Member Info for Scot126

Wed 23:58 and 23:38

GS - Not particularly surprised to read your obsession with Farallon continues unabated. I trust the Alex Jones tinfoil hat is still perched on top of your noggin?

It appears no amount of factual evidence such as (i) the SoA exploration tax rebate scheme moratorium (ii) the purchase of GB's debt by Farallon from BoAML (iii) the PANR/GB merger documents (iv) testimony from original GB founders'n'funders is enough for Lanzarote's conspiracy theorist laureate.

I don't intend to indulge GS's conspiracy theories any further. It's tiresome and it hurts my head. Readers of GS's linked articles will note that Steyer's own money within Farallon doesn't invest in fossil fuels. There's no "hypocricy [sic] " there. It's no different to Schroders investing in BP for some of the pension funds they manage and electing not to do so on behalf of their ESG funds.

Farallon is HQ'd in San Francisco. This particular investment is managed outside of Farallon's US offices fyi. I can confirm this fact personally because, together with a couple of other investors, we approached Farallon to buy a line of stock earlier this year. We set up all the necessary paperwork but the trade (unfortunately) didn't go ahead. Real pity because the price was around 40p at the time!!

I'm a believer in empirical evidence. Farallon has acted entirely within the terms of the lock up agreement entered into at the time of the PANR/GB merger. They started selling stock only once that period expired in January '21. Had Farallon sought to damage PANR, derail its progress or derail the Board's strategy they could have dumped shares on the market at any time this year. Instead they have executed their trades in an objectively disciplined manner and behaved with remarkable consistency over the last 10 months. O that we had such disciplined and consistent posters on the lse bulletin board!

PS Turn your spell check back on, GS.

Nooooo, carbon. Re-read my post please. You've misinterpreted it entirely. By "no worries" I was informing you that I wasn't upset in the slightest by csw12's allegations. With that knowledge, re-read the full post and it'll make far more sense.

My point does make sense ref plagiarism. Brom and I both posted the SoA auction results TODAY (not yesterday) and because I posted EARLIER than Brom, using csw12's logic, it must mean Brom plagiarized me today. Geddit now?

Jeepers creepers.

22:05 Why indeed, Villa01. You're perhaps best posting your 22:05 content on the SN's forum?

21:30 No worries cbaron. FWIW I didn't copy/repeat/plagiarise Brom's post of yesterday evening. Using the same factless logic, Brom obviously plagiarised *me* this evening because I posted the SoA lease auction results before he did. Why do these bulletin boards attract so many people allergic to facts?! csw12 - another fantasist. Bit sad really. Hey-ho.

20:28

Hi Turnstone - the SoA DNR website will be able to provide you with a record of the prices paid for leases in prior years. I'm sure Brom will be able to point you in the right direction. If he doesn't, post your request on here. That said, please be aware that parties pay more or less per acre depending if it's right next door to an existing producing field v's 100 miles away in the middle of nowhere....also known as "Umiat" for the last 70 years.

20:28
csw12 - I have informed this "forum" repeatedly why I am here. I am here to nail down the facts of the 88E investment case in order to carry out a comparative valuation analysis of 88E and its NN. I have only posted on this forum since the date 88E management thought it would be a swell idea not only to confirm their view the two companies shared a common asset (fine, no worries in the slightest) but also (very disingenuously IMO) opted to include diagrams which gave the *false* impression to the market that the majority of the oil volume of the shared reservoirs is on the 88E side of the border. Tut, tut....because the actual answer is <10% of the volume is *perhaps* on the 88E side of the border and quite possibly a great deal less than 10%. I know it annoys the hell out of you to read this explanation, csw12. If you don't believe me, look back at my posting history on this forum and you'll see I posted once, repeat once, from 13/12/15 until 27/4/21.

