Member Info for Scrodingerscat

Nice try, spot price average $76 in 2021 and TLW is as you well know limited to the upside on 75% hedges.

But you know all this because this was all you argued about last year, you were adamant about an equity raise to resolve the debt issue. God knows where the SP would be now possibly at sub 10p if they listened to you. The hedges exist as a prudent measure but the current high % is to please the bondholders and will be reduced next year to 50% and likely the debt will be refinanced again in 2023. Under $2B by end of 2023 on current trend but likely closer to a conservative $1.7B - $1.8B if a JV partner farms in.

Delluded.. your question was stupid, I can dig it up for you if you'd like? Changing the goal posts... again but did you or did you not say (and it's here in black and white) net debt would be $2.3B? Now you think you're a smart guy but even you can read an RNS is it $2.1B or $2.3B? You're a broken clock that still hasn't been right once let alone twice yet.

Also for those who don't know happy very well for the record the reason he dislikes the current regime so much is that he asked a question during investor Q&A a while ago and they laughed at his question. Had a short open at the time as well. Very bitter individual.

Happy do explain when you were right, as you only harped on about debt reduction being too slow:

- TLW has no choice but to instigate an equity raise - wrong
- Net debt reduction to $2.3B - wrong
- TLW will not be able to refinance when credit rating downgraded - wrong
- VAT challenge with Ghana will be lost - Looking like this will be wrong soon too.

You change the goalposts to suit your narrative, looking for confirmation bias at every turn.

Adieuk32 institutional investors don't as a rule take the short term view as it's difficult to unwind positions without spooking, were as PI's seem to focus exclusively on day to day. Yes production numbers are disappointing but with 6 drills this year in Ghana and 2 possible in Non-op it is more than likely this is the last year we will hear mention of 50K bracket bopd in production forecasts. If it is not much higher than 2022 in 2023 heads will roll IMO.

The shareprice action is reacting like it was at fair value before (it's not and has not been at fair value for nearly 2 1/2 years), a company that is posting $250M FCF generated in the last period. Just need to ride this sentiment out, why worry about today or tomorrow when this year: pre-emption to be finalised, 6 wells to drill in Ghana, a wildcard exploration drill in Guyana, 2 Non-OP drills and a decision on Kenya to come (unless you believe this is stranded asset). Let the traders jump in and out and good luck to them, many have been caught out many have got in and out successfully. I'm 100% up and SB is up around 300% so he's got more profits to crystallize than any of us put together and he's happy to stick.

We all know Ten is complicated but the new ntomme well targets if successful do not have the same geological issues as existing wells. Any slight improvement in Ten will have a bigger net gain after pre-emption due to the stake % when compared with Jubilee.

Nice to hear that Stephen. I think some people quickly forget that without hedges TLW would've gone bust in 2020. The company is aiming to be a 100,000 bopd producer, with gas revenue in Ghana as a cherry on top to look forward to. When not if new Kenya JV farm in partner announced then even with a 50% farm down that becomes a reality with only time being the enemy and that puts revenue over $2.1B even at $60 oil.

The plan was 7 years from the CMD, we are only one year in and they are already ahead of that initial forecast by $150M. The slide in Ten has been counterbalanced by high oil price and the pre-emption rights acquisition.

They all come out of the woodwork on results day. Re-read your post 75% is hedged so 25% is exposed to current oil prices plus 100% of pre-emption production when finalised until hedged in later quarters with a higher minimum and maximum call. 75% hedges has been known since re-finance. Time to take a holiday it's muppet central on here at the minute, all that seem to know more than the rest of us after one update.

January2 messenger without warped spin... is that so? You've cherry picked what information you have regurgitated more like, the $100M is clearly stated as FCF minus the pre-emption and at $75 oil, facts you have clearly omitted. Let's just ignore oil price shall we and assume Kosmos deal falls through and Kenya is mothballed, care to place a wager on $100M being the FCF figure at the end of the year?

January2 honest broker? hmmm.

$100M does not account for:

- pre-emption (economic effective April 2021 when finalised).
- increased capex allocation (benefits will be seen in 2023).
- Gas in Ghana after free 200bcf gas agreement is completed (on track for Q4 or Q1 2023).
- A farm down in Kenya could net anything from $100M - $400M (conservative at $89 oil) depending on %.
- $89 Brent.

I think the disappointment does centre on the production forecast which in turn means un-hedged exposure are not maximised to the current high oil prices. Hindsight aside probably should have gone ahead with the original shutdown planned in 2021 but with the unknown of Delta and emerging variants at the time nobody can criticise the board for pushing it back to Q2 of this year.

But the hedges are there as part of our agreed re-finance so RD hands are tied and means there is far less risk to the downside for 2022 if oil prices collapse again. Nobody expected a Saudi Russia price war last time round afterall. Hedges will drop back to 50% from May 2023.

