Member Info for Scot126

(Cont) ......Having viewed the PANR webinar, where previously I was happy to attribute 15%, even 20% of the resource volume identified by PANR to 88E leases located to the south of Talitha, I now reckon it'll be 10% max. Which IMHO makes the 88E valuation and SP look even more out of whack with that of PANR's on a comparative basis. Think on that, mate.

FORD707 - ah, I see.

1) I'm not your mate.
2) No thanks or recognition for making a constructive decision on how to educate yourself about an investment you've chosen to make in your life. This despite the fact you are now finally admitting the fact you lack the experience/expertise to fully analyse the investment case. And yet....and yet despite accepting this, you still have the self-confidence to attempt to bully and intimidate another anonymous poster off a bulletin board just because you didn't like the content and the conclusions of his analysis, not because he had caused you any personal harm or injury. Pathetic.
3) You still don't get it. Until Dave Wall elected to mention PANR directly in one of his final ANN/RNSs and to add the Central Blocks overlap theory to the 88E investment case I had posted once, repeat once, on the 88E thread. But Dave Wall made an error. He also elected to include maps and representations of the overlap from Talitha which were incredibly misleading, giving some on lse and many OTC commentators the false impression the "southern overlap" contained a greater volume of resource than PANR. DW is a clever man. That was deliberate. I note AG has continued in DW's footsteps on that countries, relying on an unsophisticated shareholder base which doesn't have the experience to unravel the heavily bias narrative. I am not such an investor.
4) You and any other 88E shareholders may not like reading this but you're all going to have to accept it and get it into your collective brains. 88E and PANR at some point share ownership of a reservoir or maybe reservoirs. 88E posters on lse may not wish to reflect on this but our respective BoDs will be thinking about it, the regulators and administrators in Alaska will have to deal with it, equity analysts will have to deal with it, shareholders will have to deal with it.....and many more besides. When more than one party owns an asset throughout history, law and maths have been used to ascribe value to each parties' specific share of an asset. You and others keep on attacking PANR shareholders who comment on the 88E boards. WE HAVE SHARED ASSETS. In the O&G sector this happens ALL THE TIME. The valuation metrics between the two companies are waaaayyyyy out of whack. Whether that means 88E is waaaayyyy overvalued or PANR is waaayyyy undervalued (or a bit of both) is a worthy subject to address. If an 88E shareholder is happy to play the US OTC sentiment volatility, game on, knock yourself put. But 88E is trading miles ahead of the fundamentals in isolation and out of whack on a comparative basis v's PANR. I'll go further.....I suspect there are long term posters on the 88E lse thread and associates of the company who know this fine well, are deliberately obfuscating when representing their thoughts and who are pulling the wool over folk like you who perhaps don't have the experience to spot the red flags.

Think on the above because there's more bad news to come IMHO. Ha

FORD707 - I'm not certain but I suspect you need to look up what a Net Present Value (NPV) calculation involves and what it means when calculating an asset's value based on the cash it will generate over the duration of productive ownership. This figure is then used as a basis for acquirers of assets to formulate their bid price which in turn may be simplified by, eg in the O&G sector. calculating a "price per barrel in the ground" figure.

If I'm right, and I repeat "IF", about you misunderstanding what you've been reading on bulletin boards and listening to on the webinar, can you not see how ill-advised your attitude has been towards those who possess greater experience/expertise in these matters? I've been doing this since 1994 as a career. It definitely doesn't guarantee success every time but it does mean I'm comfortable with the terms used and data being shared.

I'll repeat again. 88E is miles and miles and miles behind PANR in terms of data collection and evidentiary proof of concept. PANR/Great Bear spent $80m on 3D seismic over the last decade. What amount has 88E invested in 3D seismic over that time period? Do you know?

I have spent thousands of hours researching PANR and Alaska (and thus 88E). When I stated my analysis suggests PANR's mkt cap should be 6x or 7x larger than 88E's on any given day it's not because I'm allergic to the number '8' when I see it or I think the new 88E MD smells of rotting fish. I'm just applying valuation methods which have been used in the equity markets for decades in the and directing them towards the facts and data available about each company.

It only becomes personal or emotionally-driven when people refuse to accept empirical facts/data, when they seek to pull the wool over the eyes of the less experienced or when folk are accused of ramping/deramping when it's the maths which is doing the talking and not, as believeed by many, because there's some sort of conspiracy wafting around the trading in XYZ stock.

Perhaps listen to the webinar again and a) have a mull b) Google stuff you don't understand c) ask questions on topics of you know you don't comprehend d) try to take on board the research undertaken by folk with integrity like Rabito79 and Olderwiser.

FORD707 - Your post timed @ 20:16 on Thursday is noted.

Sounds like you're opening your mind a tad so please take the following in the manner in which it was written. Your earlier post timed @ 20:10 on Thursday sounds like you may have muddled up some of the numbers you heard?

