Member Info for Scot126

That's deeply intellectually flawed and wholly inconsistent with the facts, rfarfa. For weeks now I've posed questions to prolific posters who know the answers fine well. And not a peep out of you. You're more tangled up than a New York pretzel.

Ok then, rfarfa. Fast forward to me posting the questions. Are you going to examine them forensically and get together with your fellow shareholders to press the chairman for answers or are you just going to throw your toys out of the pram as per 16:12 indicates? Can you not understand why your posting history and completely biased stance towards me/cbaron/olderwiser/rabito79 v's the prolific posters does not give me any confidence whatsoever?

The lack of engagement from the more polite end of the 88E shareholder spectrum has surprised and disappointed me. if our positions were swapped, I'd want to make damn sure, from someone who if nothing else is obviously experienced in the stockmarket, the questions were posed and given a right good examination.

Metaphorically sitting on the ground with your fingers in your ears is completely inappropriate for equity investors, unless you enjoy losing money of course.

Thu 21:51
Hi Villa01 – I note your post dated as above.

I typed out what I considered a thoughtful and courteous response to your post. I was just about to publish the response when I had a quick scan through your posting history. Turns out you’re not quite the objective, sincere and equitable fella you portrayed in Thursday evening’s post.

So, as I consider how best to reply to you (and your questions are pointed and good fwiw), I’ve got some questions for you.
I didn’t much like the post about Hampshire constabulary and fraud, Villa01. This is not a subject for sarcasm or to win a debating point with another anonymous poster on a bulletin board. 88E has a market cap of c.£200m. *If*, and I repeat a thousand times “IF”, there was indeed fraudulent conduct, that’s a load of shareholder value potentially going in a puff of smoke.

Here’s what I have to say. I *do* have concerns about 88E’s activities in 2021. I have questions which I would imagine will be of interest to UK and Aussie shareholders. NB. They are questions, *not* accusations. If I do decide to share them with you and everyone else on this public bulletin board, what are you and your fellow shareholders going to do about it? If the questions appear reasonable and fair, rooted in logical thinking and not just emotional swipes, will you and your fellow posters commit to: collating the questions; communicating them to the 88E Chairman; requesting a written response from the Chairman complete with his permission to publish his answers on this bulletin board? Let's start with the 14 people who "recommended" your post of Thursday evening, eh?

Or are you (+14) going to throw your collective toys out the pram like a toddler and state that anyone who has anything negative to say about 88E and its valuation *must therefore* be untruthful/a troll/a paid deramper/mentally ill or any of the other stuff levelled at me, Rabito79, cbaron, olderwiser, etc?

IMHO, Villa01, you (+14) *need* to accept intellectually and emotionally that just because someone has something negative to say about one of your investments does *not* mean that they are factually incorrect or that they don’t have a fair point.
If you undertake to read my questions with an open mind and then vow to communicate, along with +14 others, those questions to the Chairman then I will commit to providing you with the questions I have. What say you?

Great to see Erik Opstad's photo on a story with PANR as the headline! [Erik is the Operations GM for 88E fyi.]

hTTps://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/384931868.shtml

17:41, 18:18 and 18:44

Just checked the 88E website. 88E appears to be subject to the obligations described in AIM Rule 26. As such, will we have to wait until 22/11/21 for the Top Shareholders Report? FWIW I know what I would do if I had a reasonable sum invested in 88E. I'd investigate whether I could purchase the shareholder list from the registry (I did so many times during my broking career in Oz) and, providing that was still an available option, I'd buy that list to examine Dave Wall's holding and APDC's holding (if indeed APDC's holding isn't already zero). Wonder what Katie in NJ would make of that? Do none of you UK and Aussie shareholders not have the faintest inkling that something's not quite right here?

Poster with >25k posts, posters who are able to quote/refer to the historical words and actions of Great Bear personnel from a decade ago, posters who go suspiciously quiet whenever standard factual questions are posed to them directly, attempts to intimidate posters from continuing to publish comments, APDC sells stock in the spike, Merlin-1 budget missed by >$16m (!!!!!), APDC contractors = related party transaction?, no flow test at Merlin-2 planned with no explanation, no replies to shareholders' questions from the company, continued publication and highlighting of Pmean guidance where P50 would be far more accurate and appropriate......and on, and on.

Simple example? We continue to read about the 1.6bbo discovery at Merlin, correct? Using the CoS figures FROM THE COMPANY ITSELF, the probability of achieving that figure is <1%. How many readers of this thread can honestly say they already knew that?

