Member Info for Scot126

09:32
Hi again Farmer cringsing - I'm not reading any reporting from COP26 which suggests any serious or practical limitations on the development of huge oilfields in the future, are you? As for the SP holding up fairly well, PANR is either the cheapest or second cheapest O&G stock in Canaccord's sector coverage and both Canaccord (house broker) and WH ireland assess fair value to be circa 170p, right now, today.

Using the traditional risked/unrisked E&P equity valuation method, there is no question that PPANR remains undervalued on the published fundamental facts. Some will opt to wait for further data from the anticipated winter programme, others will be happy to invest now. GLA

Thu 12:24
Hi Squirrel26 - we know from the website of the Alaskan Dept of Natural Resources that PANR management has been busy making sure all the relevant permits are in place so that they're all set to go once funding is secured and the winter drilling season begins. And of course there's the small matter of negotiating the best possible farm out deal on behalf of us shareholders. Plenty for them to be kept busy, I'm sure!

Thu 16:16
GS - and what if *every single one* of your multiple conspiracy theories is proven to be complete gibberish? What does the thread receive from you? Readers of your posts should all receive a medal of valour for withstanding the assault of your baseless gobbledygook for such an extended period of time.

Sun 16:52

Hi Blingybird - hopefully just helping with expectations in this reply to your post. Never say never, but I'd have thought it unlikely BP will be PANR's farm in partner. After 50 years operating on the North Slope, BP sold all of their assets there to Hilcorp for $5.6bn in 2019/20, including their share of TAPS. Just fyi.

Sun 17:18

Hi Pander - the intention is to drill Alkaid-2 from a pad located at the side of the Dalton Highway in the Spring, after Theta West is finished. Obviously the most elegant solution would see the Nordic-Calista Rig No.3 travel from the Theta West pad to the Alkaid-2 pad at the end of the winter season and to begin drilling straight away. Logistically that would make the most sense and would likely mean lower costs. That said, timing of the Alkaid-2 spud *may* be heavily influenced by the success/failure of Talitha #A and Theta West over the winter?

If Alkaid-2 is drilled in the Spring then it is possible PANR could produce and sell its first oil in July '22? The intention is to complete a Long Term Production Test at Alkiaid-2 for a period of circa 6 months. We may see variable flow rates within that period in order to collect as much data as possible. All things going well, after 5-6 months of the LTPT Alkaid's resource ought to be able to achieve reserve status, at least for a proportion of its recoverable resource.

The crude produced at Alkaid-2 will be trucked up to Pump Station No.1 in Deadhorse (about 15 miles I think), treated and inserted into TAPS. During one of the pre-pandemic London presentations, Bob Rosenthal estimated somewhere between 1200-1500 bopd will be trucked up to Deadhorse daily. Breakeven was guided at Alkaid at circa $37-38 per barrel but that was before the SMD-B horizon was properly understood. Personally, I expect the breakeven per barrel at Alkaid will reduce from that initial range, but let's just use it for the purposes of today's exercise? Perhaps looking at $25-30 profit per barrel x 1200 bopd => US$900k per month. I suspect I'm being conservative with those numbers but it gives some idea of the potential cashflows from the summer '22 onwards. Worth remembering that once reserves are classified at Alkaid, it is *relatively* simple to arrange debt finance off the back of those reserves.

Hope that's useful.

Sun 19:49

Hi SunZoo - yep, it's a possibility. In the August webinar Jay Cheatham confirmed they were examining farm in proposals which would see a farm in partner being involved with one asset, two assets and across all the total acreage.

Would farming out Alkaid alone raise sufficient cash to pay for the three distinct operations being envisaged over the next 8 months or so? Hmmmm, the latest management guidance on Alkaid's NPV was $800m and the POO has risen since then. Therefore, IMHO, a farm out limited to Alkaid does indeed have the *potential* to fully fund PANR's share of the three operations.

Those three anticipated activities being:
a) flow test Talitha #A
b) drill and flow test Theta West
c) drill Alkaid-2 from the roadside as a lateral production well.

GLA

Fact checking myself and correcting the post timed at 22:34! This post supersedes my post timed at 22:34. sorry to bother readers.

Yukon: Ok, we now know the General Manager of Alaska Operations, Erik Opstad, assigns an NPV to Sourdough of less than zero US dollars. Surely it cannot now be argued that Yukon is worth anything within the 88E portfolio?

Umiat: 88E BoD valued it at $1m. I'll go along with that, they know what they're doing.

Peregrine: APDC and the 88E BoD valued it at $28m plus add ons. I'll go along with that, they know what they are doing.

