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Agreed - but I reckon the CEO already knows which was it is heading.
The trials monitor patients on the drug over a set period with final reporting and analysis at the end however there will certainly be several review and measurement points during the trial. I would infer that they are seeing a positive response so far as the basis for his interview statement.
On the question of Partnership talks to develop Traukamine on the back of the YODA trial (due Q4 18)....
CEO - 'We have been in discussion with several potential partners even prior to the failed P3 trial. They said to us, if you can explain why the test failed then please come back to us'
Andrew Scott - (Anticipating the imminent results of the YODA trial) - 'So you hope to be in a position to go back to them soon?'
CEO - 'We already have'.... (with a little smile)
............
The YODA trial is already completed and FARN are currently analyising the data - due for release by Christmas 2018. In my view the YODA trial was successful in answering the only question it was tasked with addressing - and has established that the steroids have impacted the Traukamine efficacy in the previous P3 trial.
This CEO is quite cautious and would not be happy to confirm that partner discussions are back on in an interview like that unless he was satisfied that the YODA trial supports Traukamine.
I have bought in heavily (for me) on the back of this interview, as for me this is a big giveaway and with news on several fronts just around the corner, this is a gift at this level.
As the saying goes, there are three ways of making money in the markets;
1. Cheat
2. Be Fast
3. Be First
Personally I don't do (1), I have a day job and cannot watch this every minute of every day to be (2) so I opt to be first and get in now and wait.....
GLA
Mickyc333,
There are some very interesting articles and papers examining current research into the reasons why Phase 3 drug trials fail. See the following link if interested:
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nuventra.com/resources/blog/placebo-response-phase-3-failures/&ved=2ahUKEwjEh4PUwObeAhXlAcAKHbY6APgQFjALegQICRAB&usg=AOvVaw3HBVjZ-iy4W7PRXGK52Ba0
Most of the research being carried out is looking at why 40 to 50% of P3 trials fail when by rights it should be much less as P3 is really just final confirmatory testing. The results indicate that of the 'efficacy' failures (of thich Farn has suffered earlier this year), most are attributed to placebo response. This can be either as a result of intangible health benefits gained from the patient thinking positively about their situation because they believe they are being treated with a revolutionary drug (difficult to quantify) or simply as a result of a clash with other medication within the test cohort (easier to quantitify).
Fortunately, it seems that Farn believes that the later is at play here for a variety of reasons. If they are correct and can successfully design out the steroid effects as part of the Yoda trial then it will be conclusive evidence that Traukamine works effectively and that they fully understand the issues with the previous test. It would be a lot harder to disprove if they were attributing the failure to the 'positive mindset' effect of the treatment.
I completely agree that Clevedon is not at all priced in at this stage.
Massively undervalued as a stock at present levels and easily due a re-rate on expectation / sentiment alone soon.
I know.... I really don't know what the MMs are playing at with this stock. Based on the previous RNS and taking into account typical monthly cash burn from the accounts, by my reckoning FARN have around 8 to 10 million cash in the bank as a worst case estimate. At current levels that accounts for nearly 50% of the MCap!!
So the market is only attributing 10 million quid of value to the entire current portfolio of products currently under development by FARN. Come on! Pull the other one!
I think the market is struggling to understand the nature of the products and the potential scale of the market upon successful development. That for me presents a serious opportunity as a value investor.
One look at the chart for this and it is clear that this is way way undervalued at present. With the BOD heavily invested and the mountain of research already banked on several product fronts, the MCap is an absolute joke. I agree lots have bailed to chase other rainbows but from this level this is a coiled spring and one whiff of either a partner or anything even mildly positive on the Japanese test front and this will go ballistic.
I would say you could easily get a 20 to 30% spike here simply if an RNS landed with 'test update' in the title - regardless of the detail - it really is that volatile but essentially the market is not pricing in much to the current valuation.
Strong buy is putting it mildly....... Absolute steal at this level.
ATB
Just noticed that the SP has become quite sensitive to buys just now and the MMs have not only raised it on relatively small buys but have radically changed their buying volumes. Previously over the last week or 2 they would not take more than 1-2 million but now they will take 9+ million in one go.
I feel a change in direction coming here - possibly in response to the recent increase in BCN / EMH share price.
Questions being asked in the UK parliament about whether to introduce the UK vehicle fuels ban 8 years early........