17:46

Incorrect, Redirons. If the thread pressures Brom to answer my questions, I give you (and all other users of this thread) my word I will deal with complete seriousness the figures or answers he provides. Contrary to what you believe, I am not here to waste my time nor to be paid in some boiler room scam.

What's it to be Brom? I've noticed a couple of previously quieter posters suggest ways of addressing what are genuine and completely standard questions for an E&P stock. Does anybody truly believe the author of >25k posts on 88E is incapable of answering these standard investment questions? He's been happy enough to provide the thread with his knowledge and opinions for years on all manner of subjects, providing they're positive about 88E of course!!

Looking forward to your answers, Brom.

17:41 and 18:18

FORD707 is quite right, see the relevant AIM Rule below. *However*, I do *not* know if the Aussie Rules (geddit?) supersede the UK Rules in the case where the ASX is the home exchange? Perhaps another question to be emailed to Ashley if someone would be so kind?

".....the number of AIM securities in issue (noting any held as treasury shares) and,
insofar as it is aware, the percentage of AIM securities that is not in public hands
together with the identity and percentage holdings of its significant shareholders.
This information should be updated at least every 6 months and the website should
include the date on which this information was last updated;"

14:40
Goldstinger,

1) Is your name Brom?

2) "....I have little to no time to remotely pretend that I have analyst skills." That's a direct quote from you so, no, I'm not happy now.

3) "It's in my head." C'mon, seriously? My question was 100% serious. It was not and never has been a trick question. I don't ask it because I already know the answer, I genuinely don't know the answer. None of that stuff. Kindly treat the question with the respect and seriousness with which it was written. You're treating as a joke, as an annoyance to be flicked away a question which seeks to justify or challenge two market caps measured in the hundreds of millions of pounds. To me, that's not an annoyance to be dealt with, rather it's a core question for investors.

4) Your flow test answer doesn't make sense IMH*O*. I don't understand. What is the point of investing shareholders' funds to drill a well (which can only be accessed during a defined drilling season) and to limit the data collection *even if logs supported the decision to flow test*? For the well to be a value add operation for shareholders, does logic and sector experience not suggest that drilling and logging only leaves the job part completed and thus frustrates markedly any effort to add the maximum value to the company's investment case? Does anyone else have an alternative explanation? Ought not 88E shareholders be informed of management's thinking on this crucial question?

Blackadder2708 - you're experienced in the field, correct? Can you provide the thread with an answer to this please? If you were a contractor presented with such a plan for the season at Merlin-2, would you not think it most odd that no flow test was planned even if the logs supported same? 100% serious question.

11:55 and then 14:17

Ok then Brom, you want to answer a single question, here it is. Attention at the back?! Everyone else following this exchange?

What percentage of the current mkt cap, or more simply what percentage of the whole do you ascribe to each of the three main asset locations, those being Yukon, Umiat/Peregrine and Icewine?

In order to answer this *SINGLE*, clear and concise question Brom needs to type out three numbers, three percentage signs and the names of the three main project locations of 88E. Hardly an essay?

I look forward to your response, Brom. To the other users of this thread - I've done as you requested. It's now in Brom's court. Don't let him off the hook!

13:43
Redirons - lol, you've got to be kidding us?! Are you seriously asking readers of this bulletin board to believe that I'm some kind of boiler room deramper living in Thailand who is paid by the response I generate? Lololol. I may be many things, Redirons, but that's not one of them, lolololol.

Here's the thing, Redirons. just treat my posts as you read them. I am absolutely useless at the whole psychological bullsh^t which I observe traders employ on a daily basis to encourage volatility in various stocks. I really am a plain, vanilla fundamental investor. No more, no less. I fully appreciate you may not *like* the facts I post on this thread but that doesn't make them any less accurate or honest. I fully appreciate you may not *like* the challenges I post on this thread but that doesn't make them any less legitimate and pertinent in the context of the 88E investment case.

For the record, Brom isn't a coward. He has made a strategic decision not to engage with me because in so doing he knows fine well the house of cards he's helped to create around the 88E narrative will come crashing down. You and folk who think like you are not cowards or morons, not at all. You're standing there with your fingers in your ears repeating a cult-like chant about Conoco and 88E when folk like Brom are taking advantage of shareholders who fail to understand, as they surely do, that the 88E SP would be nowhere near current levels if it wasn't for the US OTC retail punters and the attendant social media 'influencers'.

If you believe not engaging with me on matters of fact is doing anything other than *increasing* the risk that the fundamentals will overtake your understanding of the 88E investment case, then that's your call. Attempting to intimidate me or others who challenge the 88E narrative is not going to work. Personally, I wouldn't bother wasting your time but you do you.

