Member Info for Scot126

11:38
Hi redirons - I know you believe Dave Wall bought stock in the market *after* his departure from 88E. This is not true. On departure, DW was entitled to "performance rights" as detailed in the 88E Annual Reports over a number of years. Again, if you don't believe me then at least do the following:
1) Download the Annual Report. Read the Director's remuneration/bonus awards/performance rights section in the notes and it's all laid out for you there.
2) Write to the company yourself. Explain you're a shareholder and wish a question of historical fact to be confirmed or rejected. Ask for a full breakdown of the former MD of 88E's remuneration awards, featuring specifically on all options and performance rights granted to him throughout his tenure and at the point of departure. Please also ask for the terms of any severance package to be made available to shareholders, including the exercise of options and delivery of performance rights. Ask the Chairman and Company Secretary for this information. Please also ask the Chairman to confirm in writing that the performance targets were met by departing management and to outline what those thresholds were.
3) If you don't receive any joy from the company, then write to their auditor, the ASX and ASIC highlighting that you have posed various factual and historical questions to the company and you have not received an appropriate response.
4) Look at the latest register of Top 20 shareholders and keep monitoring it. We know the contractors who were paid in shares for their work on Merlin-1 have already sold into the spike from earlier this year. Has DW maintained his personal holding at 240m shares, approx half of which were performance rights granted on departure from his role as MD of 88E?
5) redirons - I don't know if you're a good person or not, although from reading your posts I don't perceive any ill intent. Objectively, you must surely realise that by repeating on a public forum a factual error which can be easily rebutted by reading an item from the Annual Report is not an honourable or ethical way to behave? You'd surely feel guilty if folk who read your post acted on your statement? You surely owe it to yourself and anyone who reads this thread to fact check yourself, even if you don't wish to fact check me?
6) To all other readers. Remember the huge, massive, ginormous song'n'dance about contractors being paid in shares, how they knew best because they were on the front line with the best access to the data, etc, etc? They've sold up. Look at the register. Also, DW did not buy 120m shares in the market with his own cash after he departed. Nope, he's now retained in a corporate advisory capacity and, IMH*O*, just earned a multiple six figure sum from the recent fund raise.

11:55 (cont)
Guys - please don't go down the cul-de-sac of gas and the HRZ shale/unconventional. You don't have to believe me. Listen to your own BoD for goodness sake. They're not touting the unconventional narrative any longer and neither have they *ever* included the potential of commercial gas as a key plank in the 88E investment case. C'mon folks, 88E are, objectively, extremely effective at pushing a narrative out into the market. Do you really think that if either gas or shale looked like a multi-billion dollar win for the company they'd be mute over both strategies???????

Hi chrissev1 & rfarfa - No, no it doesn't. Keshla1295's post was wonderfully written and he sounds like a lovely fella. However, a massive gas find is utterly worthless until the infrastructure required to transport the gas to a market, any market is installed. Let's look at just some of the steps required to get there so we can all agree we're being realistic here, ok?
1) 88E to delineate and flow test the gas reservoir. How to fund that? How many winter seasons will that take? Will 88E shareholders accept this strategy because it will mean massive dilution to the asset or massive dilution in equity terms to fund such a drilling and testing operation.
2) I don't think anyone here genuinely believes 88E will ever have the financial muscle to install a gas pipeline to run parallel with TAPS. All agreed? Same goes for constructing a port on the coast and a facility to convert the gas into a ship transportable product. Agreed?
3) For either a pipeline or port to be constructed, it will require overwhelming political support from politicians in Alaska (which I believe is certainly achievable) but it will also require the State and its residents to make a substantial investment in their own infrastructure. It's going to be exceedingly difficult to access the huge capital required (and let's be clear a pipeline or port is going to cost billions and billions of dollars) because the SoA has demonstrated a devastating and foolish attitude to the O&G industry by failing to repay the tax credits from its exploration rebate scheme to the tune of $750m approx. Uh-uh. This time, it's going to require the politicians *and the electorate* to smell the coffee and accept that they might have to put up with a reduced annual dividend for a few years to facilitate a new resource industry, natural gas. How many years do you think it will take for that to coalesce around a practical solution?
4) Then there's the world wide attention in the infrastructure. The port solution is going to be the most visible. It'll rely on icebreakers or global warming to open up the Passage all year round and that becomes a Federal issue. I put it to all readers that with a Democrat in the White House, the port plan won't even move 1 millimetre forward for the next 3 years. A pipeline parallel to TAPS would appear to be easier politically but the port at Valdes will require gas treatment plants and the port itself will require massive investment. Billions and at least 10-15 years?
5) With all the steps above, and hundreds more I haven't thought of, there is no equity analyst in the world nor sector actor who will value 88E's gas above zero *currently*.
6) Where Keshla will *hopefully* be correct is 88E's acreage at the Central Blocks. If, and I repeat if, there's a commercial overlap from the nothern neighbour and *if* the northern neighbour delineates and proves up a new oilfield at Alkaid/Talitha/Theta West then 88E could very well have an asset which fits Keshla's description.

