RE: RE rally over £1Sat 21:48One of the big things for me here is that there is absolutely no suggestion that there was any failure at stage 3 on sefety grounds. That is much harder address and correct. A failure at stage 3 on 'efficacy' grounds is easier to correct especially if we have a parallel study running.... Which we do!
The recent RNS update from the company stated some really promising advances in their understanding of the problem but the market has hammered them and has pre-priced in full failure. In my view we are way off a declaration of failure as multiple options are available.
We have the results of the Japanese study coming up, which will likely be altered to guard against any weaknesses. We also have the option of a re-trial on a different formulation if necessary. It may be that the company can establish from the phase 3 trials that the drug works especially well in certain identifiable people.... Which given the scale of the ARDS problem may well still constitute a commercial scale market. We could also get regulators to agree to a different effecacy threshold for certification.... Especially as there is no alternative drug available.
The numerous directors and friends buying in is clearly sending a message. We are nowhere near dead in the water with Traukamine and although this is an annoying hiccup, it is not the end... Not even the beginning of the end..... It is simply the end of the beginning and a major opportunity for investors. Hell even the II's who derisked over the last fortnight have retained sizeable holdings...... DYOR
One of the big things for me here is that there is absolutely no suggestion that there was any failure at stage 3 on sefety grounds. That is much harder address and correct. A failure at stage 3 on 'efficacy' grounds is easier to correct especially if we have a parallel study running.... Which we do! The recent RNS update from the company stated some really promising advances in their understanding of the problem but the market has hammered them and has pre-priced in full failure. In my view we are way off a declaration of failure as multiple options are available. We have the results of the Japanese study coming up, which will likely be altered to guard against any weaknesses. We also have the option of a re-trial on a different formulation if necessary. It may be that the company can establish from the phase 3 trials that the drug works especially well in certain identifiable people.... Which given the scale of the ARDS problem may well still constitute a commercial scale market. We could also get regulators to agree to a different effecacy threshold for certification.... Especially as there is no alternative drug available. The numerous directors and friends buying in is clearly sending a message. We are nowhere near dead in the water with Traukamine and although this is an annoying hiccup, it is not the end... Not even the beginning of the end..... It is simply the end of the beginning and a major opportunity for investors. Hell even the II's who derisked over the last fortnight have retained sizeable holdings...... DYOR
Interesting turn of events here. I was in a with a small holding a while back at around 1.10 and sold out at 118p and have been monitoring events and researching. Back in here now at 68p with nearly 8k shares and aiming to achieve a holding of 10k shares shortly. For me, the downside and future risk of total failure of Traukamine is fully priced in here... And then some! If you research pharma failures at stage 3 you will discover a wealth of information and research on this area. According to a 2016 study, only around 50% to 60% of phase 3 trials which have successfully completed phase 1 and 2 are successful. This poor performance across the industry as a whole is thought to be largely down to either poor understanding of significance / probability as well as weaknesses in the test design which can induce false positives within the placebo cohort due to a degree of perceived benefit in patients mentality. Basically, a certain number of the placebo patients may have received a health benefit from 'positive thought' which has swung the results. Its not as daft as it sounds and is an increasingly recognised weakness of phase 3 testing. The good news is it can be accounted for and mitigated in test design and analysis. I should think the BOD is focusing on a) reworking the statistical analysis of the recent results and b) adjusting the Japanese trial to take these factors into account
Interesting to note that throughout the early morning sells outweighed buys by 2:1 but now, following the bulk of the AGM, buys now outweigh sells by over 2:1. To me this is a clear indication that the AGM was positive and restored faith in many present. I think there was caution and reservation beforehand but the outlook and sentiment has turned to the positive. Will be interesting to get the official note and the forthcoming press write-up on the detail.
That's a nice £37k trade for just over 50,000 shares just gone through at 74p. Looks like someone likes whats being said at the AGM. Good sign of confidence in my view.
I also like to see the BOD taking very reasonable renumeration salaries here. 32 to 35k each as a basic salary is peanuts and shows that they are prioritising cash retention. Looks like we are well funded for the next 7 to 9 months to advance the products. Worth risking a drop to 80p in my view based on near term potential. ATB
Evening all, I dropped in this afternoon for 4000 shares at 111.7p. Interesting to read the board and the previous RNSs. I like to see directors putting their money where their mouth is and buying shares at a premium. Could do with more of that at this uncertain time. Interesting to that the institutional investors have remained here despite the phase 3 disappointment. Derisked somewhat for sure but still have a significant exposure. They either have received assurances from the BOD and/or see significant potential in the other product runs.
I'd ease off a bit if I were you djryan - you are starting to look like a bit of a fool to be honest. Stick to evidenced comments and observations about the company. There really is plenty to discuss and research about GGP. Lets not waste our time and energy on personal pot shots - that's not going to make anyone any money is it! Back to my day job now....... yes I do have one (9-5, 5 days a week) ATB
That's a good strategy there in my opinion Stuartw6040 - I've been there myself with other shares being caught without a chair when the music stops and over time it makes you rightly cautious and grateful for the regular incremental wins. Leaving some skin in the game and trading the rest often gives the best exposure to a shares potential whilst managing your personal risk. Why not cover both bases! I have a feeling GGP are onto something but they are not there yet. Personally I do not see why the only people guaranteed to make money out of these types of companies need to be the BOD on salaries and the MMs siphoning off PIs as they keep engineering these little SP whirlwinds. You've got to make your own opportunities in this life. Best of luck to all - whatever your strategy
In my view this looks very much like a repeat of the mini-spike which last occurred on the 24th May fueled by speculation and sentiment as we approach the next exploration campaign RNS. Unless we get some positive news within 24-48 hours this will retrace again to the 0.6 - 0.63 level.
Hi Mike31, I bought back in today on the slight drop on open as this came close to hitting my target entry price. I paid slightly over but it was close enough for me. Having reviewed all the RNSs over the last few years together with looking into GHs background and the geology of our licence areas in more detail, I feel 0.61p was a fair price to pay. I have held some back incase it retraces further however I has happy with that level of exposure at this point. I do have concerns over some areas of the company, as mentioned in previous posts, and have contacted GH for further clarification on these. ATB.