low valuation6 Aug 2020 19:29
If we look at the blyvoor tailings only and ignore all else.
Lets assume a 50% recovery - that is 650k oz - as it is a jv lets say 325k oz to KAT.
Revenue over the life of the project is $650,000,000 at $2k an oz gold for kats share.
say AISC are $1000 an oz (higher than kat quote) - that is $325,000,000
meaning $325,000,000 net to kat over the life of the project. Say it runs for 25 years - that is $13m per year after costs to KAT.
In sterling, that is Β£9.8m per year of cash after costs, at the current gold price and assuming a higher running cost and lower end recovery rate.
the first four or so years, would be payback for the upfront costs - then it is only variable costs for consumables and parts to consider.
Assuming a minimum return of c. Β£10m pa net to KAT, this should be trading nearer the 9p to 10p range, either now, or when that financing deal arrives. That in my view would reflect the current value of the project, as it stands today (Assuming no dilution to the shares - which there probably will be some as the project rolls on)