Member Info for Scrodingerscat

Haha Anton very petty, and for the record I've held since 2018, so suggesting I'm a bad actor simply because I'm disappointed with what KOS released is entirely unfair. At least I'm not posting misleading tripe because I'm too thick to understand what facts are and unwittingly misrepresent them. You have exuded so many false dawns/positives over the years and are more often wrong than right (anybody can check your posting history on this) so posters need to be consciously wary of you. More so than me, who (whether anyone believes it or not) often only comes on here to complain simply out of the frustration of TLW constantly missing the goal posts.

So here goes is 95,900 bopd at Jubilee across Q3 above or below 100K? Even the zinger you think from the release of "up to around 100,000 bopd" is not over 100K bopd. On planet Anton maybe but not planet Earth.

Seakingalpha I can't disagree as that's your opinion and entirely plausible, what is clear though this quarterly update will not show that. It is also entirely possible depending when that production figure is maintained that Q4 will not either.

The Kos update suggests they are going to struggle to average 58K bopd for the year, Rahul did say Jubilee would be poducing 100K plus and it's currently not. TEN hard to gauge with a shutdown but will probably decline in Q4 when compared against Q2. Suspect another jam tomorrow update, SP down and posters to complain about not achieving short term production targets while those of a positive disposition state how fantastic it is.

Very touchy. The difference between carried interest vs working interest is massively significant. The fact that you've added the 2 percentages together highlights you don't get it. I posted because you are unwittingly misleading people who read the BB. 2 + 2 doesn't equal fish. But you've built an entire thread without facts because as I already said without the production agreement to refer to your carried figure is meaningless. Take it on the chin or don't, I couldn't care less. Your posts on this matter already highlight the lack of understanding of the subject you are reporting on.

I had a go at you, where? You are very sensitive. Then your evidence is a flakey article that says 22.5% carried interest not working interest. Again suggesting you don't quite know what that means or the difference, for example that carried interest in the production agreement could be most likely only after costs recovered, a multiple of costs, only above a set oil price or production volume or after x amount has been recovered as revenue. So without the production agreement to refer to, 22.5% means nothing. Carried or royalty interest is what we have with Uganda for example, what percentage of Uganda do we own... answer 0% because we have no working interest. 42.5% is for starters a very high stake for a government to have in any project and would most certainly put off any large potential farm in partners. I will wait for the publication of the FDP, production agreement and FID (if it happens).

Anton acquiring another 20%? When did they acquire the first 20%? Other than stuff you found on Twitter sometime ago, and it was you that created the narrative that TLW had given 20% away not the pictures. So there is nothing out there that suggests TLW has gifted Kenya 20% to bring it to 40%. In the absence of evidence I posit this is your initial 20% figure which has now been leaked by someone working within the government of Kenya. You can pat yourself on the back for finding this out long before the Kenyan newspapers.

We would get shafted, Kosmos is valued much higher than TLW even though everything currently is similar. Kosmos arguably has more prospects in the medium to longer term though a much bigger debt pile. I don't think we are going to merge with anyone who doesn't have a cash pile in this market. Merging with Kos would just be taking on more debt and Tullow would be the junior party purely on unfair listing dynamics.

Well in 2 weeks we will be over half way through Q4. Where's the news, anything? The financing deal without news is just any way you look at pretty stupid now, they could have just gone to the market and done a discount raise, one big hit and then there would be grind yes but some shares would have ended up in stickier hands, compared with our current partners who sell as much as they can get away with from session to session. Tim is a prime case study of the Dunning-Kruger effect, nobody else understands how he got where he is and all the evidence points to him being entirely inadequate.

I think I understand about the repetitive nature of salaries mentioned in every post, there's the debt too but currently what bigger costs does eqtec really have? The writedowns are for unpaid invoices and no funding to continue furthering the announced UK projects. Apart from day to day expenses and costs the biggest known variable eating away at a tiny cash pile is director and employee salaries. So why would you object to the mentioning of something that currently makes the business look non-viable?

Anyways didn't post here for that. Has anyone looked at the website recently? I happened to look at the Italy MDC and it's recorded as a complete case study (as in a completed project), when it's clearly not over the line. Considering this kind of material is used by people to make investment decisions isn't that entirely misleading? God just looked at my value here down 94%, for context the current BOD have extracted more out than the current MCAP. Who is it that carries the can for their collective failure again?

J.Bond always find your opinions on the bonds interesting.

