Member Info for Simms45

Nice line in the report

“The combination of the La India project in Nicaragua and operations in the Philippines now charts a path for Metals Exploration to achieve approximately 400,000 ounces of gold p.a., an annual EBITDA of USD 800m from 2028, based on a gold margin of USD 2,000 per ounce.”

If Drachs has a good wind about Dupax then we are due a big re-rate. If we gey drilling and prove this up then we are talking $5bn+ market cap if $800m ebitda is possible for 10 years! Maybe Drachs has a better idea than us where we are heading. Could still be a 10x in Metals and then some!

Good buy. The big hoover continues and no end in sight but its looks a clear run to 20p if it continues. Plenty of news expected and Insiders like Drachs must have a better steer on prospects than we do. Follow the smart money!

This is a summary courtesy of Chatgpt. I think the best news is the 20 new domestic contracts signed in 2024 worth RMB 192M. This a pretty robust and could push us back to profitability 2025. There is a s recent agm where they agreed they might buy back shares subject to funds available. given the shareprice the market is not buying it until they see the interims released that i guess us probably a month or so from being reported.

Positive Indicators

Revenue Doubled: Sales rose from RMB 41.8M to 85.4M, largely driven by new contract wins, including from emerging segments like coal-to-ethanol and waste alcohol recycling.

Gross Profit Margin Recovery: Swung from a gross loss of -12.2% to a healthy 19.7% margin, signaling improved contract profitability.

Smaller Net Loss: Loss reduced by over 50%, helped by both rising revenues and a 53% reduction in credit impairment losses (i.e., better handling of bad debts).

Project Pipeline: 20 new domestic contracts signed in 2024 worth RMB 192M (vs RMB 68M in 2023), including major projects in Shaanxi, Hubei, and Xinjiang.

Focused R&D: Active investment in hydrogen production, ethanol from biomass, and smart equipment — aligning with China’s clean energy and “dual carbon” goals.

🚩 Risks and Concerns

Very Low Equity Base: Equity plummeted to just RMB 9.7M. This is dangerously thin for a business with RMB 266M in total assets — a red flag on solvency.

Net Current Liabilities Worsened: Now at RMB -59.4M, meaning short-term liabilities far exceed short-term assets. This presents a liquidity risk.

Ongoing Losses: Although improved, the company is still not profitable — and any macroeconomic or operational setback could quickly derail it.

Borrowings and Pledges: RMB 32.2M in borrowings (mostly due within a year) and assets are pledged to banks. This limits financing flexibility.

Legal Provision: A RMB 3.5M lawsuit provision was booked — indicating some risk in contract execution and customer relationships.

🔮 Outlook & Strategy

Sector Tailwinds: China’s ethanol demand may reach 12M tons by 2025 per the “14th Five-Year Plan”, which could fuel equipment demand.

Geographic Diversification: The company is exploring Southeast Asia, Brazil, and Europe for growth — leveraging price competitiveness of Chinese equipment.

Technology Differentiation: Investing in green and automated solutions to reduce customer reliance on single raw materials and improve energy efficiency.

Anyone tempted to buy in before the weekend? Could something materialise monday? AGM rapidly approaching!

A good chunk of shares changing hands from pis to Drachs/Institutions today. Another 1% day. Roll on monday for the push onwards. I think pis are rapidly shrinking so hopefully some pis will stick this out until the 50p party!

The Big hoover continues. Drachs is an investor so just looking to maximise return so no doubt will push this to 30% before the crowd. Given their stake he can already use the profit to build a bigger custom made yacht :)

Guys whats with all the doom and gloom? Something will drop between now and the AGM i am sure to perk enthusiasm. We all know Harrys mastery or bluster but the train momentum is too great. Currently there is a perfect storm of gold prices, EG, AFC and there is nothing out of place. Everyone wants to enjoy the fee bonanza so i do not doubt Harrys timeline this time. It was always not in his direct control but now he got away 2 bargain placings to all his close associates i am sure now is the time of delivery. Next Week 🤞

Nothing like a long squeeze as investors try and get in before the next leg up. There is more than just Drachs buying but they are not short of cash. His custom built £80m yacht in Monaco gives an idea so its chicken feed to them so no reason why they would not continue buying up to 30%. I suspect JM is out now but i am not sure Drachs was the buyer. Should see another TR1 in due course.

Seingred great to see your back. Never too late to buy back into Metals since you sold a long time ago. Seems my misplaced optimism in Metals has paid off so far but plenty further to climb as we jockey towards the FTSE 200. How has OMI fared these last 3 months?

Drachs is just one of the buyers as we have had far more afterhour trades that just those announced by Drachs today. Interesting times. If Drachs increases their stake to 30% they will need around 290m shares. we have been shifting around .75-1% a day recently so some serious hoovering. Feels like 20p is not far away!

