Member Info for Scot126

16:13
Lol, neither. I'm only interested in establishing the facts of an investment case in which I have an interest. I appreciate some people believe there must be more to it than that but it really is that simple. All the psychological distractions and feints of hand are of no interest to me. I'm not a trader so the short term oscillations in SP don't affect me particularly. Plus, being bluntly honest, I'm useless at all the subterfuge, multiple avatars and usernames, psychological fear and greed stuff in real life, as well as anonymously online! Nope, I really am writing what I've researched, analysed, learned about X stock or Y asset. Interested in facts, that's it really. What folk do or do not do with their own money is their concern. Doesn't stop me from fact-checking and calling out posters who, intentionally or not, are promulgating or disseminating falsehoods or opinions dressed up as facts.

Sorry to hear you were "spiked", GS. Prior to the 88E RNS of 27/4/21 I had only posted on the 88E thread once. Check it out for yourself if you don't believe me. However once Dave Wall and 88E confirmed formally in an RNS that the 88E BoD understood there was an overlap from Talitha at the Central Blocks, then attached diagrams which gave a wholly false impression of the degree of overlap and proceeded to add the "overlap theory" to the 88E narrative then any fair-minded person would agree shareholders from either/or/both companies had a legitimate interest in the market's attitude to each stock. If posters here don't think the O&G analysts at Cenkos, WH Ireland, Canaccord, etc don't also analyse/keep a file on the other stock of the pair then they're being incredibly naive.

From time to time I read on bulletin boards the allegation that "these City boys and hedge funds know what's going on behind the scenes, etc, etc". That's mostly bunkum. If, and I repeat again "if", one of this pair of stocks truly is a standard deviation ahead in terms of data collection AND asset quality and "if" the market concludes the same prior to some on here researching that possibility then there'll perhaps be a collective realisation? The realisation in this scenario is that it's 99.9% hard work and research that leads to the hedge funds and City boys being ahead of other investors. I contend that's exactly what is happening here when folk like olderwiser and Rabito79 are sharing their hard work on these forums.

14:27

Delighted to hear that, GS! Never in doubt, eh?

Whilst I admire greatly your copy'n'paste skills, it still doesn't mean 88E management believe they're entitled to label Merlin-1 a "discovery". 88E management are the very people who designed the well, ordered the follow up investigation work, received the analysis from the data collected at Merlin-1 and are responsible for the content of the company's RNSs. If, after all the investigatory and interpretative work described above, 88E management were not able to conclude the results from Merlin-1 constituted a "discovery" then that, IMHO, is extremely illuminating and ought not to be ignored or brushed off as an inconvenience to the popular narrative.

Science and the facts of an investment case could not care less if @XYZ12345678 on Twitter with a few thousand followers posts a meme with a rocket taking off and tagging $eeenf. If there was insufficient data to declare a "discovery" at Merlin-1, all the memes in the world ain't going to change that fact. That said, if the US OTC fervour allows UK and Aussie traders to trade the wave of positive but ill-informed sentiment, knock yourself out and best of British to you! Pip, pip.

That's the thing, moda, I'm not being "discriminatory". I'm a fundamental investor, have been for >25 years. I am interested solely in the facts of an investment case, nothing more, nothing less. I have no personal animus nor affection for any employees of 88E nor the shareholder base.

You are welcome to fact check any of my posts, moda. If I've made a mistake I'll retract it, apologise to the thread and thank you or anyone else for bringing it to my attention.

No worries, GS. I don't doubt you possess the integrity such that you would feel dreadful if you unintentionally misled innocent readers of this thread when you choose to post. Which makes it all the more puzzling why you would post that, In your opinion, the results from Merlin-1 did indeed amount to a "discovery" when neither you nor anyone else you can point to the use of that term by 88E management itself.

That would certainly appear, on the face of it, to be contradictory, non?

