Member Info for Scot126

Nonsense, Bonkle. 88E and HUR are nothing like each other. HUR is an offshore, fractured basement play and 88E is an onshore, conventional Alaska play.

Hi cbaron - you have correctly, IMO, picked up on the reason for the necessarily secretive approach PANR management has had to adopt when sharing data on Theta West with the market. The land you have correctly identified, chiefly to the west and northwest of the western boundary of the Talitha Unit, was either unleased SoA land or acreage "handed back" to the SoA in November '20 by 88E.

The auction was delayed this year from its usual mid-December date to 13th January, due to the pandemic. I would contend that had PANR shared its IP about Theta West, say, in the summer of 2020 then the 60,000 acres secured by PANR at the auction in January wouldn’t have cost a mere $3.27m and that Conoco or Exxon or some other super major would now be the proud owner of those blocks.

You’ll also note that PANR bought out Otto Energy’s 10.8% W.I. in Talitha on or around the 19th January. I always thought there was a decent chance of that happening because Otto is now focussed on its GoM operations. I had imagined this buyout would have occurred *after* the Talitha results. Therefore I was delighted to read the 19th January RNS and think the BoD played a blinder on their auction strategy. GLA

Hi BeanLade - in case Tony's response wasn't clear to you, here's a simple example. There are two identical houses located in a cul-de-sac. Both houses have been valued by the local estate agent at £1000 each. You own one house with your wife, split 50:50........the house is still worth £1000 but there are two equal shares with each share being worth £500. Agreed so far? The other house is owned by you and your four siblings because you all inherited it from your parents. That means there are 5 of you who each have a £200 share of the house. Both houses are still valued at £1000. So the number of shares doesn't affect the value of the house in any way. So, too, with listed companies.

Very, very roughly: 88E has 12.5 billion shares, closing price in the UK on Friday was 1.5p so the market capitalisation is 12.5 billion x £0.015 = £187.5m The calculation for "other" company which looks like shares an asset with 88E, according to Dave Wall the boss of 88E no less, is 700m shares x £0.3425 = £239.75m

Hope that helps.

Hi Tony - I commend you for your reading and for the follow up questions. Your explanation about only the Kuparuk horizon being "oil wet" shows that you've either read the Baker Hughes report or have listened to that important part of the webinar. Feels like you may have done both? (john389 - should have said the PANR webinar can be found easily on YouTube)

Next step - the NPV per barrel research. Totally agree with Newanda's suggestion that the best guide by a country mile is to use the Oil Search/Repsol/Armstrong deal as your benchmark. I'd add further that Rabito79 has, IMO, done the most comprehensive investigation into that transaction of all of the regular PANR posters over on the other place. Perhaps head over there and search through his posts?

There's a reason $3.10 is so often used as a starting off point for valuing a barrel in the ground in Alaska. It's the number attached to a recently executed transaction, complete with a large number of similar-ish characteristics such that it offers the best stab at a concrete readacross. GLA

Hi john389 - Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. Billions with a 'b'. Serious suggestion for you, John. Take 2 hours out of your life, go somewhere quiet and watch the PANR webinar dated 20/4/21. Worst case? You lose 2 hours your life but you probably learn some decent background info on the oil sector. Best case? You work out why your post timed at 10.23am today is, IMHO, correct.

Hi Tony - not sure "skipped" is the correct word, lol, but it's absolutely true that only the deepest target, the Kuparuk, was flow-tested. The remaining four targets are currently sitting behind casing patiently waiting to be flow-tested next winter season! And, yes, running out of time due to the winter drilling season ending is the explanation. GLA

Part 2. Yes, inextricably linked but only the Central and Eastern Blocks and maaaayyyyybe the Western Blocks. Even then, 88E will be the minority W.I. party despite what an out of context diagram in an RNS may imply, lol.

Edit: please read "fanatics" within quotation marks wherever you read that word in my posts below. Some, many even, are not "fanatics" but the 88E internet forums are certainly displaying cultish and fanatical characteristics which are, objectively, far departed from any equity market-accepted view of the fundamentals IMHO.

Hi olderwiser - suggestion? Head over to A.d/v.F)N for all things PANR. This is not, IMHO, the appropriate venue for you to gain or share your knowledge.