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45899580
On another point, I was reading the FT article on Bacanora yesterday which was a bit of very welcome publicity / fund hunting..... Over half the Sonora open cast mine development and build costs already secured (with a significant investment from the Chinese). They need another 200m investment to get it going and the company has already said it would be willing to raise 100m through an equity issue when market conditions improve....
In reality, I think that 200m will be secured by direct investment through further cornerstone companies in the near future, especially if the roll out of EV vehicles is likely to be accelerated. Strategic investors could easily get 6-8 years shaved off their wait for a return on their investment if this goes ahead.
That last post was meant to say that lithium-based battery life is significantly increased from 3-4 years (for LiPO) to 6-7+ years for LiFE.
It the present time, there is no available data to prove how long Graphite based batteries will last in day-to day operation.
It is also worth pointing out that the safety problems associated with Li-ion and LiPO batteries (fires) have largely been ironed out now after the high-profile teething problems associated with the first-generation electric cars and aircraft such as the Boeing 777.
Modern industrial and commercial LiPO battery design typically integrates over charge/ over discharge protection into the physical battery and there is a much better understanding of effective heat dissipation from batteries during discharge. The next few years will see the widespread adoption of LiFE technology as the second generation of Lithium energy storage. LiFE technology offers significantly improved energy density together with greatly improved discharge and charge rates compared to LiPO. As LiFE batteries operate at a slightly lower voltage, they are inherently more stable and this stability is improved by using a Graphite anode instead of a metallic one.
Also, one of the key improvements with LiFE technology compared with LiPO is that the number of charge / discharge cycles is significasntly increased from 3-4 years (for LiPO) to 6-7+ years for LiFE which significantly de-risks the long term costs of electric car ownership and will go a long way to promote this to the wider vehicle market.
Go Lithium!
It is true that much research is being done towards advancing the feasibility studies into graphite batteries. However, currently this research is at best about 10 years behind lithium battery technology and whilst the concept looks promising, the industrial feasibility of the technology is a long way off being proven.
Whilst Graphite as a group material is relatively abundant, sourcing the right kind of Graphite is a problem and purity is key. Natural flake Graphite costs around $7,000 and $12,000 per metric ton however the scarcity of this material means that synthetic Graphite will be needed to meet future demands if the technology is taken forwards - this costs anywhere from $15,000 and $20,000 per ton making the savings over Lithium negligible.
In the short to medium term, to meet current (growing) industry demand for the next 5-6 years+, Lithium batteries are the ONLY way to go. Tesla yesterday signed a contract for a giga factory in China which is expected to up electric car production from 300,000 cars per annum to over 500,000 within 2-3 years.
In the long term, for strategic diversification reasons, even if Graphite technology is feasible and catches up, it is likely that overall battery production will even out 50/50 between Lithium and Graphite until either one commodity becomes substantially cheaper than the other, or the ACHIEVED energy densities of the two materials are so different, they are impossible to ignore.
Go Lithium!
Agree with that. The BOD could do with using their influence as significant shareholders in the various projects to identify JV opportunities. I think they are startng to be more proactive and I have recently seen Kiran be more vocal about the projects on various forums. I think he wants to act as a facilitator and not just an investor and I sense that he is annoyed that the market is taking such a pessimistic view at the moment. Ultimately it is agreed funding and lending packages which will unlock these projects and Kiran is well aware of it.
I think he known more than he is able to say. He clearly points to expected deals being secured against at least one of not two projects within 6 months during the August Q & A. I think he would not put his neck on the line there without good reason. There is definitely things going on in the background here.
Also, Kieran has done a good job as FD over at UKOG unlocking funding packages there which are now baring fruit despite earlier criticism. I think he is well placed to work those contacts in this context. He did manage to restructure KDNCs finance recently on pretty favourable terms (9% pa) with a payment holiday until 2019. The lenders would have required reasonable grounds for assurance to offer those terms. More than just projected future graphs in a presentation I would wager.....
Strong buy here at these levels
Sharealot,
True the BOD did not come up with, and volunteer themselves for, the share purchase scheme but they did heed the point which was made by investors and they didn't have to. As much as I like UKOG for example, I don't see SS investing a penny of his own in the game. He gets hammered about it every time the SP drops, as it did for several months earlier this year, and then it all goes quiet again when the SP is on its uppers.
I do feel for LTHs here as the past year has been a read drain but that is not uncommon for companies with projects that are between exploration and feasibility stage. The initial hype and excitement is over and people grow impatient waiting for the real work which underpins the commercialisation of the project to be completed.