11.51 post by GS - Incorrect. Companies do not leave it to politicians or journos to declare a discovery. It's a scientific process. Using that logic, are you happy for your accountant to undertake your next root canal treatment? Thought not.

11.09 - GS's use of the words "spun" and "opinion" is both interesting and illuminating. It implicitly recognises that hype and sentiment are completely different from fundamental facts. And that's fine, no worries whatsoever. The problem arises when traders surfing the hype and sentiment seek to pull the wool over people's eyes by attempting to justify a valuation using nefarious means. Labelling as fact something that is an opinion or simply repeating falsehoods are exactly the tactics used by such parties when seeking to take advantage of the less sophisticated investors.

Correct.

Infrastructure. We were informed during the webinar that management believes 200m barrels of oil can be extracted from the Alkaid and Talitha Units from drill pads located within the disturbed corridor on each side of the Dalton Highway.

Eventually it will click with the equity market that PANR's location, whether by accident or design, will have a staggering effect on the financial model due to its proximity to the Dalton Highway and TAPS.

Hi GS - you and plenty others can continue to adopt a permissive attitude to the continuing obfuscation from 88E management all you want. In the end the facts will, and already do IMHO, speak for themselves.

There was no discovery made following the the Merlin-1 drill. That is a fact and whether it takes a day, a month or a year the market always comes back to the fundamentals.

Looking at US posters on Twitter, there may well be a sentiment uplift in $eeenf following the Murkowski/Dunleavy tweets. If folk wish to trade that, good on 'em and very best of luck. But at no point should folk kid themselves that the fundamentals support the statement that 88E has made a discovery of 1.6bn barrels because that is factually incorrect. Oh, and for the record, even if the empirical data threshold had been reached to declare a discovery at Merlin-1, 88E and social influence posters invariably appear to alight on the "best case" resource figure when pretty much the rest of the sector and market analysts look for the most statistically likely outcome. In Merlin's case it is c.400m barrels.

Have fun out there, folks. Enjoy the party but dance close to the fire exits. ;)

The journo has misunderstood the data but he's a generalist so that's understandable. If you're a shareholder or social media influencer discussing 88E specifically then it's disinformation.

Hi Blingybird,

PANR's leases are all on State land, 100%.

As for the similarities between PANR and 88E, they're certainly both exploring for oil in Alaska. It's going to sound trite but the similarities thereafter are limited, not extensive IMHO.

Hi Brian1234 - good to know, thanks for that. The thing is, it doesn't matter one jot what you think of me, the *fact* remains that Merlin-1 was not declared a "discovery" by the very management of the company which owns the asset, designed the well and published the results.

Here's the thing, Brian1234. You don't have to believe a word I say. Read 88E's RNS dated 16/8/21 yourselves. Challenge the prolific posters. Bet you'll hear crickets.

Hi Brian1234 - it's great that Lisa Murkowski is supporting the O&G industry in her State. FWIW I think she is correct to do so from a financial, fiscal and national defence standpoint. However there's something all readers of Senator Murkowski's tweet and the attached article should be aware of, and it's really, really important. At no point in the 88E ANN/RNS did the company label the Merlin-1 results as confirmation of a "discovery". Confirmation of presence of oil/hydrocarbons? Certainly. Sufficient evidence to declare a scientific discovery? No.

These are the facts, ladies and gentlemen. Any Aussie or UK readers of this thread, please DYOR and don't believe all the fantastical, ill-educated hype coming from social media influencers from the US. Also, challenge the prolific posters on here. Get them to explain the industry standards for labelling of results.

GS - head over to the Apple Delta Very Funny Number PANR thread and you'll see a very helpful poster by the name of scot126 has posted the note in full.

FFS LongTermLover. There's nothing wrong with having a negative opinion. I've had a few Target 0p short calls in my career which made my clients and me really good money at the time. What is laughable, quite frankly, is a troll like you popping up with no facts, no analysis, no research, no model, etc. Nothing. Your post is as useful to humankind as me posting, "I believe Tesla is about to make a bid for PANR at £20 per share." It's meaningless, a total waste of your time and ours. You must be able to see ?