I did invoke your name - correct. Are you aware of the GB/SoA/BofA/Farallon history as you will be aware of the historical effect the Tax Rebate repayment moratorium had on 88E? If so, would you mind correcting Jofhoggit and Ddraig about Farallon being the decision-maker to sell PANR shares since mid-Jan? Appallingly, this Jofhoggit poster accused Bob R of promoting PANR stock one evening and issuing a sell instruction for his stock the next and b) accused the GB founders of receiving monthly payments on the quiet from Farallon. Your HC reputation has been well-argued and deserved. To read you rebutting these dreadful accusations would, I contend, nip this nonsense in the bud before it becomes another falsely "accepted truism" on the impressively large 88E "fanatics" cyber network.

I have Kup River OIP figure of 14bbo and Prudhoe's OIP is 32bbo. We were informed during the webinar the oil accumulation at Theta West would be between those two figures and may eventually be larger than the Prudhoe Bay OIP figure, agreed? I went with 20bbo OIP for Theta West but would not be surprised if the figure published is larger than that, *and* that over time this OIP figure will increase upwards towards the Prudhoe figure. The other 6bbo OIP comes from Talitha, Alkaid and Leonis (4+1+1). Naturally, like you, I'll be more focussed for financial modelling purposes on the TRR and NPV guidance when published.

I'd urge you to make your UK home on the other place I refer to. The volume and quality over there is, objectively, better . No particular rhyme or reason, just the way it's happened over time. This site is the favoured venue for 88E discussion fyi.

To assist in adding preliminary credibility to the OIP estimate I posted I suggest two subjects for you to research. A) results from the SoA lease auction with special emphasis on the blocks PANR secured to the west and northwest of the Western boundary of the Talitha Unit. B) search out some volumetric work done by industry veteran Telemachus1 who examines the implications of the Talitha data, the guidance released thus far, the Baker Hughes VAS report and then overlays that new info on to the aerial data plus oil column size revised guidance. Hope that assists and also hope to see your moniker over o

Hi Newanda. - I very much enjoyed reading your posts and followed exactly the message you were trying (and succeeding!) to convey. A couple of observations.
1) I've written before that 88E is built in Dave Wall's image. I offer up as proof of same DW's decision to include a couple of diagrams in his latest RNS, which because of a complete and quite deliberate lack of context, could lead the casual reader to understand that the majority of the "overlap at Talitha" thesis will benefit 88E rather than PANR. Folk like Brom, Ddraig, Rabito79 know fine well the most likely scenario is a split of 90:10 to 80:20 in PANR's favour. Do any of these guys (with the exception of Rabito79) provide the bulletin boards with this context? Of course not! And why should they? If the MD of 88E doesn't provide context (deliberately) then why should these knowledge private investors? Against their financial self-interest => label as mentally ill someone who does a simple comparative analysis.

I do follow your logic, Newanda, that if PANR's fundamentals improve (as appears to have been trailed in the webinar) then some of that news will percolate through to the 88E fanatics. But here we reach another obstacle in my view. Knowledgeable folk like Brom will keep schtuum at best, pooh pooh it at worst. That's fine, I get it. But there exists out in the ether a massive disinformation campaign which is already disseminating the unimpeachable understanding that 88E's fundamentals are stronger than PANR's but that *any* future news from PANR is sour grapes in an attempt to "catch up with 88E" plus this news news benefits 88E more than PANR (ref overlap from Talitha theory which now forms part of the 88E investment case, labelled as such by none other than Dave Wall himself!).

There is no space for any new fundamental news to be absorbed by the 88E fanatics because a) the. 88E management doesn't provide context b) educated private investors don't provide honest commentary c) comparative analysis is chased off and labelled mentally ill and as for twitter/reddit/stocktwits.....holleeeee sh^t, the diagram from the 88E RNS has been retweeted/reposted so often it's now an accepted truism that Talitha's overlap is larger on the 88E side of the boundary! For goodness sake, someone on the 88E thread tried to promulgate a Theta West theory to his fellow posters. The vast, vast majority of users of that thread don't know PANR bought large tracts of land given up by 88E last year!!! The dishonesty and misinformation is terrible.

Tony and others - you have repeatedly challenged the more prolific posters elsewhere to list the characteristics which they have assessed make one. Investment s superior option to another. Correct? And the response? Crickets.

I accept many readers will not believe me when I state earnestly that I wish both companies become roaring success stories for all concerned. But that sentiment does not mean the mathematically irrational differential in market caps ought not to be commented on. And that's where you find me. GLA

Part 2 - Tony, Newanda's post below is well worth reading and digesting IMHO. He describes better than I ever could the immediate private shareholder response to the RNS dated 19/4/21, and then following the publication of the Baker Hughes VAS report and webinar on 20/4/21.

