Member Info for Scrodingerscat

MosquitoSqudron I don't doubt that it is a good deal but take your rose tints off for one minute, there could have been some mention on the RNS about the projected value of the deal and likely revenues but everyone's been left to piece that information together from the information supplied.

"An offtake contract is a contract pursuant to which the operator agrees to sell, and the purchaser agrees to buy, refined gold produced from the mine over which the offtake is granted. The key commercial terms include those relating to the amount of gold to be purchased, the delivery mechanics, and the payment terms.



Under the terms of the contract, the purchaser has the right to purchase gold from the underlying mine at any reference price from a list of specified reference prices in a defined period (the "Quotation Period"), which is 7 days. The purchaser then subsequently sells the gold, realizing a margin equal to the difference between the purchaser's sale price, and the reference price chosen by the purchaser during the Quotation Period.



The key terms of the Offtake are for delivery of 50% of all gold produced from the Sugar Zone Mine up to a total of 375,000 ounces, of which approximately 335,000 ounces remain."

Strange how this one wasn't funded from cash reserves, I guess the market hasn't taken too kindly to the further dilution and effectively increased stake for Orion. Anyways Q1 update not far off should be our best quarter yet, but let's hope the market glosses over 2021 figures as I'm not expecting the 2021 year ends to look rosy as a result of no sales from our zones at Koolyanobbing.

Spudsoil well written but to point at the fly sat in your ointment. That's all fair and well but roughly BLOE should be producing 500 - 600 boepd per day not 2,500 bopd so even 2 wells a year that bring in 200 - 250 boepd is currently enough to steadily increase production over time.

We all know that all wells decline over time but even if oil declines by 80% in all wells in 2 years then you are still left with the gas which has a much slower decline rate. My thoughts and my understanding of how the company was marketed on IPO was that the oil in the short term would provide the capital to fund the extensive gas infrastructure required to provide stable revenue for the longer term. At this stage of BLOE lifecycle then 2 drill successes this year is enough, not stellar for investors I get that.

I don't doubt that they will be looking to sort some debt out to increase that number in 2023, but currently they need to prove to potential lenders that this is not a wild west investment. Like has already been mentioned go cap in hand to the market again for another raise then their goose is cooked. A loan facility or 5 year bonds are what they should be looking at, but they need to build up some liquidity and pump up that balance sheet to make this more feasible. Self-funded drills this year are ok with me.

I have the audacity because you are still wrong Google natural gas price, 1 mmbtu is trading at $4.58. Look pal if you really think BLOE is going to post $5.6M in gas sales at Q1 update there's nothing I can do to help you. You ain't even close and if that's what you based your investment decision on you need to exit this game now, or go back to school.

Haha go on prove it. Gas is not trading at 10,000% ... fact. You will realise in a few weeks when they post the trading update what utter tripe you are talking. Think about it why would gas be worth 5 times as much as crude? To get one boepd you times 1000 cubic feet price by 6. Google 1000 cubic feet gas price and come back to me.

No it doesn't try again. EIA figures had gas in a range of $4 - $6 per 1000 cubic feet last year and it is not uncommon to see gas trade at $2 - $3, block sells to Georgia at a discount. Hint 6000 divided by 1000 is? On no planet is it $500. Look at the gas sales from the last trading update gas prices have not increased by that much that we are now getting $22.2M per quarter as opposed to the previous $100K we did before.

You can keep posting it doesn't make it true it's currently $27. So where did you get $500 from?

BLOE will make around $160K - $200K per quarter from gas not $23M, my god this BB has descended into total drivel.

EarlofAim total nonsense figures. Do you even know how much cubic feet of gas is in 1 boepd? $500 haha you're an idiot, it's more like $30 - $40 if they were getting market value which they are not due to the agreement with the government of Georgia.

I'm in denial about nothing. Why would I panic one year in to a seven year plan exactly, which where they have deployed capital that has equated to a 20K bopd gross improvement?

You were $100M out (cue some excuse). If net debt is static how has gearing fallen from 3 to 2.2? RD has accelerated delivery timetable to 1.5x by the end of 2023 on $75 oil.