Though I can't see the 2025's as any real leverage as TLW will have the capital to pay these off at maturity, it's the €1.8B 2026 that drives everything here. The bond markets are in a right state of flux at the minute. Inflation does erode debts and bonds feel that pain due to their fixed rate nature. I guess the question I have is the discount on the 2025's is greater and is that because the ticket is relatively close to the BOE base rate now while the 2026 10.25% has clear breathing space even though it looks like this one looks unlikely to be paid on maturity?

Nothing to do with that. It's well documented that Ghana can't utilise current production volumes. They will drag their heels until the updated processing and new LNG export facilities are online in 2025. So I don't expect Ghana to agree to anything material for sometime, they don't want to pay for gas they can't use or sell. I'd be very surprised if it wasn't another interim agreement. Makes sense for them and it's not like Tullow can do much other than increase flaring.

The narrowing of the production estimates was the catalyst for the continuing malaise, a stomach punch moment for when most thought they'd finally turned the corner. This will come good I have faith but it's frustrating because the delays over the years in Ghana and Kenya have been costly to the SP.

The Ghanaian government stalling over a long term gas agreement and approving the FDP to attempt to finally fix Ten is no surprise because they can't currently handle what TLW produces until 2025 hence routine flaring and probably too high gas re-injection which impacts on oil production as it's a fine balance. The Kenyan government decision to stall was just ridiculous, they should have got consultants in earlier if they were not sure about it back in March before they submitted the revised FDP off on it's journey to approval. A waste of 6 months and will look bad to outside investment as they try to secure bids for future licences. These are outside the boards control but ultimately they decided to pump the cash into these areas, knowing the issues and history of how long it takes these African governments to take action, they had options to spread some of this across the non-op or even look at an acquisition. Sentiment will only change now when either they get traction on these 2 key catalysts or the market is shown via results the jam is here now. We are still in the jam tomorrow phase so shorts will make the most of this.

So it's simple if you believe there's value hold, or trade trying to time it right... or sell. The thing you learn about holding here is there are always delays and they always prove detrimental to the SP. GLA.

The interims are a snapshot from June so you can easily extrapolate that by now that cash is gone or just about gone. Italy MDC may have generated some revenue but all signs suggest it is not operating profitably hence why the bank has not agreed to refinance until performance improved. What other income do they have for this quarter? Everything else has been pushed back. They have loans to payback close to €5M in 18 months so how the hell are they going to pay these back?

What needs to be made clear these are not audited and if they make it to reporting FY2023 no auditor in the land would sign these off as a going concern. If Italy isn't sorted within weeks it just looks to be simply over. A raise is unlikely as nobody would be interested, a lender for a short term loan would want security to leverage but their assets are mostly intangibles. The frustrating thing here is they would have known this as soon as Italy wasn't performing. So if they'd have issued a raise then this wouldn't be in such dire straits yes people would be complaining but the SP would actually be above where it is and more importantly we wouldn't be talking about administration.

It's a combination of continued poor project management, seemingly no due diligence of prospective partners, bad decision making and the half truths and lies that cost them, even now they can't face up to reality. They will be alright, and I will but some here will have lost money they probably can't afford to lose. I wonder how investors would react if they ran into the BOD in the real world. I'm thinking ala Noel Edmunds turning up to a Lloyd's Banking Group AGM.

It's ridiculous that even in this day and age only large shareholders can force EGM's. If now wasn't the time for one, when is? We will probably hear from the insolvency practitioners before we hear from DP again. Happy to be wrong. But agree with what's been highlighted, just a group of con artists, the interims compared against the recorded AGM and multiple past interviews demonstrate this comment is not even controversial or libellous.

PHE are sat on £4.9M in cash and look a going concern, with an ability to raise more capital beyond EQT who conversely have only €1M and the interims suggest without external funding it's over. So completely obvious why the 2 SP's differ entirely on sentiment. The revenue figure is just the icing on the cake of this recently unravelling nightmare.

Exactly this, it's worthless stock. I'm kicking myself for participating in previous raises.

Anyone with sense knew this is no longer a going concern last week when they issued those doom laden releases. The interims just highlights the complete ineptitude from top to bottom. The IP is what they state is valuable, well 1 case study in 15 years. They can assign whatever value they think it has but has only generated €145K this half. CEO and COO basic both €265K and CFO €204K. Tom Quigley had the nerve to answer a question on this saying it was actually a lower package than they could get elsewhere, a non-exec who got paid €42K in fees for doing what exactly?

