Member Info for sj74

It certainly wouldn't be for the whole of THG as it's only up to £1 billion from £30 million. The only chance would be a division. Even then it's a push.. unless it's ingenuity.

North in a big way within 12 months is my guess :)

Relax.. stop worrying.

To be fair Roberto does come across as quite panicky and desperate. More so than I've seen of any other investor on this bb.

If they were to bid it would likely to be for nutrition or beauty not both.

"It is our belief that some of the most promising and undervalued businesses are hidden within UK listed conglomerates. "

You'll be out at 50p Roxi 😉

Nice, shorts reduced again.. nice and low now :)

I'm not saying Ingenuity has no value, I'm saying this is the wrong market right now for ingenuity. It was/is a drain. The market wants profit and cash, Ingenuity did the complete opposite and stifled nutrition and beauty.

If you can stand to be in a private company and wait for years and a bit of an unknown then it's worth a bet as it seems to be going from strength to strength.

Yes I do think the market gave ingenuity negative value. The fact was that nutrition/beauty were handing c£100million per year to fund ingenuity which wasn't giving anything to THG as a whole, it was dragging the rest of the businesses down. That dead weight will be removed with huge savings and more cash for the company to do what it wants.

For clarity, my target is £1.20 which I reckon is quite conservative. Looking at a 3 year view here, Nutrition likely to start trending positively again next year, interest rates continuing heading down and debts likely to reduce, along with the possibility of shareholder returns and the e-commerce companies becoming fashionable again I would hazard many multiples from today's price is quite possible.

Reminder:-

In FY25 we expect to deliver revenue growth and return EBITDA margin to around pre-COVID levels (c.6%). In the medium-term we have confidence in our ability to return to double-digit growth; steadily improve gross margin back towards c.50%; maintain EBITDA sustainably ahead of capex, interest, tax, and leases; reduce capex to 3-4% of sales; and deliver inventory of c.100 days.

Yeah I get that, however I think it will do the opposite from a sheer cash generative point of view. The company then becomes a cash printing machine with very low CAPEX. heading into the FTSE index around March aswell. Highly profitable company heading into the FTSE index (likely 250) and funds will buy in and investors will take it alot more seriously. There is always a bear case but the bull case here significantly outweighs the bear at this level imo.

They have the same shares Samb, just fallen through a % due to dilutionary affects of the placing.

These are the shares bought in the placing.

As said, let all this demerger wash out and see what happens then.. I firmly believe as others do this is the best thing to happen for THG in years.

Chill, stop fretting Roberto. :)

Got my placing shares now :)

Out of interest what are people's averages here? I fully expect a rerate here based off remain co xmas-into next year.

To be fair to applied nutrition, the free cashflow they are generating to year July 24 was £17 million. That's significant from its revenue of £80million.

£3-400million is probably a quite fair valuation I would say.

THGs remain co on the other hand free cashflow £70-80 million and valued at £6-700 million. I know which I'd rather invest in right now.

Not yet. I'm with HL.

Year end net debt expected to be back to where it was last year so c£220million or so. £100 or so million per company isn't bad at all.

Let the market play itself out but the way I see it is the company will be the most profitable/cash generative it has been and is more of a buy now for me than it has been for years.