Member Info for Scrodingerscat

StanleyPro firstly re-read my post before lashing out. I did not put a timeframe on anything, however I'm going to spell out why ruling out an option as "no chance" is based on your limited understanding of debt against my understanding (former employee of Fitch's and chartered).

1. The CMD plan stated $700M returned to equity by 2027.

2. FCF of $400M forecasted next year.

3. TLW will likely refinance 2026 in 2024, the Glencore bonds remove the blocker of the 25's to allow this.

3. A $100M dividend payment in 2024 is insignificant compared against cash generation vs net debt. The difference between finishing the year at $1.3B net opposed to $1.2B.

You have based your entire knee jerk response on TLW having to pay down as much debt as possible. Which is not the case, even if TLW generate the $800M forecasted between now and 2025 YE they cannot pay the 2026's, but you should know that as it's in the accounts clearly highlighted. So why are you invested unless you believe they can't refinance, in which case not sure how you square that circle. How much debt do you think needs paid down before you assume they can refinance? How much debt is too much, you should try comparing like for like peers I suggest Kosmos. But let's be honest here TLW fundamentally needs to borrow much much less than it had to last time it refinanced when it was losing money and oil was much lower. If you don't like debt and how it's managed then you picked the wrong stock. The Glencore bonds and the cash generated have flipped control from bondholders just check the 2025 and 2026 values if you don't believe me, bearing in mind they were positioned as junk when issued.

Though I haven't questioned the bond buybacks as they have provided significant value to the balance sheet which has not been reflected in the SP. It would have been nice if the last buyback was of the share variety. $115M would buy back a lot of shares at this level. The 10% short would have been sweating then.

This is it now, with 2024 a low capex year and strong generation of FCF since it can't be deployed in significant amounts until FDP's are agreed in Ghana and Kenya the BOD has options for that cash.

1. Share buybacks.

2. Bond buybacks.

3. Dividends.

4. Hold in reserve.

1 and 3 have a good chance of cropping up sooner than people think. It's funny how market makers tend to only look down when trying to pick up shares, but nobody holding is going to want to sell at these levels when things are looking so rosy compared with the transition from 2019 onwards. To the MM's need to change the tune lads you actually might get more volume looking up.

power you have provided no facts. firstly you have stated the markets are forward looking, the market is about 90% sentiment (or guff, however you choose to look at it) which in all of the years of the stock markets existence nobody anywhere has ever been able to predict within any degree of accuracy... why? because the market is a ****genous mix of all the macro and micro mixed together with the political and emotion of human emotion, it actually becomes more complicated every year that passes. though by definition mostly reactionary, not forward looking as you say.

in this half alone tlw is saying it will have generated $250m in fcf, now that's a fact and yet the market cap is $500m. next year they are conservatively saying they will generate $400m due to lower capex, one of my pet peeves is idiots who say the sp is the one truth. the market knows the sum of **** all and if sp's were always an accurate reflection of value then investing is fundamentally pointless. even warren buffet's core principle of value investing would be pointless. there are always overvalued and undervalued stocks and if you can't look at the fundamentals of this stock and see which category it falls into you should really give up on investing. they will cake walk refinancing 2026 and anyone who questions that just needs to be shown $250m fcf generation in 6 months. i have some experience in underwriting and tlw are 100% not the same risk they were 2 years ago. the glencore bonds are categoric proof of that.

production has been disappointing yes granted but the higher oil price and bond buybacks have more than made up for that, production forecasts at the low end will start with a 6 not a 5... i can't remember how long it's been since that was the case. i can't comment with certainty re: kenya but ten is nailed on. ghana are just playing for time until their processing facilities and lng export terminal are up and running. i don't even think that it's as risky as the market thinks as there is clearly a pivot to the future development here focusing on gas, much easier to extract and not as open to the whims of the geology gods. rant over.

StanleyPro I won't critique entirely what you have said as fundamentally we both agree. However in terms of how much cash they need to clear the 2025's I suggest you might need to go back over the recent announcements because with the Glencore drawdown option they could clear the nominal value tomorrow, hence why the remaining bondholders are just happy to get the interest and let them mature as even if there is no FCF generation by 2025 they are covered. So I'm not really sure what you are on about really?

So since June they have retired $381.3M in debt for an outlay of $302.5M. The amount is further compounded to comfortably above $420M when you add in the interest saved. Oil is also up $4 and yet the SP is down for the week. No wonder people bemoan the stock market, just downright rigged. The MCAP is still beyond silly. They said it was debt but the company is using free cash to evaporate it. So what's the reason now? I shouldn't have to remind the market this was 60p when debt was $2.1B and oil was $75. I would like to know what the current value is pinned to, because the company is clearly buying up debt with cash it's generating as they haven't drawn the Glencore facility.

I don't think I singled out which comms. In my mind though it was more around the tickle tummy videos that get posted and the agm in particular.

