Member Info for Sharpey

Why do the Yanks always try to tank silver at the bell??!! By closing time it'll be back where it started! But Fres is down because people in London panic about the first couple of hours of silver tanking. I wouldn't mind if Fres went up in the morning to reflect the silver price in the morning and over night in Shanghai. But it never does!

@davey50 - Agreed. Very odd this has dropped over 40% in six months. They're making £1.8m EBITDA per year. A normal valuation of 10 P/E we should be on £18m not £3.72m. Crazy!!!

@Autonomy1 - You're looking at this the wrong way around.

As outlined in their latest preliminary results for the year ended 31 December 2025, Fresnillo sold silver at an average realized price of US$43.6 per ounce. Silver hasn't really dropped below $70 per ounce, and was above this for a significant period, this calendar year. So that means 62% higher revenue which will be even higher increase in profits as most of their costs are fixed costs. Profit for 2025 was about £2bn. So I'm expecting about £3bn profit forecast for 2026 in the next report. Current mcap is £23bn. So £3bn profit with a £23bn mcap is only 7.3, which is very low. Hence my view this is very undervalued!

Today is typical. All relatively fine. Then NY opens at 2pm, attacks on silver commence, it falls, people in London wet their pants and sell Fres, then NY attack on silver falls flat, Fres rebounds but not enough so not back to where it was before 2pm. We're down 2.22% but silver is only down 0.3% now!!! This should recover tomorrow but will traders think NY will attack silver again so they'll not buy back in??!!

Strong message from the Chairman confirming £1.94bn in profit. So current share price means a P/E ratio of 13. So really low imo! The only justification for this would be the market thinking pm prices will collapse soon. Very unlikely imo!

@TungstenInvestor - they've issued shares at 0.77p so clearly the people that bought those shares believe this is massively undervalued.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/tooru-reports-accelerating-revenues-operating-061800464.html

I agree. Totally undervalued!

80m onces of silver times $50 is $4.1bn. That's profit because their cost of production is about $17 an ounce. That's about £3.2bn! Just silver!!! MCAP is £26bn. That's 8 P/E ratio. Normal P/E ratio for a miner is 15-20, could be 25. Well undervalued, unless I’ve got my numbers wrong!

This always dips at 2:30pm when Wall Street opens. Why? Yanks can trade this anytime London is open.

Fresnillo gets a about 75% of energy needs from renewables so it's protected more than most from sky rocketing fossil fuel prices.

Finally. Someone posted listing would happen St Patrick's day!

Seems like some people want to liquidate their assets because of the uncertainty caused by the US/Israeli war against Iran. I remember at times like this that it's only a very small minority selling - volumes are a very small % of total shares in issue so the vast majority are holding.

It seems incapable of breaking 1.5p. Funny how traders get fixated on psychologically significant numbers.

Fresnillo plc consumed 77.8% of its electricity from renewable sources in 2025 so not a huge impact from rising oil and gas prices.

https://www.fresnilloplc.com/media/zxbdjylm/030326-fres-fy25-prelims-report.pdf

Can someone please give tell me when the Nasdaq listing is happening?

-25% spread is very unusual. In a normal market this would signify a big jump in price. Who would sell below the price you're being offered 🤔🤷‍♂️😕

The problem is the market is too forward facing. It believes the silver price will crash to its usual price of $40 an ounce so it's valuing Fres based on that forward looking price.

The current share price only makes sense if you think gold and silver will crash 50% and stay there. Possible, but pretty unlikely in my view. I'd give that scenario a 10% probability rating. I'm trying to be patient. Eventually the market will wake up.

Today results had:

Silver: The average realised price rose by 51.4% to US$43.6 per ounce.

Gold: The average realised price increased by 44.0% to US$3,532.7 per ounce.

If the average price of silver is today’s price, about $80, then that’s $2.78bn PROFIT. If the average price of gold is today's price, $5k an ounce, then that’s $1.8bn PROFIT. Plus $800m from the Canadian mine. That's $5.38bn or £4bn. That's a 7 PE ratio on current share price. Miners should be 15-25 PE ratio.

So if you think PM prices will stay the same or go higher then Fres is still undervalued. If you think PM prices will crash then this is overvalued. It's as simple as that!

Very informative @Burt777. It explains what happened very well. That's why I now just invest in miners not metal ETFs.