Yukon = US$0
Umiat = US$1m
Peregrine = US$28m
88E market cap on Friday was circa US$270m

QED Project icewine is valued at US$240m by the market. Huh, on that basis, the NN ought to have a mkt cap of c.US$2.16bn. How so? Because the NN BoD assess the vast majority of oil volume within the identified reservoirs is on the northern side of the border. I've used 90% to NN and 10% to 88E in my scenario.

So, 88E shareholders on Friday must a) disagree with their own BoD about project valuations b) not believe the guidance of the BoD of their NN c) be quite content to own shares in a company which are mathematically and objectively far more expensive on the fundamentals v's shares in their NN (I argue 88E shares are circa 7x more expensive than the NN shares) D) be content to admit that if they don't believe Icewine is worth US$240m and the NN is therefore worth US$2.16bn then there is no other explanation except that each 88E shareholder is paying tens or hundreds of millions of dollars for hot air and hype.

Fact check me? TIA

Yukon: Ok, we now know the General Manager of Alaska Operations, Erik Opstad, assigns an NPV to Sourdough of less than zero US dollars. Surely it cannot now be argued that Yukon is worth anything within the 88E portfolio.

Umiat: 88E BoD valued it at $1m. I'll go along with that, they know what they're doing.

Peregrine: APDC and the 88E BoD valued it at $14m plus add ons. I'll go along with that, they know what they are doing.

Yukon = US$0
Umiat = US$1m
Peregrine = US$14m
88E market cap on Friday was circa US$270m

QED Project icewine is valued at US$255m by the market. Huh, on that basis, the NN ought to have a mkt cap of c.US$2.3bn. How so? Because the NN BoD assess the vast majority of oil volume within the identified reservoirs is on the northern side of the border.

So, 88E shareholders on Friday must a) disagree with their own BoD about project valuations b) not believe the guidance of the BoD of their NN c) be quite content to own shares in a company which are mathematically and objectively far more expensive on the fundamentals v's shares in their NN (I argue 88E shares are circa 7x more expensive than the NN shares) D) be content to admit that if they don't believe Icewine is worth US$255m and the NN is therefore worth US$2.3bn then there is no other explanation except that each 88E shareholder is paying tens or hundreds of millions of dollars for hot air and hype.

Fact check me? TIA

Do you think 88E shareholders will receive an explanation from the Chairman why the US$12.6m Merlin-1 well came in at a total cost of US$29m, a whopping 130% above budget?

Do you think 88E shareholders will receive an explanation from the Chairman why there is no flow test planned for Merlin-2?

Do you think 88E shareholders will receive an explanation from the Chairman why the Capital Structure page on the website had to be amended within 24 hours in order to reflect a restatement of ex-MD Dave Wall's personal holding? Was Dave Wall considered a "bad leaver"? Will the Chairman outline the full extent of Dave Wall's exit package incorporating all shares, options, performance rights plus any other entitlements?

Do you think 88E shareholders will receive an explanation from the Chairman why the company intends to go ahead with drilling Merlin-2 this upcoming winter season when the decision to delay Willow by Conoco ensures Peregrine and Umiat will continue to be stranded assets for the foreseeable future?

Do you think 88E shareholders will receive an explanation from the Chairman why the General Manager of Alaska Operations values the adjacent acreage to Yukon at an NPV of less than zero dollars, thus sending out what can only be taken as formal guidance that Yukon's value within the 88E portfolio is also zero dollars?

Do you think 88E shareholders will receive an explanation from the Chairman what he considers to be a related party transaction?

Do you think 88E shareholders will receive an explanation from the Chairman about the timing of invoices from ELKO, the payments made to ELKO and the two tranches of shares issued to ELKO?

Do you think 88E shareholders will receive an explanation from the Chairman what overlap of individuals and/or companies existed between ELKO and APDC?

Do you think 88E shareholders will receive an explanation from the Chairman about Erik Opstad's personal/family/business interests and any involvement they may or may not have with APDC and/or ELKO?

Did Dave Wall or Inyati Capital or Erik Opstad or any other Mr Opstad's corporate or family interests receive any commission or other payment(s) for facilitating the share issues to ELKO and APDC in lieu of cash payments by the company?

Do you think 88E shareholders will receive an explanation from the Chairman why the 88E budget for marketing and corporate advisory services is so high v's peer groups?

Do you think 88E shareholders will receive an unequivocal answer from the Chairman about allegations the social media attention 88E received in the US was as a result of a co-ordinated PR campaign emanating from 88E employees and/or advisors?

NB These are clearly marked as questions, not allegations. They are good questions though.