The current SP has been overly downgraded by the market in my view. Whether you are a LTH or a newbie, there is clearly short term headroom here for a 15 to 20% rise on very little. It will likely be very sensitive to any forthcoming newsflow and there are several potentially very good announcements coming in the next few weeks and months.
In the longer term, I very much think that KDNC is in a strong strategic position. The adoption of LiPo and LiFE batteries is going one way and KDNC are covering all available bases.
Patience
Afternoon All,
Interesting times here with IGG at the moment. My view is that whilst the new regulatory changes put pressure on the whole sector, it will help legitimize the whole business model and could well protect companies like IGG in the future against a PPI-type claim scenario.
In terms of the timing of recent news I don't mind the CEO choosing to go on ex-div day. It offers a good opportunity to get all the bad news out of the way in one hit and creates a good opportunity for those in the know - of which I am sure there will be many! IGG is by nature highly speculative so I would be knocked off my feet if 'friends' were not in the know for an easy entry point.
Personally I do not believe the nonsense being spouted about the company and the wider sector going to crash - its just again speculative fear mongering to exploit the recent dip. This business has consistently generated huge revenues and exponential growth by exploiting the relative unregulated system and has an excellent market position. True the business will need to adapt to find new ways of operating as effectively in the new regulatory environment, but adapt it certainly will.
The new regulations have been a long time coming and we know that IGG has been actively developing new compliant products to operate in this new environment. This will stabilise here soon and we will see a decent recovery here as new products are rolled out and a new CEO with a prooven background is announced.
Strong Buy right now........
Looks like we may have a bit of movement here soon. Some good chunky buys going through this afternoon possibly on the back of rumours of a disposal announcement going around. The word on the street is that Debbie has been really drilling down into the inefficiencies at IRV particularly in their systems and processes and has cleared out a lot of dead wood.
With the financial stability package agreed until 2021 and the recent internal confirmation that they are on course to fulfil their obligations to the lenders, I think we are likely to see stability here and any announcement is likely to generate a nice little rise. A lot of negative sentiment and caution has been factored in here and I think that the market has not quite realised that the situation has actually stabilized / improved somewhat.
Yet another trading session where total buys have exceeded sells (by 10m or approx 75%) and we find the SP down on the day...... Flies in the face of financial physics and this is by far a one off so there must be an outside influence operating here......
Good afternoon all,
Just looked in, in time to see that nice round £20k buy pop up....... fancy the chances of getting that price hey! Especially after the several big round £15k buys yesterday What luck!
If you believe that you will believe anything!
Exciting times cometh here for sure! Have a great weekend all :)
GLA
RR: That largely depends on your position. The MMs are not our friends and are not out to help us. At the moment they are keeping the SP in a range and allowing pressure to build in anticipation of a rise probably. We can benefit off the back of this if we recognize it for what it is and try not to play into their hands by doing anything rash or stupid.
Depending upon the size of the accumulation and the news flow, at some point they are going to have to start fishing for shares slightly higher up. They probably wont make it obvious but it will in all probability happen.
The MMs are at the mercy of the company to some extent and will have to react to whatever news is released as we all will. However, I see them getting their ducks lined up and in an optimum position in advance. Could be a very interesting few days and weeks ahead!
GLA
There are very few coincidences in this world.......... This is not one of them!!!
GLA
Offtheball,
Yes in this particular situation I do view the recent activity as a positive. I do try to always consider alternative explanations but what I see here is a stock which is fundamentally undervalued.
The company is slightly mistrusted and still reeling from a short-term lack of sentiment and suspicion (due to the knee-jerk reaction of rainbow chasers on UD-2). However that company is in a good strategic position, with heavily invested BOD, with producing assets and near-term development of operations. It is actively paying down its debt directly from revenue and has funding secured for the next stage of field development.
The current SP has been hammered but is being purposely held here, against the weight of market activity. If left free to react to the trading we would be seeing more fluctuations and movements. The SP is in such a tight range that is totally un-natural for the trading we are seeing recently.
In short, I believe the available evidence indicates that this is being played. News is due soon and could go either way but the SP is pre-positioned on the side of bad news so therefore the potential upside on good news is enhanced and the resulting downside on bad news is minimised. The risk here cannot event be called binary as the overall risk is spread over T-39, T-45, Dino and Niko and is therefore hedged which will appeal to professional investors.