20:46
Again with the inappropriate reference to another poster's private life, Blackadder2708. Bit odd, bit weird, and nothing to do with oil exploration in Alaska.

Hi Blackadder2708 - how's about you not passing comment on my private life and I'll promise not to comment on yours, eh? Also, delighted to hear it's sunny where you are. Wasn't where I am.

I'm not "warning", that's *not* my motivation. This is not a battle of wills, intellect, volume or communications skills. For a fundamental investor like wot I am it *always* comes down to a question of the *facts* (as best as they can be established) and maths. That's it, no more, no less. I fully appreciate this is not your investment style but it is the style of many investors around the world., perhaps even the majority of investors globally and certainly the majority of the professionals on the buyside. Whatever an investor's preferred methodology, I'm yet to meet a successful investor/trader for whom a wilful refusal to even be mildly curious about the empirical facts of a listed company are of no interest to them whatsoever. It's totally up to you whether you wish to be in that camp but shutting down those who *do* examine the facts and use valuation methods which have been employed for, literally, decades is not an appropriate nor ethical response.

It's not me who needs to "grow up" or "get a life". No, it's time for this bulletin board to get serious about a company which is valued currently at circa £217m, I repeat £217m. That is not a microcap valuation. That is a serious valuation requiring serious attention. You, Blackadder2708, may not be prepared or even interested in undertaking the serious research and analysis required to inform yourself about the facts of the 88E investment case....and that's fine. But attempting to bully or intimidate posters who *are* prepared to do the work is a truly horrible way to behave. Me headmasterly? Fact check me, I challenge you. But before you do so, maybe get off your *** and fact check the prolific posters on here who are playing you for a mug. And your response is to castigate one of the people bringing this dishonest and highly unethical behaviour into the light. The world's upside down!

13:36
Hi moda - same question to you please. What assets are you hanging around for?

88E's mkt cap is circa £217m. The inference from the question you posed to Spinefx strongly suggested you were "hanging around". That's got to be the correct inference otherwise you'd be guilty of hypocrisy, which I'm sure you're not. So then, if you're "hanging around" by continuing to invest in 88E, what assets interest you and what value to you ascribe to each of them? $ or £ value is fine.

I'll make it even easier if you wish? Just ascribe a percentage value of the current mkt cap to each of the three main project locations? All logic and manners dictate that for you to ask such a question of Spinefx, you yourself must have an answer in mind for your own question. Great stuff, look forward to engaging with you once you post your answer. Thanks moda.

16:48
Tell you what, moda, I'm a reasonable man. I'll stop "behaving like a headmaster" when someone else takes responsibility for uncovering the *facts* of the 88E investment case as it pertains to the Central Blocks. I know of no other way, with the information currently available, of reaching a conclusion or assessing the valuation unless using comparative analysis and isolating the asset from within the portfolio of 88E's other assets.

Being blunt, moda, there is an extremely good reason why Brom, Ddraig, jefhobbit et al haven't answered this most simple of questions. If they were to do so, it would see them a) admitting 88E is valued miles and miles ahead of its fundamentals and b) they've been pulling the wool over your eyes, and the eyes of so many others on this thread as they take advantage of your collective loyalty to facilitate their own trading of the "peaks and troughs". I fully appreciate this is hard to read and even harder to absorb but that doesn't make it any less true, I'm afraid.