Once again, and for the record, I am not some sort of paid deramper as alleged by Redirons. Redirons - I invite you directly to withdraw the accusation. It's a baseless accusation; you have precisely zero evidence to support your allegation; it's not true and it's not how serious investors engage with each other when examining an investment proposition.

11:55
C'mon chrisev1, that's a complete cop out and is an intellectually flawed argument. There have been countless occasions to debate *individually* the 'percentage of the mkt cap ascribed to each asset location' or 'why is there no flow test planned for Merlin-2?' or 'Dave Wall didn't buy 120m shares in the market when he left 88E, they were "performance rights" granted to him by the company' or myriad other single issue topics.

I'd have some sympathy with your point, chrisev1, if it was factual. But it isn't, so I don't. Here's a more solid idea, chrisev1.....you start challenging the prolific posters to actually respond to these legitimate questions (individually if they so wish!) and I'll reply in kind. Ok?

PS Not one of the regular posters or even infrequent posters has torn strips off Ddraig today for yet another of his posts where he comments on another human being's mental health. This horrendous person has received requests to cease posting in such a manner. He even urged another poster with whom he disagreed to go look for a rope to commit suicide. The readers of this thread should be disgusted by his conduct and ought to be writing to the lse moderators to have him sanctioned. Evidence is now becoming very clear that such content on social media is now considered very dangerous by medical professionals and yet this person remains on the thread. Reaper007 - it's crystal clear you're a good person from the way you behave on this bulletin board. Not a word from you and those like you about Ddraig????? We've got to be better than that, surely?

09:31
C'mon Eileen - you must realise by now that all that matters in the end is maths and facts.

I put it to you that it's the prolific posters who are acting without class. They're the ones ducking the pertinent questions and pulling the wool over fellow investors' eyes. No need to shoot the messenger, Eileen. Far better to get the facts, the truth, and take it from there.

Hi Brom - what with your 25,252 posts on 88E and your relationship with the company, why don't you just tell us the answer directly? Have the Merlin-1 contractors allotted shares in the Spring sold them? Did Dave Wall buy 120m shares in the market once he had left the employment of 88E? Does Dave Wall still own 240m shares today?

Oh, and whilst you're at it, why is there no information about flow testing Merlin-2 should the logs indicate it was appropriate to do so?

TIA

08:53
Hi flexmw - Snap! I've been keeping an eye on that too. Hmmm, it wouldn't be because it would confirm the Merlin-1 contractors and Dave Wall had sold their stock earlier this year, would it? Nah, must be a temporary oversight. Don't worry, I'm pretty sure a few shareholders will contact the company to have them update the Capital Structure because it would be incredibly sneaky to attempt to pull the wool over investor's eyes, wouldn't it?Transparency and all that.....

8:33
Villa01 - a few thoughts on the YouTube video.

1) Ashley Gilbert - most handsome fella.

2) With planning of Merlin-2 so far advanced, why was there no mention whatsoever of conducting a flow test should logs indicate it appropriate? I've asked around and not one person has come back with an explanation except a lack of funds or an inability to arrange for permission to carry out a flow test from the regulator. Anyone out there have an alternative explanation?

3) The run through of the slides was grand, always love the sight of fluoresence in the morning....but something still feels odd. The former partners in Peregrine, ultra-experienced O&G guys on the Slope, value Peregrine at a mere $28m. "Ah, but they kept their exposure via all the 88E shares allotted to them as payment for services, didn't they?" Err, no they didn't. They sold that stock into the Spring share price spike, just like Brom and jefhobbit. It's most peculiar, a rum old situation.

So to answer your question directly, Villa01, still far more questions than answers.

Wed 22:40

Hi Reaper007 - just checking something. Did you realise I was responding to disgraceful and baseless accusations levelled by joghobbit on Monday 11:35 and Mon 10:51 who in turn was following on from GS's g0bbledyg00k post about "hedging" (doesn't look like GS knows what hedging is??? Needs to watch Wolf of Wall Street a few more times) and me acting unethically.

So, Reaper007, if you didn't know I was responding to some disgraceful and filth-ridden posts by jefhobbit and GS, now you do. If you *did* know I was responding to them, how else should I have responded? Surely it is GS and jefbobbit who have submitted the "unfortunate post(s)"????

(continued from immediately below)

9) Pretty much all E&Ps globally rely for funding on farm outs and/or their shareholders. Fact.

10) Fine, you don’t rate amateur valuations. Fine, we get it. That doesn’t mean you can wage a war against posters who seek to rely only on questions of established *fact* and who then apply those facts to globally-accepted valuation techniques which have been applied by equity markets for decades. That’s just a ridiculous approach, completely childish.