All true "88E-ers" must surely think it odd that this most annoying ***and verbose*** of posters took over 5 years to become active on this forum? Do any of you think it's odd that my activity here began on that exact date? Until that date, there was no admission of a shared asset, correct? And then there was, so comparative analysis became not just useful but *essential* for the fundamental investor. Fact.

Lol, I've already told you that I didn't plagiarise or copy or repeat Brom's post of last evening. Brom and jofbobbitt both know very well that I am more than comfortable driving around the SoA DNR website myself and have done so for years. Totally up to you if you choose to believe me or not. To prove what a prize chump you are, have a look at the respective times Brom and I posted the results of the SoA lease auction today. Using your numpty logic, Brom plagiarised me today??!! Dear, dear, dear. Speaking of the lease auction, I bet you didn't even know the results were due to be published today, csw12, did you? But you'll buy a million shares because you're a punter, a sentiment player, a momentum trader.

Fact check for csw12: I have never, repeat never, posted anything on reddit. Fact. You're "really" not very good with facts, are you, csw12?

So, csw12 the Dishonourable, you are technically incapable or too cowardly to answer my fact-based questions. It's a pity but not a surprise.

Why isn't 88E planning to flow test Merlin-2 even if the logs support such an exercise?

Why have Dave Wall, APDC and Erik's contractors all sold out of 88E, or in DW's case sold >60% of his holding? What do they know that PIs in 88E don't?

Also, what activities does the Chairman of 88E consider constitute related party transactions? Has he examined the activities of Erik and his Alaskan colleagues during the 20/21 drilling season?

Do you believe, csw12, that 88E shareholders deserve a comprehensive explanation for Merlin-1 coming in at a cost of US$29m v's a budget of US$12.6m?

Dear All - looks like only 6 blocks in the whole North Slope region have been secured at auction this year. Nothing close to PANR's acreage.

https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Services/BIFAndLeaseSale

https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Documents/Leasing/SaleResults/NorthSlope/2021WF/NSA_2021_WF_Results_Map.pdf

https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Documents/Leasing/SaleResults/NorthSlope/2021WF/NSA_2021_WF_Preliminary_Summary.pdf

csw12 – Please refer back to your post of yesterday at 19:01. You’ll note I answered all your questions in turn at 19:07. Honour surely dictates your answers to my questions are now due?

“Hey Scot, how about you answer my question **first**?”

Here are those questions once again.

Why isn't 88E planning to flow test Merlin-2 even if the logs support such an exercise?

Why have Dave Wall, APDC and Erik's contractors all sold out of 88E, or in DW's case sold >60% of his holding? What do they know that PIs in 88E don't?

Also, what activities does the Chairman of 88E consider constitute related party transactions? Has he examined the activities of Erik and his Alaskan colleagues during the 20/21 drilling season?

Do you believe, csw12, that 88E shareholders deserve a comprehensive explanation for Merlin-1 coming in at a cost of US$29m v's a budget of US$12.6m?

And a fresh one for today, just for you. Do you “really” believe the fundamentals support an 88E mkt cap of £222m?
Look forward to reading your answers.

No, I "really didn't". lololol.

Dear All - please find below a link to the Alaska Dept of Natural Resources. I am ***delighted*** to note PANR appears to have secured Nordic-Calista Rig 3 and the NC crew to drill Theta West this upcoming drilling season. Many readers will recall that PANR management went on the record describing the high standard of work and professionalism displayed by Nordic-Calista at Talitha #A. This is really, really good news.

What else to make of this letter? The request for approval was received by the DNR on 1/10/21 and the DNR's letter inviting public comments was published on 1/11/21. I put it to the thread that the DNR response letter *would not have been published* if PANR did not see a crystal clear pathway to being active on the North Slope this coming drilling season. I therefore contend that not only was PANR management confident of securing funding when Jay answered the Proactive question ["Oh yes, farm out negotiations are under way and some of them are quite advanced, I must say"] *and* when the request for approval was submitted (1/10/21) but that their confidence had not diminished by 29/10/21....because the State went ahead with publicly posting the letter below inviting comments just yesterday. This really is excellent news.

https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Document/57E2C2AF132A46B5A2DAD008503BB71/2021-10-26__Great_Bear_Pantheon_LLC_Theta_West_1_Exploration_Well_Lease_Plan_of_Operations_Exploration_Phase?