(Part 2, continued from below)

Sat 17:51
Hi olderwiser – I can confirm your post is 100% accurate. I refer any readers who doubt the nextoilrush.com articles are anything other than paid advertorials to read pages 8, 18, 19, 20 of the linked pdf (NB pages of pdf, not page number of underlying document).

https://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/88E/02432903.pdf

Sat 13:42
SeaHawk – I follow the logic to your post. Perhaps readers should note that not one contributor, not one of the prolific posters has fact-checked this post nor argued against the logic of the content? Traders will ignore this post but those who consider themselves investors in 88E would do well to read it.

Sat 09:19
Hi FORD707 – “I don’t think Yukon has ever really been at the forefront of any valuation in terms of where this could go.” Indeed, FORD707, I’ll be saving this sentence for future use. FWIW, I agree entirely. Many thanks.

Fri 19:39
Hi olderwiser – IMO the standout quotation from the article was exactly the one you highlighted: “...the project has a negative net present value, or NPV. As such, Jade said, the Area F development project is “largely un-investable” for investors.” If the entrepreneur and legendary 88E share trader (Peaks and Troughs Society) Erik Opstad calculates Jade’s Sourdough acreage is worthless, then Yukon can only be considered exactly the same. Correct? Anyone disagree with Erik Opstad, the 88E General Manager of Alaska Operations? He should know, right?

Fri 15:58
moda – that article is the exact opposite of “relevant”. In the light of the Petroleum News article [ https://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/31859843.shtml ] your post and description is the very definition of misinformation. An honourable poster, one who went out of their way not to be disingenuous for fear of sucking in less sophisticated investors, would post new content advising all readers to ignore your post on Friday timed at 15:58. Over to you?

17:05
moda – nope, the exact opposite of a snake. He’s being completely transparent and honourable IMHO. Read his rationale for the trade. He’s not relying one iota on the fundamentals of 88E. He’s relying completely on the ill-informed fervour of the US social media OTC hype machine to deliver him a trading profit as the Alaskan winter season approaches. The difference between Rabito79 and Brom, for example, is that Rabito79 is being upfront with all readers of his content. He’s not attempting to speak with forked tongue, to lure in unsophisticated investors, is he? He’s not refusing to admit the day Conoco confirmed it was delaying the Willow project that it *instantly* decreased the NPV of Peregrine and Umiat.

So how do you define yourself, moda? Are you a true 88E-er, a genuine believer? Do you honestly believe the fundamentals of 88E *including its risked upside potential* come anywhere close to supporting the current mkt cap? Or are you like Brom? Eager to suck in the next wave of unsophisticated investors who are led to believe by multiple social media posts, such as your repeated and out-of-date links, that untold riches await them when the next drill’s results come in? And you’ll be sure to sell these new “marks” some of your shares, won’t you moda? 'Cause that’s the sort of thoughtful and generous fella you are?

You, moda, are the "snake". Either that, or you’re incapable of valuing E&P listed companies using *any* of the traditional valuation techniques. Which is it?

Sat 18:43
Hi Rabito79 – yep, I noticed the lack of flow test for Merlin-2 also. Delighted to read a more logical reason for this very odd omission. I’ve got a couple of theories:

A) 88E management suspect they may not find a farm in partner for Merlin-2 and wish to conserve cash to ensure they can pay the full costs for Merlin-2. If Merlin-2 blows out its budget by going 130% over it, like they did last year with Merlin-1, then preserving cash is essential.

B) Management doesn’t expect the three horizons being targeted by Merlin-2 to be worthy of testing.

C) Management realises that there’s no point flow-testing Peregrine this coming season because Willow has been delayed for at least a couple of years (according to the Anchorage Daily News) which means Peregrine remains a stranded asset just like Umiat has been for the last 70 years.

D) Management appreciates that for the hype and interest to continue unabated, to draw in the next fresh wave of speculative capital, they’re obliged to be active every winter season. They’re reasoning that if they stop moving, the company dies a death. So they’ll drill Merlin-2 and limit expenditure for the future work required at Project Icewine, which now appears to be the only viable project at the three main 88E locations.

Part 1, see above for Part 2)

19:39

I can perhaps help you out a bit here, RKHChippy? At various points in the recent past GS has accused me of working for Farallon....and then working for the Great Bear founders.....and then working on a devious hedge which relied on me sucking in private shareholders in an elaborate scheme . No, I couldn't work out that last one either. It was eventually felt that he didn't know the definition of "hedging" in a financial context.