Hmmmm, PANR's market profile? The market participant setting the marginal price for PANR is the private investor. Or. at least that *was* the case until mid-January when Farallon started to derisk their position by selling PANR shares in the market. If you wish a comprehensive explanation of the history behind this activity, head over to A.D/V.F/N and look at posts from Darcon and me on the subject.

This has created, certainly for traders and less so for investors, the presence of an overhang of stock in the market. In truth, and for the record, I haven't a scooby if Farallon wish to sell 1 more share this year or 100m shares. What I can tell you is that I'm working with a small group to bid Farallon for all/some of Farallon's stock so we'll see what happens. Read my posts on the other place for updates on that attempt.

Returning to this "disconnect" question. 88E's Dave Wall is, in my experience, one of the best promoters and wheeler dealers in small cap resource stocks I've ever observed.that His PR skills and capabilities are far more aggressive (and effective? Certainly with private investors, less so for institutions IMO) than PANR management has exhibited. At this point I'm going to disagree with you because I think more people are aware of 88E than are aware of PANR. The very fact that it has taken Dave Wall to expressly add the "overlap from Talitha" thesis to 88E's investment case before you or anyone else has popped up on any of the various PANR forums appears to support this contention, non? On all traditional E&P metrics and data available, PANR's mkt cap ought to be many multiples of 88E's right now, today. Mathematically, there is no doubt in my mind about this.

The 88E social media phenomenon has, whether by accident or design (doesn't matter which, net effect is identical) turbo-charged 88E quite literally to the top of small cap bulletin boards globally. It's been spellbinding and fascinating to see view this phenomenon, for me anyway.

So, for me, it's a mixture of the market not understanding the results/data from Talitha + PANR operating under the radar in comparison to 88E's front'n'centre unapologetic approach to PR and promotion + the short term "fear" of Farallon's intentions + the turbo-charged effect of the 88E social media phenomenon where, wrongly IMO, thousands of especially US retail investors think that 88E's fundamentals exceed those of PANR when the exact opposite is the case.

I'm a fundamental investor by style so these short term moves, whilst frustrating, are just a question of timing. The fundamentals will out IMHO. You've listened to the webinar. The RNS heading down the tracks towards us prior to 20th May is likely to c

Hi Tony - some logical questions IMO. How so? Because I've asked myself some of these questions too!

1) "everything appeared to exceed expectations" - yes, on the data you go on to list but there's no getting away from the fact that the company spudded the drill planning to flow-test 4 targets. Sure, logs saw four targets increase to five but only the deepest (Kuparuk) horizon was tested and the shallower four targets remain untouched behind casing waiting for next winter. Yes, the "tests" you ask about are indeed going to be flowtests on BFF Lower, BFF Upper, SFS and SMD (deepest to shallowest).

2) Kuparuk; oil wet v's water wet. This characteristic was, sadly, diagnosed by Baker Hughes right at the end of the season. No where else on the ANS is the Kuparuk oil wet so it was entirely reasonable at the time for PANR to have used different techniques and chemicals when testing this horizon. There can be positives to an oil wet reservoir but let's be ultra-conservative. Guidance on the Kuparuk was for a memorable resource of 340-500mmbo. Let's reduce that to 300mmbo, say? The company still maintains the data collected and interpreted by PANR/eSeis/Baker Hughes/Schlumberger supports their guidance that Talitha contains "over a billion barrels of recoverable oil" .

cbaron - disagree with you about talking about another stock on this thread, and here's why. It's a vast generalisation but it's true (!)....the PANR private shareholder is waaayyyyyy more comfortable and focussed on traditionally-accepted fundamentals than his/her 88E equivalent. It's just the way it is, it's neither right nor wrong, just two different styles . In addition, you'll have read my argument that the minute Dave Wall made the "overlap from Talitha" a new and central plank of the 88E investment case, as he *most decidedly did* in 88E's ANN/RNS published this week, then comparative analysis becomes a necessity for the fundamental investor, not just a "nice to have". You'll note, cbaron and tony, that no-one on the 88E thread has written one sentence in response to my questions about the differential in NPV per barrel. There's a reason for that and it ain't because 88E's figure is going to be higher than PANR's (in a scenario where all projects are confirmed as commercial, of course).

cbaron - suggestion? The whole "far fewer shares" thing is a massive distraction, and I suspect you already know this because you go on to use the word denominator. There is a culture in USequity markets and to a slightly lesser degree in Oz where penny dreadful stocks are priced in small fractions of dollars to symbolise their youthful and unproven track record or potential. Look at the price of a Berkshire Hathaway share for an extreme example of the opposite side of the scale. The penny stock idea is less pronounced in the UK but it still exists to a smaller extent. Notwithstanding all of the above, the only true and pure comparative figure is market cap or enterprise value. Forget about number of shares on issue unless you wish to focus only on gullible US retail punters - IMHO. GLA