19:06
Thanks for posting the link, Brom. I already had it but it was good of you to do so.

Now that I've got your attention, perhaps you would be so kind as to reply to the range of questions I have about PANR's SN?
If you head over to the SN forum, read my post timed at 19:07 and address the questions raised in the paragraph beginning, "What about some answers to some factual questions?", that would be appreciated.

Brom and all other readers will note the open, transparent sharing of the *facts* of the PANR investment case here and on other forums. I can't be the only one who notices that it's a startlingly different environment for those seeking the facts of the SN's investment case? I wonder why that is? Hmmmm, what are the SN shareholders to scared of? Not the actual facts surely......or is that exactly what they're scared of?

17:50
csw12 - I'll try to answer you're points/questions in turn.

1) Your fascination is noted.
2) Not quite a billion years but since 1994 in Oz, NYC and UK.
3) Yep.
4) I get sea sick.
5) Fascination noted again.
6) Noted but that's no business of mine.

Now then, people will have noted you haven't answered any of my questions and yet I answered all of yours.

What about some answers to some factual questions? Why isn't 88E planning to flow test Merlin-2 even if the logs support such an exercise? Why have Dave Wall, APDC and Erik's contractors all sold out of 88E, or in DW's case sold >60% of his holding? What do they know that PIs in 88E don't? Also, what activities does the Chairman of 88E consider constitute related party transactions? Has he examined the activities of Erik and his Alaskan colleagues during the 20/21 drilling season? Do you believe, csw12, that 88E shareholders deserve a comprehensive explanation for Merlin-1 coming in at a cost of US$29m v's a budget of US$12.6m?

Looking forward to your 'fascinating' response. For you, csw12, I won't hold my breath. I'd place you in the camp of gamblers and punters who don't much care about the fundamentals or the facts of the investment case. Nope, I reckon you rely on the social media generated hype for your trading strategy. That said, I will be delighted if you prove me wrong.

17:26
Wowza! APillowOfWinds - ignorance is the answer to your question.

Now then, APillowOfWinds, after that mightily impressive and educational post let's turn that detail-orientated mind of yours to equally important matters. Actually, in the context of fortunes made and lost, most would argue to *even more important matters*. What about some answers to some factual questions? Why isn't 88E planning to flow test Merlin-2 even if the logs support such an exercise? Why have Dave Wall, APDC and Erik's contractors all sold out of 88E, or in DW's case sold >60% of his holding? What do they know that PIs in 88E don't?

Also, what activities does the Chairman of 88E consider constitute related party transactions? Has he examined the activities of Erik and his Alaskan colleagues during the 20/21 drilling season? Do you believe 88E shareholders deserve a comprehensive explanation for Merlin-1 coming in at a cost of US$29m v's a budget of US$12.6m?

I have heaps more questions so don't dilly dally, the quicker you respond the quicker we'll get through my questions. You saw how quickly I replied to your question. Now it's time for you to do the same. Over to you.

Lololololol, good one, GS. It's thoughtful of you to inject some levity into readers' November afternoons, and all the way from Lanzagrotty too! Talking off all inclusive holidays, please don't overindulge on the sangria, GS, overwise you'll be tempted to post more filth on social media like you did a couple of weeks ago. It used to be folk were warned about drunk phone calls. For you the warning should be about drunken bulletin board diatribes!

Being serious for a millisecond, my first question was, "With what? 88E paper?" And that set me off into a second round of chuckles!

