RE: lies13 Jul 2022 13:29
It's frustrating for the simple reason that if you take out the increased percentage from the pre-emption of Occidentals disposal then despite 7 drills since 2021 production is only slightly better than flat. I will have to re-read the CMD plan but going into 2023 on 65K bpd is behind were I expected to be, not to mention the Capex spent for not a great deal of gain (as of right now, not arguing that it will not come good... some day).
I don't blame the BOD for this to an extent, as it's clear that significant production improvements have been made at Jubilee and in the non-op. The drag is and continues to be Ten and nobody expected the levels of decline experienced particularly last year, although more stable now. My objections lie with RD advising there were short term options to maximise returns based on current high prices, but clearly nothing has been done on this front, so I still don't see how changing the drilling program slightly when the significant declines became apparent to include a producer in Ten would have been more productive than say drilling two water injectors at Jubilee. Only leaving it to this half to start the strategic wells. It just feels like stick to the plan rather than reacting to changes both internal and external. Also looks like no second rig mentioned which I suspect is now dependent on the merger. Well I've read through the release again and if I was a Capricorn shareholder I wouldn't vote for the deal as it stands, our production needs to be improving organically each half for even TLW shareholders to believe the plan is working because as it stands we have invested a few hundred million dollars into the drill bit for no real payback... yet. GLA disappointed but still holding in hope that they can sort out Ten before 2025.