Everyone - fact check these guys yourselves. Go on then. Ask them directly why they won't answer this simple question about assets and valuation. And if they continue refusing to answer, ask them for an explanation. Or better still, ask yourself why they're not answering.

17:29
Hi redirons - let me assist you because I fear you've got things back to front. Usually in life it's the bad guys who take advantage of the kindness and openness of other human beings who are lambasted.

"Here here - welcome back Brom and I’m sure you’re too wise to keep on avoiding answering the simple and standard question posed about 88E's three main project locations and what proportion of the current mkt cap you ascribe to each location. Even before your recent absence a few shareholders were voicing concern about some of the more prolific posters on this thread (and there are none more prolific than you, Brom, you legend) pulling the wool over our eyes in order to facilitate their trading activities. Please don't get drawn in to replying to those who have no interest in facts and ethics. Please only reply to honest shareholders like me who would be gutted if after >25k posts you turned out to be a master manipulator who has traded the peaks and troughs whilst encouraging loyalty in others based on a valuation you know to be running miles and miles ahead of the industry-accepted fundamentals. Hope ur well."

There you go, redirons, and you're welcome.

Hi moda - the lse moderators are deleting your external links. I'm sure you're capable of copying'n'pasting the actual content from other sources which you wish the other folk to read? C'mon, there must be some NPV calculations for Umiat/Peregrine kicking around? No? What about Yukon? No? Then there *must* be an NPV model overlaid with the industry standard risked/unrisked methodology for Icewine? Your new target audience will, I promise you, be delighted to help you with your calculations. Just give them the raw data and they'll do the rest.

Or perhaps just come clean and share with the readers of this thread your understanding that 88E is running miles ahead of its fundamentals but that you're happy to trade the sentiment trade, with all the energy for sentiment coming from the bizarre, but nonetheless welcome, attention 88E is receiving from the US OTC retail crowd?

Up to you? Keep up the pretence or just admit what those of us who have done the work know to be the *facts* of the 88E investment case.

Hi moda - I suspect you'll see your links to other websites deleted. I think your best bet might be to copy'n'paste the passages you wish the readers to focus on? Keep going please.

Hi Brom - thanks for the link. Still waiting for that answer to the percentage of 88E's current mkt cap ascribed to each of the three main project locations. Really hoping you've had some free time to come up with three percentage numbers. Dead easy, surely?

14:57
Full time investor, yes, yes.

13:55
PS Delighted to award my second "recommend" of the day to your suggestion, Ddraig. That said, still waiting for you to provide *this* thread with *your* research and analysis of the percentage of today's 88E market cap ascribed to each of the three main project locations, being Peregrine/Umiat, Icewine and Yukon? Cat got your tongue? Or do you know fine well and refuse to be honest with the folk who have read your content for months and who, sadly, elect to believe in your honesty and ethics when your conduct has in fact been exactly the opposite.

13:55
Superb suggestion, Ddraig! Yes, please do so, moda. That way you'll hopefully attract far more knowledgeable posters such as Telemachus to provide a geological, volumetric and financial model for the 88E assets.

When that happens, moda, I fear you'll not be too welcome on this thread any longer but at least you'll have the comfort of knowing you were a vital cog in the wheel which saw off the social media "influencers" who are taking advantage of those who do not yet possess the capacity or knowledge to debunk all the lies, dishonesty and obfuscation which, sadly, has taken root on the 88E public forums.

You'll also have my heartfelt thanks for doing so, moda, but Ddraig might suggest you go looking for a ****. I'm not going to quote Ddraig's exhortation for someone to commit suicide but we all know he's capable of it because he did so right here on this very thread. And still folk support him.......weird, isn't it, moda?

Anyhoo, look forward to you educating the northern neighbour's shareholders about Umiat, Merlin, Harrier, Yukon and the Western Blocks. Unfortunately I can't guarantee the other fundamental investors over there will value the non-Central Blocks assets of 88E as generously as I did. Remember I got to circa $100m for those assets? Might leave 88E looking waaaayyyyy too expensive or the northern neighbour looking waaaayyyy too cheap? Either which way, delighted to have you helping out. Great stuff.