Listen, I "get" the whole FOMO, social media tsunami, hype it to the max, seed the bulletin boards with misinformation and disinformation a la Alex Delarge, etc, etc. Fine. People wanna do that, it's as unethical as fooock, but you do you. But if you choose to engage in that kind of activity then you simply *must* accept that your content is going to be challenged by those market participants who solely follow the *facts* of the investment case.

I contend the prolific posters here and on other social media forums know *exactly* what they're doing. They're just massively peeved that some sophisticated investors have seen through their strategy, thus endangering their planned "winter season go around again" trading plan. Tough, suck it up.

To those UK and Aussie readers of this thread who recognise they're "unsophisticated, just having a punt" please be aware of the following. Let's say the starting point of this season's ramp then dump cycle, or "pass the parcel 88E share game", begins at 1.5p or thereabouts, ok? Because of the US OTC frenzy last winter season, the starting point this time around is ***already*** way, way, way above any fundamental value. This is manifestly different from this time last year when the SP was 0.5p. If you think the Merllin-1 results have added £140m of fundamental value since last November then you're either wilfully deluding yourself and others or you don't understand how to value E&P listed companies using the empirical data available.

So unlike last year, the 88E mkt cap is already massively overvalued. Therefore the hype required to lift the mkt cap further and further above "fair value" is going to need to be even louder this coming cycle. It also means the downside will be larger because when the hype bubble pops, and it will just like last time (*see below* for explanation), the fall will not see support at 1.5p....this time it'll keep on going south.

Explanation: why will it pop? Even if Merlin-2 is amazingly successful geologically, there's no flow test so moving up to contingent resources will prove exceptionally difficult/impossible. Plus, and this is the big one, how do you value another stranded asset? 88E value Umiat at $1m, correct? Let's say Peregrine has 150mmbo.....is it worth $1.5m or $2m? Yes, that is accurate because *it is stranded*. When the US OTC folk realise that, the bubble pops. POP!

09:17
csw12 – the only elephant in the room is the mammoth-sized Theta West which I contend will be ranked somewhere between the 20th and 37th largest oilfield ever discovered on the planet.

I have already addressed your funding question on my post timed at 18:23 yesterday on the SN thread. My answer has not changed since then.

You may not buy the "gentleman’s agreement theory" but I do. I refer you to my post on this thread timed at 14:42 and to Rabito79’s post at 14:37 to give you some background information.

I don’t agree with you that a CR is the “likely short term outcome here”. I have observed over the years that Jay appears incapable (to the company’s disadvantage IMHO) of employing the artform of small cap listed company PR. [FWIW Dave Wall was an absolute maestro when MD of our SN] When he was asked a question in the recent Proactive interview about the farm out process, his reply was the very definition of straight talking: “Oh yes, farm out negotiations are under way and some of them [note plural] are quite advanced, I must say.”

I know you read my content here and the other place, csw12. However, for any readers of this thread who don’t use Alpha Delta Victor Foxtrot November here’s my ***personal*** wish for PANR. For a variety of reasons (csw12 describes one of them) my *personal* preference is for PANR to go it alone for one more winter drilling season. However it is my *opinion* that the BoD will opt for a farm out.

09:31
Hi Mindbender – FWIW I do agree existing PANR shareholders would be supportive of a raise of $50m. The trouble is that a rights issue takes an awfully long time to organise; it’s very expensive; underwriting is not generally available for small caps these days; it requires a prospectus; PANR employees <10 so management already stretched; PANR register dominated by PIs rather than instos. So that’s not going to happen in my professional opinion (having worked on multiple rights issues throughout my career).

I agree entirely with your points the BoD will be considering ref. a farm out. The good news is that Jay and Phillip Gobe have spent 80 years being on *both sides of the farm out/farm in table* so they have the experience and expertise required, IMO, to represent shareholders' interests and to negotiate the best possible terms to advance the PANR investment case.

