Member Info for Scrodingerscat

Fully expected the pull back today regardless of results. Which for the record were better than expected, a consignment being sold in Q2 only shifted the bottom line revenue into the next quarter. All in all production up even discounting the production from the new well.

What is required is news on next drill, though forensically looking at the update the loan has been drawn down so the interventions have clearly been fairly costly so I wouldn't expect any news until they've sold a few more barrels before going again, prudent to consolidate and build some cash but probably not what the SP needs to motor on. The market wants to see good growth and I'd hope for some well deepening attempts this half but likely we have to wait, all eyes on interview, really hope they ask some serious questions this time instead of tickle belly non-helpful PR junk. Q4 was good so don't need to have PH dwell on it, we need more info about the progression of all the projects.

bigboffer I think that was some time ago and don't think that still stands. Turnover was just over £8M last year at around 400 boepd, Georgia gets a share of the production but 1000 boepd would be anything between $16M - $20M based on 60-40 oil/gas and oil averaging $80.

I dipped my toe in via Primarybid as I was already aware of FIDE online arena. Though there's a lot of work to do, the armageddon series is interesting and appears to be growing in popularity (not one for the purists though), the official chess boards are nice, the intention to setup more clubs across the globe a solid idea, though my biggest issues are the website and platform for those who've not used it, in my opinion it look's like some programming student knocked it out over a few weekends, aesthetically it's poor and looks cheap, even though the actual chess engine within it is good so you can tell where funds have been deployed during development. Waiting for opponents is frustrating and a mobile app is an absolute must going forward. I say this as hopefully CEO reads this as even though I'm registered and love chess the current setup doesn't really encourage casuals like me back frequently enough, I play loads on chess.com and feel it's streets ahead on pretty much every front (barring the absence of FIDE ranking). Happy to stick around and wish all investors luck on this one.

Slater606 a large number of oil companies if not most have negative balance sheets (which would have been a better choice of words on your part) primarily due to high CAPEX stacked against slow conversion of reserves into barrels to sell and how reserves are recorded for accounting purposes. If TLW was say a clothing company with a negative balance sheet fair enough, but oil in the ground prospective and contingent for anyone who understands oil companies accounts is arguably not a fair reflection of actual value as opposed to say a regular company that can just point at it's book; so stock, cash and intangibles. Though I'm not arguing against accounting standards here they are what they are, but let's be honest the reason why oil companies can get as highly leveraged as they can (comparatively) is because the lender knows that the real value of that oil is worth many times over how it's captured on the book. It's similar in mining as well, though I'm sure you already knew this though.

Referring to the debt itself there shouldn't be anyone invested here that believes TLW does not need to refinance as it stands. Though the debt test is not due for a long time and a balance sheet is a snap shot in time. The base case in the accounts say that TLW needs to refinance, but most companies including even your listed supermajors are perpetually refinancing. However the covenants will need testing prior to maturity and cash generation above the base case or all of the catalysts crystalising (ie. Gas, Ten FDP, Uganda royalties and Kenya) could make that a much easier task.

Slater606 I will counter that by saying have you looked at BP's? No let's in fact look at a comparable peer so Kosmos, similar revenue, over-lapping acreage, comparable future prospects, higher debt ratio... market cap $3.5B.

Let's be clear though, TLW is not insolvent. I suggest you go back and read the definition as clearly you either don't understand the term or you knowingly misrepresented the financial position. TLW has no maturities until 2025 and was audited as a going concern in the past financial year. Debt only makes a company insolvent when you can no longer service it with cash or the disposal of assets, that's clearly not what is even remotely akin to the current state of play.

Also I would suggest you research the definition of a zombie company as you're also wrong on your understanding of what that term means as well. TLW has reduced it's net debt position from a peak of over $4B to $1.9B and has paid maturing tickets off as they have come due in previous periods. A zombie by definition only pays interest if at all, and not the principle.

Slater606 I will counter that by saying have you looked at BP's? No let's in fact look at a comparable peer so Kosmos, similar revenue, over-lapping acreage, comparable future prospects, higher debt ratio... market cap $3.5B.

Let's be clear though, TLW is not insolvent. I suggest you go back and read the definition as clearly you either don't understand the term or you knowingly misrepresented the financial position. TLW has no maturities until 2025 and was audited as a going concern in the past financial year. Debt only makes a company insolvent when you can no longer service it with cash or the disposal of assets, that's clearly not what is even remotely akin to the current state of play.

