Member Info for Scrodingerscat

Probably a little bit knee jerk, but I don't blame you, in fact I think you have plenty of time to get back in at this level. Personally I'm staying till the end of the CMD plan period. I suspect that shareholders will get a piece of that $800M FCF but not in the near term.

Listening to the presentation yesterday was a bit like deja-vu, if you compare with the last update, then this H1 period has not changed the mood music "jam tomorrow" RD said will soon be over, well it's still Jam tomorrow territory 6 months later... clearly. As a LTH people can criticise what I say but it comes from frustration. $800M of capital investment in RD's tenure has currently resulted in +6K BOPD from the floor of production. So it annoys me when both him and Richard repeatedly talk about production growth, it hasn't even materialised into an audited release yet either. Currently his tenure has only seen overall production declines. I've seen the argument before but I can point to plenty of midsized oilers with comparative capital spends with actual production growth to show for it. Strictly oil production here can't add gas in because it wasn't commercial before but was being produced.

- 2019 production 86,800 boepd (DT)

- 2020 production 74,900 bopd (RD)

- 2021 production 59.2K boepd (RD)

- 2022 production 61.1K boepd (RD)

- 2023 forecasted 60K boepd (RD)

I put Dorothy in there for context but the narrative of production growth just doesn't wash for me. I have been here this whole period and stretching years further back. Yes there are mitigating reasons and I do hope we are at an "inflection" point but TLW has benefitted almost entirely from the oil price environment, a small bit from reducing costs. For me they can talk of production growth when he beats his own high of 74,900 bopd not when we are currently 26,800 down from Dorothy who was vilified by some on here, it's all spin right now.

I can't criticise the board on the catalysts as they are out of their hands. We may get a bump from some Ghana news on the FDP and gas agreement, doubt the trading update around November time will have much of an impact. Though any significant change will not surface from Kenya this year so we wait for FY 2023, which we will not see in black and white until March 2024.

Rant over, frustrating share to hold, will come good one day just not in 2023 GLA.

Wouldn't say it's a dead duck but effectively we know now that we are not going to have an update until at the earliest March 2024, and why hire consultants if they are not considering amending the plan. Kenya are seemingly not motivated to get this over the line, as the EPRA will have had the FDP for over a year by the end of Q1 2024.

Kenya would or should have started their consultation process in March of this year if they were more motivated to get this done and dusted. Doesn't matter when parliament returns as there is currently nothing for them to ratify according to note 11. Knock on affect of unlikely to announce or even secure a strategic partner until or even if it's approved. Again disappointing and as we saw with our dealings with Uganda, the government's obfuscation cost the company $300M. No Kenya bounce anytime soon and adds an extra reason beyond "strategic" divestment by Africa Oil and Total.

It's not trivial when under the context of $400M of capital expense. Yes 2024 figures should be higher but disappointing again that nearly 6 months of Jubilee production will not make up the declines clearly highlighted in H1 figures.

Anytime road warrior, don't bother with your dentures as they will just get lost when knocked out of your face. Funny guy, what are you 60 with a mental age of 10?

Debt and loss is as expected. However the clear concern is the production guidance (even at upper end is lower than 2022) put simply $400M spent and backwards figures for 2023. Which again highlights the consistent excelerated declines outside of Jubilee. Same old problem and will not improve until Ten is resolved. Disappointing.

One hour ago then and no official release or reply from IR. A question for the next AGM, why this wasn't communicated at 9AM is beyond comprehension, a case of comms being asleep at the wheel. Oh well somethings never change.

Anton you are just posting nonsense again, there are 1001 excuses all of which is pure speculation on your part. I will explain in simple terms, I have read several RNS's from impacted operators in Gabon this morning a mixed bag of pause in operations to operations to continue and the market will be updated if this changes. I'm not ignoring future implications as only a dense individual would believe that there are likely to be none, but nobody is asking for TLW to detail the future, just you have done that. Ask yourself this simple question why have a number of business entities with interests in Gabon declared their current position and advised they will update the market when things are clearer. Example AIM listed WBI

"The Company notes this morning's share price movement and the recent reports of government instability in Gabon.

As fully scheduled, production at the facilities in Mouila is currently suspended to allow the workforce to travel to vote in the national elections. The Company will be monitoring the situation and will update the market should there be any significant delay in the scheduled recommencement of production or any other material impact on the Company's operations in Gabon."

Use some critical thinking man. Does silence from TLW fuel speculation or not? If it's material information to the SP then the current state (not future implications) needs communicating to shareholders. Silence treats us with contempt.

Anton nonsense... this happened 8 hours ago and yes the Internet has been down for 3 days but that was soon to be former president Bongo's doing in an attempt to suppress social media. Are you telling me that Tullow doesn't know if it's operators are producing or not? Bear in mind I'm just an average bloke and even I have a satellite phone where I could make calls from Antarctica if I needed to.

TLW needs to release an RNS. What are they playing at? Either production has paused or hasn't. Either way it's material to the market due to the drop exceeding 10% now.

They really should release an RNS if there is any material impact ie. pause on production. Other listed entities mining and logging from what I've seen with just a quick scan have informed the market.

Each to their own. Selling up entirely seems a bit short sighted, which if the CMD is to be taken at face value then they will start paying dividends again possibly as early as 2025 (2024 YE).

