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There will be around 2.65 billion shares in issue after the merger so there is dilution but in the strictest sense this an all share purchase of CNE. Combined group will not be worth 48p well north of that and that's something that I'm prepared to say.

It's everytime Goldman Sachs RNS. Happend 3 times now in the last 18 months. I can only speculate but it looks like they are loaning out more shares again. It's not as high as it has been though, I suspect the bet is now that Kenya becomes unviable and the merger doesn't happen. Speculative yes but the silence on progress from TLW has not helped. But equally we could be in a non-disclosure period either way form 2.9 was re-issued again recently so maybe an acknowledgement of some underhand tactics currently at work.

That's your view. The chair did advise there are new faces (including himself) and they were in a closed period. I suspect that some will buy in at some point, but it really is no more than symbolic, I don't care how many shares they own personally, it's ill advised not to own though because you don't get a vote on resolutions for example that impact your job, but each to their own. With an ongoing merger in the background and Kenya developments it is unlikely there will be purchases anytime soon. The one thing the FCA actually does keep on top of is any sniff of insider dealing.

I haven't watched the video back but do remember watching online, was this the guy who complained about the lack of a spread and started talking about his diabetes? His questions were border line silly and he should have sold years ago, he claimed to have owned when they were valued at £18. You could tell he's just after a dividend and it was a disgrace that he hadn't had one for years, even though the last one they paid out contributed to the mess we are currently in.

The brakes come off whenever volume takes over. Guyana and Kenya updates are due long before merger sorted. Was that rhetorical though like you are trying to convince yourself, you seem nervous.

24 Feb 2022 - "Plans for the drilling of the previously announced side-track at well WR-B1 are well advanced, with long-lead items having been ordered. The well is being funded from existing cash from current production."

I don't know who their supplier is or who manufactures their equipment but they are the slowest I've ever known (I used to work in bespoke engineering with metals so this isn't just some off the cuff dig - Nuclear or Space program cleared items would be delivered quicker), 4 months it will be from next week. Something is fishy here, the BOD must think shareholders are idiots. I've got holdings in O&G that are based in the middle of the ocean that can source quicker than this.

No because if you read the article it's not finders keepers. They have to negotiate with Ghana because it's not oil they found (which they are entitled to if found on TLW acreage).

Speaking of suppression, Goldman Sachs have resurfaced in an RNS. We had an awful time when they were lending out shares at a rate of knots. Ah the good old 9% shorted days... why the hell is Odey still here?

Hawkspear I wouldn't get carried away with profits yet, as any cashflow generated is going towards contractors, drilling and laying infrastructure which isn't cheap. Revenue for 2021 came in at $6.1M and I would conservatively guess they won't be far off beating that as early as the end of Q2.

The second attempt at WRB-01 hopefully adds 250+ boepd. But the silence about a spud date is annoying as hell, after all long lead items were supposedly en route in April. I could've walked to Georgia and back several times in that time.

The thing is if Kenya is agreed it's a no-brainer for CNE and their board have pulled a blinder. I do wonder though that they thought or think they could get it over without, if RD thought just the logic of the merger being mutually beneficial getting them over the line then it's going to be squeaky getting over that 75%.

CNE shareholders are hoping for a takeover bid, but who out of the major's is going to make a bid, maybe CNOC but that's about it, or a fund but oil and Gas is about as popular as Piers Morgan at the minute. Majors are all looking at trimming down portfolio's and expanding to alternatives like geothermal, hydrogen, biogas, solar, wind etc. due to environmental pressure groups that are now shareholders. I can't see a bid from leftfield being forthcoming, CNE are a cash pile currently but without much in terms of assets to develop to improve on that.

For the record both companies will do fine if the merger doesn't happen. TLW will steadily grow. Capricorn will reach a peak in the next couple of years then slowly decline, until it's able to purchase or acquire more reserves. It would be a missed opportunity though as realistically could be part of a 150K bopd producer with some serious clout.

To be honest all it takes is someone to complain about inaccurate reporting of financial instruments to the FCA under the takeover code and they will do nothing at all about it. Have faith in our corrupt system.

Short and made £340 when it's gone up 2p??? That's some magic shorting there bud.

You can't compare the creation of HBR the only similarity is that it's in the Oil and Gas space. PMO had no cards in that deal.