I am, however, after all these years, delighted to confirm to him that I took the photos of the moon-landing in 1969 in a studio outside London. I got the lighting all wrong and the US flag cast a shadow which ought not to have been possible had the astronauts been in the moon's surface. Dammit. Oh, and did I mention, I did all this before I was even born!

GS is a purveyor of fantastical conspiracy theories. His multiple allegations have either been debunked or ignored. Totally up to you how you consume his content. Oh, and he drunk posts (think drunken phone calls but insert social media posting) absolute filth.

All in all, a real classy guy.

(continued from below)

Brom is too cowardly to answer my factual questions. Those interested in the two Alaskan companies, PANR and the SN, would do well to ask themselves why that is. GLA

FAO of csw12 and cbaron. No-one else needs to waste their time reading this post!

This is chiefly aimed at csw12 and a poster on the other place who both accused me of plagiarism. It’s no biggie, I told them both to believe my refutation or not. Trouble is, a couple of other folk then got the wrong idea so just clearing up the facts.

2/11/21: workflow around the DNR letter inviting comments about Theta West plans.

7.01pm – I accessed the relevant page on the DNR (Dept of Nat Res) website.
7.06pm – Brom published link to the DNR letter on lse PANR.
7.38pm – I posted DNR link on A..D..V..F..N.. together with multiple personal comments/interpretations of same.
8.02pm – I thanked Brom (on lse) for posting the link on lse, stated I had already seen it (at 7.01pm) and then tried to get Brom to answer some really simple factual questions. Naturally, he didn’t bother to reply because he knows the fundamentals of the SN’s investment case do not support the current mkt cap of the SN.
8.05pm – I copy’n’pasted my 7.38pm A..D..V..F..N.. post on to the PANR lse forum.

I completely accept the timing of public posts above leaves open the possibility that I just copied Brom’s link. I didn’t do that. I only noticed Brom had already posted the link when I got round to posting on lse. The other place is by far the primary UK forum for all things PANR so my posting on lse came 20 odd minutes later. Totally up to any reader whether they elect to believe me or not.

3/11/21: workflow around the results of the SoA lease auction

5.31pm – I posted the lease auction results and links on A..D..V..F..N..
5.35pm – I posted the lease auction results and links on lse PANR forum.
5.45pm – Brom posted the lease auction and link on lse SN forum.

Adopting the logic of csw12 from the previous day, because Brom posted the SoA auction results ***after*** I had done so then QED Brom *must have* "plagiarised” my work?! Firstly, I couldn’t give a t^^s if he did or didn’t (it’s a publicly available document after all). Secondly, I have followed Brom’s posting history long enough (as I know he has mine) to be perfectly happy to accept that he knows how to drive around the DNR website just as well as I do and I can well imagine he had diarised 5pm on 3/11/21 to access the auction results.

Lol, what it does prove once again, as if any further proof was required, is that Brom knows as much as I do (more probably) about the two companies. Unlike me, however, he seeks to hoodwink the less sophisticated folk attracted to the SN by the social media hype in order to facilitate his own strategy of trading the “peaks and troughs” (his own words). He attempts to portray a company, the SN, a) whose fundamentals support the current valuation and b) where the potential future upside as portrayed by the facts of the investment case as currently understood can also justify the current valuation on a standard E&P risk/reward basis. Brom is too cowardly to answer my factual

Wed 23:58 and 23:38

GS - Not particularly surprised to read your obsession with Farallon continues unabated. I trust the Alex Jones tinfoil hat is still perched on top of your noggin?

It appears no amount of factual evidence such as (i) the SoA exploration tax rebate scheme moratorium (ii) the purchase of GB's debt by Farallon from BoAML (iii) the PANR/GB merger documents (iv) testimony from original GB founders'n'funders is enough for Lanzarote's conspiracy theorist laureate.

I don't intend to indulge GS's conspiracy theories any further. It's tiresome and it hurts my head. Readers of GS's linked articles will note that Steyer's own money within Farallon doesn't invest in fossil fuels. There's no "hypocricy [sic] " there. It's no different to Schroders investing in BP for some of the pension funds they manage and electing not to do so on behalf of their ESG funds.

Farallon is HQ'd in San Francisco. This particular investment is managed outside of Farallon's US offices fyi. I can confirm this fact personally because, together with a couple of other investors, we approached Farallon to buy a line of stock earlier this year. We set up all the necessary paperwork but the trade (unfortunately) didn't go ahead. Real pity because the price was around 40p at the time!!

