Member Info for Shedulike

I'm hoping that test trench means the geotech has located the optimum site for the plant and they're testing footings. If that's the case the big question is why has the resource drilling not been initiated (expected start early March). Okay there's a Doomsday scenario which might have something to do with impending insolvency but what if it just isn't necessary anymore, what might that mean? I do know that if it starts it will be RNS'd so I'm certain that as of now they haven't launched into it, really feels like an inflexion point imminent.

Mm's I think with email a lot depends on when it lands, if he's busy you could be behind another 50 before he starts tackling them. LR was definitely more expansive than MC though you're right. What MC is or isn't good at is really a bit of a mystery for me, as when LR was around he seemed to be doing everything. That's not to say MC wasn't sharing the burden there's just no way of us knowing whether the geological work was shared. To be fair just because LR was front of house doesn't mean MC wasn't pulling his weight. I used to email MC very occasionally when LR was around just to see if a different view was enlightening and to be honest he was always on message and informative about technical matters so I always assumed the load was shared between them, the remuneration would suggest that to have been the case as well.

Grappa if you had Laurence's it's kind of logical what Myles' is if that makes sense?

I would try his own email, he usually replies I find but very guarded on anything potentially price sensitive.

I posted this on the 18th which IMO, on the evidence I can find goes someway to explaining the situation in the zinc market....... "I don't think there's much debate about this - it's (the current dramatic spike) due to increased competition for dwindling stocks of physical zinc with the smelters cutting back. I guess if anything there could be a glut of zinc ore if things ever get back to normal in the energy markets as it's not being processed in the usual quantities. I don't however foresee a crash in the zinc price as there is strong underlying demand, the price was moving well in the right direction before the energy crisis caused this sudden spike. I think Europe are going to have to massively increase investment in wind energy particularly offshore, it's a proven technology and we can't wait for nuclear to catch up (Hinkley is looking like it will have taken ten years by the time it's commissioned). The US reached a landmark in March with wind power producing more energy than nuclear and gas so we know it can have a big impact. So lot's of long term demand for zinc in the green energy revolution but for sure it's in everyone's interests for this runaway market to be back under control. Something on the future for zinc here:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/04/zinc-low-carbon-economy-construction/

12.75p! Yes I'm sure they did and I'm sure they did at 5p but nothing is certain in exploration investment and they got it wrong just like us amateurs. What I would love to know is the conversation that was had over the 5p placing, I don't believe they would just gamble thinking it's been a bad investment but sod it let's chuck in some more of our clients money on the off-chance of a miracle. Progressively lower placings is bad for us and unless there is a turnaround at some point it is ultimately bad for DB, though I recall they did de-risk their initial investment at a profit in Sep 19. So logically they must have a degree of confidence in the operational achievements and have seen something in the strategy that convinced them the cycle can be broken and the same applies to Bennelong IMO, I just don't see their motive for participating however large or small the latest tranche was, unless they had a reasonable expectation that the value in the asset can at last be realised. While I strongly believe that to be true I'm 100% aware that there is a risk that those institutions along with us will again end up disappointed.

Grappa I agree the SP is a worry (as ever) but I don't think Myles will be elsewhere. He is Non-Exec at Katoro so probably does as much for them as Evan Kirby does for us. I am concerned about why the resource drilling is over a month late based on the most recent timescale given. Most likely an overrun on the geotech but worst case is we have overspent and can't go ahead. I'm slightly reassured that SPI are a technological partner so share an interest in getting the required drilling done to complete the project. Certainly I believe we are entering a critical juncture and we're going to find out if the long awaited non equity dilutive funding first mentioned in Dec 19 is a reality or not.

Mm's, total resource of 20Mt following the work in the shallow low grade area.

I don't think there's much debate about this - it's due to increased competition for dwindling stocks of physical zinc with the smelters cutting back. I guess if anything there could be a glut of zinc ore if things ever get back to normal in the energy markets as it's not being processed in the usual quantities. I don't however foresee a crash in the zinc price as there is strong underlying demand, the price was moving well in the right direction before the energy crisis caused this sudden spike. I think Europe are going to have to massively increase investment in wind energy particularly offshore, it's a proven technology and we can't wait for nuclear to catch up (Hinkley is looking like it will have taken ten years by the time it's commissioned). The US reached a landmark in March with wind power producing more energy than nuclear and gas so we know it can have a big impact. So lot's of long term demand for zinc in the green energy revolution but for sure it's in everyone's interests for this runaway market to be back under control. Something on the future for zinc here:
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/04/zinc-low-carbon-economy-construction/

Thanks Mm's - I'll have a look at that later.