If this were a game of top Trumps both CNE and TLW could beat each other on different attributes. CNE have money to invest and TLW have the resource that could do with that investment now, rather than wait years of juggling FCF and debt. Basically what TLW is saying is for 50% of your current production we want your mulah and in return we give you 47% of what ever we end up producing in perpetuity. Modestly they are saying that will be 80,000 (TLW assets only) by 2024-25. Kenya potentially adds 30,000 to that if successful and farmed down by 50%. There's unknown upside to Ten we will have a better idea on this when these strategic wells are drilled. It's only when you get to the 100,000+ bopd from TLW assets that the argument is that TLW shareholders get the raw end of the deal but it's the cost savings, economies of scale and ability to rapidly get to this point having funds to do so that people tend to miss out on. TLW will be buoyed by high oil prices this year and next but with debt where it is and the hedges being a requirement of that facility then any expansion is hampered by it, that will not be the case if this deal completes. The new entity will no doubt have at least one notch likely 2 better credit rating because it's massively de-risked in gearing and will be better spread across different countries it operates in. Making refinancing much easier but clearly one of the first things to address for the new entity.

I've been totting up some numbers from both sets of accounts so I have an idea. But really we need to wait for the brokers and analyst notes which will come out prior to the sales pitch and official material proposed to both sets of Shareholders in due course. Value is 90% sentiment but from a fundamental point of view both entities beforehand were undervalued and both had different strengths and weaknesses.

I think a lot of people think it's just straight up dilution but it's not because you get producing assets, reserves and cash. I've been in mining stocks where these mergers happen more frequently and are quite common due to high Capex and they tend to always be slow burners but the market eventually catches on. The excuse for shorting here was $2.1B of debt well what's the excuse now?

Capdailbrit in the context compared against SP improvement by a few pence that is, gains will be capped somewhat in the short term due to the increase of shares in issue. I will get a few K myself but it's hardly a stellar return if your a divi hunter, it's about percentages after all.

There are plenty of things to look forward to, it's a cash boost that comes with the elephant in the room that a lot of people can't seem to get past and that is we will have 2.65 billion shares in issue. a dividend is welcome but it's chicken feed really, works out at 3.7% or 2p a share as spread fairly thin. This is more for serenading II's rather than RI's.

The new group is not just the sum of it's parts it's an entirely new prospect, I suspect it won't be long before they start doing share buy backs and I really do believe from what RD has been saying regarding ESG that when this is done and dusted we will see the group swoop for mature or near development assets from the supermajors in Africa. When Analysts start covering the value here from sometime next week I suspect 54p was a joke before, now it's just plain ridiculous. Capricorn made a pre tax profit of $873.70M we have just acquired Capricorn (obviously if approved by both shareholders) according to the FT based on yesterdays close prices for $827M, the idea we have given up 47% of all current and future production gains is just not true either because we get 35K Boepd, diversification and cash in return that de-risks and deleverages immediately and the ability to accelerate production gains far beyond what TLW can manage on it's own.

BigRisky you are 100% wrong. Also they could have announced the coming of the Messiah and you'd still attack it. You have been critical without doing any calcs at all. Look at Capricorns balance sheet and say you wouldn't be happy if the board just announced a £600M acquisition of the entire share capital. Take your skull cap off for one minute and actually digest what this means for future growth, for example Kenya do they even need to farm down now?? Before it would mean at least selling 50%. A second drilling rig in Ghana is inevitable if this deal happens. They could finance acquisitions that TLW would take years to be able to have enough free cash for. You really need to sell up, literally no point in hanging around for you at all.

Baccshull I thought the same. Everyone would be congratulating the BOD if it was a cash deal but it's because it's shares you get the obvious dilution resistance. I'm doing calculations this morning and Capricorn are undervalued significantly, just looking at some of the ratios.

Cost savings and a bigger beast means so much potential for a merged group. Capricorn have been buying back shares, a combined group could definitely do the same in 2023. DYOR.

There's clearly not a one size fits all positive spin there are pros and cons here.

Main points are debt ceases to be a problem for TLW, a dividend, the current benefits of all producing assets and the future benefit of Kenya and Guyana are diluted. However what this merger means is more firepower to accelerate organic production, no longer a need to farm out, and what I think is the potentially exciting ability to acquire assets on a whole new level (inorganic growth). Exciting times and still plenty to look forward to, the merged company will be more investable for II's now. Me I'm going to dial in to the presentation and brush up on Capricorn and it's assets.

J.Bond its well documented that major's and supermajors are planning exits in non-core regions, much like Occidental did with Ghana. With lack of investment across the board in O&G as many funds have exited the space you have much smaller pools of buyers to compete with. Besides the board will only sanction something that's value accretive.

Plenty of options beyond Russia and a bit lazy to suggest that, if you actually read some of the big boys presentations they have slides dedicated to divestment, to either deleverage or address Carbon targets.

BigRisky sounds like you want a snake oil salesman, we had that with McDade and look how that turned out.

We all want jam today but if you've been here for a year or a number of years what difference does 6 month's or another 12 really make. Even discounting Kenya, Q3 and Q4 are potentially transformative because of Guyana, Gas commercialisation and Ntomme. I think they may even surprise with an acquisition, mentioned in Q&A previously, seems odd to highlight it otherwise in an AGM notice.