We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
A blind man with a dog and a stick could see that placing coming.
Be careful what you wish for
The drop in Gross Profit was explained very clearly in the results pres. Last year we had a higher element of auto license revenue (Magna upfront payment) which was at 100% margin.
I woke up in a cold sweat this morning, for over a decade I have spent hours a day researching the industry and this company.
I predicted many things
Auto - $1bn+ orderbook of design wins
Fleet - over 100k installed base, generating free cashflow and valued higher than auto. I predicted contracts with coca cola, fedex etc etc.
Aviation - license deals and large contract wins.
People said I was a ramper, but I trusted my research so took that as a compliment.
However, the sad sad truth is I never predicted the most important business metric the holy grail of cashflow breakeven, shame on me, I never saw it coming, these dreamers in OZ actually turning a cash profit, not an accounting profit by sticking R&D on the balance sheet the higher bar of cash profit.
Shame on me, I am actually a deramper after all.
@Team300.
To be clear what I am most interested in is cashflow breakeven, so if we are on track for below $1m even before we see the full impact of VW then that's great, cash is the one figure one can't ramp it's a factual number. As for prior burn, firstly it's bought and paid for and in the cash balance reported as at 31st Dec 23, secondly if it was higher than planned that makes the drop to below $1m even more impressive.
I am very impressed with the control of costs/ cashburn.
On track for below $1m in Q4 (April-June 2024), previously they had said $1-1.5m.
Firstly the article is a month old and most of us read it then, I post the whole article below as Brock seemed to be mixing the article and their opinion as the article states $1bn (circa 20p) not 7-10p.
Seeing Machines
"This is one of the great unknown success stories to come out of the Australian National University. Its progress toward profitability offers fascinating insights into the consequences of years of R&D investment in a technology that was once ahead of its time.
The company’s driver monitoring systems, which are used to combat fatigue and reduce car accidents, have been sold to a range of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) which sell products to global carmakers including BMW and General Motors.
CEO Paul McGlone says the company is at an inflection point because the amount spent on R&D as a percentage of revenue will fall from about 60 per cent to 20 to 30 per cent as revenue surges. In other words, a plunging R&D ratio will be a positive sign.
Seeing Machines, which is listed on the AIM market in London, has forecast a doubling in revenue to $US125 million by 2026.
The critical aspect of that forecast is that revenue from royalties will rise about nine-fold to as much as $US68.75 million.
McGlone says the royalties, which come from long-term contracts with OEMs, have a profit margin of about 95 per cent.
It would not be surprising if the valuation of Seeing Machines cracks $1 billion in the next two years as the market re-rates the stock on the back of higher revenue and the arrival of cashflow break even."
We know the cars on the road for the period they are reporting on 18th March as we got them with the trading update.
BMW operating system 9.0 includes SM DMS, it came into production summer 23.
It's all about the quarterly KPI's that's what shows us the progress the company is making, it was interesting over the years to speculate on models but now we have multiple programs in production so for me the KPI's are the most important metric, it doesn't matter to me what OEMs make up the quarterly numbers once it all adds up to the annual growth the company have forecasted
Pipeline of design wins is also important as that will drive the cars on the road as we enter the 2nd half of the decade.
SEYE will still have some historic models with BMW, however all new type approved are SM from operating system 8 onwards, circa July 23.
VW I would say we are in the new Golf, which is in production now and will be huge volume
Newsflash, we did invest in OMS and have a design win in production now
16 December 2021
Largest Driver and Occupant Monitoring System award with OEM #8
Seeing Machines Limited (AIM: SEE, "Seeing Machines" or the "Company"), the advanced computer vision technology company that designs AI-powered operator monitoring systems to improve transport safety, has been appointed by an existing customer and global Automotive Tier-1 supplier to deliver its FOVIO Driver and Occupant Monitoring System (OMS). This contract win is with a leading German Automaker and brings the total OEMs with which Seeing Machines has won business to eight.
This program covers an expansive number of vehicle models with mass production scheduled from early 2024 and an initial lifetime value of A$125 million. While representing the largest awarded DMS program to date, there also remains significant upside potential based on OEM expansion plans. Delivery is via the Company's deeply embedded Driver Monitoring Engine (FOVIO e-DME software library) configured for both driver and occupant state sensing, enabling a rich set of regulated and premium safety and convenience features
They have finally admitted to having less than 2m cars on the road currently, they hit 1m in July 22 so that shows the impact of losing BMW to SM .