Incorrect, UK investors have various mechanisms to legitimately protect gains via subscription to an ISA allowance, in addition there's also a general capital gains allowance to be utilised in tax periods, losses can be carried forward to reduce capital gains in future periods, plus many other avenues like Trust participation or owning equity via a corporate vehicle.

Oh dear we can add UK taxation to that growing list of things you know nothing about, I can see you're eager to add pensions to that list. You are arguing with someone with chartered status and was a tax consultant with working exposure in tax tribunal's for a number of years, but yeah keep going. Deffo I'm the loser here.

Haha mate you spend all day on here, you clearly don't even have a job, you could be in Greenland for all I care. Doesnt change the fact you are what you post. A clue here yours are exceptionally dim and childish.

So unless the social now trains people on macro-economics, commidity cycles, impacts of quantative easing and central Bank monetary policy. I think I'm quite safe not relying on your financial advice... just to be clear to all those interested "7 figure gain" and still doesn't understand the term or know how a net gain is calculated.

Are you even on a platform? You seem to not understand the basics, your gain is your outright gain or loss at any given time during the instrument's trading hours, so includes the total cost including fees, stamp duty minus the dumping fee if selling. Even ISA regular fees are representative of the total value of your portfolio not on one equity.

You've already provided evidence recently you don't really understand inflation now we can add calculating a net gain to that growing list.

slater606. That's it? Really? You boil it down to impatience and greed even though you know the vast majority who contribute here have been invested for years.

Your argument is beyond stupid as BP or Shell is incomparable with TLW for so many reasons. In terms of only investing in the supermajors, last time I checked capital markets have existed since the 1600's and no entity has been ever present. Rise, falls and capitulation are part and parcel of capitalism. Are you arguing that equity shouldn't exist beyond big oil? Ridiculous, value investing is very real and some of the most successful people on the planet took risks when equity is undervalued.

The key to any success is about not putting all your eggs in one company, managing your risk, reacting to changing dynamics and balancing your portfolio with a range of investments across commodities and sectors... and most importantly time. Not pumping all your money into big oil as you suggest. You'd be better off passively tracking the market in a fund as commodities are cyclical.

I started DIY investment to top up retirement 20 years ago and I'm doing just fine here. If I sold today I'd be up 40%, so would that be impatience or greed?

slater606 none of those listed are recovery plays and are all supermajors (and one major), so irrelevant point really like comparing seals with otters... also ignoring the fact you can be invested in more than one company (I hold more in Oxy than I do here).

The SP is where it is, so you can laud that now but why you choose to spend your time doing that only you can answer.

Though the point is you either invested (not bringing spread betting into it) believing in the CMD plan or you're a short term trader/charter or god knows what but definitely not a good samaritan. If you believe the board then you will probably stick around beyond today possibly to 2027 to see whether it was a success or not, so what difference does the SP today really mean if you don't intend to sell. I'm not over the moon with the SP but the board says it will produce $100M of FCF for the year at $80 OP, it's currently at $85 and this projection by RD's admission ignores the catalysts which are very distinct possibilities (the gas is just a case of when, same for Ten FDP, Kenya is the one that is less certain). Even the negatives ie the tax dispute are over egged here, the insurance was taken out in the UK and the company is adamant that it falls under UK jurisdiction not the Ghana RA, so much so that no provisions made.

Anyways enjoy sniping for whatever reasons you hold dear. For everyone else GLA and roll on Jubilee South-East.

Definitely better than expected, really pleased as had written this well off or had it down as sub 50 boepd... though let's not get carried away it's not stellar production just good. This RNS de-risks somewhat but I doubt when Q1 results are released that we will be above previous production numbers peak will likely have been in previous Q's.

It has already been alluded to but it's crystal clear that even with the supposed better prospects these are unlikely to hit 500+ boepd, so that means BLOE needs to drill more than it managed last year to move forward. Driling to stand still is slowly eroding value for shareholders with salary for shares still ever present. Come on PH use this momentum, I would hope for 3 drills in Project 2 and 1 side track in project 1 this year. Actually looking forward to a quarter update for once without looking through fingers.

LTH but not very active posting on this particular BB. What I would say is that the recent news is exceptionally positive and at least very soon will pin down some much needed consistent revenue (19% ownership of Italy MDC plus O&M). North Fork I hope also will be delivered this year.

I can only really take stock of the current SP and say that it is where it is because the delays have been costly in terms of cash, debt reliance and massive dilution. I know there has been a lot of ramping and the future here could be very bright in a hot green sector, but the market in my opinion will only now react to projects being delivered and revenues heading north. The prospect of further dilution and or debt becoming a problem are still all to real and present risks for the SP to breakout solely on potential.