I don't even think £1 is fair value if the catalysts crystallise this year or early next. I don't understand the obsession with a £1 valuation of 1 share on this board. Current fundamentals don't justify that valuation (hence why we are nowhere near) but even skipping forward a year say and hypothetically FDP's agreed for both Ten and Kenya (plus farm in funds), increased gas offtake capacity and an agreement with Ghana on gas the only people who will be concerned about the debt will be shorters reminding us how unmanageable it is or about the tax dispute. The Jubilee contribution to production effectively means TLW is now generating $200M - £300M in positive cash flow per half. My bet is they will pay off the 2025 notes and extend the 2026's. Maybe even increase the revolving facility to allow for an acquisition or some flexibility for capex in Kenya. Selling everything at £1 for me is like going on holiday to the Himalayas but going home after you've taken some pictures in Nepal.

Kenyan assembly goes into recess this week until 18th September so outside chance of this week on FDP approval but I would suspect September/October is more likely. Also not guaranteed they could seek amendments.

Where did I say I expected any rise? The current SP has been at this level without any news plenty of times in recent trading days, so today's news unless it pegs higher appears not to have had a positive impact, as it's still in the same trading range. I'm suggesting only that news on actual revenue a couple of years ago could have had a more positive impact as sentiment was more positive back then, or are you saying that it wasn't? $120M vs $19M market cap and more liquidity (trades) is all I need to point to on that point of divergence of opinion. Who exactly are you quoting when stating "bagging"?

The current economic climate? We are not in a recession (yet) and parts of my portfolio are performing very well particularly mining and energy. Jeez if you are gloomy on macros when GDP is up 0.7 on latest figures, then I would hate to be your councillor during an actual economic downturn.

Also was 4.35% when I commented originally.

Today's news is good. However as someone who has partaken in previous fundraises and is subsequently underwater here it seems the market no longer treats positive news on this share the same way it would have done 2 years ago. Reasons for that being all the cash forecasts being well wide of the mark and that famous promise of profitability that didn't materialise.

I think they could announce the second coming and it would hardly move the dial. Unfortunately with the raises to date me and clearly the wider market wont react until the financials markedly improve on a half or end of year report. So it's just a waiting game for these announcements to eventually appear on a report stacked against the cost of continuing trading, write-offs, managing debt and the over inflated pay of the current board.

Also for context if Ordinuik averages 100K bopd for 10 years at $75 oil that's $287M and at 150K bopd $431M. Not sure if the royalty covers gas, as the RNS is scant on detail but it probably will do so add that in as well.

Based on the above if it gets anywhere near commercialisation companies who trade these instruments would make enquiries.

Agreed the royalty is the key value driver of the transaction, the milestone payments are negligible compared to say production of 100K (1.75% of 60K) bopd on the royalty. I'm invested in a few mining royalty companies and they are good growth and dividend payers. Royalties are highly sought after as have high IRR's as there are no costs attached so are often traded between companies that write new and trade existing commodity royalties. It's big business in North America and very niche in the UK.

If you add the Ugandan royalty and let's say there is commercial production on these licenses in Guyana then this is revenue free of any CAPEX in perpetuity, you get paid on the revenue not what's left after cost, as long as the fields produce.

the nyse just has far greater liquidity which attracts international investment, it's for a few reasons. firstly americans generally are more engaged with stocks compared to the uk where most people only own stocks via pensions, funds, trusts or through employee schemes. the london stock exchange isn't what it used to be and certain policy's and referendums in particular have made it very unattractive for ipo's these days. if i was going public i wouldn't bother with a uk listing either. i think a lot of uk capital has gone private or been diverted from traditional stocks in recent times into crypto, which i did make some money on 6 years ago but is clearly a ponzi scheme, which will eventually come crashing down (this is just my opinion as even though it's been around for year's there's been no real adoption beyond the aim of buying and selling at a higher price).

anyways yes tlw is undervalued. just look at the reaction to the interim gas deal, sp has gone down. when ghana sort out the tema facility at maximum capacity it is reported it will handle an additional 500mmscfd. hard to guess what deal will be sorted at the end of the quarter but the issue at the minute isn't how much gas can tlw produce it's how much ghana can offtake. it's sad the market can't see the net book value it adds. we can all do back of a *** packet calcs so market possibly waiting for certainty of the final price to be agreed but basically $60m i'd guess based on current offtake and $120m - $180m+ is just a low estimate if tlw get capacity from ghana to offtake 200 - 300mmscfd (50% of ghana's capacity if tema comes online) this is added to the bottom line for years.

I would also add that if a long term agreement around $4 mmbtu will more than likely see the withdrawal of the tax claim. Something the de-rampers wouldn't countennance in black and white terms, many individual's criticise African nations on their leaning towards "what's in it for me" but this is leverage to use.

Seakingalpha agree with the figure the deal currently would be worth $40M considering other partners in Ghana get a much higher mmbtu figure (approx $7 mmbtu). Think when settled at the end of quarter the figure will be higher and will represent $60M - $70M pa. Also as you have inferred already Ghana is in investing in doubling it's handling capacity. Which means likely by 2025 this figure will be $120M - $140M. The added positives are likelihood of Ten FDP more than likely will be approved and better reservoir management due to the better throughput. I do also agree with the post that this hasn't been properly accounted for by the market, which seems more distracred by the macros right now.

I can't believe you've been banging on about gas for so long and know nothing about it. Invested in oil and gas and don't know the basics, rule of 6 as I always remember it 1mmbtu roughly equates to 1mcf. So 1 boe equals $17.40.

Who knows but the national assembly goes for a recess from the 25th August to 19th September.