Anyhoo, that's enough for me. I'll just post a stock response to all your future posts on this thread until and unless you supply proof, evidence and a fact-based rationale for your "beliefs" .

Bye Bye.

Hi AgeingGeo - I see Newanda already replied to you. I was going to suggest the exact same thing. Please do have a good listen to the April webinar (April 20th was the date from memory?) because a full debrief is delivered by management on the chronology of events at Talitha-A together with a description of the internal debates which occurred prior to each of the key decisions which led to the eventual end result.

I hope, like me and a few others who were equally sceptical prior to the April 20th webinar (I said so in writing on the other bulletin board), you will appreciate the transparency shown by management as they described wrestling with the data from the various logs prior to VAS unveiling the statistically highly improbable fact that the Kuparuk at Talitha-A was found to be oil wet. I suspect by the vocabulary used in your post you'll appreciate the rarity of such a find, especially when the prolific Kuparuk horizon elsewhere on the Slope possess no such characteristics!

Once you have a listen to the April webinar, if you still have questions let the thread know and I"m sure we'll do our best to point you in the right direction if we can. Good luck.

Bye Bye, LongTermLover. You're wasting your time here. Promise.

If that's what you "bet" then game on, knock yourself out. I"m sure your in-depth analytical prowess will see you close your short at 18p before too long.

You've said your piece. No need to bother us again unless you've got something value-add to post. Nothing so far. And let's level with each other here, you wouldn't have the first idea how to value an E&P stock, would you troll.

Bye Bye.

Thanks for the reply, LongTermLover. Really, really useful.

1) You didn't know the name or initials of the recently departed MD of 88E, Dave Wall. He's the guy who has driven the 88E business model of "corporate deal, promote, fundraise, promote again, traders take profits, operations disappoint (sadly) and repeat the next time. You must have also have missed the flow test at Alkaid, the IER by LKA, the VAS executive summary for Talitha-A by the actual inventor of the VAS technology, eSeis founders (who discovered the. Alpine field with reserves of 1.2bn barrels) stating he'd never seen anything like it in his whole career when questioned about Theta West and Talitha....and much more.

2) The rationale used by the stockmarket for valuing PANR's assets may not be good enough for you, and that's fine, no worries. However the risked/unrisked valuation technique has been around for decades and PANR is no exception. The brokers who cover PANR use this modelling technique.

3) No sign of your financial model for PANR? We both knew that was never going to happen. Still, the good news is your reply confirmed for all readers of this thread you're a simple troll, a very simple troll.

Bye Bye.

LongTermLover,

1) I know very little about TA but even I know there are a bunch of support levels between 59p and 18p.

2) 88E is a very different corporate animal from 88E. Since listing PANR has raised c.£150m from shareholders and has a market cap this evening of c.£410m. Ok, it's not Tessa but it's not too bad either.

3) Ok, you believe the mkt cap to be too high. Fine. Happy to debate your model and the variables you're using to determine your fair value figure. I'm sure other posters on the thread will also be grateful to read your model.

4) I know someone who has introduced two parties to PANR and the dataroom process. I know this to be a fact. Quite rightly, I do not know the identities of the two parties. I trust the introduction agent and if he states both potential farm in parties are serious and have access to the funds necessary to secure the winter operational program then that's good enough for me. It doesn't guarantee success but it certainly satisfies me that management were being straight with the webinar audience yesterday when they stated they were continuing to negotiate with potential farm in partners about partnering on 1 project, two projects and the whole Alaskan asset base. You must have missed that part when you listened to the webinar?

5) You're a troll, LongTimeLover, and not a particular good one at that. Don't bother coming back here because we'll just mock you. I've worked in the market since 1994 so I know all the tricks. Go practise on someone else.

6) I'll immediately withdraw my troll label if you post your PANR model on the thread......but we both know that ain't happening.

