Member Info for Simms45

Hawaii could drop any moment. Public consultation finishes mid July, state and government are all supportive and it is financed and ready to go. There is a stack of projects ripe for financial completion not to mention a brace in France. Considerable upside yet considerable risk.

Or just fundamentals. In 2027 we will clear easily $450m net cashlow once a full year of La India is in the bag. Today we are worth around $450m so not hard to see that if we generate that sort of free cash what size of dividend will be (bear in mind we have mo debt also today) and gold mines are pretty stable once operational. Gold price is anyones guess but most likely a lot higher than today.

Grocer1 we got your back. If PIs are smart and hold institutions etc will all have to pay proper price and im probably the most pessimistic at 25p but plenty of reasons we can go way way higher just on fundamentals today, let alone new ounces found. Someone is stake building as i was getting fixed quotes to 2m shares no so long ago. I suspect TR1s might land at some point. Drachs might also be stake building to reach 30%. Who knows a takeover might materialise while we are undervalued.

Well i said average 1p a month until first pour. I guess we could skip that and jump straight to 25p today. Im fine with that :) Plenty of people were jaded from Condor experience so they had come from a bad place and needed to reset as if you asked any Condor holder if we did get to production we were worth £500m in old money and probably £1bn based on new gold price so now we know its happening things are perking up naturally. Its obvious that subject to execution Darren is well on target for his own conservative valuation of $2bn and that is probably conservative as La India is probably 10m ounzes and 30 years of gold. People are just getting in wisely now and closing the gap quicker. So few bargain gold miners around in production in UK. nice momentum though and institutions are piling in by the looks of orders being placed. We could make the main market by next year and we will be in for fireworks!

I remember same nervous nellies talking about RR at £1.60 a pop and what a mistake they made taking a 2x profit over the 15x they could have taken today. So many investors dont sell the disasters and hope one day to recover losses while selling anything that starts to move. 9 times out of 10 correct decision was to exit loss making stock and pile into stock with underlying value and profit. I can only half adhere to this advice but learning.

Harry on 16th June in Q&A said

“ Lastly , the plan this year has been to have documentation ready by end June for launch to trigger upon certifications being completed as soon as possible from that date. ”

He also said update before AGM. If we assume documentation was ready by end of June then is it plausible this and certifications can be completed by the 20th? Certainly feel some news needs to happen prior to the 20th. If and when finance is trigger we have a $250m market cap as base case valuation . Wont happen overnight as do many nervous nellies around but over 3-6 months 5x from todays price subject to “cash in the bank” is a whole different story. Personally i really want to keep Saudi but if £50m offered today it might stop Harry from his death spiral of placings that has killed shareholder trust and created an almighty overhang. gla

Glad you’ve been listening to me and not sold up like so many ex condor shareholders for a pittance. Its incredible to think some ex condor shareholders held on to Condor for decades only to sell when we were finally about to realise value. Hopefully your one of the few who are going to 10x their investment and im looking forward to that drink you offered :) Just too many institutions and big pocketed investors buying in. All they do is wait for private investors to sell up and sadly miss the bigger rises ahead.

Well for one thing Northfork is in hot commissioning. I know it seems never ending but Greg has it down for this quarter to go live and DP alluded much the same although 2025. Hawaii also very close to being announced as funding and local community support all in place. I think DP has agreed the option for additional £1.5m from CWTL if one of other project is delayed significantly. I hope its a plan C but I am bullish on plenty of things but DP has badly let everyone down with poor cost control. Certainly there is massive upside on basis alone for Northfork. High risk but very high potential reward. gla

Key to remember is that we should be a minimum 25p when Nic starts up and that time is approaching fast. Investors see this alongside all other positive metrics and how board operate and its a quick question do you invest now and more than double money in a year with manageable risk or wait. Most investors can see that $450m net cashflow is available and dividends of $200m a year are not unlikely. All we are seeing is a long overdue re-rate and frankly when you look at other producers we are a long way behind based on quality of management. No reason not to suspect that investors place a premium and we go a lot higher as we Phillipines is ripe for a lot more expansion i suspect.

The big hoover continues. Hopefully they leave some shares for PIs as it looks every share sold is being gobbled up as we move onwards.

While not great i am sure given Compact GTL have just injected £1.5m that things are ticking over nicely but if they were not going to release they would have said so in advance as required by AIM and Compact would not have invested without due diligence. It will arrive probably later today but not unusual for companies last day. I also think because Compact investment was recent together with options etc they might have be restricted to release sooner. Hopefully the start of a long awaited re-rate!

All would have been sells but into Drachs or another big buyer. They are lurking and hoovering up everything. Put your Metals stock is a locked cupboard and dont come back for 16 months and you might be pleasantly surprised where we are. Mellon just cant handle being a small fish in a big pond and must be galling to see Darren do more in 5 months than Mellon achieved in 15 years!

MM who is acting for buyer has been slowly upping price as we have seen to try and get some pis to exit. Key is dont be tempted while we have major buyers. Price will take off soon but a long way to go!

Someone has for sometime had a big order book going on the background. if you care to look and have millions of shares at your disposal you can get a fixed price to sell. There are deep pocketed investors sniffing around here and certainly anything under 25p is daylight robbery.

Insiders like Drachs are diamond hands. Best holders of stock private investors could wish for. Come the day share buy backs announced is a day i look forward to. Ultimately buyers and sellers will meet at a price but Drachs and other insiders/institutions Re hungry so i suspect any private investor today selling is going to institutions who i sense are buying up anything we sell.

Good to see 11p being tickled and possible newsflow in coming week should take us higher so we close the massive gap on value but heading the right direction

As i understand Drachs could ask for exemption and go over 30%. Drachs are in this for long term returns. Mellon could easily sell his remaining holding into the market and i suspect he might be. Leave some of the spoils for other private investors to see multiple returns over next few years.

Just draw the line from now until 16 months of first pour in Nic and basic NPV will be realised and shows a shareprice between 25-50p so average of 1p a month likely. Key then is how around $450m will be distributed as if $200m could be returned to shareholders in dividends can easily move towards $2bn+ market cap as Darren is targeting. I am hoping for buy backs to reduce supply. Nice and steady!

Regardless of Iran we should see steady progress to 11p this week and as you have to draw a line between now and first pour in La India and by then we should be base price of 25p and with Abbra in play heading towards 50p so if you draw a line we should largely follow it over next 16 months or 1p a month as a base case rise over that time.

I think if Harry can get definitive agreements signed in August we get $10m out of that and can bill TKMG for servicew so potentially we have some cashflow. Then once market cap is around £250 whats £10m raise in thid scenario? Harry sadly has got us into this death spiral of placings and bucketshop selling but if he can for once put a cork in it, recognise his big mistakes in the way he is using placings too heavily and work out investors are not believing it is the last so holding back. This gives me hope when we do trigger project we will be cashflow positive for a period of time and Harry can pause the death spiral of placings.