Not an equity raise again what is your problem? They haven't even discovered light oil in Guyana yet why would they raise cash for something that is not 2P. You are eloquent but still completely deluded.

Onedaysoonish I'm surprised I even have to explain this, the old finance deal was taken out on an entirely different footing we had a higher credit rating back then, oil price was solid/stable and still had Uganda. You try and get a $1.8B finance deal off the ground with a junk rating, imminent maturities and just after a period of your commodity price hitting an all time low. Let's see what interest rate or covenants you come back with and we will compare. FFS everyone thinks it's like buying a credit card, it's borrowing $1.8B not £10K.

speakingalpha agree entirely and then someone else raises there head to complain about hedging. Getting the company refinanced at the time was touch and go, I don't miss the RBL determinations for sure and after all creditors were twitching at the $1.2B net loss that had just been posted albeit mostly writedowns and our illustrious credit downgrade. We didn't have bags of time with senior notes maturing, timing is everything and if we'd been able to wait a further 6- 12 months before refinancing there would have been more room to manoeuvre, but time was not on our side and Les Wood has clearly taken all that flak, could he have gotten a better deal who knows. RD has already hinted at refinancing next year so lets see how that plays out.

With regards the FDP its actually working on the face of it. I mean what did people expect from last year. 2 drillship's drilling simultaneously and infrastructure put in place in tandem, ridiculous unless you are a supermajor. Capex would have been through the roof and they'd be moaning about even bigger losses. You are spot on when you highlight the payback over the medium to long term for each well. The declines in Ten yes have been disappointing but this is mostly outside the control of TLW as this is natural decline occurring on old wells. I'm happy to wait for the FDP to bear fruit.

Happy is just one of those individuals that likes to think he/she is smarter than all of us and can predict the future based solely on the past. Has no grounds for suggesting the FDP will fail other than his own opinion, an opinion without any evidence . I always will remember his smug question at a previous conference call when he had his tiny little short bet on, where he was laughed at.

Happyinvestor100 I don't know how you can say failed, we are only one year in to a 5 year drilling campaign.

You know the total sum of nothing about the geology, now unless you are sitting in front of all the seismic's then you are just again giving your one sided narrative. Multi-drilling campaign started in April 2021 (technically not even a year) Jubilee has had 4 drills of which 2 are producers, a water injector and 1 work over. Production increased from 70K bopd to over 90K bopd.

They have only drilled one gas injector in Ten, so failure here can't even be suggested yet because they haven't done any production drilling, do I really need to explain what a support well is? 3 reservoir targets have been mentioned specifically now and if all 3 turn out to be duds then you have a point but not till then, the boards well program may have been tweaked slightly if they could of anticipated the speed of decline in wells but not by much, Jubilee getting to 100K bopd first was always going to be the focus. With 54% after pre-emption it's not going to take much to see that net production number bounce back but we have to wait until the strategic wells and infrastructure is in place to exploit the new target areas of the field.

You are also completely ignoring Kenya, Guyana, Argentina and Côte d'Ivoire. What are these then... boiled eggs?

YoungEngineer still only ever appearing to stick a boot in on big drops?

The production story you have a point but this is what happens when you don't have a lot of diverse assets. Espoir losing 12 weeks does matter but Ten is the story here and it's easy to point and say it's declining significantly which it is but the board seems to believe that it can reverse this. With a 54% stake after pre-emption 2 producers can fix the fields overall output problem. So people can either believe that and wait till 2023 or sell now. The market has written off Ten but Rahul hasn't, so we will see in time whether he's right or not but no offence I trust the views of Kosmos and Tullows respective leadership over someone who only comes on here to snipe. You make more friends with balance.

I need to go over the numbers in a lot more detail which I will do later. But the reaction this morning seems to have gone against what generally was a good year. The net loss is attributable to what are in effect one off items (impairments, restructuring costs, exploration write offs) and provisions, interesting that provisions have increased to $58.7M.

