Member Info for Seeing-2020

Not "larger" Mr Ryan, "materially larger"

Thanks Major, so much content in that I will need to listen a few times.

Tough day, I feel for the genuine holders, hopefully you aren't a forced seller and can just hold this out.

The good news we are well funded, the 11p placing looks very good business now, wouldn't want be running short of cash atm.

Decent note from Cenkos, seems upfront is around A$500m and we will be gathering the all important data.

Seeing Machines has announced that it will deliver its industry-leading eye-tracking solution to Air Ambulance Victoria, to reduce the risk of pilot fatigue across its operations. Air Ambulance Victoria will install Seeing Machines' Pilot Fatigue Monitoring System into a minimum of four new aircraft to detect pilot fatigue in real time. This system will also activate an alerting system to reduce the risks associated with fatigue in safety- critical single-pilot operations and will be retrofitted into the aircraft in collaboration with Pel-Air's engineering authority. Pel-Air supplies fixed wing air ambulance services to Air Ambulance Victoria, providing medevac flights and medical transfers across the state.

The contract is for an initial 10 year period with the option to extend it for a further two years, has an initial value of around A$1m, including a significant non-recurring upfront payment. This will see the Company install the world's first operational pilot fatigue monitoring system and has the potential to extend beyond the initial four aircraft in Victoria. The first installation will be operational by the end of calendar year 2022, with the remaining three aircraft scheduled for 2023. In the event that additional aircraft are added to the contract then additional revenues will be payable to the Company.

? Comment: Whilst the headline figure of A$1m might not seem that exciting, we believe this contract is highly significant not just because it is a world's first commercial application of fatigue detection in an aircraft. The potential for this application is large with an estimate 50-100 aircraft of this type in operation in Australia alone, and many more across the world. This will provide headroom for the commercial uptake of the system to grow to several orders of magnitude greater than this initial deployment across four aircraft. Furthermore, the deployment will gather real world data on single pilot operation, something that is of great interest to the wider airline industry. We estimate around half of the initial value will be for non-recurring engineering principally to enable the certification of this new system. The business model following that will be a per aircraft per year at a level significantly higher than that even achieved in the off-road sector and therefore the addition of further aircraft in the coming years could see the value of this single aircraft type deployment become meaningful to Seeing Machines. We maintain our Buy recommendation and 19.5p valuation.

The Aviation forecasts from all brokers are still tiny, the upfront element of this contract alone will likely exceed the revenue forecast for FY22.

The big element for me was that this is the first ****pit solution, so we are contracted with FSS, air traffic control and ****pit.

Also well done to Patrick Nolan, he must have the patience of a Saint, I will raise a glass to him on his national holiday on 17th March.

Patrick Nolan, GM of Aviation at Seeing Machines commented: "Permanently installing our technology into the ****pit for the first time is not only ground-breaking and will likely open up many more opportunities, but so relevant  given the critical setting within which Air Ambulance Victoria works"

Interesting to have SM and SEYE results on the same day, I was looking for clues of who may have verbal design win(s) that will be announced shortly

So what did the CEO say in their comments?

Paul Mc
"We are extremely confident of more progress in the second half of the financial year and I'm looking forward to more expansion, into more geographical markets, to maximise our growth aspirations and return value to our shareholders as we deliver against market expectations"

Martin:
"Nominations of DMS suppliers among some of the world’s largest groups of car manufacturers were decided in Q4 and early Q1. Smart Eye has held its ground so far while one major procurement is still in the making.?"

What did the Brokers do?

Cenkos:
Reiterated a Buy and target price of 19.5p

Redeye:
"Redeye will lower estimates for Automotive somewhat and lower its valuation by 5-10%, but still sees a very big upside to its Base Case."

So my conclusion is that SM have / will do very well in current RFQ processes

Its a decent update in my view.

Cash very strong at almost A$80m
Revenue and all other metrics beating H1 FY21

Bits I really liked:
- 30 new models by early 2023
- 250k cars on the road now

I always look for clues in the CEO comment and Pauls is very positive

Old, yes I am happy with the cash position, thats in the higher end of my range.

Probably get some derampers telling me we raised cash at a 40% premium to todays price only a few months ago

Cash is always important, I for one trust Paul and Naomi that they make the right decisions with the cash raised from shareholders, so its the number I will be looking out for tomorrow morning and I would expect a decent beat of the number from last year.

Feb 2021 Trading Update
"Cash position at 31 December 2020 of A$52.7m"

The cost of capital assumption makes a big difference with targets.