Sorry, corrections necessary due to auto-correct.
A) ......for making a constructive suggestion [not decision]

B) I note AG has followed in DW's footsteps on that communications strategy, relying on an unsophisticated shareholder base which doesn't have the experience to unravel the heavily biased narrative. I am not such an investor.

C) "88E and PANR at some locations share ownership of a reservoir or maybe reservoirs."

PS why do I fear and suspect there are regular 88E lse posters who are pulling the wool over your eyes and the eyes of countless others? Why will they not answer the easy question I pose about attributing a percentage value of 88E's mkt cap to the three main projects by location? Not even a hint or a whisper of a response, correct? Does this not scare the cr*p out of you. The minute any of them opted to answer is it would force them to admit 88E's market cap is largely predicated on uninformed speculative hype emanating from the US OTC retail punting market. The second tell is that folk like Brom and Jefhobbit actually ADMIT very occasionally that they're trading the peaks and troughs. This means they're relying on less sophisticated investors (like you perhaps?) to provide the environment for those trading strategies to unfold and it also means, incredibly sadly, that their posts point to a long term investment strategy and loyalty to the company, etc, etc when it's simply not the case.

(Cont) ......Having viewed the PANR webinar, where previously I was happy to attribute 15%, even 20% of the resource volume identified by PANR to 88E leases located to the south of Talitha, I now reckon it'll be 10% max. Which IMHO makes the 88E valuation and SP look even more out of whack with that of PANR's on a comparative basis. Think on that, mate.

FORD707 - ah, I see.

1) I'm not your mate.
2) No thanks or recognition for making a constructive decision on how to educate yourself about an investment you've chosen to make in your life. This despite the fact you are now finally admitting the fact you lack the experience/expertise to fully analyse the investment case. And yet....and yet despite accepting this, you still have the self-confidence to attempt to bully and intimidate another anonymous poster off a bulletin board just because you didn't like the content and the conclusions of his analysis, not because he had caused you any personal harm or injury. Pathetic.
3) You still don't get it. Until Dave Wall elected to mention PANR directly in one of his final ANN/RNSs and to add the Central Blocks overlap theory to the 88E investment case I had posted once, repeat once, on the 88E thread. But Dave Wall made an error. He also elected to include maps and representations of the overlap from Talitha which were incredibly misleading, giving some on lse and many OTC commentators the false impression the "southern overlap" contained a greater volume of resource than PANR. DW is a clever man. That was deliberate. I note AG has continued in DW's footsteps on that countries, relying on an unsophisticated shareholder base which doesn't have the experience to unravel the heavily bias narrative. I am not such an investor.
4) You and any other 88E shareholders may not like reading this but you're all going to have to accept it and get it into your collective brains. 88E and PANR at some point share ownership of a reservoir or maybe reservoirs. 88E posters on lse may not wish to reflect on this but our respective BoDs will be thinking about it, the regulators and administrators in Alaska will have to deal with it, equity analysts will have to deal with it, shareholders will have to deal with it.....and many more besides. When more than one party owns an asset throughout history, law and maths have been used to ascribe value to each parties' specific share of an asset. You and others keep on attacking PANR shareholders who comment on the 88E boards. WE HAVE SHARED ASSETS. In the O&G sector this happens ALL THE TIME. The valuation metrics between the two companies are waaaayyyyy out of whack. Whether that means 88E is waaaayyyy overvalued or PANR is waaayyyy undervalued (or a bit of both) is a worthy subject to address. If an 88E shareholder is happy to play the US OTC sentiment volatility, game on, knock yourself put. But 88E is trading miles ahead of the fundamentals in isolation and out of whack on a comparative basis v's PANR. I'll go further.....I suspect there are long term posters on the 88E lse thread and associates of the company who know this fine well, are deliberately obfuscating when representing their thoughts and who are pulling the wool over folk like you who perhaps don't have the experience to spot the red flags.

Think on the above because there's more bad news to come IMHO. Ha