Member Info for Scrodingerscat

Day traders don't hang around as naturally always chasing a spike or bounce. I'm hanging around so I can choose when best to crystallise my losses I also will be voting at the AGM to give the board a kicking, I suspect I won't be the only one. DP might think this spike gives him reprieve but funnily enough day traders don't hang around to vote either. Like vultures to a sweet smell of decaying carcass.

Spike chasers talking about profit haha. Funny how LTH's are diluted to oblivion then the recovery happens. 80% rise and I'm still 95% down. Will these traders still be around in 5 minutes. Doubtful they don't even know Pitcole and Altair have millions of shares to sell. I'd advise you to get out before the 2023 YE's are posted, will they beat €144K total revenue for the 6 months to June? You guys don't care, in and out is the game for you lot so what you know of this company could fill an Olympic sized swimming pool. Shafted.

LeedsWedge what term, doesn't even look like you know yourself. Have you looked at the trade book recently probably should before giving some guff about sentiment. The MM's and algos have driven this, definitely not sellers.

Oil price averaged $83 over 2023. Is that long enough term for you? Or $77 currently for 2024 with it being comfortably above that for half of the period currently in question. So your backtracking aside a stable OP but SP deservingly down 16%. Maybe there's a point in time you can point back to where you backed up your mathematical prowess that didn't equal sentiment... wibble.

JMAX why would I sell at 39p when my strategy is to hold until FYE results and Dividend 2027? Also you are always replying within minutes so must be logged on all day everyday so if anything I just reflect how sad that existence must be. So in the same way I would have pity for a dog that's been run over I would not ask it for investment advice.

Calls LTH's losers because they are not making millions mirroring fantasy trades. Clearly irony is not lost on you my friend.

Total rubbish. Oil price same as when the SP was 39p. SP down 7p. More buys than sells over the last fortnight. It's macro concerns compounded by agressive manipulation down. If you are a seller at this level then the only person being mugged is you the seller.

The SP is total nonsense. Glencore have agreed to handover $400M in bonds not because they are thick, but because they know that armed with these funds as a bridging loan, successful refinancing for TLW is inevitable. This was 60p when net debt was $2.3B and we are led to believe a company that has retired $600M of debt in 2 1/2 years is a basket case and worth half that. No value attributed to Jubilee production growth, gas sales, gas sales from 2025, Ten, Non-Op or Kenya. The SP has not improved based on the major steps made in 2023, we all know why that is because when news filters through the lower the base then any rise is significantly negated.

Jeffries are also on record as saying that Jubilee wouldn't ever get over 100K bopd and have effectively written off Ten, so of course they are going to be hawkish they've effectively said they don't rate the Ghana assets. Won't take much for them to be eating humble pie if that's how they've worked out their SP outlook.

Who are you going to look to for the longer term investment decision, directors buying or speculators like LeedsWedge? RG doesn't care about what the SP is today or tomorrow or where it was last year. He's a wealthy successful insider buying that's all we need to know. I read more into that than from the mythical trading expert twins JMAX and Power.

supercooper exactly this most traders lose, you just have to look at etf numbers and it's as high as 80% on some platforms. this isn't even a good stock to trade due to the low volumes. but as you alluded to your a seer if you have purely fantasy entry and exit point. if it goes up above 39p jmax will claim they didn't sell and if it drops they will claim to have sold at 39p. it's this new era of calling both heads and tails yet claiming you called it. it takes 30 seconds to spot that said poster has been more often wrong than right recently. but it lives in it's fantasist bull**** universe where it either believes itself or it's just doing a poor job in trying to manipulate the casual bb reader.

jmax is on record as short as of the 18th december. so they couldn't have been more wrong about the sp direction since then.

jmax 18 december 2023

sp 35p

"gone short, i called you out when you were ramping in the 60's"

due to the spread and the fact you wouldn't have been able to close lower after that date. you are either saying you've switched to long which will have been a loss... "easy money" yeah for your spreadbet provider. you are both short and long, odd thing to do. you never were short or long. or you're just full of ****... i think this is also applicable to all the available scenarios.

jmax of course you are dumping. you've been dumping the whole week.... apparently because you have such a massive holding you couldn't possibly sell it in one go. why would anyone telegraph something like that unless they wanted others to follow. you haven't predicted a correct sp movement in the last few weeks. if anything the sp has reacted positively to your so called "dumping". keep it up sunshine.

orrr as your posting style suggests your true position which changed to very negative at about 32p you have a bet on a downward trend, which was a fair bet considering continuing us record production. geopolitics ****ed on your chips. well you haven't got long to close your bet, 17th is the trading update for q4. award for worst end of year trading goes too...

