Member Info for Scrodingerscat

Target 50p... when our most critical analyst Jeffries has a hold at 50p, really insightful. The noobs who crawl out of the woodwork on these drops only to resort to attacking reasonable longer term posters, great way to make friends. Well done for providing a tiny bit of liquidity, do you want a pat on the back or a party hosted in your honour for buying stock? Like many others I have been steadily increasing my holding over years and do not feel the need to shout about it. There are some posters you should listen to with actual interest Steven B for one. This guy nah.

For those with any patience beyond the attention span of woodlice with their tiny holdings, with no knowledge beyond a price target, just think about that prize possible this year ie. a decision on Kenya and an actual realistic profit for 2021.

Go on then oiluser care to explain how re-finance affects FCF generation in H1? Which quite frankly is all that matters as far as H1 is concerned (plus hedging), we know the debt value including the cost of interest. That's aside from the book build costs which granted will be a few million $. I'm sure you are not trying to mislead but all of the debt liabilities will be on the balance sheet but split across due within 12 months or greater than 12 months, the disposals alone this year cover the cost of the tickets interest there or thereabouts (the disposal will also likely equate to a net loss from the balance sheet). The production numbers up to May are on the Ghanaian website, you can work out Tullows share from Ten and Jubilee.

Volume is low, but nobody has any real knowledge about what exactly will come out of results, you think they will be poor then fine sell. Just remember the board last year wrote down the price of oil from $65 to $60 last year so they could easily justify plumping up the balance sheet by reversing that write down to negate the balance sheet hits mentioned. Hedging will come at a cost, which I imagine they are aggressively addressing but the market is unlikely to see this as a negative.

$4.4M coming into the coffers a day at this level and the asset disposal cash and you are worried. Some people have zero patience. Trading update on the horizon and in a couple of months H1 results will be in the public domain...
bearing in mind we have seen 6 months of oil streets ahead of the 10 year plan and Ghana is currently producing 2K Bpd ahead of the CMD forecast. 60p will be in the rear view mirror at some point just like 10p,20p,30p & 40p. Jitters at $76 oil jeez.

I actually bought more stock on this news, and just wanted to say well done everyone who voted and made their voice count.

Well, well, well. Who'd have thought it, Cartmell out. This is great news, never opposed a resolution on an AGM before and found myself on the winning side.

TPG needs someone to do a complete overhaul, cost cutting is the name of the game for the next CEO. For starters there's offices/sites we clearly can't afford, that they could look to get rid of... with home working being the norm now. Also pet peeve has always been recruitment, there is clearly too many staff, I used to read the job's board to see the kind of jobs being advertised but after a while it annoys you because it's just more mouths to feed rather than driving actual growth. I'm not heartless but ultimately TPG makes a loss every year. Also someone needs to sit down and rethink the bidding and contracting processes, margins have been awful but contracts now need to have some flexibility baked in, just blaming logistics, contractors or staffing problems is not good enough. If you are losing money on a contract you need to be able to identify that quickly and have a plan B to fall back on. PC was massively passive here, he basically has just left the group constituent parts to do as they please, so he has fallen on his sword for his failures.

I should probably add that the non-op minus the 6,000bpd disposed is forecasted to bring in 16,500 bpd in 2021. So take from that what you will, 16,500 non-op with production in Ghana for may at 42,000 . So that's 58,500 bpd without new wells and for balance, declines or shutdowns not baked in.

I don't think anyone has been suggesting to ignore the disposals, I have been basing my figures on minus 6000, but for 2021 this is money already in the bank. Ghana production is currently better than expected according to May it's 42000 bpd. With potentially 35.48% of 12,000 - 16,000 to add for the completed Jubilee wells in Q3. That's not getting carried away at all.

Who know's it has never been explicitly said, that is that they included them in the forecast or not. So I would guess that at the very least they have factored in the shutdowns for this year. Dorothy was definitely of the under promise over deliver category and Rahul has carried on with the same sentiment. Like I said though I fully expect the range just to move up a belt notch simply because the declines have not been as big as laid out when the business plan was pitched in November.

Saudi Arabia and UAE want $80, Russia doesn't. Expect Biden to start applying pressure on OPEC+ if it reaches $80 to increase output.

H1 is looking good, 62,000 bpd taking into consideration the 20% declines were predicted pre-disposals. Slift and others are still clinging to projections made on CMD, they are clearly old hat now, can't see a revised production forecast not being produced later this year. Even with shutdowns in September it's looking better than predicted by around 5%... touch wood. GLA.

Correction now £3.6K what a dog this is.

Stokey12 yeah no problem click on the AGM download. My £3K loss is peanuts compared to some LTH's but always happy to help a fellow sharing some of the pain with this frustrating company.

https://www.tpgroupglobal.com/investors/results-and-presentations

I don't normally vote in AGM's but thinking about the change needed here I thought sitting and moaning about things doesn't help. So albeit only 85,000 shares I have sent my voting instructions to my broker to vote against resolution 3. (re-election of Cartmell). Let's hope Canaccord, Close Bros and M&G are as ****ed as the rest of us LTH's.

