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Well Siemens, Marnavi and whoever are putting up the money seem to think they can get a deal or several over the line......
MRPlumper...... for once here, what’s happening couldn’t be made clearer from the last RNS. SPV set up (they have had over a month already) ,finance (which we were told is ready once the SPV set up) , 2 priority projects once finance and SPV in place. For once we have a clear plan to a near term delivery... and not just rumours.
PCloud.... that quote about open offer perhaps you should read I to what that means......
The withdrawal deadline is for those wishing to remove their entitlement from crest into paper form. It has nothing to do with the OO being cancelled.
I think they might just wait for the value adding GTW projects that are just around the corner
Perhaps people can be forgiven for having that opinion. For me there is an investible strategy and an investible company here with high growth potential. Once they get the first deal done, they will not be at the mercy of the brokers any more. I've said before, that investors need to accept that they remain in the development stage for much longer and have not yet reached the closure stage. That isn't to say that will not happen, and the potential to build something substantial here has grown, they are now telling us exactly how a project will be financed and they are telling us that the structure is being finalised to progress two projects. The biggest mistake people could make is holding for all this time through development, seeing the company deliver the first deal, and then missing out on substantial long term growth. This investment has been painful. Very painful. And it has had all the demons that investors in AIM companies have to deal with. But the current valuation enables very high returns from this level.
I think the focus on GTW is because they genuinely believe in its ability to generate multiple projects and get them over the line and they can lead the market in that. Some of this may be driven or accelerated because of developments in the industry, for example the drive for cleaner energy, the closure of gas terminals meaning assets are decommissioned early, the ongoing and fast increasing decommissioning problem in the North Sea. It's so difficult for small companies to raise significant finance, and they appear to have found a way to do it appropriately. I think they have more control as well in terms of driving it forward. The Brazil deal must be so much more complicated. And the fact is there might be more return in focusing on GTW rather than Brazil. Brazil is a one off project, that could well open the door for other projects, but delivery of the GTW concept and taking that live, is a repeatable business model, and a handful of these projects would be a really big deal. I really think people are unsure of the value of GTW, and the SPV 30% equity has confused people. This is why i think details of the upfront purchase cost will be crucial and may well provide the catalyst for a very sharp re rate. SPV RNS a month ago now.... come on NUOG time to prove your doubters wrong.
A couple of things....
Open Offer: I am still of the opinion that the timing of the open offer is intended to make it more beneficial to us, by bringing in the offering of value adding news. The deadline is 2nd May for the Open Offer, of course our brokers have their own earlier deadlines. The latest I have seen is 30th April. So if indeed news did come on 30th April, how would those feel that have missed their earlier deadline? Of course the Open Offer timetable can be extended, news or no news. How aware are the company of the situation? The whole thing from the delay in placing and AGM events to today has been managed really badly, but we will see over the coming week or so whether NUOG are changing their ways and startign to act in our best interests. I genuinley belive they don't necessary need the additional funds, I think the £250k will take them far enough to either create significant upside to place much higher, or the purchase price of the projects by the SPV to MFDevCo 2will be significant enough to negate the need of a placing.
GTW: I really think the screw over with the placing and the bad history is really overshadowing the quality and significance of what they are about to achieve. Or people just really do not believe this will happen. The placing did not give the market a chance to react to the Marnavi news or the very positive AGM. The detail and action plan required to get to a deal disclosed in the Marnavi RNS is far beyond any update we have ever had before. This can really develop quickly and the structure of the deal with the SPV with the 3 revenue streams can be very attractive for us. The number of opportunities a partner like Siemens can open up and the speed that these can be taken forward, could really lead to the building of a nice portfolio in a fairly short space of time. If MFDevCo can get a handful of projects going all with upfront payments then that will add significant value for us.
I really think one of the key bits of information we could soon learn is how much will the SPV pay MFDevCo upfront to acquire a project?
YT - When you talk about revenue being some time off, that may be the case with production revenue, which may be 12-18m away. However, maybe more credit needs to be given to the structure of deals, where they talk of 3 distinct revenue streams.
MFDevCo packaging up the project to sell to the SPV. So this is pre production revenue to MFDevCo which sounds like will come out of the SPV finance funds and will come immediatley on signing. The big question will be, how much will this be? I would expect a 7 figure amount.
Income from sevices for implementation and management. Again it sounds like there could be some pre production income to MFDevCo, which we don't know yet if this will come from SPV funding pre production or deferred until production.
Obviously income from equity share of SPV is from production. But 2 of our 3 revenue sources could come pre production from the SPV finance raised. I suspect an RNS containing details of 2 projects, with finance details and maybe a named investor confirmed, with a nice upfront payment to MFDevCo, will give us a very good run with the SP. I really am expecting at leas a part of this to come this week to support the OO, but we will soon find out.
"Out of this structure, MFDevCo expects to generate three distinct income sources for each project, namely: income generated from the sale of the project; income generated from services provided to the SPV in assisting with the implementation and management of the projects; and income generated from the project by virtue of its equity holding in the SPV."
It's worth noting a lot of brokers require notification earlier than the deadline. HL for example the deadline is 30th April. Therefore if they are going to deliver news to convince people to take up the OO they need to do it in the next 5/6 trading days....
But knowing NUOG they will probably deliver an RNS before the OO closes but after we have the opportunity to notify our broker!!!!
This can't be possible because Royscot told us nobody is interested in buying??? ;)
*whether
Any time you buy you probably read or ignore something like this:
DISCLAIMER: Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Works both ways weather history is good or bad.