1) The 200m figure you heard was the number of barrels across the Alkaid and Talitha Units which the company believes can be extracted using wells situated on pads within the "disturbed corridor" of land at either side of the Dalton Highway.

2) I'm not certain but I suspect the 3 billion figure you heard was the combined NPV10 figures for Alkaid and SMD-B with oil priced at $60 per barrel. Have a look at the tables released in yesterday's RNS and you can view the NPV10s of both reservoirs using various different oil prices.

3) The readacross to Theta West from yesterday's release of NPV10 guidance for Alkaid and SMD-B would suggest Theta West has an NPV10 value of c.$8.4bn at $60 oil and c.$12.3bn at $70 oil. Please note this is an *exceptionally* rough calculation and readacross. In fact, I strongly suspect the NPVs per barrel for Theta West will be superior to those achieved for Alkaid and SMD-B. Nonetheless it'll give you a very rough guide to the upside risk from Theta West alone.

4) Remember we still have the Slope Fan System, Kuparuk and SMD-A and SMD-C revised guidance to come, complete with their own NPV tables. Using a $70 oil price, you can easily see why some folk getting up towards an NPV10 value for the whole asset of $20bn. My *personal* opinion is that the NPV10 will prove to be in excess of $20bn because my research suggests management is being deliberately conservative with their guidance, particularly when reviewing their Theta West guidance. The proposed drill this coming Winter season at the crest of Theta West a few miles north-west of Talitha-A could, depending on a successful outcome, see some truly eye-watering upgrades to that reservoir.

5) If, and I repeat if very deliberately, the PANR geological model is proved to be largely correct then £6 per share on exit will be less than my model suggests could be achieved, all other things being equal like oil remaining around $70. FWIW and IMHO.

11.01

Hi EmeraldCarrots - aye, maybe so. But equally, and having listened to the webinar yesterday, any sellers out there will have to accept the risk of waking up one morning to an RNS announcing a farm in, thus guaranteeing that all planned winter operations will go ahead. Imagine what the opening share price will be should such an RNS drop any time from next week onwards?

Health warning.

Before attaching too much credibility, actually make that before attaching *any* credibility and to tradininSothAfr's posts, please take a brief moment to look at his posting history. A more perfect example of fact-free but emotion-heavy stream of consciousness you could not wish for.

Give yourselves an uppercut Saffer and GS. We know from ShareTalk they did their prep/run through at the weekend with the PANR webinar presenters. Tech gremlins happen so I'm perfectly happy to take the explanation at face value. Would you have preferred the webinar to go ahead and for the audience to have received an intermittent signal or some of us couldn't log on or somesuch? Jeepers, what miserable and conspiracy-laden reactions.

For the rest of us, looking forward to tomorrow. GLA

(Cont)......in the sector for decades. Easy to register, Google it or look at the latest RNSs. Up to you......

Tell you what, Kpasa, you get Brom/Ddraig/Jefhobbit and all the other prolific posters on this thread to answer the question I've been posing for weeks now, and I promise to intercede on your behalf to obtain an answer to your 12.25pm question of today.

As a reminder, I've been asking the thread's prolific posters to ascribe an approximate percentage value of 88E's mkt cap to each of the three main project locations, being Umiat/Peregrine, Icewine and Yukon.

Perhaps like me you'll have noted not one of them has elected to have a stab at answering me? The reason why they're avoiding answering the question on a public forum is that applying long-established market valuation techniques and using the publicly available information, 88E is trading miles and miles and miles ahead of its fundamental value. If they elected to answer my question it would mean the likes of Brom/Ddraig/Jefhobbit admitting 88E relies for a good portion (in excess of 50% IMHO) of its current mkt cap on the uneducated hype brought about by US retail OTC adventurers.

Rabito79 has repeatedly drawn attention to the *fact* Brom flat out admitted he trades the peaks and troughs of 88E, he admitted it in black and white on this very thread........JofHobbit just flat out admitted that's EXACTLY how to view 88E in his post today mocking another poster for not realising 88E is good for a once a year trading opportunity.....and goodness only knows what Ddraig is up to but he's an angry fella, that's for sure.

Kpasa - why did ELKO sell their shares? The guys who knew the most about the data collected at Merlin and they sold out? Same with APDC? And before anyone answers that DW doubled his personal holding in 88E on departure by buying stock in the market, that's utter nonsense. Look in the latest Annual Report.....read up about "Performance Rights" and you'll arrive at the correct answer. Don't believe me? Think I'm some sort of paid troll? Ask the company. Write to the NOMAD. Join together with other shareholders and buy the share register from the Registrar.

Here's my current thinking FWIW. 88E will one day come to rely *completely* for its underlying value on its Central Block asset. God/Mother Nature didn't take into account the straight lines on a map humans would draw millions of years later to bring the oil to the surface.