Hi cbaron - apology accepted. Don't worry about it for another second because last I checked digital barbs from anonymous usernames don't cause too much pain ;) If you're serious about doing some proper fundamental analysis I'd urge you to get stuck in to A/D/V/F/N and Re()dd()it and focus particularly on content from Telemachus1, Rabito79, Darcon, btgman, Spangle93, WesTx, doublestexan, gorgeousgeorge. In addition, there are links to the research written by O&G analysts at Canaccord and WH Ireland. Objectively, and having been in the trade myself, the two brokers are doing a very fair job covering PANR and the Alaskan assets.

tonynorstrom1 - "...might be a slightly better play in Alaska v 88E." I am being 100% serious here when I reply that I cannot think of one industry-accepted or equity market-accepted metric where PANR isn't vastly ahead of 88E using all available empirical evidence. I'll enter into the spirit of the point you're making by stipulating the following: a) Dave Wall (current MD, leaving 88E employment "in May") is *far more promotional* and plays the entrepreneurial wheeler dealer role for a resource stock on a junior market to a praiseworthy level IMHO. PANR's BoD are a different set of characters entirely and will not conduct themselves in the freewheeling manner of Dave Wall. PANR shareholders must recognise and accept this IMO. b) the social media phenomenon, whether created intentionally or by accident, has had a massive, jaw-dropping effect on 88E SP. As an investor rather than a trader, I would contend this phenomenon has not advanced the 88E investment case one iota but it has been a game changer for traders of 88E shares, no question about it c) due to the history of PANR and Great Bear, and especially since mid-January ’21, the decision by Farallon, PANR’s largest shareholder, to sell stock in the market is not unreasonably labelled an overhang. Anyone who accepts that Farallon is not inside and has a medium-to-long-term view cares not a jot about Farallon selling in the market but short term traders do. Fine.
What other metrics ought folk to look at when undertaking a comparative analysis? Potential and proven scale of projects, quality and quantity of data, depth of bench of management, partnerships with external companies, NPV per barrel (cost of production which incorporates distance to the two most important pieces of established infrastructure = Dalton Highway and TAPS, number of wells, EUR of wells, grade of oil in API, cost of transport, cost of treatment, capital required to first production and thus first cash inflow, duration in years before first production and thus first cash inflows and potential to self-finance future capex and much more), located on State v’s Federal land with differing legal, political and regulatory regimes, etc. I’m being utterly serious when I state I cannot see one fundamental metric where 88E are ahead of PANR, but I am delighted to be corrected. Up to you. GLA

Hi Rabito79 - totally agree with you on the OTC valuation "expertise". That said, I'd have thought the US institutional investor class would be a natural addressable market for PANR and Canaccord to focus on once the maiden guidance on Theta West has been published via RNS. Bob Rosenthal told us to expect that guidance to arrive "within a month" of 20/4/21. US fund managers ought to be, all things being equal, far more adept at valuing conventional oil assets in Alaska due to their geography and the 50 years of assumed institutional knowledge. Let's see what happens. GLA

Kinda right, kinda wrong, sam245. 88E's Central and Eastern Blocks are close to good infrastructure being TAPS and the Dalton Highway. Umiat, Harrier, Merlin, Western Blocks and Yukon are infrastructurally-challenged. Thus my contention that even if the comparative scale of the resources were similar (they're not, PANR:88E => 4:1 IMO) but the NPV per barrel calculation is also strongly in PANR's favour, on a comparative basis. Across the two sets of acreage, and sorting for the proportion of 88E assets by volume by location, I could easily support a plc NPV per barrel ratio of 2.5:1 to 3:1, PANR:88E. Of course, these factors are subject to a multiplier effect, not addition. GLA

......(cont) It just doesn't make any sense to me but, as you state, I am decidedly not in full possession of the facts, and that is a fact!

Tony - a suggestion Give yourself 1hr 45 mins of peace and quiet. Listen and watch the PANR webinar dated 20/4/21 and then come back with questions. If I'm correct, and more importantly if PANR/Great Bear/Riverstone.eSeis/Baker Hughes/State of Alaska Dept of Natural Resources are correct, those 105 minutes will be the most rewarding of your investment life.

