Member Info for Scrodingerscat

It's interesting though because no matter how much this is walked down we don't seen any significant changes in the shorts or any big buyers emerge. I'm on the record as a LTH and I'm not going to consider reducing until 2024 at the earliest so the only real damage I can see being done is to stop losses and market makers. All this effort to bring the price down a few more pence but if nobody is really selling at these levels what's the point? They are just betting on frustration kicking in but realistically a good or even a steady as she goes trading update will encourage most PI's to hold for YE results. You can force the price down as far as you like but if nobody sells or you drop it too far you just encourage new buyers and trigger a rally. I don't even buy the oil hedge argument as there are better options like BP, TLW is not tracking oil, oil up 20% the SP is down 38%.

We need bigger players with sticky hands other than PI's to take the opposing bet to our short friends, because 2 to 3% decline every day is just pure bot work, it works both ways but we need a new II on board, that Spanish fund for instance had a positive impact. Even the reported short stack still need to buy in at some point and who really is going to sell at these levels, apart from a small amount who get fed up, particularly when we are only a few months away from having actual fundamentals that highlight just how ridiculous this current SP is. I don't expect there to be a short squeeze but if the trading update is good then I just don't understand who exactly shorters are going to buy off in the low 40's apart from GS.

I suspect the only seller's are bots and triggered stop losses. The SP really isn't in touch with reality, realistically we could be looking at $150M as per guidance @ $75 oil or even possibly $200M profit at YE. $660M market cap with $1.4 - $1.5B turnover and a profit of £150M equates to a PE ratio of around 6, the average for the sector is 16.

Dreamachine your constant ramping know's no bounds. It's tedious just like your smiley faces. When you predict these rockets in the shareprice that never quite happen the way you suggest do you ever feel guilty for misleading board readers?

For the record all brokers are pointing towards the 60 - 70p range it's just a matter of when. You can try and claim things will be different in the short term but realistically the recovery in the SP is not going to be fully reflected until 2023 when production is back to 2018 levels and the gas in Ghana becomes commercial, this is a buy and hold no brainer or just hold you will be rewarded in 18 months it's not a get rich quick share and certainly not every 5 minutes like Lord of the ramp artists seems to suggest everytime it posts. Just remember this is the same dreamachine that predicted the end of days not so long ago and encouraged people to sell.

Fatoomch for the record voting rights does not directly equate to number of shareholders. Your entire defense was that SAG couldn't possibly engage in any disruptive behaviour...incorrect already. I told you to expect another meeting shortly after the last one and what has happened? If you deployed any critical thinking you'd think why are SAG publically attacking the board in the manner in which they are? A backroom deal has clearly been done with enough II's, they know they have enough votes to call meetings and win and the shareprice will suffer, Canaccord will do nothing. You were warned about SAG being a wolf in sheeps clothing but you ignored it because you thought of a quick 6.5p, well the RNS clearly states that SAG thinks that is a premium that is now over, it's clear to anyone with sense that they will obfiscate and disrupt now for 10 months and I expect the takeover offer to be sub 4p possibly less. A decapitated board is just the start. Well done round of applause for you.

It was obvious what they were going to do here, seen it before and SAG have done it before. They will force meeting after meeting this is value destruction 101. Next meeting to be called will be to call for a full "independent" audit, auditors selected by SAG. I would say I told you so fatoomch but I suspect that you were never really an honest broker. Bad times, we ain't getting 6.5p that's for sure.

Fuzzy logic

Hangin' out with Howard Marks
We're the three musketeers, yeah
Gather round with your beers, yeah
There's no need for the fear
Throw a penny into my plastic satellite dish
And make a wish
I wish you farewell
Buy, buy
Sell, sell
I bid you goodbye
Sell, sell
Sky high
Sell, sell

I would ignore Jubileey on Uganda it doesn't understand nuance and TLW would have failed an RBL determination long before oil started its meteoric rise. Under TLW's old finance terms it had to demonstrate that it could clear the maturing bonds 18 months in advance of the maturity date. Without that asset cash, only a raving lunatic would've gone into a RBL determination, that's not even mentioning still no FID and not enough cash to develop. In TLW's hands Uganda was effectively a stranded asset and Total knew the score, nobody else wanted Uganda even at such a heavily discounted sale price because of the well documented issues with the pipeline costs, dealing with the government and its blatant corruption.

