another tickup coming. Looks headed into the 3s.

Gold today hits a new, 6-month high, after the tech wreck of Apple yesterday.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/gold-markets-global-economy-asian-stock-markets-in-focus.html

From £8m to £16m marcap in 7mins :-)

Rumours swirling (unconfirmed) that SFOR might bid for some or all of MTMY (smart advertising).