It's not a pipe dream it's an investment in a high growth potential business being built from the ground up. There will be some scary stats out there if you care to look up how many of these fail. Everything that attracted investors to NUOG is still there. It just hasn't moved as quickly as people wanted and they are yet to deliver that first deal. Just because the timing of this does not meet our expectations that does not mean it has failed.
I really think what MFDevCo have already achieved is admiral from a start up to even position themselves where they are capable of doing business with the likes of Siemens, Aker etc etc. This is not BP or Shell trying to invest in a JV and starting a side business on endless budget and resources. This is a small team on a very small budget trying to make a big. People will do well to remember that sometimes when they are moaning that the money they put in hasn't made 20 bags yet. Of course the fact that its 70% maybe more down is a different matter, but as buyers we have to take the responsibility of buying at the wrong time.
I think that point has been made once or twice already Royscot..... yes you can currently but at or better than OO price, but thanks for pointlessly pointing that out. Maybe wait until it closes before making judgement.
So one instance of shareholders posting a collective bit of support about a share they are invested in big deal..... we have to put up with a daily barrage of crap and negativity from a handful of non believers.
Actually Gary i think there is more chance that they would have struggled to get the OO taken up if it was done at the same time. And i think quite a few would have missed out had they done it at the same time. A lot of people i have spoken to are looking for further news before subscribing. Also it has enabled others to purchase additional shares pre record date. So i do feel there are more benefits to holding it back, but the main benefit would be a derisked take up if they can deliver news, so we wait to see if they can update on the SPV and seed finance or something else in the next week or so.
The only possible reason i can think the delay may benefit the placees is that the delay means the new shares make the record date and therefore the placees can participate as I can't see any notice that they are being excluded from participating in the OO, which might normally be the case to fully ensure only existing holders benefit and the placees don’t get a double dip.
Yes Gary.... it looks very much like it was shorted and the company was held to ransom over the placing price. But that is very different to the company delaying the OO for them to flip is it not....... The question I have is why did they wait until the last minute to do the placing? Why did they not do it pre AGM? Why did they not do it immediatley after the AGM? Did they try to give themselves the best chance to deliver news first, were they incompetent or were they complicit?
The fact the price drop is caused by this aggressive action rather than any actual bad news, should be an opportunity, and with the very plausible scenario that the OO was delayed to enable them to deliver something to make this attractive, this should present an opportunity
Yes I do believe in the company and its prospects. The fact the price is down and AIM theatrics and placing has struck us doesnt take that away. And it doesnt mean that anyone talking negatively is correct and thoae sharing research on the prospect is wrong. As i have said many times, we are still in the development phase as much as we all wanted to be in the delivery phase by now.
Where is this flipping of shares by placees?? I cant believe the placees have been selling them at a loss? So I don't buy this theory that the delay in open offer is screwing investors. I am not saying the placing and OO has been handled particularly well. The screwing over was in the short and discount offer of the placing, not in holding back the OO. Of course its possible that the open offer was held back to enable them to time it so that newsflow makes it attractive to shareholders... but we will have to wait a couple of weeks to find out.
Firstly Nordic trustee are not effective “owner” they are believe it or not a trustee.... soon to be replaced by Madison Pacific.
Secondly one thing you fail to mention is that in the reissue of the new bonds they also mention that they are reviewing their long term equity ownership of OSX 3 Cayman and the ongoing management of OSX business. So you say the OSX is not for sale... well OSX3 might be who own the FPSO and charter agreement....
There is still a lot of risk for the bondholders because they are reliant on TM and Dommo, and at the moment they are effectively underwriting their own bond which beats the point of investing in bonds rather than equity, so yes I can still see a deal with OSX 3 and the company have recently confirmed the Brazil asset is still very much in play.
Thirdly the new charter was expected in the judicial recovery so that was lent anything unexpected.
It might well be days away or still months away or it may never happen, but I can still see a deal to be done and there is no evidence otherwise.
Well we have had 6 pretty decent updates since the AGM day....
Marnavi and GTW concept
Siemens joining GTW
Royal Eagle opening up Latam market
Marnavi SPV, Seed Finance, 2 Priority projects
Half year report (Quite a detailed account and honest account from new chairman
OO circular (OK i'll give you most of this is repeat info)
So i think lack of updates is not the problem.... its the share price because of the fooked up placing, and its the lack of a signed deal. The first problem is done we can't change.... the second problem, there are strong indications that this is coming to a conclusion.
Yes insidious they produced a computer..... you're missing the point... there would have been a period of time when they were building a computer, and failed and when they did build one it didn’t sell and nobody cared. So there would have been plenty of time before you could have said that they were successful......
This company whether you like it or not is still in the pre delivery stage.... that does not mean it will not be successful.... It just means it hasn't delivered a project yet and that is what is bending people out of shape because they wanted it to be in production stage already and be sitting on large gains.... the fact is they could be between 0-99% done on 1 project or 20 projects we don't know. But we know that every collaboration agreement talks about multiple projects and we know they are looking at 3 distinct types of projects and we know that they are currently finalising an SPV with finance for 2 priority projects, so that is demonstrable progress and defined milestones required to complete. We've never had that before.
People have lost patience with the time it's taken and the time it's taken has led to more dilution and a decline in share price. It is still too early to make a judgement on whether NUOG will be a success.
Cobra... if that's how you feel, you should never have invested in here in the first place and you should just sell out now if you are still in.
I havn't said nothing is wrong.... I am still saying there are big returns to be made despite the errors and the delays. Especially at the current price.
Clearly after the last raise they expected to deliver something material on those funds, and maybe even since the agm they may have thought they would... but it's clearly taking longer than expected... so do they give up because it's taking a bit longer....??