This article didn't age well, even Rana has jumped ship.
https://www.smarteye.se/blog/the-first-million-was-the-hardest-why-smart-eye-reaching-1000000-cars-on-the-roads-is-only-the-beginning/
It's in line with our RNS
16 October 2023
Seeing Machines and RTX begin joint development of aviation fatigue detection solution
- Follows signing of exclusive license agreement to jointly develop pioneering eye-tracking solutions for the Aviation industry
- Non-recurring Engineering revenue (NRE) of US$2.65 million payable to Seeing Machines over 2 years covering product development and certification
Seize,
I don't know your background, you may well be a FTSE 100 CEO or a top fund manager, but even if you are you aren't part of the management team of SM, if you think you can do better then set up your own DMS company.
I am just a shareholder so I either trust management to get on with their job or if I didn't trust them I would sell.
the point cfp is cb was one of the first analysts to recognise the potential of arm holdings back when the market cap was below $100m. since then its clear to see the success story for arm.
he has constantly predicted sm as the next arm.
my experience with arm was attending a talk with simon segars (ex arm ceo) around a decade ago, he talked about the years the sp being below the expectations of certain pi who then ****ged him off on bulletin boards or via email, he then explained when the sp started to rise the same shareholders told him how great he was. i guess we will see more name changes when that happens here.
For those of us who rate what Colin says above our resident derampers.
It will be interesting to note that ARM holdings market cap has more than doubled in the past week to circa $150bn.
https://www.eetimes.com/seeing-machines-might-be-the-next-arm/
For those still seeking proof of the VW win
Seems Magna have won VW for DMS. Scroll to the bottom, click on all departments, click on DMS and you will see the DMS roles, a few of them mention VW
https://magnaelectronicsromania.teamtailor.com/#jobs
This role may support both European and North American Program Managers in the TISH Product Area, though priority is being given to support of European VW MIK program.
I must admit calling me a "balloon" makes me feel a bit deflated.
#Team300
More than a million people die around the world every year as a result of car crashes, mostly due to driver error. Consequently, amid the many outlandish claims about the world-changing capacity of artificial intelligence, its deployment by the Aim-listed Seeing Machines to slash the number of fatal road accidents is compelling — not least as its technology is already in situ in more than a million vehicles.
Launched in 2000 as a spin-off from the Australian National University, and initially backed by Volvo, Canberra-based Seeing Machines makes monitoring systems that alert drivers to their tiredness or fading attention. It uses AI along with data amassed by monitoring drivers’ behaviour and eye movements over two decades and eight billion kilometres of real driving. Its “driver monitoring system” then triggers an alarm — a vibrating seat — or sends a message to a fleet manager of a commercial vehicle if it spots a dozy driver. Seeing Machines’ technology is already fitted in tens of thousands of heavy commercial vehicles and more than a million cars; customers include Transport for London’s buses, Ford, Mercedes Benz and General Motors.
Rule changes mean that momentum is with this business: a camera-based driver monitoring system will be a prerequisite for a five-star rating in the new European car safety regulations, Euro NCAP, from 2026. And later this year, a driver monitoring system becomes mandatory in all new vehicles sold in the EU.
This stock has, for some time, been one of those repeatedly tipped for glory yet never quite making it: the shares are currently trading at about 5.3p, down by nearly a quarter in the past 12 months, and Seeing Machines’ market capitalisation is still just £220 million. It is also still loss-making: having spent $35 million (£27.5 million) on research and development last year, it posted a $15.5 million loss — albeit better than 2022’s $18.5 million loss.
The balance sheet is strong, though, with $36 million of cash, and the firm is set to break even next year, when higher-margin royalties are poised to rise for every car manufactured with Seeing Machines’ system embedded. Its relative longevity is notable, too: realms of tiddlers have disappeared since it listed on the junior market in 2005, and it has maintained growth. Revenues rose by 48 per cent to $57.8 million for the year to last July, with the firm increasing the installation of its “Guardian” technology in commercial vehicles, as well as growing in aviation, where Seeing Machines’ technology is keeping check on pilots’ alertness levels.
The company predicts that revenues will exceed $125 million by 2026, and the City has shown renewed interest. Investment bank Stifel names Seeing Machines as one of its top stock picks of the year, with analyst Peter McNally naming a hefty 15p target price and flagging the shares as currently “attractively valued”.
Seeing Machines is a market leader
CFP, fine for you to post your opinions about the company and its progress.
However, one of our longterm term holders and a friend to many of us passed away a few years ago and was actually mentioned in a very respectful way by Paul at the London Townhall, perhaps you can consider that when you next post.