88E's northern neighbour spent $80m on 3D seismic since 2010. They can *see* the overlap of the Kuparuk, Shelf Margin Deltaic (and perhaps Slope Fan System) into the Central Blocks. Sure it's downdip from Talitha/Alkaid but it's certainly worth educating yourself about, non?

The neighbour's webinar begins at 4pm tomorrow. I give you my word - as a fundamental investor, if positions were reversed I'd make damn sure I was, at the very least, educating myself about a shared asset and attempting to come to some preliminary value for it. What's the worst which could happen? Waste 90 mins of your time whilst learning from folk who have worked i

Because, Ddraig, as a party to the litigation that would constitute privileged information, "inside information" and accordingly they couldn't have acted in the secondary market. C'mon Ddraig, thought you knew more than every accountant you ever employed.

Since I've got your attention, Ddraig, please answer the question directed towards all the prolific commentators on this thread. Of the three main 88E projects by location (Umiat/Peregrine, Icewine, Yukon) please assign an approximate percentage of the total value of 88E to each of the three projects? Simple question asked for decades/centuries when pricing a tangible asset.

And a heads up to all other readers. Ddraig/Brom/Jofhobbit et al have never answered this question and never will because it would see the 88E balloon pop as the speculative air surrounding the assets came slap bang against empirical data. Don't believe me, no worries.....but fact check me, fact check olderwiser who is an 88Eveteran, fact check rabito79. Do you see Ddraig offering the same transparency. If not, why not?

Kylie1 - No.

Hi rodrod1 - I don't doubt Conoco and the Federal government will appeal the Court's decision on Willow. At the very minimum, it would appear to be a logical conclusion that Conoco's forecast date for first commercial oil production from Willow will have to be extended past 2027. Fair?

Meanwhile the State of Alaska and the owners of TAPS will both wish (require/need?) the Willow volume to be provided by other projects. And none better than the southern central Slope acreage of XXXX and 88E?

Hopefully regular readers will recall my repeated attempts to have some of the prolific 88E commentators publish their assessments of the approximate percentage value they ascribed to 88E's three main geographical locations; being Umiat/Peregrine, Central Blocks and Yukon. You'll all hopefully remember that not one of the commentators, not Brom, not Ddraig, not JofHobbit....none of them even had a stab at providing an answer to a very reasonable and basic question.

I hope and trust it's starting to dawn on readers why I posed the question? It was not a trick question.

rodrod1 - no need to write off Umiat/Peregrine until the Willow legal proceedings are concluded but we all know any future commercialisation of Umiat/Peregrine relies heavily (exclusively?) on Conoco's developments to the north of 88E acreage in the NPRA. You have already made the rational realignment in respective 88E asset values in the light of the Court's decision on Willow and to focus shareholders' attention on 88E's Central Blocks asset.

If you and other 88E shareholders are now having to reassess the relative valuations of your three projects then I would respectfully suggest it is beholden on you all to start to read up on XXXX's Talitha, Theta West and Alkaid projects, with particular attention to be paid to the Shelf Margin Deltaic, Kuparuk and maybe Slope Fan System horizons.

But perhaps think on this when you do so? Let's say 88E benefits from a boundary extension and, say, 10% of XXXX's resource is attributed to 88E....actually Why not make that 15%? Is the next logical question not, "Why on earth is XXXX's mkt cap not multiples of 88E's if the vast majority of the asset is located on XXXX's acreage?"

If you're not asking that question then you're ignoring the fundamentals.....and that's fine. But you must therefore admit to yourself you're trading the hype and social media volume associated with 88E and not the fundamentals. To be clear, I don't know if the mkt is massively undervaluing XXXX, over-valuing 88E or a mixture of both but the respective mkt caps are majorly out of whack *when examining the fundamentals alone*. GLA

Worth remembering today:

1) All 160k acres of PANR's leases are located on State of Alaska land and *NOT* Federal land.

2) No polar bear activity on PANR's leases as too far away from coastal areas.

3) The State government and the owners of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) are going to wish (need?) the proposed daily volume due to have been produced at Willow to now come from other projects. None better than Central Slope projects immediately adjacent to the Dalton Highway and TAPS???

4) I don't doubt Conoco and the Federal government will appeal this decision on Willow. At the very least it will delay first production of commercial oil past the proposed 2027 date. That said, it reinforces the crucial benefit of being located on State rather than Federal land. I'm afraid 88E will likely suffer in the blow-back from this decision but it may at least lead to some of their more balanced followers to focus on the potential value of their Central Blocks => on PANR's objectively superior asset to the north of their boundary. Perhaps don't expect a Damascene conversion by 88E's loudest social media supporters but we may start to see some attention come PANR's way as a result of the Court's decision?

5) Delighted to see the webinar is confirmed and log in details provided etc, etc. Good stuff.