Cenkos use 11% for their 19.5p, if they used a more reasonable 8% their target would increase to 36p

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-safety/driver-monitoring-systems-ford-gm-earn-points-in-cr-tests-a6530426322/

CR now adds 2 points to a vehicle’s Overall Score if it includes a driver monitoring system that encourages safe driving as part of its active driver assistance package. So far only Ford’s BlueCruise and GM’s Super Cruise have earned the additional points, because we determined that other available systems don’t do enough to encourage drivers to use them safely. Starting with the 2024 model year, vehicles with active driver assistance systems that lack adequate driver monitoring will lose 1 point from their Overall Score, increasing to a 3-point deduction for 2026 models.
“We believe it’s time to recognize vehicles that have found a safer way to deploy this technology,” says Jake Fisher, senior director of CR’s Auto Test Center. “GM’s Super Cruise and now Ford’s BlueCruise both have the right combination of helping drivers enjoy the convenience of automation while verifying that they’re keeping their eyes on the road.”

Great post as ever Sandy.

For me sentiment will move very quickly, there are many things that could be a catalyst and I like the lack of panic from the leadership, they have a plan and are sticking to it, day to day SP movements impact nervous PI more than our leadership or our II.

I put the catalyst in 4 categories

1) Auto
- Compounding is an amazing thing in investing, more RFQ wins will land and the order book grows, above A$500m is a near term target.

2) Aviation
- I remember talking to a longterm investor years ago (whose opinion I respect) and he was of the view that Aviation would end up our largest division. We all know its been the most impacted by Covid, at least commercial aviation. However we have won a number of contracts during this time.
- We have the Singapore Airshow this coming week, L3, CAE, Collins will all be there, would be a good time to announce a license deal or a more substantial contract win.

3) Corporate
- we could have something corporate that acts as a catalyst to the SP.
- Placing, seems unlikely to me as we had one late last year at 11p.
- Strategic Investor, obvs we had Magna invest $10m at 11p, I see another strategic investor more likely, Amazon invested in lidar supplier Velodyne a few weeks back.
- Takeover, we are a PLC so a takeover offer can land any day, imo the first bid won't be successful and others will counter, so any bid is an obvious catalyst, Alex Roy believes all DMS Tier 2 bought out within 12 months, Colin B is on record that he thinks Cipia is first, I don't agree with Colin as Cipia has just done an IPO and SM is best performing, any suitor waits to see if they can buy SM first before moving on to lessor players.

4) Fleet
- So earlier I mentioned the respected LTH who predicted Aviation being the largest division, well I predicted Fleet and I stick to that even after we have won Ford, BMW, Mercedes, GM, VW etc
- Paul in a video about a year ago mentioned that Fleet was growing despite the lack of progress in the North Hemi, caused by Covid shut downs
- I see signs of real progress in Europe, obviously Shell OIL, another amazing customer. Gerard and the European team are active on socials looks for partners to distribute and install, all great signs of growth
- A tie up with big telematics partner would be a catalyst, we have EROAD but I would expect more.
- Fleet is profit making and generating cash
- Recurring will soon over take hardware sales, thats really important as its future cashflows that can be forecasted easily
- Then we have the fact that OEM will need to fit DMS into trucks, lorries etc, I know who I would turn too.

So thank you Sandy, enjoyed your note, off now to make some eggy bread.

DR777, stop ramping it's not a good look.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/magna-international_magna-lands-industry-first-award-for-integrated-activity-6896510201239891968-Abd9

Lots of negativity on here, but for me at some point compounding will take hold and we will get a rerate

so we know they have A$1.1bn of RFQ live, on the table, awaiting results.
- market might expect circa A$330m to come our way - 30%
- so far we have A$125m
- wins will compound from here
- Jane Fonda would be timely

Up, like you and I Magna own a small piece of SM

$10m at 11p for them

Sounds very impressive

A unique feature of Magna’s system is the central, unobstructed location high on the windscreen which provides an optimal view of the driver, front seat passenger, second and third row occupants. This allows both driver and occupancy monitoring with a single camera – uniquely packaged into the mirror unit.

“Our driver monitoring system opens up a world of possibilities when it comes to integration with other ADAS vehicle technologies, and lends itself to new mobility concepts such as authentication for ride sharing. With our full systems expertise, Magna is ideally positioned to unlock these opportunities – further helping to improve safety, comfort and convenience for all who share the road.”

https://www.bmwblog.com/2022/02/07/bmw-i4-software-update-idrive-8/

This looks like first BMW with SM tech

https://mobile.twitter.com/semicast_res?lang=en

I be fair I have been positive on Seeing Machines since 1984, its not a new guise. If that makes be a ramper I am ok with that.