Guidance is up from 2021 when pre-emption finalised. Net debt reduction of $300M and FCF of $250M are both great positives.

Realistically will people be happy with $200M of FCF generated in 2022. They should be because although there has been a drop today the current shareprice is and does not equate to a company that made a profit in 2021 and is suggesting a profit in 2022. Average PE ratio is 11 for our sector we are at a PE approx. at half of that currently.

Interesting to see Kosmos up on the news and TLW down though.

For balance there are positives like FCF beating estimates and $300M net debt reduction (for the record Happy was on record saying it would only be $100M reduction so he's way out on that one). However, the declines in Ten have effectively reversed any positives from the drills done all of last year. The question is does RD focus on sticking to the current drilling programme or revise it because although there is an inflection point on Ten's overall decline it does not appear to be stabilising anytime soon. Disappointed with the production forecast but they have time and cash to sort it this year.

I think the aim as advised in previous RNS was to have 75% hedged 2021 and 2022 falling back to 50% in 2023, but for obvious reasons as the Kosmos pre-emption hasn't been finalised then you would assume this production won't be part of the hedged numbers for 2022. So my guess hedges will be around 75% of production pre-acquisition. Which they may address for later quarters but more likely be part of the 50% hedge in 2023. So back of a fagpacket 35% of production sees the benefit of these high oil prices in 2022.

AIMlightweight it's more to do with the lack of historical revenue the market likes certainty and €8M reflecting an £89M market cap is currently more than fair, the free float and the volume of shares in issue are also a big problem for SP growth. Deals being finalised and revenue ticking up will start to address this but this share trades at a premium because ESG is hot but that won't be forever which is why the board at somepoint will have to buy back shares as 8.6 billion is too many and is the true cost of addressing the historical debt and growth problems.

Finally some positivity here. Success here isn't just about the raw numbers (which are steady, not jaw dropping and far flung from PH's 1500 bopd total production guff mooted in 2019) but allows BLOE to self fund another target and or consider taking on some debt to have an accelerated drilling programme without tapping shareholders in an equity raise.

y11-shx are you purposefully being obtuse? There are plenty of reasons why a buyer would want to remain hidden as they are pretty much the same reason a seller wouldn't. Why are you still here if you sold up for starters? If you no longer have skin in the game and are not contributing meaningfully then it's obvious why you are still lurking. TLW is a ripening banana and you are a fruit fly. FOMO.

I don't understand why anyone would sell up before an announcement on Kenya or a trading update that is pointing towards a decent one.

FCF was reported to come in at $150M at the half year report based on $70 oil and FID in Uganda. Well no FID in Uganda (Not surprising, but no $75M) but oil spot price averaged $76.52 for the period so quite likely $100M generated for 2021. Pre-emption rights off Kosmos not finalised so not going to appear on the books until 2022 (at current oil prices the transaction pays itself off quickly - economic effective from April 2021).

BloodyRedBaron I have read opinions from Rupert Hargreaves but what I find is they flip a coin and call heads and tails then highlight to their subscribers they are right as they covered both outcomes. The same Rupert Hargreaves was saying TLW was overvalued not so long ago. The Motley Fool really is amateur hour and I'm surprised anybody actually pays for their paid content. FT and Bloomberg are the only subscriptions worth having, paying someone else to give you investment ideas screams to me you are better off giving your money to a fund manager.

Antonvb I think he meant in relation to PE ratio not share price, same PE ratio based on analyst forecasts as BP would put us about just over £1. But I do think BP is undervalued and considering oilers in the USA are on average trading at 20x plus, then BP has legs to rise further still (disclosure I have no holding in BP).

Lordnaz left for Metro, that takeover failure must've been hard to take but when you roll the dice. Nightmaremachine sold up at a loss to move onto boohoo where he/she is underwater again add to that lost big on Amigo and Cineworld. Everyone should take heed of these recent successes and do the opposite of dreammachine. You'd think they would learn from jumping ship every 5 minutes, karma in action blatant lieing rampers deserve all they get they are just as bad as shorters trying to influence shares by duping honest investors.

The art in realising value is a little bit of luck mixed with holding onto your winners, you don't make millions by selling as soon as you hit 10%.

Haven't heard from Stephen Beetham in a while but he must be pleased because he has a bigger chunk of equity here than all of us PI's on here put together (17p average from memory).

Geowiz TLW is not on AIM it has premium listing on FTSE. Just because you drop off the FTSE 250 doesn't mean you are relegated to AIM. I wont bore people with all the differences but the main ones are governance and reporting requirements. There are plenty of premium listed plc's that are not constituents of the headline indeces, reason chiefly is market cap.