Shorts not going well lads. I don't even know how much spreadbetting costs to carry over day to day these days. As there is no way you 2 clowns managed to borrow any actual shares, picked a great time to bet down. You must be down close to 20%. Remember $150M to be announced on 17th January, don't forget to post your tears on here us LTH's deserve a good new years drink.

JMAX herd mentality, been happy hunting grounds for the last few years, serious risks over refinancing in the past, hedging... you tell us. But if you seriously think that the mcap will be less than £525M if they generate $300M - $400M in FCF next year then you could be in for a shock. That's not even including anything materialising that's not priced in eg. TEN FDP and gas deal. Even $150M of FCF in 2023 warrants a higher mcap than current.

I have seen you are trying to use a post on the other board to suggest that production is material ly lower at Jubilee. A few things to consider on that front 1. We were already told some cargos would be delayed, as early as the KOS call. 2. Cargos doesn't equate to production because A. There's a thing called storage B. A significant amount of production is sent to Tema C. Doesn't include gas.

The tide will turn here it's just a matter of when, the bondholders are confident they are going to be paid, so the conservative investors are on side, so equity will similarly react in due course. Good luck with your short.

Also I think you missed one of the key points plenty of PI's will take a punt they always do, even when a company looks like it's about to hit the desk of insolvency practitioners ie Cineworld, Amigo Loans etc. etc.

That's not what institutional investors look to do, Altair are vulture capitalists and are certainly to blame for the current SP woes, their constant selling at any price actually made things harder for DP but he made his bed with them so could never criticise, so I don't count them (Their current % and loan combo should be a warning to anyone thinking about buying). II's were notably absent before and there is no way on this planet one would take a position now, unless the aim was a takeover but why would anyone want to do that now, the tech is the only thing of any value and it has big question marks over it's commercial viability.

Theonethatknows I hold no hope of ever recovering my losses here, I'm only holding now to crystallise losses when I need to reduce capital gains. This is just not investable right now.

Recovery plays can be good money spinners but anyone with any sense can see the red flags here. Currently even including the recent announcements all I can see is a business that currently struggles to pay salaries and lenders, and is quite happy to continually raise funds and lie to shareholders. The whole sordid affair could've been avoided, look at how far off they've always been on cash flow forecasting, it's clear to me that the basics of good project management are just not present here. If new investors are happy being lied to, a dodgy link to Altair, bad decision making, questionable technology, constant delays and a business that can't convert a pipeline into an order book that's down to them. The signs are clearly there now for all to see, DP and JVL were unknowns before they don't have that disguise anymore.

croqman are you insane? everyone has a right to be ****ed as everybody has lost massively. my share account is showing £195.65 this morning from a £10k investment, i have lost 99% of my shares due to the continual dilution. they are still issuing shares as well at a discount because they have no cash. you think this is the bottom you wait until they release the year ends with 2 chunky write downs to look forward to and pitiful revenue. this won't improve unless they perform a miracle, the whole leadership is tarnished as what right minded institution is going to invest here.

dp and jvl need to go that's an absolute necessity for recovery. they have failed and if they don't understand that they are either deluded or and i will say this carefully thieves. they have stolen a living off anyone who invested cash in this business. i hope we can go to the agm as i would love to meet them. think i would struggle not to knock that smirk clean off his face though.

