RE: Spikey, The Trolls Reaction30 Dec 2025 21:51
Based on what was said today
First, anchor reality (important)
What changes if:
peace / ceasefire stabilises,
sanctions ease,
US capital and OEMs re-engage (auto, battery, strategic metals)?
It does not suddenly reprice assets to in-ground value.
What it does is:
bring credible buyers back
lower the risk discount
enable structured deals (JV, staged acquisition, strategic stake)
That moves valuation from “optional asset” → “strategic asset”.
Likely outcome (12–24 months, with US participation)
Most probable transaction type
Not a full sale.
Much more likely:
Strategic JV / partial sale (20–40%), or
Anchor investment with path to control, or
Asset-level deal, not company buyout
This is how US buyers manage geopolitical and capex risk.
Likely valuation mechanics
Using the CEO’s framing, but translating correctly:
In-ground: ~$75bn (scale signal only)
Implied NPV range (5–8%): ~$3.5–6.0bn
Deal pricing with US back in market:
30–40% of NPV (this is the key shift)
That gives:
➡️ $1.2bn – $2.4bn implied asset value
This is the centre of gravity, not the tail.
Translate to share price (≈3.49bn shares, GBP)
FX ~0.78:
$1.2bn ≈ £940m → ~27p/share
$2.4bn ≈ £1.87bn → ~54p/share
🎯 Likely range:
~25p – 45p