Member Info for Seeing-2020

FY26 will show growth from existing programs and increased sales from Gen3, alongside the $33m increase in the "guaranteed volumes from new programs" revenue.

I expect revenue will be North of $100m, one of brokers has today upgraded FY26 to $112m

fy25 revenue was $62m

fy26 we get $43m from guaranteed volumes, fy25 was $10m, so an increase of $33m.

so just having the same "normal" auto and fleet revenue gets us from $62m to $95m. then you add the expected growth and you get north of $100m.

100% growth in revenue looks possible on my *** packet.

Isb is correct, no new design wins are required for the 10x increase in volumes mentioned at the TH.

- additional volume from current production

- new volume from the production that has commenced in summer 2025

- new volume from the 2nd production ramp up from VW, due later in 2025.

The four levels of C-IASI are G (Good), A (Acceptable), M (Marginal) and P (Poor). This year, C-IASI introduced stricter regulations, including a new “G+” (Good+) rating that requires all sub-items to achieve a “G” rating.

The C-IASI (China Insurance Automotive Safety Index) rating G+ signifies the highest level of safety performance achieved in the C-IASI crash tests. Specifically, it means a vehicle has received a "Good+" rating across all assessment categories, indicating excellent performance in occupant protection, pedestrian protection, and safety assist systems, as well as a "Good" rating for crashworthiness and maintenance economy.

Q3 burn was $3m a month = $9m

Q4 they improved costs by $1m so $2m a month = $6m.

So I would say circa $25m at June 25.

Qtr to Seot 25 burn of say $1.5m a month and then cashflow breakeven in Qtr to Dec 25.

So end Dec 25 something like $20m and from then on we generate cash

Pretty sure the previous number of trials mentioned was 7 or 8

First time I have heard SM claim to be in the top 3 OEMs in Europe.

The top three automotive OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) by sales volume in Europe are typically Volkswagen Group, Stellantis, and Renault.

Humster , his comment was about design win awards, the year-end cut off isnt relevant.

Arun, 6k was the number per qtr required for their breakeven run-rate, which at TH they stated as end of calendar year. They never said 6k by end June, they used the phrase "near-term"

If they have reached 2k a month production at end of June, then 6k a qtr looks at worst on track for their "end of calender year" projections.

At the TH they presented a very clear plan to cashflow breakeven, and to me it looks on track.

Their cashflow breakeven plan is based on

1. $1m cost savings per month = done at start of April

2. 6k Gen3 units per qtr. Should be close by Sept qtr.

3. Circa 750k cars on the road in a qtr.

June = 488k

So very doable by Dec qtr, need 25% growth a qtr and June was 36% growth

Lots of posters on here like to call out Paul when he is too optimistic or when he says what he thinks will happen with an RFQ and then it gets delayed for external reasons, but what about when he is too pessimistic?

In the qtr ending Dec 24 we did 266k cars on the road, Paul was interviewed at the time and he said "we are assuming auto volumes will be flat for a couple of qtrs", he was too prudent.

March qtr was 358k not 266k, an over achievement of 92k

June qtr was 488k not 266k, an over achievement of 222k

Under promise, over deliver.

All OEMs will have DMS, or they won't be able to sell cars in Europe from July 2026.

However, many of the big procurement decsions have been made, so Mobileye are 10 years behind on the tech but in reality they have missed the boat.

They can of course try to get

- VW

- Ford

- Mercedes

- BMW

In the real world rhey only way that happens is a novation of contracts on completion of a takeover of SM, I don't think they have the $$$ to tempt Mitsu ti cash in their chips.

Based on today's post from CB, Mobileye are about a decade behind SM. The GM design win would have been 2014/15.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/colin-barnden-1081376_dms-automotive-driver-activity-7356676823746813952-070E?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_android&rcm=ACoAAAhWlqEBEaKZMGs9u04O9Y3CNkklo_3oS_4

I agree Aaroon, the dye is cast for July 2026 volumes.

This will be design wins from 2021/21, when SM won circa 80% of the available design wins.

This is why Martin Ive spoke with confidence in April about a 10x in European volumes by July 26, the only question being in which qtr the ramp up really starts, we should see KPIs for the qtr to 30th June 25 pretty soon.

So the volumes come from programmes already in production as at Apr 25, 2 new programmes that commenced "summer 25" and a high volume ramp up from VW in the calendar year 2025.

European GSR regulations kick in from July 2026.

The company explained this very clearly at the Townhall in April, it's the reason why they are expecting a 10x increase in quarterly "cars on the road", thats from existing programmes either already at SoP or entering SoP this calendar year

Any new design wins would be for start of production 2027/28.

"significant traction"

"While there are several viable locations within the cabin to implement this technology, including instrument panels and steering columns, one area gaining significant traction is the interior rearview mirror. This placement offers a strategic location for integrating driver monitoring, bringing the technology closer to the driver’s natural line of sight while maintain a clean and familiar design"

Interesting article from 4 years ago.

https://www.eetimes.com/we-really-need-to-talk-about-mobileye/

The irony of the Mobileye DMS is Seeing Machines and others spent a lot of time looking at this question on a white board over the years "How do we become the next Mobileye"

Now Mobileye are asking "How do we become the next Seeing Machines".

Personally, I am not excited / worried by the mobileye offering, it would be different if they announced it was "production ready" or a "design win" ir even "being trialed and tested by global OEMs".

They seem very late to the game.

- current live RFQ have been in progress for years and are for for 2027/28 production, no way Mobileye are in those processes

- so they will be a straight fight between SEYE & SM

- maybe Mobileye are ready to enter the process for the next round, for say 2030, but how to they prove it works in live realworks situations?

- Mobileye tried and failed in the Fleet market.

Finally, we have the realworld data and multiple world leading partners, 20bn+ km is a pretty decent moat.

Could they buy SM, unlikely in my view, Mitsu own 20% so can block any bid until they are ready to buy our shares.