Corrections to post below:

1) ".......perpetuates the mathematical fallacy the two companies ought to be valued at a similar amount."

2) "Whether the market is massively under-valuing PANR, over-valuing our southern neighbour or a mixture of both is up to each investor."

Hi FORD707 - if you "see both companies in a very similar position" then you are not assessing the two entities based solely on the fundamentals. And that's fine. But to make such a sweeping statement without context or an explanation of how you arrived at that conclusion perpetuates the mathematical fallacy the two companies ought to be valued at a similar value.

It's clear from reading your posts, to me anyway, you don't have a nefarious intent in posting this factually incorrect assertion. Rather I am going to respectfully suggest you have not conducted the rigorous and in-depth research and investigation required to complete a true comparative analysis.

If, FORD707, you would supply this thread the mathematical basis for your assertion, I'd be more than happy to debate the fundamentals with you. Please note I will not debate the outlandish claims made by social media "influencers" who share their amateurish and uneducated "due diligence" around the various platforms. I cannot debate hype and fantasies but more than happy to debate facts and market-accepted valuation techniques.

At time of writing, and with the currently available public information, PANR ought to be trading at 6 - 7x the market cap of its southern neighbour IMO. Whether the market is massively devaluing PANR, over-valuing our southern neighbour or a mixture of both is up to each investor. But on the question of fundamentals and acknowledged facts and data collection, it's not even close.

Quick fact check. The opening price is NOT the previous day's closing price. They are two different and distinct data points. If ever they are exactly the same it's due to a mathematical coincidence and that is all. H2H

Hi Iseo395 - apart from my eastwards/westwards mix up (for which I apologise), kindly point to one factual error in my post timed at 14:47.

I'm not "desperate to talk this down". My interest lies in the shared assets in the Central Blocks (and northwards) and therefore comparative analysis is an essential tool for me to use. This is because I am a fundamental investor interested in facts and probabilities, not social media hype and disinformation. As for the motivations of others, you'll have to ask them directly but if the likes of olderwiser and rabito79 come back to you with *facts*, I'd urge you to debate with both guys because they know their stuff. If you don't wish to debate them on a public forum, no worries, but at the very least factcheck their analysis and contentions, investigate the corrections they're making to some of the outrageous claims being made on social media (including this site) and perhaps, in time, you'll see it as time well spent.

correction: .....or eastwards to the Central Blocks, etc, etc

BP sold all Alaskan assets to Hilcorp. Announced in 2019, completed in 2020.

There is no way on earth 88E will be bid for by anyone at this time, never mind by a (super)major. With the exception of Umiat, 88E does not have any contingent resources never mind reserves elsewhere in its Alaskan portfolio. Umiat hasn't produced 1 barrel of commercial oil in 70 years. I'd urge 88E shareholders to ponder why that might have been and to investigate the cost of installing pipeline infrastructure northwards to Willow or westwards to the Central Blocks/Theta West/Talitha. A trite reply would perhaps be, "That the acquirer's problem, 88E are just selling the leases." That may very well be the case but someone's got to pay for it ($10m per mile in Alaska, rough guidance) and on the presumption 88E won't, the acquirer will reduce the price paid per barrel in the ground accordingly. If the volume at Umiat (and maybe Peregrine if proven in future drilling seasons?) is too low volume and/or the geology make it a marginal call in terms of commerciality (capex + opex) then, with the information currently and publicly available, I simply cannot make a case for any corporate action involving Umiat/Peregrine for at least another two years, as per the appraisal guidance for Peregrine issued today.

I'd urge all UK and Aussie shareholders not to be "taken in" by the vast number of US social media posts if fundamentals and facts are your primary focus. If you're a trader and enjoy the peaks and troughs of sentiment and hype then knock yourself out and good luck to you.

"Pantheon is extremely proud for Talitha to have been included in the esteemed ‘Top 10 discovery wells’ list of 2021, globally, by the highly regarded IHS Markit.

The key paragraph is copied below together with the hyperlink to the summary article below that."

“Of the 38 High Impact Wells (HIWs) we identified at the start of the year*, there have been a total of 17 HIWs spudded over the first six months of 2021. Of the 17 wells spudded so far; 5 are in Frontier North America, 4 in Brazil, 3 in Mexico along with 1 in Bolivia and 1 in Suriname to round off Latin America, 2 of the wells are in Norway and 1 is in Turkey. Of the top 10 discoveries so far in 2021 4 have been discovered with HIWs; the Sakarya North discovery in Turkey, Urissane in Brazil (2020 spud), Talitha in the United States and the Shafag and Asiman discovery in Azerbaijan (2020 spud).”

hTTps://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/2021-high-impact-wells-midyear-update.html

Excellent news. Ought to add to the audience interest for the forthcoming webinar on 25/8/21.