I'm a believer in empirical evidence. Farallon has acted entirely within the terms of the lock up agreement entered into at the time of the PANR/GB merger. They started selling stock only once that period expired in January '21. Had Farallon sought to damage PANR, derail its progress or derail the Board's strategy they could have dumped shares on the market at any time this year. Instead they have executed their trades in an objectively disciplined manner and behaved with remarkable consistency over the last 10 months. O that we had such disciplined and consistent posters on the lse bulletin board!

PS Turn your spell check back on, GS.

Nooooo, carbon. Re-read my post please. You've misinterpreted it entirely. By "no worries" I was informing you that I wasn't upset in the slightest by csw12's allegations. With that knowledge, re-read the full post and it'll make far more sense.

My point does make sense ref plagiarism. Brom and I both posted the SoA auction results TODAY (not yesterday) and because I posted EARLIER than Brom, using csw12's logic, it must mean Brom plagiarized me today. Geddit now?

Jeepers creepers.

22:05 Why indeed, Villa01. You're perhaps best posting your 22:05 content on the SN's forum?

21:30 No worries cbaron. FWIW I didn't copy/repeat/plagiarise Brom's post of yesterday evening. Using the same factless logic, Brom obviously plagiarised *me* this evening because I posted the SoA lease auction results before he did. Why do these bulletin boards attract so many people allergic to facts?! csw12 - another fantasist. Bit sad really. Hey-ho.

20:28

Hi Turnstone - the SoA DNR website will be able to provide you with a record of the prices paid for leases in prior years. I'm sure Brom will be able to point you in the right direction. If he doesn't, post your request on here. That said, please be aware that parties pay more or less per acre depending if it's right next door to an existing producing field v's 100 miles away in the middle of nowhere....also known as "Umiat" for the last 70 years.

20:28
csw12 - I have informed this "forum" repeatedly why I am here. I am here to nail down the facts of the 88E investment case in order to carry out a comparative valuation analysis of 88E and its NN. I have only posted on this forum since the date 88E management thought it would be a swell idea not only to confirm their view the two companies shared a common asset (fine, no worries in the slightest) but also (very disingenuously IMO) opted to include diagrams which gave the *false* impression to the market that the majority of the oil volume of the shared reservoirs is on the 88E side of the border. Tut, tut....because the actual answer is <10% of the volume is *perhaps* on the 88E side of the border and quite possibly a great deal less than 10%. I know it annoys the hell out of you to read this explanation, csw12. If you don't believe me, look back at my posting history on this forum and you'll see I posted once, repeat once, from 13/12/15 until 27/4/21.

All true "88E-ers" must surely think it odd that this most annoying ***and verbose*** of posters took over 5 years to become active on this forum? Do any of you think it's odd that my activity here began on that exact date? Until that date, there was no admission of a shared asset, correct? And then there was, so comparative analysis became not just useful but *essential* for the fundamental investor. Fact.

Lol, I've already told you that I didn't plagiarise or copy or repeat Brom's post of last evening. Brom and jofbobbitt both know very well that I am more than comfortable driving around the SoA DNR website myself and have done so for years. Totally up to you if you choose to believe me or not. To prove what a prize chump you are, have a look at the respective times Brom and I posted the results of the SoA lease auction today. Using your numpty logic, Brom plagiarised me today??!! Dear, dear, dear. Speaking of the lease auction, I bet you didn't even know the results were due to be published today, csw12, did you? But you'll buy a million shares because you're a punter, a sentiment player, a momentum trader.

Fact check for csw12: I have never, repeat never, posted anything on reddit. Fact. You're "really" not very good with facts, are you, csw12?

So, csw12 the Dishonourable, you are technically incapable or too cowardly to answer my fact-based questions. It's a pity but not a surprise.

Why isn't 88E planning to flow test Merlin-2 even if the logs support such an exercise?

Why have Dave Wall, APDC and Erik's contractors all sold out of 88E, or in DW's case sold >60% of his holding? What do they know that PIs in 88E don't?

Also, what activities does the Chairman of 88E consider constitute related party transactions? Has he examined the activities of Erik and his Alaskan colleagues during the 20/21 drilling season?

Do you believe, csw12, that 88E shareholders deserve a comprehensive explanation for Merlin-1 coming in at a cost of US$29m v's a budget of US$12.6m?

Dear All - looks like only 6 blocks in the whole North Slope region have been secured at auction this year. Nothing close to PANR's acreage.

https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Services/BIFAndLeaseSale

https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Documents/Leasing/SaleResults/NorthSlope/2021WF/NSA_2021_WF_Results_Map.pdf

https://dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Documents/Leasing/SaleResults/NorthSlope/2021WF/NSA_2021_WF_Preliminary_Summary.pdf