I'm sure the BOD have learnt some valuable lessons in stretching yourself too thinly across multiple projects and that working with better quality and more liquid partners is more important than having multiple lower quality prospect's in play. Although I do think the company could be pushing for higher equity ownership of a lot of these earlier projects as 12% IRR in the context of 9% inflation is not as solid as it once was. DYOR and GLA.

My current average is considerably south of the current SP and I have crystallised profits when I have reduced my holdings somewhat. Happy to keep what shares are in my ISA and will happily add when I feel the need.

I understand people are underwater and some have made good profits, it's just an indication of the kind of character you are to try and laud your gains as if that makes you superior, just looks like a Napoleon complex to me. I count myself lucky generally and anybody underwater here I can empathise with as I have been in that exact same position many times over the years on many different investments. If you believe this will recover then the signs are there that it can so who are you to suggest otherwise, other than blah blah six figures. Truth be told you come across as a total helmet.

NSVPatel I've read some of your posts and you seem like another ghost at the feast to add to the BB's collection. Inflation is already hitting hard so a pointless comment really, it's a myriad of factors but primarily QE catching up added to under investment in O&G globally. If you think it's going to be running at 9% in 5 years time, go put a bet on that with your six figures instead of pretending that anyone here cares about your not so subtle suggestions.

Why people with no skin in the game here post as often they do is beyond me, good samaritan you ain't buddy. Is your full time job posting on here? Hardly going to win philanthropist of the year bothering TLW shareholders now are you.

To everybody else GLA see what the rest of H1 brings.

Now that the dust has settled. $49M in the context of $1.78B in revenue is disappointing to say the least, but as pointed out during the conference call this does sort of ignore the one offs ie. $70M settlement figure and cost of the increased stake in Ghana. We are ahead of target but this is a result of the high oil price experienced during 2022, production numbers have only crawled forward which has been the most disappointing thing during RD's tenure considering the capex spent in this space. I remember the CMD and RD was targeting 70Kbopd by 2023, the higher than anticipated declines in Ten were definitely not a part of the plan. But saying that we are where we are.

Why some of the FCF wasn't used to buy some of the bonds back is still something I scratch my head at, I put this down to the instability while changing CFO. Reading between the lines I believe Richard Miller will re-finance the debt or purchase bonds but not in the short term, he was quite upbeat about the options here and wouldn't be pushed by the analyst hinting at bond buy backs.

Looks like H1 will be a damp squib, with higher Capex and decommissioning costs but they seem supremely confident of good cash generation in H2 (I don't feel $100M for 2023 equates to good cash generation though) and 2024 is really the year were we start to see meaningful cash generated. So based on this really unless you think one of the key catalysts like gas or Kenya are going to land this is just a hold. I suspect the SP has further to fall but I'm not in the mind to add right now. I did find it interesting to see both the CEO and CFO talk about value accretion for shareholders but you just have to look at the charts to see this is at odds with reality. Should it be at just over 30p... clearly not, though without positive newsflow which I can't see happening short or medium term, materially the SP is not going to re-rate until H2 2024 figures (if it does at all) are out based on the knowns.

I will continue to hold as my plan was always to hold until 2025 results were out, but still currently a disappointed LTH. DYOR and GLA.

Not a good result, not the worst but considering the missing production and cost to fix this is undeniably a costly delay. Problem is not that failures are part and parcel of drilling but this is a second attempt at this site and people on here
bang on about how well they understand the geology, but because of the poor drilling done generally block lives drill to drill, this needs another drill so says the RNS no arguments. Funds block does not have as a result of falling production and with 3 attempts here higher or more sustained production to payback the millions spent is now a must.

What is concerning is the geoscience team pointed this to be one of the greater chances of success and any suggestion on here that they understand the geography better as a result of drilling is for the birds. Anything other than success is unfortunately punished by the market, all it's being shown right now is cost with no clear route to payback. Clear as day they needed that $1M raise or it was game over. Disappointing but they've sat on this and have known this for a while. I stand by what is needed here; new leadership and a new technical team as their combined failures exceed $20M, not even including the cost of more than doubling the shares in issue. AGM could be interesting.

Chesh you can't answer the question. You don't know where they are drilling next other than it's in Georgia and sure as hell you don't know when. So my comments stand, although speaking of your expertise beyond posting pointless links and cuts of text I have a shower that needs replacing, how much do you charge for a call out?

The copy and paste king strikes again. Backhanded jabs from someone who unblocks toilets for a living I find mildly amusing. Finish this sentence then the next drill location is... and will start on...

The ci