The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Got to say slightly better than expected with £10.8m PBT (exc. exceptional). Remember, for years this was £25m+. The report is rather opaque about lfl's and current trading, and the web/trade is going nowhere.
Mdunsire Not a betting man but then all shares are a gamble. Anyone with 5 mins, the back of a stamp and a permanent marker could work out that 6 months profits are fantasy. The increase in electric will be circa £6m pa. What you believe in the way of banks etc is meaningless. I deal in facts. Ignore at your peril.
mdunsire. There isn't the slightest chance of a profit for the 6 months, never mind £20m. The directors must be wondering what they have done to deserve this. Constant hammering by cost increases, combined with negative sales, lower margins and not a clue about the web. 20p here we come.
HeresHopin Your right. What was a good idea is not looking so great now. They tried to make out they had hedging in a recent presentation. Not very convincing. Think they must have been referring the to the greenery around their car park.
There is no such thing as rampers and derampers. Just opinions. Some based on knowledge. Some based on dreams.
Bazinator. You may be right about 'they have probably had words with the management of card n everything'. The combination of management spin, wet between the ears fund employees, and a company haemorrhaging profits, isn't likely to end well. I wonder who sold the 17m shares? Probably another fund manager that bought the story, did their due diligence, followed their strict internal rules, paid £3 per share, and threw away £40m of their clients money...
Bazinator. There isn't a chance of any due diligence being done. They are no different to any other shareholder, other than, that they gamble with other peoples money. They have no idea if the shares are 'cheap'. They aren't if they are 20p in a few months. Whoever sold the 17m shares perhaps knows best? Results day in September will be for the brave.
mdunsire. There isn't the slightest chance of any half year profits. Annualised profits I have said before are likely to be circa £20m. Does that justify the current share price? That's a matter of opinion. SP could easily halve at 6 month report time.
More 'this time next years' than in Peckam on this chat. Nothing surprising about SP going down. A business in decline, continues decline, with management failing to give forecasts, other than unrealistic dreams. The most amazing thing is how large shareholders put up with it and vote for more of the same. They know it is a disaster but just can't be bothered to get involved. They mentally right down the value and move onto to other more interesting opportunities. Other peoples money anyway...
Which is the most likely scenario:
A: A galaxy roaming spaceship, full of Martian I.T. specialists from the future, has landed in Wakefield, and offering to work for CF for free.
B: The board putting forward realistic figures for the next 3 years
C: Good news at the CF AGM
D:
95? Should be just right for the 100th to come live from the agm. Not that the management will have much to say. They haven’t even given an outlook for the current year that I can see. Still I don’t really need it. Mines more accurate.
There isn't the slightest chance of a return to 'normal' dividends here, or any dividends. Those days are long gone. No one should assume this share only has upsides. It is far more likely to halve than double.
Rox
The shares had already crashed to 80p or so before covid due to poor results.
Since then sales have fallen further and in a desperate attempt to help the top line, more diversification has taken place into sweets, stationery, books.. the list goes on. If you ae happy to invest in, what is being turned into a mini Woolworths, good luck, you will need it. I am constantly surprised how investors fall for management spin. Like lemmings they fall off a cliff...
The decline of CARD is comparable to watching a slow motion car crash. A stream of measures that all disguise the core issue, that of haemorrhaging card sales. Greeting cards l4l sales volumes are circa 40-50% down since floating.
Rox, Hi, I am not saying the business is bad. Just that market expectations are way too high and unrealistic. On top of that there is a consistent decline in sales and margins that there is no sign of the current management reversing. Therefore, any share price growth back to the old days is for the fairies. Much more likely to be 20p than £2. Maybe plenty of opportunity to make a few quid in the meantime but 20p is where it is heading.
Very complicated to see where CF moved the cash from. So many government bungs etc. The fact is, in the long run it has to come from net profit.