Jubileey do you just pretend to be ignorant or did you have to work at it? Uganda was and still is a white elephant, do you know how much it would cost to develop and have you also noticed it still hasn't received FID. None of what has transpired recently could have happened without the sale. Very few would take a punt on Uganda because it's landlocked and the government there is as dodgy as they come. The pipeline costs are huge, they tried to fleece is over Capital Gains in round one and Total's CEO has had to visit the president personally just to grease the wheels, without traction in the next 12 months this could easily fall into a stranded asset category.

TT I get the need to put a positive spin on things but even when you take out the one off items, and the hit from the disposal it's still a hefty loss. The accounts also advise the same conditions are still present with a chance of further deterioration still being on the cards. Investing £2.3M on AI during this period is either a blinder or really ill advised only time will tell, it's looking like the latter as there are no real big contract wins so far in 2021 and we are now in June.

TPG is currently, nor during it's entire existence priced projects collectively where it actually makes a profit, or ever deployed any capital discipline (the disposal is testament to that, even lift BV dropped... money down the drain) Who does bid costing and who is deciding where money is invested because I can see plenty being wasted only need to look at the last 2 sets of accounts. Margins are clearly tight and this has been outlined clearly and made worse by the pandemic that's obvious. But this a dog of a share and you are looking at 2022 or even 2023 for a recovery. The vultures are here because they think they can get a quick quid off a tiny bounce, good luck to them. I'm booking this as a loss at the end of March 2022.

Hard to disagree with. I'm holding till the end of the tax year as the wider market recovery means I could do with a loss to crystallize against other gains. The group is rudderless and the only hope they have is that the II's have lost their patience and force a change. If you are betting on hydrogen trains you could be waiting 5 years plus and the shareprice could plausibly be 3p by then. Fresh leadership is needed to tackle the problems across the group. Cartmell has failed to deliver the targets set out at the rights issue... spectacularly (well short of £100M revenue and a £10M loss for your troubles).

Same old story here and you could tell it was coming a mile off, compared with the positivity the board oozed in 2019. Ignore the statutory loss lads we think adjusted operating profit is a better measure... fiddlesticks. 2020 is a wake up call, losses this size on a revenue of £69M are unsustainable, for heavens sake look at some cost control and start by reconsidering Cartmells £500K a year salary. Will H1 of 2021 be much better, with the contracts announced thus far I doubt it. TPG is a vehicle to simply pay board members way above the market rate of a company of this size and have loads of staff and sites that the books suggest it can't probably afford. I need to look at the numbers again in more detail but at a glance this is poor.

Each to their own. Potential upside is that the SP has more legs to it when H1 results are out there, the reverse is true if they disappoint. Boils down to production, production, production let's hope it's not even close to the 20% decline forecasted much earlier in the year. But ultimately some fundamentals for 2021 are needed for the SP to consolidate higher. Hopeful of some news on Kenya before the end of Q2, as mentioned by Rahul in an investor call earlier this year they are looking to submit a revised field development plan.

I agree entirely. The US is an entirely different beast, but I would point to the seismic change in pensions. If you are on a final salary or average salary pension people tend to not care how your pension fund manager invested your funds as you know what you were getting out at the end of it, well aside from a total fund collapse. With pensions in the main now directly linked to performance and invested in the stock/bond markets a lot more people are having to take a more active role in their retirement pot for fear of a shortfall. Good and bad in different ways, but the demand in the UK for brokers has gone up so that surely is a start for a more financially engaged populus.

Good discussion today gold star for DestituteBroker.

I don't doubt that it's within the rules, I did say permissable within my comment. Manipulating within the rules is still manipulation but not defined as manipulation by the market... I get that and thought that's what my comment was highlighting, apologies if that didn't come across as intended.

Aside from that, how exactly it is done doesn't matter from a PI's perspective as collectively we are unlikely to have the software, knowledge or licensing to execute such transactions. Multiple small sells/buys in any direction in low volume markets do as they intend and that's shift the price in a desired direction. I don't tend to openly moan about shorting and my comments earlier this week was more from playing devil's advocate and taking an opposing view for balance. The marketplace I firmly stand by the notion is anything but fair, capital makes the world go round after all, but arguably gives those with significant capital an advantage of a few country miles compared to the rest of us.

I do draw a distinction of funds in general as most are made up of employees, pensions or general investors. So wishing them ill it's not something I tend to do with the exception of Odey Asset Management.

Supercooper, I agree a lot of the comments are repetitive and boring but surely a messageboard is about posters venting frustrations as well as encouraging reasoned discussion. You or I are not the message board police. Surely you have a valuation of your own, so why would you need anyone else's or to post your own and why do you think that's interesting. Personally I don't care what any of you on here value the stock at, for all I know you could have been in the bottom set for mathematics in school. Same as I wouldn't take investment advice of a stranger at a bus stop.

Counter to your valuation, Kosmos net debt $2.2B, SP = 220, shares in issue roughly about a third of TLW. Stake in Ghana, revenues half of TLW (I hold no stake in Kosmos).