You are not going to intimidate me from posting. Be under no illusion about that. *You*, GS, may have no time for facts and analysis but a) other posters/shareholders do and b) plus far more importantly, when all is said and done the market only cares about facts and maths. It doesn’t give two hoots about some anonymous guy called Goldstinger on a bulletin board because he’s just “having a punt, a bit of a gamble”. Sure, it's 100% your choice what you do with your money, and if you don’t wish to research the fundamentals, that’s your call.

The market will move ahead regardless of what GS and his punting money believe or desire.

11) Opinions are fine, brilliant, to be encouraged, no worries whatsoever. The problem arises when posters a) dress up opinions as established facts and b) when they lie or obfuscate to manipulate those who are less experienced, less educated about investing/trading small cap E&P stocks. /ends

(continued from immediately below)

4)I don’t do the whole “spurious information” thing. I don’t need to, I wasn’t trained that way, my sense of honour and ethics wouldn’t allow me to behave that way….plus that would be intellectually lazy and would almost inevitably harm my own financial interests in the long run. Nope, no interest in that nonsense at this end.

5) The irony about sharing the fruits of your research is that if anyone on this bulletin board did actually engage with me on the fundamentals and provided me with the percentage of the current 88E mkt cap ascribed to each of the asset locations, I could then work with them (and all other readers of the thread) to walk through the comparative analysis, at which point everyone would be free to act on the conclusions of the comparative analysis, or not. What’s everyone so scared of? That UK and Aussie shareholders will understand the fair value of 88E before the US OTC hordes? So what?

6) Fine, I get it, caveat emptor. Quite right too. But in the adult world, this is how valuations are tested in the stockmarket, GS. Fact. Someone thinks something is awry and challenges the consensus view. The holders of the consensus view offer a defence and the debate begins. If shareholders just stay loyal to a bunch of opportunistic and prolific posters (>25k for goodness sake!) and choose to bury their collective heads in the sand, that’s fine. But what if by doing a little work and background reading, you end up saving yourself a small (or large?) fortune by acting before the fundamentals catch up with the SP?

7) No, GS, they both most definitely ***don’t*** have “lots of oil”. The northern neighbour has a contingent resource of 1.9bbo and 88E has reserves of 100mmbo. The northern neighbours has formally guided figure of 16bbo OIP and 88E has what? What OIP does 88E have, GS? What's 88E's P50 TRR guidance?

8) Aye, they have different styles alright. I refer you to my earlier answer about sentiment/emotions v’s fundamentals. You can add “style” to the left hand side of that particular dispute.

Wed 14:16
Goldstinger – I’ll try to answer your points in turn.

1) I’ve worked in stockbroking/investment banking since 1994 so I don’t need to dream. I recognise fully not everyone involved with 88E has that background but it is what it is and I can’t change my profession.

2) Hmmmm, *I* don’t think 88E will be bought out, certainly not for a number of years. The development of Yukon is years and billions of dollars away IMHO. Even if Umiat/Peregrine is dripping with oil (which I do not believe is the case reading the currently available information), Willow is >5 years and $8bn away from producing its first oil and Peregrine is 15-20 miles south of Willow, Umiat further south still.

The Central Blocks certainly hold some interest potentially and may have some value in the future, depending on the success or otherwise of the northern neighbour. Until the reservoirs at Talitha and Theta West are properly delineated and proven up, 88E’s Central Blocks will be the distant cousin waiting for hints and tips from the family matriarch. Horrible analogy (lol) but when the northern neighbour has spent >$250m on 3D seismic and drilling over the last decade and 88E hasn’t, that’s what happens.

3) We don’t have sufficient information to calculate 88E’s NAV. However I contend with a very high degree of confidence that the NPV per barrel of contingent oil in the ground for 88E will be markedly below that of the northern neighbour. Why am I so sure? It’s honestly really, really simple. Location.

If both companies possessed the exact same volume of oil, at the exact same depth, with the exact same reservoir characteristics, the northern neighbour’s NPV per barrel would still be far higher because the infrastructure construction required to produce commercial oil is going to be a fraction of that required by all other new projects on the Slope (due to TAPS and Dalton Highway intersecting the acreage). QED the capex required will be far lower and it will take less time to deliver first production and cashflow. The location is what it is. Was it chosen by accident or design? Doesn’t matter now. The NPV per barrel calculations are now purely a question of maths.