12:54

PS - I just ticked the "recommend" button on your post, moda. Great stuff.

12:54
Hi Moda - excellent news, that would be awesome. Thanks so much.

How come? The two companies share a geological asset at Talitha. Both management teams agree on that front. With moda now volunteering to provide the PANR shareholders with all the fundamental facts of Yukon, Peregrine, Umiat, Western Blocks this will allow all investors in both companies to isolate 88E's Central Blocks as a distinct asset.

moda will shortly be receiving proof of the huge difference in the approach of each set of shareholders when it comes to analysis and valuation techniques. And there's something else which will surprise him too......the honesty and outright rejection by those with a professional background in finance and/or the O&G sector of those who attempt to hoodwink less sophisticated investors in order to execute their trading strategies.

Bring. It. On. Moda. :)

Thu 21:58 and today @ 9:23

Hi moda,

1) Totally agree with your share selling point. You likely already knew that because nowhere in any of my posts do I state a shareholder of any listed company is not entitled to sell (unless subject to contractual lock in arrangements, etc). You're deliberately making a rebuttal point that seeks to shut me down but which has never been at issue. What *has* been at issue is the dishonesty and obfuscation of too many commentator/influencers who know fine well the real picture. They are playing the less informed and, yes, less confrontational 88E shareholders for mugs. And the sad thing is a couple of them came out and admitted it on this very thread (Brom and jefhobbit) and instead of rounding on them, you and most others are giving both barrels to those of us who have done the work and can prove it.

2) Your claim about the northern neighbour's bulletin boards is codswallop. If you, moda, had appeared on that thread and asked a simple fundamental question such as the one I posed here about the percentage of mkt cap ascribed to each of the three main locations you would have had fundamental investors like me respond within minutes with evidence-based answers. For goodness sake man, we publish full NPV risk/unrisked models for people to debate and then plug in their own variables if they so choose. The threads are chalk and cheese and you know it.
3) Thanks very much for the Dunleavy links, very useful indeed. Sounds like he and Murkowski are getting more organised and visible in support of the resource sector in Alaska. Good stuff.

14:45 and 17:32
Oh, you old rogue, jefhobbit. You and Ddraig know very well the question I have posed for at least the last month or so. Not one person on this thread has replied to what is a perfectly fair, reasonable and oft-posed question in the world of asset valuations.

You, Ddraig, Brom and a few other regular posters were asked to provide readers with your analysis or understanding of the percentage of 88E's mkt cap which you ascribe to each of the three main project locations. There's been no response whatsoever. And that's got me curious, here's why.

It's left me with a couple of possible solutions to this puzzling silence. The question is one posed by people all over the planet when valuing tangible assets so we know the question is totally standard, totally reasonable. On the one hand it could be that prolific posters such as you, Brom, Ddraig a) do not understand the facts of the 88E investment case sufficiently to provide the thread with the answer to what is an extremely simple, run-of-the-mill type question posed for centuries to the owners of a tangible asset or b) *do fully comprehend the facts of the investment case* but because they know providing an honest answer would massively undermine the 88E narrative disseminated on social media, opt instead to say nothing. No reply, no debate, no engagement on the facts behind the question.

And here's the thing folks.....these same posters want you to believe everything else they post is factual, everything else they post is honest. Does that really stack up? When at least two of the most prolific, Brom and jefhobbit, have admitted publicly to trading the peaks and troughs? These traders are taking the rest of you for mugs. It is your loyalty to the company, a loyalty they encourage at every step, which they rely on to make their trading profits, all the while aware the stock is valued waaaayyyyyy above its fundamentals.

