Member Info for Seeing-2020

Auto design win would be a nice start to "spectacular Sept" this coming week.

For those looking at your calendar and saying "that eejit is wrong again"

Give it time, my message in a bottle said the fireworks start next week...

I haven't predicted a "spectacular sept" for a number of years, having first wrongly predicted one in 1984. The good news is after a recent session with my therapist they inform me I am ready for such predictions again.

So "Spectacular September" it is then, all my wrong predictions are in the rear-view mirror and I have upgraded to a top of the range Magna mirror and can see more clearly now.

So from next week one should expect

- multiple auto design wins for big dollar

- Gen3 launch and big big volume order(s)

- Aviation win for 333

Rockets, take off, to the moon, etc

Redeye, apparently mirror is wrong strategy, lets see how those comments age

"Seeing Machines continues to firmly believe in its exclusivity arangement with Magna. That is, these two being exclusive for Magna's rearview mirror solution, with built-in DMS. In a recent interview, Seeing Machines' CEO commented that the joint solution was likely to have big success because it is 'cheaper' than competing solutions.

We think this statement is false. The reason why is that the solution implies that a camera, a processor, and LEDs are built into a small rearview mirror - a very complex thing to accomplish. We believe the high complexity of this also makes it more expensive than alternative locations of placing the camera. As we know, the automotive industry is always eager to cut costs, implying that at least volume producers are likely to prefer alternative solutions."

My favourite bit was when he confirmed BMW is "at the end of its lifecycle and will decrease this year and next"

Also no mention of an interior mirror offering, so many of the current RFQ will be a one horse race

The king of spin has lost his mojo, he says happy but looks sad

Short, is anyone can guess the missing word my money would be on you

Https://www.linkedin.com/posts/seeingmachines_seeing-machines-revenues-soar-to-record-levels-activity-7099707621892395008-fpho?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android

All haul safestocks

Cenkos was too low at $53.5m, safestocks yet again was most accurate with $60m.

I like a man in orthopedic shoes will continue to stand corrected

One man's "trouble" is another man's opportunity, we still get the hardware sales and associated margin

For anyone with any concerns about cash you should read the footnote.

"Working capital increased due to the timing of Guardian inventory deliveries, leading to an increased level of inventory and receivables at 30 June 2023. Inventory levels are sufficient to support demand for H1 FY2024 and will unwind along with receivables in the first half of FY24."

Another standout comment for me

"As Europe's General Safety Regulation comes into effect in 2024, the "After Manufacture" market (factory fit for Bus and Truck vehicles) presents growing opportunities and Seeing Machines' plans are well advanced as commercial vehicle manufacturers seek to sell compliant vehicles"

Fleet sales are the standout for me in todays trading update

"Total Guardian hardware sales for FY2023 of 14,779 units, with Q4 achieving record sales of over 10,000 units as backlog demand met following easing of earlier supply chain constraints"

10k units in one quarter is very strong

"In Aftermarket, annual Guardian hardware sales have grown by 11%, with previous supply issues now largely overcome. Monitored connections of 51,975 excludes the sale of over 5,700 Guardian units, upgrading customers from Generation 1 to Generation 2, as Australia phases out its 3G networks in favour of 4G over the next 12 months."

They explain the cash position, not an issue at all.

"Working capital increased due to the timing of Guardian inventory deliveries, leading to an increased level of inventory and receivables at 30 June 2023. Inventory levels are sufficient to support demand for H1 FY2024 and will unwind along with receivables in the first half of FY24."

Very good video

Why has bluecruise had 64m miles in US with no incidents?

You will like the answer

Part 2

What could Q4 hardware sales be, doesnt matter if they are connected or not, once they are sold they count in revenue for end of year.

Option 1:

Modest 100% ramp up on Q3, so sell 6,296k, which would leave a very large proportion of the 29k unsold

Revenue upside $7.5m

So $61m v Cenkos $53.5m

What do we know.?

- mentioned 29k order and will want most of them gone ASAP

- Q3 did 3,148 units, from only 1,536 units in previous 6 months

- we have the aussie replacement thing in our favour also.