19:09
Hi Turnstone,

Thank you for your reply. I understand what you mean about sentiment driving AIM, of course I do. However, despite the critics’ claims, AIM is not a casino and mkt caps have *got* to have a relationship with the fundamentals at some point in their existence. I know this is true because I’ve worked on hundreds of AIM stocks over the last 20 years when working in investment banking/stockbroking.

You may earnestly believe you cannot assign a value for a share but I do. It’s not always correct, and *even if it is correct* the timing might be waaaayyyy too early but eventually, either sooner or later, the market forces the fundamentals of the investment case to the front’n’centre. Occasionally there’ll be an Autonomy which escapes the market’s beady eye during its history as a listed company *and* when it is the subject of a change of ownership – but those occasions are thankfully exceptionally rare.

There’s a couple of accepted valuation methods used by E&P equity analysts the world over, and they’ve been applied for decades. The main reason for this is that a barrel of oil can be bought or sold anywhere on the planet - more or less, but you catch my drift. The added good news in the case of 88E and its southern neighbour is that comparative analysis is fully and righteously applicable to these two stocks. The reason for that? Because both companies have admitted that they share an asset. Simple as that.

You may not believe comparative analysis is applicable and that’s fine, Turnstone. The thing is, the market doesn’t give a monkey's about what you think. If you honestly believe there aren’t institutions, sellside analysts, sector corporate analysts, experienced shareholders who have worked on financial models for both stocks, you are being incredibly naïve. No matter how many posters on this bulletin board bleat, gnash their teeth and invite other posters to commit suicide (Ddraig did that, truly unforgivable behaviour and, quite inexplicably, he *still* receives support on this thread?), that will *not* stop the relentless progress of the fundamentals. It’s just the way that capitalism and stockmarkets work, you see.

Another thing to ponder. The fundamentals eventually overpower sentiment and emotions. In the end, the maths don’t lie.
Unlike you, it has been my experience that bulletin boards can and do affect SPs and influence investment decisions. I’ll be blunt. I’d prefer they didn’t, but in my estimation they do.

Delighted to read that you’re old *and* chilled. I’m neither and that’s fine with me at time of writing. Oh, and for the record, how or where you choose to invest your cash is none of my business. Good luck with your investments, Turnstone.

13:30
HI Turnstone - thanks for your genuine post below. To answer your questions directly, after I met Dave Wall a couple of years ago I became a shareholder, albeit relatively briefly. I understand what you are describing when you say my posts have contributed to a feeling of doom for you. I get it. The thing is, I haven't done anything wrong. It's the "market" which has assigned a valuation to 88E which is miles and miles ahead of the fundamentals, not me. And where has the vast majority of the firepower >1p come from to propel 88E to these ridiculous heights (and higher in the Spring)? From a veritable army of uneducated, unsophisticated, inexperienced punters consuming social media hype after the bizarre Gamestop-related "attack on Wall St"!

Why don't you ask Brom and jefbobbit if they sold into that social media frenzy? Both have admitted to it so they likely did, agreed? Why did they sell? Because they knew and continue to know fine well the data collected *thus far* by 88E does *not* justify the current mkt cap on all recognised fundamental valuation metrics. Trade the speculative energy surrounding the stock? Fine, knock yourself and themselves out.....but don't kid the bulletin board that you're doing anything but trading that wave of ill-informed punting emanating mostly from the US.

Have you read the content or watched the videos of the social media influencers who hold themselves out as 88E experts and the 'source of all the DD you could wish for'? It's absolute gibberish, and that's being kind. It makes you cringe. For the record, I still can't decide if the US PR campaign was organised professionally or was the result of a whole bunch of digital coincidences. I'm genuinely fascinated about the answer to that question but, equally, I completely accept it doesn't really matter now.

Go on then, where would the SP be if the US OTC punters hadn't chanced upon 88E? Whatever number you come up with, subtract it from the closing SP today and overlay your investment/shareholding. That's the hard cash at risk because that amount is supported *solely* by speculation engendered and encouraged by nefarious or ludicrously naïve (doesn't matter which, effect is still the same tbh) social media influencers in the US, plus a few in the UK and Oz.

I appreciate it appears I am baiting the prolific posters here. How can I bait anonymous usernames? It's not personal, it's business, right? It's just maths and facts for me, Turnstone....no more, no less. Two companies share an asset. Both BoDs admit it. My investment process incorporates comparative analysis - always has, for years and years. These prolific posters are lying. They're obfuscating. They're taking advantage of the trusting nature of others. Don't believe me? Challenge them yourself. The market cap of 88E is plain wrong IMHO and until one of these prolific posters steps up and justifies it to me or provides the answers to my questions, I'm going nowhere.