As I have posted in the recent past, it is my earnest belief that the combined management teams of PANR/GB following the merger in January ’19 have a) added value and b) delivered on their published strategy such that they have earned shareholders’ trust. Me? I’m more than comfortable to let them get on with it. Instead of seeking to weaken their negotiating hand, I’m happy to offer my full support together with the other investors in “my” group of investors. Good stuff.

09:58
SeaHawk - I don't have big ideas about myself, I just have 27 years professional experience of the equity markets. That you have not worked out *your own conduct* imperils your financial position if you decide to sell *or* to hold highlights *your* lack of understanding of equity markets and *your* ingratitude. I was actually attempting to help you, whatever route you opted to travel. Have no fear, I will not repeat my kind gesture again.

Here are some *facts* for you, SeaHawk. There are heaps of rigs on the North Slope sitting idle currently. Yes, they have to be maintained and winterised if they're to be utilised for the upcoming seasonal drilling but the physical lack of kit is *not* an obstacle to anyone hoping to drill in the Alaskan winter season. Don't believe me? Research it yourself. Also research the delayed drilling activity by Conoco and OSH/Repsol which had been in the diary for this winter. Currently, there's actually an overcapacity if truth be told.

You are not in possession of the full facts. Neither am I for that matter but apparently I know a great deal more than you do. Let's both diarise to meet up on this forum when the contract for a rig or rigs is formally announced and we'll see who had done their research as of early November, shall we?

17:39
csw12 - a) don't know because I'm not a party to the negotiations and b) don't know because I'm not a party to the negotiations.

Now then, seeing as I have your attention too, csw12, what about some answers to some factual questions? Why isn't 88E planning to flow test Merlin-2 even if the logs support such an exercise? Why have Dave Wall, APDC and Erik's contractors all sold out of 88E, or in DW's case sold >60% of his holding? What do they know that PIs in 88E don't? Also, what activities does the Chairman of 88E consider constitute related party transactions? Has he examined the activities of Erik and his Alaskan colleagues during the 20/21 drilling season? Do you believe 88E shareholders deserve a comprehensive explanation for Merlin-1 coming in at a cost of US$29m v's a budget of US$12.6m?

Get back to me with some answers? I have plenty more questions about last drilling season so the quicker you respond the quicker we'll get through them. good stuff.

15:43
HI Brom - in your model, what cost have you assumed for the "pipeline eastwards solution" in order for Umiat/Peregrine to no longer be labelled stranded assets? TIA [presuming geological and commercial success at Peregrine of course]

Oh, and while we've got you what about some answers to some factual questions? Why isn't 88E planning to flow test Merlin-2 even if the logs support such an exercise? Why have Dave Wall, APDC and Erik's contractors all sold out of 88E, or in DW's case sold >60% of his holding? Also, what activities does the Chairman of 88E consider constitute related party transactions? Has he examined the activities of Erik and his Alaskan colleagues during the 20/21 drilling season? Does the Chairman believe that shareholders deserve a comprehensive explanation for Merlin-1 coming in at a cost of US$29m v's a budget of US$12.6m? And one just for you, Brom, a purely factual question. Have you ever communicated with Steven Gallagher, aka Alex Delarge?

14:55 Hi sittingbush - the optimum ambient temperature for building ice roads is -28 degrees Centigrade. In addition, the top 12 inches of tundra must reach -5 degrees Centigrade before construction is permitted to begin. Last year, December '20 saw the construction of the Talitha ice road begin in early Dec and it was completed by 5/1/21. Yes, they were lucky with the weather last year, but perhaps not in the way many would imagine. Unlike the 19/20 Alaskan season (when temperatures were *too low* in December '19/early January '20 to construct ice roads effectively), December '20 was far more amenable for ice road construction.

16:07 Hi Villa01 – noted and agreed.

