RE: Yukon leases2 Jun 2021 08:34
Not convinced on that score, Blackadder2708. Certainly I accept the point about the SoA v's Federal boundary at Yukon. Yet the Fed govt's stance on the ANWR must, logically, add another layer of uncertainty (legal, funding, logistical) and thus decrease the likelihood of eventual commercial exploitation of the asset. If it's "no big deal", why did DW bid for the block at auction? He must surely have discerned a value-added strategy in bidding for the ANWR leases?
Delighted with the Willow news and noted. Unfortunately it still doesn't answer the long-standing and objectively pertinent question about Umiat/Peregrine's pathway to commerciality. Sadly there continues to be 88E shareholders active on social media/bulletin boards who don't appreciate the logistics and capex required to bring Umiat/Peregrine into production. These digital influencers don't appear to understand there's a really good reason Umiat hasn't produced a barrel of commercial oil since the 1940's due to its geographical isolation. Some even appear to believe 88E will become a producer in 2022.
It is entirely reasonable to contend that even if either Harrier or Merlin is proven to contain sufficient volumes of commercially-producable oil, and this is at least one maybe two winter seasons away in terms of data required, there is no appreciation that the logistics required to produce and move the oil will take years to build and hundreds of millions, if not more, to finance. Even if the opex per barrel at Umiat/Peregrine was exceptionally low v's other North Slope projects, it will rely on the construction of a >70 mile pipeline due east or to "piggyback" on projects to the north which by their own admission won't be in production until 2026/7 at the earliest.
So, I'm not convinced about the value of the Umiat/Peregrine Project being affected by the ANWR Biden decision. However, where I do have sympathy with your logic is in the case of 88E's Central Blocks. State land, state leases, close to TAPS and the Dalton Highway, reduced time to first oil, reduced capex required to deliver first oil.
Like others, I look forward to 88E's internal analysis on what percentage, if any, of the Kuparuk/Slope Fan System/Shelf Margin Deltaic formations are located on 88E leases. 5%? 10%? As high as 15%? Fascinating times.