Jefhobbit - your blatant dishonesty and obfuscation is all part of your strategy to take advantage of the loyalty of other shareholders so you can profit from those very same peaks and troughs. You're an unethical disgrace. Naturally I'll withdraw my accusation and apologise if you provide this thread with your NPV risked/unrisked financial model using P50 estimates as per industry norms. It's a fair request. It's how analysts and the buyside arrive at a fair valuation. For someone with such strong views, such a prolific poster, one who regularly tryies to intimidate and see off those who wish to engage in a discussion of the facts of the investment case.....for a man like that, anyone who behaves like that must surely have a fair value model otherwise.......da, da, daaaaahhhh.......he might be all hot air and bluster and is taking advantage of the loyalty and open nature of those 88E shareholders who read this thread. Still, I'm sure the model is winging its way to us right now, maybe overnight. C'mon, jefhobbit, I believe in you. Or is it crickets once

14:58
Hi GS,
1) Blood pressure doing just dandy, thanks. I don't see how my health is any concern of yours though? Your health is none of my business so I'll thank you not to comment on mine.
2) Easiest and laziest reply known to man. Allege the messenger carrying bad news or correcting you on matters of fact requires a straitjacket (note correct spelling, GS). Bravo, GS, bravo! It is deeply inappropriate to comment on the internet about anyone's sanity or mental health. I'm not saying you're as bad as Ddraig (who urged another poster to find a rope to hang himself) but there's just no excuse for it, especially these days. You really must try to do better, GS.
3) No-one is expecting any PANR shareholder to pay off GB's debt. If you've had a begging email on the subject I'm afraid it likely came from Nigeria or Russia. Best just to delete those types of emails.
4) Farallon are as entitled to sell their shares as you or I. The lock in period ended in January this year and Farallon obeyed the terms of the agreement to the letter. Farallon are not "ruining PANR's SP". They're certainly providing plenty of liquidity but they're not ruining it. Were they "ruining" PANR's SP when they sold stock at 29p earlier this year or was that a massive opportunity for some investors to load up in an opportunistic manner? Just depends how you look at it. I don't follow your logic about FO v's equity finance. If a farm in partner offered $100m for 10% of PANR's asset base, how does the SP affect that potential partner's decision to make that offer? I'm not saying that offer is on the table but I am saying that you or I don't have the foggiest what is being negotiated between PANR and interested farm in parties so I fail to see how Farallon's recent selling now guarantees equity financing v's a F/O? Not saying it won't happen but I don't see the *now guaranteed* logical progression.
5) As previously stated, your personal health is none of my business.
6) The remainder is all personal stuff which is none of my business or inappropriate commentary on an anonymous poster's health and/or character whom you don't know nor have ever met. Try to do better.
7) Your original post about patience amongst other matters was full of errors and inconsistencies. That you fail to see it for the intellectual response it was is a GS problem, not a scot126 problem.
8) I guess you have answered one question which I have seen debated on many bulletin boards. Many, many folk state that the content of other anonymous posters has no effect whatsoever on the actions of others when it comes to buying/selling/holding. Good stuff.

8:27
Aye, looks like that one hurt. Too bad. Rather than lash put at the messenger, maybe have a think about the hypocrisy and Ittan of inconsistencies throughout your posts. Before you hit that"post message" button, have a final read of it and accept that your content will be posted on a public bulletin board and will be consumed by people making financial decisions. With that activity comes a duty of seriousness and accuracy. I contend your posts did not meet that mark and when you were corrected or your inconsistencies were highlighted you opted to fight and double down as opposed to taking the corrections on board.

You have your wilfully inaccurate approach to posting and I have my more blunt approach. It appears you're content with your approach, as I am with mine.

As for new moniker and all that baloney? Not me, GS. I struggle remembering how to log in with one username and password vermin multiple accounts. Nope, you'll have to put up with scot126 as long as I'm continuing to post content, I'm afraid. That's an opinion from you and a factual answer back from me.

13:19
No, Pete or associate, you haven't. How many IERs have been commissioned by PANR since the merger with GB? Superficial drivel.

8:02
Still no answer after 6 weeks, jefhobbit, since you were asked to provide readers with your analysis or understanding of the percentage of our southern neighbour's mkt cap which you ascribe to each of the three main project locations. Cat got your tongue? No chance. You've already admitted in writing that you trade the peaks and troughs. Your blatant dishonesty and obfuscation on the other thread is all part of your strategy to take advantage of the loyalty of other shareholders so you can profit from those very same peaks and troughs. You're an unethical disgrace.