Stefan Bernstein explains how the EU/Greenland critical raw materials partnership benefits GreenRoc. Watch the full video here.
LoveHandles - you mentioned;
"Sure Andii, "in-theory" they can try and target "target pure TiO2 that sells for $2000/t", which would require EEE to be building a smelter or similar as part of their project - not much change out of $1bn to build one of those...and that's on top of the cost of building a mine."
If the size of the resource is big enough to alter the market pricing dynamics of the product being sold - wouldn't the capex for smelter and mine still be inconsequential for a major, assuming the IRRs are big enough for a Tier 1 mine in a Tier 1 jurisdiction?
SB mentioned the discovery being "soft rock" which is different to what the major mines currently operational are. Does that make it more or less attractive to a major? And any views on metallurgy? Given SB is an expert in metallurgical aspects is that less of a risk? Cheers
Is the Pitfield discovery already assumed to be commercially viable? Any views on downside risks given the 500% rise in sp?
In oil and gas exploration, lack of commerciality of a discovery can pull the rug from under the share price... Do we have a similar risk with EEE or that risk has been eliminated? Cheers
Curious why the ceo still hasn't bought sizably in the open market given his confidence?
Is there a close period where the BOD can't purchase shares?
They have definitely said it's a big find but any thoughts on commerciality, and JV prospects?
Jim- apart from dividend you have another play which is the discounted valuation of Shell and the ownership of the cash flow that it gets you vs other majors and value stocks. Another option play which is that Shell is stuck in the mud that is woke FTSE100 which no major institutional investors in the world wants to allocate capital to. If Shell was part of S&p500 - Shell would be trading at least 50% higher simply due to passive capital flows into the S&p500 index vs paltry flows into Ftse100 index. A great house in a terrible neighborhood is discounted massively. Solution is to relocate the house if you can to a good neighborhood.
Case in point -
Shell made FCF of $10bn. Operating cash flow of $15bn.
ExxonMobil made FCF of $5bn and operating cash flow of around $10bn.
ExxonMobil is valued double of Shell. And don't get why Shell has 90k employees which is 50% more than ExxonMobil?
Buybacks are definitely a form of distribution unfortunately it doesn't get deposited as dividend. Buybacks of course has reduced the total dividend amount that Shell has to pay given 15% of shares reduction over last few years.
Quick way for 50% + capital gain realization in shell shares is if we get some big active investor like third point successfully convincing for break up or relocation of Shell. One can hope.
Interesting view;
And the share price reaction says it all. Bet Sawan and most of us were hoping we'd see a BP style 10% share price jump when moving back to oil and gas is disclosed.
Shell needs to quit the London market as many have been suggesting. UK capital markets is a dinosaur and being part of the FTSE100 has been an absolute liability. Shell should be in S&P500 and watch the index related capital flow into Shell. FTSE100 is best avoided - look at the Ftse100 chart of the last 10 years plus.
Do it Sawan - you can't please everyone. Get new US shareholders and let the European virtue signaling investors fight for crumbs.
"Does Shell need to quit London? A lot of brokers think so"
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1017579/does-shell-need-to-quit-london-a-lot-of-brokers-think-so-1017579.html
Yes possibly a wrong decision to sell in short term - but watching the webcast didn't inspire confidence as an investment. Will wait to see what the production deal is like and how it's structured.
The JV partner owns 49% of the subsidiary - the other 51% is owned by lbe. So with ownership comes capital committents alongside the rewards. Japex is not going to fund 100% of JV in return for 51% of the company ownership. It's not a payment to LBE it's an "investment " so that goes in the co. Lbe can draw from the facility but might have to top up via equity as well. Didn't find that clarity from the call and Didn't like the last raise which added over 100% of shares, with management taking part in token amount.
Closed period entire way down from 59p to 10p and for months and years ?
And the cash balance is to be used for the Q3 drill, so not unencumbered - after the drill, cash goes to minimal? In essence, the webcast was why I decided to sell as lost conviction and didn't get clarity. Good luck with your investments.