To be honest the RNS's they release are mostly guff as well, pick any and you find material information omitted, half truths and sometimes a complete waste of a release. That partnership deal in Ireland with a complete non-entity for instance. The Italia MDC truth will come out in time, now what is more material to the SP a guy they partnered with in Ireland or the % performance of the MDC that a bank will not agree refinancing on until unknown % improves? Bearing in mind, it says on the website it's a complete case study and has been handed over. Also more importantly their entire industrial strategy is based on this being a success. Without it they are left with agriculture, which does have an actual completed and operational case study but are far smaller projects and therefore worth much less. So considering it was handed over in March and we have had several official releases since then, why is this critical SP value information still withheld?

To be honest I've been around long enough, you can spot the difference from a FTSE 100 constituent compared against an AIM constituent release with your eyes closed.

Regarding Nomad's they only advise based on what they are told. In fact I contacted a Nomad once a few years back on the day that a company I was invested in had appointed Administrator's. I used to track the gazette in my professional role. He hadn't been informed. Anecdotal but still anyone who believes RNS are solid truth nuggets need only look recently at the likes of Patisserie Valerie, NMC Health, Finablr, Sirius Minerals etc. etc.

On the one hand UK plc wants more people to invest in companies listed on the LSE. Then you look at why people don't just look at this shower and AIM generally.

If Eqtec had borrowed the full €50M from a financial institution say a UK registered bank this would have never even got this far, banks have levers if they choose to protect their capital. They are not always on the ball though, that's down to the institution but they can withdraw their capital. You can't, you have to sell your shares to the next mug.

Retail shareholders are treated generally as pond life, as stupid people with too much money so they can afford to lose it. While they represent all ladders of society and there are rich and poor amongst them, only stupidly believing in honest institutions. Would DP and JVL be looked on favourably if they were known to have persuaded a disabled pensioner with a tiny pension pot on a street, say lacking in proper decision making capacity ie Alzheimers, to give them money. Compared to what they've done here society says that it's ok because there was a disclaimer.

Insert you understand the risk that investments go up or down. Then it's just a given that you are holden to however shoddily the company is run. Now Fraud is a strong word so I won't use it, but have the current incumbents on record lied or misrepresented either the current or future financial position about the company?

If you run your own business like these guys have done ie completely hoodwinking your investors or lenders, you'd be on a sure fire path to insolvency or potentially banned as a director from any future limited entities. Yet they still continue to draw large 6 figure incomes. Paying themselves not from what they have earned just what they have borrowed from others with no requirement or intention to ever pay a penny back. There is no empathy whatsoever just cold faced greed. The ridiculous thing is they believe you owe them because they could just scoot off somewhere else. You get to that level then you can go on doing it. Don't get me wrong the poor house wasn't a great thing but remember they used to send debtors to jail, now society rewards sociopathic behaviour so they pull massive remuneration packages and live in luxury for basically failing in reality but portraying and trying to convince everyone that factual failure is really success. There is no self awareness or shame. Do you know what would be better than nothing... an apology. Never happen though as that is admitting errors were made.

Low volume, nice and wide spread, discourage buyers, lower the bid and pick up lower sell orders Textbook market making. Kills volume though so make money on the spread.

Jeez... OK I will dumb it down and I knew you meant a long term recovery but put the positive bluster to one side, and hypothetically the deal is approved by a shareholder majority. They want to issue €2M of shares the Mcap is approx €5M so buying before those shares are issued is suicidal. No ifs or buts, if you bought today for the long term or even if you buy before the EGM (other than to increase your number of votes) then you must be insane.

How is it going to move up when there will be billions more shares to issue, the price will drop 40% at least. Analysts... go on enlighten us who's said the SP will go up from here. Investing 101, the update is a proposed debt for equity swap so the cost of reservicing that debt is entirely borne by equity aka shareholders, as their shares will be effectively worth 40-50% less. Altair are still selling as well so the argument that they are going to be sticky holders is for the birds. You do know more shares makes everyone's shares worth less don't you? or are you just thick?

This is egregious debt for equity no bones. The price is an additional 40-50% more equity in issue. A post this morning stating plenty of positives, go on name 1 then. Unless you are Altair, on the payroll or the BOD, everyone else loses.

I'm not voting for this, like other posters have said I'm so far down I couldn't care less about retaining any value. I mean the insult with Italy is just glazed over, ignore it's not working but we are paying more than the % share of it's supposed worth for the privilege.

They can have my votes if Palumbo is sacked immediately, JVL is given 12 months, the entire board and non-exec takes a 50% pay cut and they release an independent audit of Italy and the current order book. Heads have to roll for this. CFO should receive no golden handshake whatsoever. Joke leadership.

the whole thing stinks to high heaven altair can drop this far further to get many more shares and percentage of the company. why wasn't trading suspended until after the egm? everytime the sp drops now that pound of flesh hits deeper. the bod do not give one solitary **** about us, i hope it gets voted down and these turds end up jobless.

here it is the massive dilution. will need to take some time to take it all in. though italy sign of being fleeced further, eqtec buying pitcole share worth €736k for €800k in shares. a gm will be called, nobody should vote for this deal until they understand how ****ed shareholders are here, and ask for an independent audit of italy, as it's still not fully operational.