Trust this answer at least part of your question? GLA

Hi tonynorstrum1 - I'm not sure about the question you are posing nor am I sure any stab I have at answering it may be accurate but here goes. *Solely* on the basis of the volume of data, accuracy of data, bang-for-buck at current levels, potential upside to accepted scale then for me PANR really is streets ahead of 88E. There's a phrase "there's no comparison" - the term taken literally sees PANR *at least* 3x larger in mkt cap terms v's 88E's mkt cap as a starting point in my estimation but the implication of the phrase is also true IMO.

You are correct that I 100% accept and look on with fascination (that really is the best description I can give of my attitude, "gall" is just plain wrong in my case anyway) at the social media phenomenon that is $EEENF/reddit/stocktwits/twitter. I haven't a scooby whether this phenomenon was sparked by a bright idea on the part of someone associated with 88E after the Gamestopgate saga or whether it just sparked organically. The effect is the same and it's been spectacular, fascinating, bewildering....all at the same time.

There's another big difference which is playing out as we speak. 88E has been created very much in Dave Wall's (MD of 88E) image. Look back a couple of months before the social media phenomenon and of you'd read the 88E lse bulletin board you'd have seen shareholders threatening pretty much daily to take a dump on DW's front lawn in Perth!! It's a complete irony that, along with a few others, I actually thought DW was an excellent market operator, an objectively excellent dealmaker and someone who, despite not having a great hand to play in terms of asset quality, secured for his shareholders the best possible opportunity to see value added to their equity, especially in the short term. We know he's departing 88E "in May" and 88E shareholders ought to be extremely interested in what DW plans to do with his 120m ordinary shares and 80m performance rights. Will he, for example, enter June with exactly the same exposure to 88E as he enters May? I began my career broking in Oz in the 1990s and anyone could buy the details of the share register if they paid the requisite fee to the registrar. I haven't a clue whether that's still the case but if I was Ddraig/JofHobbit/csw12 et al I'd be arranging to club together with the Aussie private investors to buy the registers in the first week of May and the first week of June and look for any changes in holdings. They won't though, because they're too lazy and appear unwilling or incapable of doing the required research. Their call.

What I would say is *apart* from personal health or family reasons which are *none of my business* and despite racking my brain, I cannot envision a scenario where an MD/CEO would leave a company which has a pretty decent structure in place to reward execs for advancing the investment case by, eg. delineating reserves just as it is on the cusp of a transformational and concrete proof of concept. It just doesn't mak

Hello there, csw12 and JofHoggit.

Happy to repeat for the third (or is it the fourth time now) that all you need do to learn about the oil accumulation at Theta West is to listen to the PANR webinar dated 20/4/21. Failing that, simply watch out for the maiden guidance on OIP and TRR for Theta West which, we were informed by Bob Rosenthal during the aforementioned webinar, will be published "within a month". Dinnae worry, 88E have already got their internal technical team looking at the scale of overlap at Talitha so you'll be able to read all about it on an RNS with an 88E letterhead at the top if you don't believe the PANR guys, lol.

Let's all agree to reconvene after the Theta West guidance is published, shall we?

Thing is Alaric, these pesky facts I prefer to deal in don't appear to care about Ddraig/csw12/JofHoggit's feelings. It won't surprise you to learn not one of them has had a stab at the effect on the NPV per barrel comparative calculation when comparing Talitha/Alkaid with Peregrine/Umiat. Bit odd, eh? One project is pretty much adjacent to the Dalton and TAPS, the other requires a 70+ mile pipeline to be constructed or a shorter one northwards but which will have to pay an as yet unknown tariff to even get the oil to Pump Station #1. Facts, facts, facts....most annoying, eh? GLA

16.39

Hi Brom - definitely not galling in my case but I recognise it is for other PANR shareholders because they've said so explicitly.

Me? Perplexing from a mathematical and fundamentals-driven viewpoint and bewildering from a "social media phenomenon" angle. Amazing, quite amazing. GLA

Dol03 - you haven't challenged me on one question of fact this evening.....not one. You also haven't withdrawn your claim that you believe PANR/eSeis/Baker Hughes are,kt giving you the full picture.

Honourable readers of this thread are waiting for you to provide evidence, more than just a "feeling". If not to challenge me, then certainly you can see the honour in claiming dishonesty on the part of PANR BoD/eSeis/Baker Hughes. Have you no shame, Dol03? Serious question? I follow you on Twitter via browser.....how would you feel if someone questioned your probity around the charitable subject you feel so passionate about without evidence? I contend you'd go ballistic. Do better.