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-upgrades-Tullow-Oils-Corporate-Family-Rating-to-B3-stable--PR_456704?stop_mobi=yes

No mention of this but TLW has been upgraded back to B3 today.

Just remember PC got half a million a year. How many times did he buy shares?

I reckon one or possibly more II's have asked for them to step down to secure their votes. But if you don't buy shares in the company you are a director of and you can't award yourself shares because the shareprice has in effect not budged since 2017 then you only have yourself to blame. The amount of shares owned by the board even including Cartmell and before this started was pathetic.

Cacher, agreed there has been good overall progress. However with copper and iron ore effectively halfed from its highs and a H1 loss do we not think that Adam's big salary rise was maybe a little premature?

Well pleased as punch with the update, Happy can do one clearly needs to eat ice cream and cheer up because debt reduction means absolutely nothing now, we have 5 years left on those notes. Right now is about drilling which everyone knows is not an overnight job and takes months to benefit from a successful drill.

I like the consistency with Rahul, since last year he has delivered what he has said via trading updates and the CMD plan, no overpromising ahem McDade. We are only seeing the benefit of one drill right now and by 2022 that will be 2 more in Jubilee, 1 at Ten and 1 or 2 in Gabon. It's a slow ramp up, but really I'm happy to hold for a few years yet TLW in my opinion will be a 100K bopd producer in Africa alone and commercialisation of gas changes the dynamic somewhat in Ghana as Ghana doesn't get that gas for free forever.

Things to look forward to JV announcements in relation to Kenya, a potential credit re-rate, analyst rating reviews, August production numbers for Ghana. Anybody who held from 7p give yourself a pat on the back. GLA except January2.

Poor results but still better than I expected. Cuts of £1M are clearly just not enough. SAG will no doubt win the vote now, it's pretty much game over for TPG's independence. Cartmell is really the one to blame here, they can point to the pandemic but what did any of the board do over the last 18 months? Pathetic really and it's sad to say but they deserve to go.

fatoomch I've only just read this "If 6 months down the line, despite posting details of increased revenue, that company reveals its spent £2.7M of the £7m drawn down - would you say that is a positive?" Wait what? I gave you the rope and you just carried on. Cash now vs Cash at the end of December does not necessarily mean what you think it means. Like I said before without seeing the same comparison in the companies other assets or the same comparison in liabilities then you are just making your own narrative.

The jig could be up, just think if there's some good FCF generation or heaven forbid an actual profit of a decent amount then our mcap could look quite ridiculous by the end of this week. That's not even including other news, exciting week.

Lutra they are all coming out the woodwork now to extol the virtues of a sale to SAG. I'm ignoring all the rubbish half baked reasons they are throwing out now not one of the arguments add up.

For the record I've been accumulating since PC's departure and I've submitted my request to my broker today 484,000 votes rejecting all resolutions... I'm hopeful that the majority of pi's and ii's see that being short sighted here is only a sure fire way for money to be taken from our pockets and put into SAG's. SAG can have my shares but certainly not for 6.5p.

Fatoomch do you really need this explaining to you? Cash or cash equivalents are just one of the items found on a balance sheet, without the remaining items there is no narrative to be drawn despite your ridiculous comment. For the record I'm chartered, but if you want to continue the financial argument go ahead.

Fatoomch the going concern statement will address that. Again you make massive assumptions as the cash figure in the YE's included a full draw down of the revolving facility, so to counter your assumption it's quite easy to say that TPG are no longer fully drawn. Like I said in a previous post mathematics is not your forte because you have an answer for X without having figures for Y & Z. Flip a coin you are either right or wrong but you just dont have the variables to come to the conclusion you have.