I find it quite sad that you have to setup multiple accounts on here and ADVN talking about your past user name and what a great commentator you were. How you are not banned again amazes me, you bring nothing to the discussion, never did. Either someone is paying you to post, in which case they can't be very fussy as you're a joke and hold no sway over anyone. Or you are bitter about a previous loss here, or just some sad spreadbetter with an inferiority complex. The only things you are successful at is wasting yours and others time and getting banned (fingers crossed). You aren't even consistent you were pushing an SP collapse, the extra cash and bond announcement sunk your battleship.

PNuman totally wrong and completely misleading. For anyone who remembers the previous Capital Structure TLW was regularly tested against liquidity and debt covenants (the test results are RNS'd for those who want to research), this was from McDades era. The previous facility and previous financial miss management, actually forced the sale of Uganda in the end. So was a noose around the neck in a falling production and low oil environment at that time. The current bonds although at a higher ticket and some hedging was much less constrictive considering how TLW fell into Junk rating. The bonds can be much aligned now but they were a godsend compared to what TLW had, always at risk of failing a liquidity test and having the facility pulled. Anyone can see the Capital Structure has positively changed and continues to do so.

Are you the 6 figure guy? What's wrong with you? Very sad. Move on, go on holiday, just live your life if indeed you enjoyed 6 figures. Probably just a typo and it's actually six fingers.

I'm annoyed about the production, but it's a bigger picture update, and for once I do think the next update will actually change this silly share price game here. The biggest drag has been the debt. Forecast to be $1.6B, doesnt matter how we got there it's forecasted to be $100M less than guided. Also surely they haven't included the tender offer as in theory there may be no desire to sell from bondholders and who knows how much they will be able to buy back for $100M. Come on now Analyst and Moody's Credit upgrades have to happen considering the glencore bonds, a tender offer, lower capex and cash flow ahead of forecast, even Jeffries who are always the most negative.

I have been here for a while but when I first bought the net debt position was $4B and the SP was several multiples of what it is today. How much debt is too much for a mid-tier of around $1.7B in revenue. The SP is just plain silly now in all metrics.

At least Glencore won't open a short position like many other existing bondholders have.

Depends how the trading update is worded and if there's anything material to add around TEN or Kenya. We know they are possibly not going to hit production guidance for the year and a Jubilee cargo has been moved back into 2024. So we could be down tomorrow, but then again when production guidance is released for 2024 it's unlikely to start with a 5 at the lower end.

The SP always overreacts here to missing of targets, it's the frustration of serious positive change being seemingly always just over the horizon. Hope to be wrong though.

Tambo210 where does it say a discount? RNS = "oil marketing and offtake contracts". So you've made up a discount haven't you.

Also why not a bank? Well the last bonds are not bank funds either, do you have a problem with UK PLC selling to non-banks? This really is a silly point, banks are not the only source of finance. Glencore have a track record in lending to a wide variety of commodity producers, last time I checked oil and gas was one of the world's most crucial commodities.

Also 10% I'm sorry but considering our current credit rating and current base rates, 10% is as good as we can get and I think that's a reasonable ticket. I suspect a Moody's upgrade has to happen now.

This is great news and that's coming from someone who was disappointed with the production news and water injection issues via KOS.

Anton I don't know what point you think you are making but posting production numbers from May what has that got to do with Q3 production?

Also trends, you haven't explained your trend just that it's up (id love to hear you explain the trend to the chartists out there) and technically trends are not facts, a trend in your case is an attempt to suggest where the future is... not a fact, a fact is a past or historical event. My argument is based entirely on 95,900 bopd over the quarter so we can all work out with some certainty what September's figure will be when next updated.

In fact I would go so far as to say I really don't see why you've posted any of that, past production literally has no bearing whatsoever on the initial argument. Like it was some arc of the covenant. Who exactly disputed past production figures? What are you arguing against... so fill this one in for me production from May to August has improved so therefore???

Also I would say copying and pasting sourced information is not presenting facts or evidence. That comes at the end of forming a coherent argument.

Fantastic turn around? Really, when is your starting point from because if you look at production over a longer period and you include TEN it doesn't look so fantastic, particularly when you add the total CAPEX.

Also Jubilee has never been the problem, Jubilee in isolation is fine but in the wider context of group production has to make up for TEN declines. Jubilee itself is now at risk of not averaging over 100K for H2 which is counter to what RD was saying on the record. Further to that TEN has been on shutdown. Do the maths your a smart guy, assuming non-op is maintained, 58K bopd (bottom of guidance range) for the year looks touch and go with TEN production added in.

As it looks very possible now, missing production target for the year do you think the SP will respond positively to that? TLW may even change the guidance in this trading update to manage market expectations, we shall see.

Nobody is wallowing here just the SP. Let's be honest you panicked during the Gabon coup didn't you, so questioning my brass I find highly amusing.