If the company exists in Q2 2024 I'd be surprised. This is call in the administrators territority right now. More funds needed to continue paying vastly inflated remuneration packages. If you were a lender would you lend them more millions to pay salaries the company can clearly, well not in this universe afford, based on currently a one project success, and several complete project failures?

The amount of contortion required to be balanced though.

€145K revenue for a listed business that's 15 years old is pathetic. Basically blaming PI's for the SP, you couldn't make it up. They have one case study, 2 if they ever sort Italy out, the bank not agreeing to refinance until performance is addressed is a clear indicator that it's not a given.

What assets do they actually have? Tech with one proven case study stacked against multiple project failures... €40M - €50M asset valuation according to the company, meanwhile on planet earth when you post revenue of €145K.

Honestly even if they went on Dragon's Den they'd be laughing at the current valuation. It does look like they are now thinking about going private but the funny thing is they have nowhere near the amount of shares to pull it off.

The interims just highlight how deluded they all are. Also for some context my revenues exceeded theirs over the same period, didn't have remuneration to anywhere even close to the level and I'm in a 3 man limited company. But there again we pay ourselves in line with profits or cash not how much we managed to beg from lenders and investors.

No chance. Employees, secured creditors, normal creditors, HMRC etc. everybody is ahead of us as shareholders. There isn't enough to pay wages let alone anyone else. Lender may pull loan facility now, seen it happen recently with others and many times before when listed companies post crisis level news.

This is game over territority sad to say. Unless they announce some paying miracle soon. I see some are saying Northfork might save the day or actually refinancing Italy but just looking at the past I wouldn't bet on it. You'd have to be insane to buy shares in Eqtec right now. Sad to say and I hope I'm wrong but it looks like we are stuffed. In fact I'd rather take the full loss rather than any saving grace of diluted to oblivion. The BOD need to be shown for their abject failure so they can never be able to phoenix this and fleece investors in another vehicle ever again. This mud needs to stick so Palumbo is never in a position to tap markets or lenders for Capital to this level again. I wouldn't even approve him for a credit card right now.

Who the hell would employ them?

Do they even have any project management professionals working for the company? The COO surely must review all of the project plans and see everything falling into the red on time and budget well in advance of this and if not he's fundamentallying not doing his job, don't get me started on ignoring risks.

The CFO has no control over costs and has been weak, he's supposed to challenge operational spends and budget fails and clearly couldn't pull even close to a reality cash flow forecasts together, I wouldn't employ him as a trainee accountant at my company let alone head of finance. If he's chartered what a waste of an education, as he's clearly in the wrong profession.

The CEO is the only one who you can argue has had some success, though not by running the organisation successfully but duping investors out of £50M. So a successful snake oil salesman but not a trustworthy chief executive.

Businesses fail and we risk our own capital but the leadership have been lying and covering up poor performance over the many raises. What's worse is they actually believe their own guff. Deluded arrogance and it's cost everyone invested. Raise is the only option so shares will be effectively worthless to survive as they should all work for free until they actually bring in some revenue. Over €1B project pipeline... I've said already but worth repeating... completely delusional.

Exec and Non-Executive board's pay won't even be covered. What can you say other than an absolute joke and to release this at the end of the day... spineless. I have already written off my investment here this looks like its going to go bust.

I know people don't tend to follow these geopolotical things but Azerbaijan appears to have just restarted conflict with Armenia. Which without Russia to force peace then Europe is going to struggle with Gas and Oil massively this winter. I suspect Oil and Gas will peg higher now. The next energy price cap round is going to be brutal again, so much for inflation going down.

firstly they are not my production numbers and secondly i did not stamp success under dorothy.

clearly you don't understand how to extrapolate meaning (i can see that from the incoherent ****** you post). just for you as i couldn't have made it any clearer first time around, rm and rd's narrative this week is production growth. do their own audited figures suggest that? arrested decline and slow reversal would be more applicable. i have already highlighted there are mitigating factors for the state of production, but ignoring the past is not something any reasonably minded investor should. for example, documented ten declines have been the biggest problem, exacerbated by ghana's inability to handle gas offtake. routine flaring has helped but tullow is estimated to have flared $400m of excess gas to date. this will only change in 2025 when the new processing facilities and lng import/export hub are operational. is this leaderships fault? of course not but they chose to deploy the vast majority of the companies capital knowing this problem exists. did they have other options, well they had other options in the non-op and i think the exit from the orange basin in namibia was an unforced error as they say in tennis. the bod are not infallible and i will happily sing rd's praises when he turns the corner, but we haven't yet... it's still "jam tomorrow".