Unit rate seems to be something like $1,971/ 1536 = $1,283k per unit

I will call it $1.2k per unit for ease

Option 2 = Cenkos have a number that's double in their note after most recent KPIs

So if I use their 12k units, I get a revenue beat of $14.6m

$68m v Cenkos $53.5m

Option 3 = if they got to say 15,000 units compared to the Cenkos 12k

Revenue upside circa $18m

$71m v Cenkos $53.5m.

Of course I am just an uneducated dreamer so let's see

part 1:

i have done some *** packet workings for my view of the revenue number for the trading update. source documents i have used for my analysis include the h1 report and cenkos forecast.

this is the workings from my ***-packet, of course i am an uneducated dreamer shareholder but anyway i have a range.

h1:

revenue was $24.4m

loss was $5.4m

some *** packet numbers:

cenkos:

revenue $53.5m

loss $15.2m

for the full year

so to do in h2

revenue $29.1m

loss $9.8m

so oem first (includes aviation)

- h1 royalty revenue = £3.1m, per quarterly kpis this is for 253k units.

- q3 was 173k units, i am assuming 200k for q4 (same growth rate) = 387k units and $4.7m revenue

call it $1.5m upside

nre is $4.7m for h1, we would have some vw in that but with vw so large i can assume nre will increase 25%.

so call it a $1.2m upside

licensing

- magna was $5.4m in h1.

- trying to work out how they did that, it was $17.5m over 3 years and $10m of that paid upfront.

so there will be an element in h2.

- h2 we have the collins upfront payment of $3m. (of the $10m).

- for now i am going to assume license revenue is flat

that all gets me $15.7m ish for oem, lets call it $16m

so we need $29m for h2 and $16m comes from oem

fleet therefore needs $13m

h1 fleet was $10.3m

the big kicker should be hardware and installations.

driver monitoring in h1 was $5.2m, thats the recurring revenue so can only ever increase.

at h1 report they state "annualised" as $11.9m so divide by 2 is $5.95m and add a modest 10% increase for new i get $6.5m.

an increase of $1.3m.

royalties is cat, i will assume flat, nre also flat.

so fleet hardware

h1

units 1,536 revenue $1.9m

well we know that in q3 they did. 1,854 new units sold and 1,294 replaced (oz specific 3g issue)

so q3 alone using assumed unit rate from h1 i get, 3,148 units which is revenue of $4m.

fleet

monitoring $6.5m

royalty $1m

nre $2.1m

hardware $4m

total = $13.6m

so this is my full year assumptions for other elements but known hardware sales to end q3 only.

then i add oem of $16m, gets me to exactly the cenkos forecast of $29.1m

key point =

so i get to a place that all hardware sales in q4 are upside to the cenkos overall forecast of $53.5m .

tbc

Interesting shortwhacker

How long has DMS been around then?

Nice find

10 April 2019

 

10 April 2019

Seeing Machines Limited

Design win for next generation automotive program

 

Seeing Machines (AIM: SEE, "Seeing Machines" or the "Group"), the advanced computer vision technology company that designs AI powered operator monitoring systems to improve transport safety, has been appointed by Joyson Safety Systems (JSS) to provide its FOVIO driver monitoring technology for a US automotive OEM as it expands the rollout of their award-winning driving system across a number of additional vehicle models.

Mass production for the additional models is scheduled from 2020, and the expansion represents an initial estimated lifetime revenue of over A$7 million for Seeing Machines.

Seeing Machines now has seven OEM production programs spanning a broad range of car models across a total of six automotive OEMs globally, which are expected to deliver over A$150 million revenue largely in the 2021 to 2024 timeframe.

Seeing Machines' FOVIO driver monitoring platform uses advanced machine vision technology to precisely measure and analyse head pose, eyelid movements and eye-gaze under a full spectrum of demanding lighting conditions, including through sunglasses. This data is processed to interpret driver attention state, focus, drowsiness and impairment levels to provide ADAS (advanced driver assistance systems) with critical inputs in real time.

Driver Monitoring Systems (DMS) technology is set to become standard technology in most modern passenger cars for improved driver and semi-automated driving safety.

Nick DiFiore, GM of Automotive at Seeing Machines, commented:

"We are delighted to have further validation of our technology with this program award to extend the rollout of the FOVIO DMS across more vehicles for this major customer.

"Our team has worked closely with JSS to deliver this program and we are proud to continue our association."

Https://www.safestocks.co.uk/

Keep up Steve.

No fundraise needed since the Magna deal