Knee jerk reaction this morning to a bottom line number that's not really surprising, but we should be on the FTSE 250 to stay, I think this time round.

Sorry haven't seen this posted, apologies if someone has already.

Some quick mathematics.

44,213 bopd net to TLW.

Key takeaways:
- Jubilee maintains production over 90,000 bopd (32,163 net)
- Ten continues to decline but currently above the higher end estimate of 12K (12,050 net)
- Ghana production is currently ahead of forecast (28K - 30K Jubilee, Ten 11K - 12K) key period will be the scheduled shutdown in Q2.

So if non-op is performing at the bottom of forecast range, group production sits around 60,213 and at the top end 63,213.

Best case scenario unhedged for January 21,963 bopd, low end 18,963.

https://www.petrocom.gov.gh/production-figures/

This board does come out with some corkers sometimes, so you lose money the higher the oil price goes haha. Yeah maybe a higher cost base particularly on transportation/shipping because diesel is higher but economies of scale kick in because you are not shipping one barrel of oil at a time. But definetly not on hedges because it isn't 100% of TLW's TLW's barrelage that's capped. Jeez the fact this needs explaining.

On Ukraine I'd rather conflict was avoided $120 oil is going to hammer everyone at the worst possible time. The magnitsky act needs to be deployed more meaningfully to freeze assets but as the City of London is effectively a washing machine for Russian money that contributes funding to the Conservative Party I can't see that happening. I wonder what a BB would be saying about the Sudetenland if that was happening now. Russia is a mafia run state, no one person should have that much military might without checks and balances. I can't see a de-esclation without sanctions that cripple Russia economically and without China on board it's pointless.

Radius I think what was worse was that people and SAG's cheerleaders (they know who they are) were adamant this would not happen and voted along with SAG. Shot themselves and us in the foot. If David Lindsay was still in control the update would read very different not saying it would have been good but it could have been balanced. No actual substance to this update. What was the revenue at the end of 2021, what is the current orderbook value? Lopsided reporting... impairments, exceptions, paper losses, provisions and intangible write downs are only part of the story and just pointing to the bogeyman under the bed. If you take the update at face value TPG didn't trade in 2021 and no inclination of 2022 when we are in February.

It's disgusting what Martyn Ratcliffe is doing here and only a fool could look at what's happening and see that the only shareholders he's concerned about are that of SAG. The usual suspects will appear to defend or point blame elsewhere. This isn't kitchen sinking it's a clear intent to destroy value.

It gives me no pleasure because like no doubt the rest of us I'm sitting on a significant loss but fatoomch here goes... I told you so. Leopards don't change their spots after all.

Arise Martyn Ratcliffe maximum damage, wolf in the sheep pen indeed. Provisions really? No actual mention of trading revenue? Just impairments and losses then.

I predicted this after SAG built their stake.
- Take control of the board - check
- CEO notice to resign - check
- Take control of RNS communication/newsflow - check
- Highlight a problem(s) that requires an audit (paper losses) - check
- Restrict all newsflow - check
Now I'm not saying everything was rosy in the garden but can people not see that this business update is skewed to 11, to push Martyn's narrative. All he has to do is reduce newsflow now until the 12 months from the last time SAG purchased shares to takeover here for penny's. A real shame on our II's for allowing this to happen but there is more than likely a deal in the background to appease, as not one exited yet.

Scotslovetrump not like you to moan about the seemingly absent correlation of the SP with oil, the obvious answer here is with 75% hedged production there shouldn't be because there isn't a 100% correlation between the 2. Here is what's currently true, up 66% from this time last year. So if you invested in January at 32p that's a good return. This share has really weeded out the day traders and what we are seeing is a bit more stability. News will come some time this year and it won't be on a trading update. Good or bad a Kenya announcement will either set this lower or provide the interest for investors to buy in and push the demand for our shares higher.

Oiluser it looks like you don't understand more than reading it wrong, 2022 calls top at $78 with oil at $91 they are currently getting $78 not $55, bottom is $55 so TLW get $55 on hedged barrelage if oil drops to $55 and under. It's really not hard to understand.