All IMO dyor
Out mainly after watching the webcast. Looks like plc has 3mn left while rest has been put in the new JV Co. From the webcast it looks like the $100mn is basically accessible but might also need LBE to raise at plc level to fund JV share. There was a comment by management that the 100mn facility is like a mezz top up which I think is reference to mezzanine finance. So looks like equity needs to be contributed to access the bank lending using this facility as part of the small acquisition(read BCE?).
Not sure why management expanded to Malaysia if there is so much value in Norway, which is outside the JV so Malaysia would definitely need to be funded by plc. And didn't understand why management never bought any shares or have a decent holding - and surprised they couldn't comment on whether the valuation is too low.
Btw looks like Happysparrow was right regarding the explanation.
ALL IMO and could be wrong so DYOR GL
Investor presentation on the Japex deal starts in 15 min
https://www.investormeetcompany.com/longboat-energy-plc/register-investor
So looking at MATD and PRD and other exploration plays - when does the run up to the spud begin? MATD breached £50mn market cap while PRD did above £40mn. Any thoughts when does the attention of these pre run investors turns to LBE?
Posters are focusing on the wrong piece - the most important and valuable part is the $100mn acquisition facility.
The other amount is just participation interest. Think of it as LBE farming out its Norwegian assets or subsidiary for 50% interest in return for funding the assets. At the end of the day the value is derived from the assets I.e. The exploration and appraisal wells. Until production cash flows in. LBE and Japex would get back a lot of the funds back through rebates. Imagine being able to drill non stop exploration wells via a fully funded partners balance sheet. Also that funding of exploration has significant tax rebates - so is it in essence risk free drilling? £43mn on the way in coming months ...
UJO - has a market cap of £26mn and has production of 300 bopd. Should give an idea what the comparable market cap should be for a Wressle type onshore asset with BCE retaining 100% of oil flows at current 700 bopd rates?
Cheers Daz. How much do you think has been priced in already - vs say resource and time to production vs ALL? Market currently assumes that deal has gone through and construction begins? So what other sizable catalysts do we have left prior to first ore in a years time or so?
Imo Don't like these 100% spikes in weeks time - it attracts speculators and then the up and down profit taking volatility shakes out even the strongest holders - been through that and hate it. Steady and consolidating rise always best imo
"ALL sits at 200mil MC just under double KODs "-
Small correction - Kod market cap of £135 mn vs ALL market cap of £200mn - that's just 50% upside from kod current market cap.
All IMO
For a balanced view alongside positives - Can't seem to find any negatives apart from the obvious Mali political environment risks?
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/mali-conflict-france-jihadist-insurgency-corruption-shadow-government/
https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/04/1135587
And is Atlantic Lithium the best proxy valuation for comparison? ALL seems to have 35Mt resource at much higher IRR - more than kod but would Kod have a higher valuation than ALL?
Kod valuation is pretty close to ALLs market cap currently - would the numbers justify a higher valuation than ALL - given Ghana is more stable than Mali seems to be? Cheers
Look at the share price performance since XIB disclosed their short in Dec.
https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B0WD0R35/
Either after closing of merger or something else... We are not going to escape this continuous selling. Bhp and major miners have hit 52 week highs with copper at highs. Hard to break out on the upside with a motivated arbitrage seller(if that's what the shorter is there for). When is the merger finally due to close and strategic review outcome disclosed? Potentially that's when the seller clears?
Is the Walmart news really a big deal, given the existing offerings via Amazon and Ebay?
From '22 Interim results ;
"With existing partnerships we have focused on extending our listings. For example, we have recently increased product availability on Amazon as a result of it re-opening the ability to list refurbished B grade ('Very Good') and C grade ('Good') conditioned products in the UK and US. This opens up the entire musicMagpie Consumer technology stockholding to be sold on Amazon, thereby greatly increasing the sales potential for this platform. In addition, we have also begun using Amazon's fulfilment service (Fulfilment by Amazon) which provides additional reach, scale and speed of execution."