Mm's as I understand it Zinc is particularly energy intensive to smelt due to dependence on coking coal, I'm not certain that gas is even a viable alternative. It also needs a lot of grid power which could come from renewables if and when available but the problem at the moment is even if you could get it all from renewables the cost is too great to making the operation profitable enough. There was talk of a regional green smelter at one of those Mayor events, what that actually means I don't know, just a greater % of power from renewables or technology to avoid the use of fossil fuels? Anyway on the Zinc price I think we should be encouraged that the underlying trend is up and analyst forecasts good but this extreme rise needs to ease off. Right now my main concern is what happened to the resource drilling programme (due to start early March) and if it has been cancelled, why?

The market has always been strange with EUZ Milnrow, any good corp news and this will go nuts as the MM's never seem to have stock when demand comes on. I'm wondering if the question of what happened to the resource drilling could hold the key to this. Worst case scenario we burnt too much cash on the geotech and can't afford the planned limited resource campaign, mid case we have a partner and are re-designing a more ambitious set of drills, best case the geotech proved the last hoop to jump through and someone else is taking over making the resource drilling pointless, remaining cash goes into the pot for new projects along with the £100m which Glencore had to stump up after fighting it out with BHP :)

CHRI5P I think we have to be a little bit careful about celebrating the price of Zinc, if they're reducing smelter output is there a danger of there being a glut of ore once energy prices (hopefully) get back to normal? Still I think there should be more stable drivers to the spot price, this Russian crisis should jolt wind farm construction into overdrive in Europe for a start. What I don't understand is shouldn't market forces dictate that with the price so high I would have thought the smelters would go back to full production despite the high cost of energy?

Ha ha probably Pete, just trying to work out if this SP is the opportunity of a lifetime or whether we're about to get another bombshell. I know Elena is unlikely to give too much away but 10 minutes is quite a substantial slot on the radio. Trouble is she seems to talk faster and faster but I do think an accomplished native translator could pick up some interesting snippets. Certainly appears that the public relations has pointed more towards Spain since LR left, as ever what that means in terms of our outcome is debatable.

Ten minute interview with Elena Feito our Communications Manager on Spanish Radio:
https://cadenaser.com/2022/02/21/nueva-mineria-proyecto-toral/ from 21st Feb.
Can anyone get a good translation? My schoolboy Spanish is way short of meaningfully translating this.

Crikey Zinc is now an incredible 67% or two thirds higher than the figures in the Bara report. Some caution as the main driver in recent months is not a shortage of zinc ore in itself but smelters reducing production of the finished product. Still there are other factors that should underpin demand in a sustainable manner, zinc is starting to get a toe hold in the battery market (see Zinc-Air) and I thought this was interesting showing zinc considered a critical metal in the US particularly due to the green energy drive:
https://www.mining.com/web/the-50-minerals-critical-to-us-security/

I can't imagine that there's no work taking place, there's about nine Spanish staff out there. Thinking it through they RNS'd that the Geotech commenced so if that hasn't happened we should be told. I'd be very surprised if that was the case because someone asked for it. The resource drilling should have started early March and I'm a bit more worried as to why we haven't heard about that yet though as Bricks says we have the CDTI money which should be allocated for that. We need to do the drilling to get the third tranche and as there are partners with a stake in the technological enterprise I'm reasonably confident that it should go ahead. Myles does seem to have a different approach to comms though I'm not sure why we can't have a Tweet of the rig in action. Perhaps they want to keep prospective plant locations under their hat for now due to local sensitivities?

Morning Bricks, there are historical adits at Toral so I assumed it was Toral. Maybe reading too much into it but I was slightly intrigued as to why that picture is so small compared to the others, probably just the vagaries of the internet.

Bricks yes you're right I must admit I was completely overlooking the CDTI funds when I wrote that, the only issue if there is a problem with using up extra funds on drilling consumables is that we have to complete the stage 2 work and meet the criteria of the innovation programme in order to get the third tranche. I guess it's a case of how much funds have been preserved from the second tranche. SPI drilling have a stake in the innovation programme so hopefully they'll go easy on us I just worry about how the energy crisis is impacting costs in the field.

Bricks I've always assumed that securing new projects would only happen either as part of a transaction on Toral or following it. I know that the new opportunities is mentioned in the same breath as 'use of proceeds' but I'm guessing they want to keep their cards close to their chest on what the plans for Toral are. There's no way I can see that we have the cash to secure anything worthwhile let alone develop it. I feel like something is going on, how can they RNS on 23rd Feb that resource drilling would start early in March only for it not to happen? That's basically saying that the resource drilling would start in two weeks time, now over four weeks after it was due we've still heard nothing. So what are the possibilities? They have completed the geotech only to find that nowhere is suitable for the plant and interested parties pull out, they have completed the geotech and satisfied interested parties that the ground conditions are good, everyone's happy and no need to proceed with resource drilling. Could spiralling fuel costs mean that the geotech went over budget and we can't do the resource programme? Not sure where I'd place my chips - no news is usually bad news around here so are we to get the bombshell that final drilling isn't possible, has it just been delayed or have they just not told us. I am intrigued at WHI paying us a visit though, evidently it wasn't to help produce some wonderfully detailed research :)