Bline59 agree somewhat. What I would say most firms directors pay is related to the success of a business. I have sat as an officer on more than a few limited companies and when you want to move on how the company performed and how much you were remunerated should be looked at by any board performing any small level of due diligence on your track record. Think about it the CEO can apply for another directorship and any other board can see that the CEO was paid more than they generated in revenue in H1 and has trashed the SP by 95%, so which right minded board would even consider said application let alone appoint that kind of skip fire. Don't get me wrong there have been plenty of individuals who turn failure into success but there's nothing any FTSE listed or AIM listed company would be interested in here. Questionable links to Altair, SP capitulation, €50M gone and nothing delivered in 4 years. I wouldn't employ DP or JVL to clean toilets, they do not deserve there frankly gross pay packets. My revenue was higher than theirs in H1 and I know electricians who generated more. We didn't need €50M of cash spaffed up the wall to generate such a pitiful amount relative to money supposedly "invested".

i don't know how any of them sleep at night. any self respecting professional, would've been applying for literally any other job. i mean this time period i would've been worried if i was going to get paid at all. mostly project managers and project engineers or consultants with zero projects delivered. imagine that on your cv. worked on an engineering project for 2 - 3 years, didn't complete it, company went bust. put it this way unless they have great cv's prior to here i doubt the likes of bab****, kier group, siemens etc. would be scrabbling over each other to hire the junk here.

Stickaforkinit the SPR is doing that already and are only permitted to purchase 3 million barrels per month. Saudi's spare capacity is estimated to be 2 million barrels per day.

Additionally Trump is leading the polls and is saying drill, drill, drill. The Saudi's are not stupid and helping Biden makes more sense because he's not interested in increasing oil production as actually believes climate change is real, his concern are pump prices. So flooding the market in the middle of next year to make gas at the pump cheaper for your average American plus giving the US economy a shot in the arm in the run up to the election will help his election chances.

2024 will be interesting but I can categorically say there will be no blockade of the straight of Hormuz well not against Saudi shipping, as they have US military personnel based in 3 of the 5 biggest producers in OPEC and are allies. You don't blockade your allies full stop.

Now this isn't a message to cause any panic and actually be a good thing for Tullow in the long run.

So basically respectable analysts are looking at the record breaking production surge in the USA and after Q1 next year the logical next move for Saudi Arabia is to flood the market for 6 months to damage US production. The US has benefitted from the OPEC+ cuts but has continued to squeeze out more and more production. Dropping the oil price to say $50, boosts the world economy and also puts a lot of oilers who's breakeven is $60 in serious trouble. Why? Hedging is massively down in the last 2 years as much as by 80%. Why is this good for TLW? Well despite criticism RD confirmed the continuation of the Hedging programme here, much maligned on here.

This is obviously a hypothetical but I'd like to see the results of our current future hedging programme because although yes damage to revenue is bad generally but if you weather it better than your competition then in the medium term you reap the eventual bounce because you haven't had to cut costs to the bone to survive.

I watch a lot of the US main network news and this topic has been covered across the reputable business segments on CNBC, CNN and Bloomberg... so it's not conspiracy theory territory. US production is a problem for everyone not invested in the Permian basin.

Anton I went down the same path 3 years ago, basically the answer is whenever it suits them they can be up in as little as a 2 month delay or as much as 6 months. It's not like the EIA as in legislated and audited and accountable, Ghana has very little concern for transparency, maybe that will change in 20 years but there would have to be political will to put proper legislation in place. Plus it suits TLW as it doesn't want these figures out before it can report them itself.

I'm delusional? So the published capital markets day plan saying $700M returned to shareholders by 2027 makes the BOD firmly delusional as well. It's 2024 in 4 weeks... tick tock.

Questioning my financial knowledge, when you've dropped your own pants several times trying to sound like you know what you're on about regarding debt, entirely your prerogative I'm only a chartered accountant by trade after all. Oh and by the way it's plus SOFR not insert central bank acronyms... you're welcome.

Total nonsense from start to finish. Go and have a look at the ticket value of the bonds. Cheap debt they are not, but was based entirely on TLW's deteriorating rating. So your entire cheap debt waffle is just that. Also are you mad? No oiler of any size generates enough clear cash to pay off debt like it's a credit card. You talk about 2P and then equate no value to it. Long term debt is taken out based not just on the cash you can generate but the value of your underlying assets. Are you even invested in the right industry? You do know it's the same as mining in terms of high CAPEX. I mean Kenya will cost $3.2B shall we get Rahul to put that on his credit card?

Who is this dope? Talks about 2019 and can't even see the differences. Try $800M difference bud. God go back further and it's $1.6B less. Jeez.