The BIG hoover continues swapping out the weak kneed pis for institutional investor or someone able to pickup £1m a day and counting with no end in sight. If its a book building then i think a TR1 could be at a much higher shareholding and not just 3%. Once you reset and look at the asset and fundamentals and look at current and future cashflow i think investors are coming around to putting money into cash/profit creating companies as the future cashflow looks wild compared to current market cap. Way things are going no reason to not see out 20p soon and maybe background buyer will have popped up on the radar. Heavy buying again so far today and more pis robbed in daylight :)

And they will have access to huge borrowing, if they wanted as we are debt free, and other types of deals. The board are keen to not have to sell stock to realise value. They will wait for the takeover offer that is 5-10x todays price :)

Cash on a companies balsnce sheet is rarely valued into the market cap so while its true when a company goes ex dividend the share does drop but normally it has risen as dividend hunters move in prior. Key is yield is a key valuation for bigger companies and attracts pension funds. Also means you do not need to sell your holding to realise cash and live off dividends. I also like buy backs if stock is clearly undervalued, especially below net assets as it is creating value. If we could see 5p dividend then 10% yield would see us at minimum 50p. Anyway few years away and today all we need to know is a buyer has hoovered up £1m a day and i suspect that will continue as institutions get in before we hit the top 200 stocks. Gold miners have only just started to get valued and we have a long way to go as traditional business in UK are seeing profits fall in general. Gold miners are a stand out investment.

Good to see the late trades. Around £1m a day hoovered up into institutions hands. So far no end in sight but we should see a TR1 once they have pocked 3% or £12m or so. I can see 20p happening but its a lot to do about moving up the leader board on the FTSE. Darren eluded to dividends asap so 3-5p is not unlikely so can see why we have heavy buying as today that is up to a 25% yield at these levels.

Big buyers are lurking and hoping they can rob pis today. Momentum and trend is only going in one direction at the moment and its clear when someone drops £1m yesterday they are swapping out a lot of pis who will probably not ever get back in below the price they sold. I cant see institutions not expecting to acquire 10% combined of the company over coming 6 months and Metals are already depleted of pis. I think top 5 shareholders hsve over 60%. Leaves very little freefloat for institutions to fight over and just a question lf when PIs succumb.

We are still at the ground floor entry for many to invest as La India is 14 months away or so. I guess today we might have a little shake but plenty of buyers around so we will quickly churn over and background buyer will be looking to pickup the bargains.

We have a major buyer in the background. You can sell fixed price for 1-2m no problems all day long for last month and we are only just getting started. Buyers are queuing up to rob private investors. As someone has pointed out we are heading for top 200 UK companies and we are already on radar for institutions who are buying in prior to that. Anyone thinking of buying gold will do much better to leverage in Metals. When La India is properly counted we have 10m ounzes in Nic which is $35bn in the ground. You can buy for less than 1% of that today. Easy decision if you ask me.

If the BOD bought shares at this price i am sure investors would call them out as taking a stake at its very lowest point and i think it would be in bad taste. give share options based on share price targets of 5p and gets my vote to tie board to underlying value. I do understand what appears to be going on and i hope such information has been sent to the nomad as should it play out as you say and nomad did not act then they and palumbo could be targeted. Fortunately we do have good levels of cash and potential £1.5m should CWTL option get triggered so this takes us to March 2026. If we have not got any deal by then then i would not expect Eqtec to survive but Northfork is happening and that should unlock valuable equity we can sell or leverage. Hawaii and France are in play. Remember CWTL are simply taking on debt obligation so IP is far from safe as CWTL do not have large amounts of cash. Maybe if Eqtec shares go skyward CWTL can sell some of its stake at a profit and pay back the loan or something else. I wonder if CWTL might make a fortune and no doubt Palumbo as director of CWTL might get rich off the back of this. For now for are safe as auditor signed off on next year. Obviously i want to see deals happen before end of this year.

Obviously things are happening. Satellite images are correct. Question is whether in next 2 weeks we make real progress to secure equity investment. Harry is a past master of telling porkies about timescales but for me it has never been If its all been when and it has been a long time. July is a key month as he missed end of May/June when he previously said progress of equity sorted and now its July/August. Will this become Sept/Oct. You just never know with Harry sadly. If we get more meat on this i would put in a lot more cash but had money tied up here for years and i am under water so i just need to see real progress.

As expected a lot of trades showing post 430pn that a lot of stock moved from PIs to bigger pocketed investors, maybe institutions but definitely someone is buying with vigour. We are likely to see more movement next week as this buyer is relentless and accumulating at pace.