RE: late trade9 Mar 2020 22:48
some signs of credit drying up is to be expected, however, this "crisis" is not in the payment and settlement systems of the banks and as such we are not looking at a lehmans moment from the perspective of the US. They are stress tested now for this exact type of scenario and are well capitalised to withstand it.
The actions of the Russians and Saudi's won't affect US shale overnight, as it has a lot of hedges in place to see it through for months at least, the impact will be felt when they try to refinance existing debts - this is where they may find issues and some going out of business.
With expected downturn in demand underway due to the virus, the unknown quantity is "how much of the existing or anticipated cuts will actually be needed and who may get left holding the bag, if they agree to set amounts, whilst US shale still pumps at full tilt.
The russians and saudis are all to well aware of the consequences of their actions - but they let them happen anyhow - so they did this on purpose.
The virus was bringing markets down - they knew that not agreeing anything would crater the markets - they could have done something - they didn't and how convenient to do it at the weekend, when markets are closed.