14:58 Hi Mindbender – your assumption wasn’t overly unreasonable IMHO. That said, remember the Great Bear guys have four successful drills in their Central North Slope CVs. This is not their first rodeo and I agree heartily with one of Villa01’s points. The North Slope contractors will be aware of the *potential* scale of PANR’s multiple projects and will be exceptionally keen to earn brownie points for the mountains of future work envisaged going forward. If that means pencilling in some work “subject to funding” with a company which was comfortably able to raise the necessary funds last year in a $35-40 POO environment (fundraise was oversubscribed and increased in size fyi), then that’s what will likely be happening.

14:01 Hi SeaHawk – I suspect you're underestimating the depth of the relationships forged by GB personnel over the last decade. If you’re genuinely not reassured by the successful completion of last season’s funding and operational activities then you probably need to reduce your risk => sell your shares. Personally, I feel the combined PANR/GB management team has more than earned our trust since the merger in Jan ’19 so I remain fully supportive *and* confident in their capacity to secure funding for the anticipated winter programme.

I can see this is troubling you. A suggestion? You’ve elected to share your concerns on a public forum, fine. To continue to repeat those concerns despite receiving comprehensive responses only serves to weaken the hand *of the very management team tasked with securing the farm out*. In addition, your repeated publicly posted concerns will potentially reduce the price you receive from buyers of your shares should you decide to reduce your holding. That doesn’t seem to me to be constructive for anyone, you least of all?

To other readers – there’s no farm out until there is. None of us is a party to the negotiations. Thus we’re in the position (uncomfortable for some) of having to place our collective trust in the management of PANR. If they delivered added value in a tougher macro backdrop 12 months ago then I suggest they’re perfectly capable of delivering this November too.
Remember Jay’s words when asked about farm out negotiations? “Oh yes, farm out negotiations are under way and some of them are quite advanced, I

13:11
Hi Turnstone - I read the 41 page criminal complaint for Steven Gallagher, aka Alex Delarge on Twitter. I agree that his activities around 88E are not included in the initial criminal complaint but I'd give it a little time because US law allows for superseding counts and charges if so filed by prosecutors and approved by a Grand Jury.

Looks like Alex Delarge was up to his criminal (allegedly) neck in 88E pumping in March/April, and he wasn't the only one, was he? Have a look at that spike on the chart, will you? Woooshka!

I wonder what price Erik's contractor mates got for their placing shares when they sold during that period? Amazing that the pumpers all alighted on a small Aussie company at exactly that time. I'll certainly be following with keen interest the continuing legal jeopardy facing Steven Gallagher. Let's see what the Feds comes up with as it pertains to his activities around 88E, shall we? If he's clever, he'll be singing like a bird to earn that plea deal because it looks like they've already seized a large number of incriminatory messages from an account which he's admitted to controlling.

Eyes peeled.

12:47
Hi Seahawk - Of course I see what you're getting at. What I am happy to point out to you and anyone else sharing those same concerns is that last November the company announced the rig contract for Talitha #A 24 hours prior to settlement and commencement of share dealing of the new shares issued as a result of the cash raise during the prior week. I will be absolutely amazed if management hasn't pencilled in a similar schedule with the various contractors required to drill and test Theta West and to flow test Talitha #A.

As a further reminder, the cash arrived in PANR's bank account on or around 26/11/20 and the Talitha ice road construction began in the first 10 days of December and was completed by 5/1/21. In fact the ice road was completed sufficiently ahead of time that Talitha #A spudded earlier than planned.

When asked by Proactive how the farm out negotiations are going, CEO Jay Cheatham replied, "Oh yes, farm out negotiations are under way and some of them are quite advanced, I must say."

The company has consistently guided news on securing funding for the winter drilling programme will arrive in Q4 '21. Realistically, we've a good month, maybe 5 weeks before it's time to get antsy but news could drop any time. GLA

The GB side of PANR has designed and successfully drilled Alcor, Merak, Alkaid-1 and Talitha #A. It is my personal belief that they have earned our trust and that they will indeed secure the anticipated 21/22 drilling programme in Alaska.