Member Info for Scot126

21:51
Hi Turnstone - dinnae fret, no nerves were touched or otherwise damaged by your post. In turn, I better ask after your nerves because you obviously feel sufficiently moved by the content of my posts to have made a number of very similar suggestions to me. It's awfully thoughtful of you but you don't need to give me that advice again. It's noted, it's digested and it's politely rejected. Good stuff.

21:04 and 21:15
For the avoidance of doubt, Turnstone, the questions I pose are 100% legitimate. They are completely standard questions asked by professionals in the equity markets, and especially so when two listed companies share an asset. That all of the prolific posters, with the notable exception of csw12 who recently and honourably admitted 88E was now a hype and meme stock only, choose not to provide an answer to any of my questions does not invalidate them. Rather it should give all readers of this forum pause for thought. If you've read back a few days of posting, Turnstone, you'll note various fellow shareholders of yours are also now asking some of the same questions. Good night.

21:04
Hi Turnstone - thank you for your thoughtful post. I've considered your advice and on this occasion have opted to not to accept it. Hope all well at your end too.

16:51
Hi Brom - this forum is still waiting for your reaction to Rabito79's fundamental analysis on 88E? Also, I asked you directly if you agree with me that 88E's mkt cap, on any given day, should be <20% of its NN's? O)r do you agree with Rabito79's assessment that it should trade around 30% of the NN's mkt cap - based solely on the fundamentals of course?

Now then, your post timed at 16:51. Question? Is this a gentle nudge to readers of this forum to head over to another website? If so, I think that's against the rules of lse.

Let's ignore that issue for now, shall we? If you were suggesting readers of this forum head over to the very warm highly conductive website in Oz, is that because there are fewer active sceptics on that forum? Perthaps fewer folk who are capable of dissecting the 88E management obfuscation *and* the social media hype/falsehoods?

You'd never seek to pull the wool over lse readers' eyes, would you Brom? All fully transparent with you, isn't it? Anyone starting to get the feeling Brom has been manipulating them over the years? I'll grant you he's very accomplished at it, but that's exactly what he's doing. But you don't need to believe me, ask him yourself. What does he think is the risked/unrisked value of 88E today, right now, before the beginning of this winter season? Ask him for his comparative valuation of 88E and the NN. Both neighbours, and owners of a shared asset, are now fully funded so it's an apples and apples comparison. Good stuff. Please let me know his answers, ok?

15:42
There has *got* to be some award for the following champion winning gobbledygook? Does anyone understand it because I haven't the foggiest????

"...there were a lot of moving parts but the APDC buy out and repayment of loan would have both added to c.$35m which would look like a spend but debt free and 100% WI the benefit...and half of that cost covered by the tax rebate sale."

Poor old Ddraig. He stated emphatically in an historical post that he "knows more about accounts than all the accountants I've hired in my career". Yet he produces a word salad (or should it be word vomit) like the above sentence. Anyone else wondering if Ddraig is telling us a few porkies here?!

Hiya Brom - take it by now you've had a chance to look at Rabito79's excellent comparative analysis on 88E and the NN? Happy to be corrected but I didn't spot any errors of fact in the model. We haven't heard anything from you in reaction so thought I'd ask. Absent any effect whatsoever from social media and assessing *only the fundamentals*, do you agree with me that 88E ought to be trading at <20% of the NN's mkt cap on any given day? Or are you more in line with Rabito79 who thinks 88E should trade at around 30% of the NN's mkt cap if I'm reading him correctly? Either which way, using the traditional sector risked/unrisked valuation method, there sure is a load of "speculative value" in 88E's current mkt cap and none at all in the NN's mkt cap. Always interested in your views as the most prolific 88E poster with >25k racked up. As always, I look forward to hearing back from you.

Oh, nearly forgot. I'm on record as having sincere and profound sympathy with 88E due to the "Biden delay". However it was only 8 or 9 days delay. There is no way in the world a 10 day delay would explain a budget overrun from US$12.6m to US$30m. No chance. Tell me something else, would you? Was there ever any flow testing kit on site at Merlin-1? Was any flow testing equipment/crew even on standby for Merlin-1? I know I can leave that with you as you're the poster closest to the company, by a country mile.

22:13
Factually incorrect, David WK.
The debt was secured on the Alaskan tax credits. When the company found a buyer for the tax credits, they immediately repaid the debt.

This time last year, the budget for Merlin-1 was US$12.6m. The eventual cost was circa US$30m. That is coming in at circa 130% over budget. Fact.

If you want the facts of the 88E investment case, feel free to ask questions on this forum. I'm sure there'll be plenty of volunteers willing to assist. Twitter, stocktwits, reddit, 8chan, etc? Not so much.

17:50
Only complicated if you don't know how to analyse a CB, Ddraig. Thankfully you have informed us that you "know more than all the accountants you've ever employed in your career" so you'll understand the CB very easily. I understand the terms, look pretty good to me. The hard floor convert price of 65p stood out to me. All good stuff. Naturally, Rabito79's analysis becomes even more pertinent and realistic now that both companies are fully funded for the season.

88E - drilling and flow testing Merlin-2
NN - drilling and flow testing Theta West; flow testing a minimum of four horizons at Talitha #A; drilling a horizontal production well at Alkaid in the Spring to produce first oil and cashflow.

I know every 88E shareholder will be cheering the NN on in their operations described above as there's the possibility success there will overlap onto 88E's Project Icewine. good stuff.

csw12 = you are a fair dinkum genius. You're not funded until you're funded, and the NN is now funded. Back to the debate on fundamentals......what part of Rabito79's analysis is factually incorrect?

18:32
Hi Deepcut - firstly I don't really care. By far the most important thing is the company is fully funded for the anticpated programme of operations.

listen, this is what ought to happen tomorrow/rest of the week. 1) Mkt should sit up and take notice that a wee AIM tiddler is going to be drilling/testing in Alaska which will get them a long way to declaring *if* Theta West is the largest or second largest oilfield ever found in North American history. Price appreciates.

What *might* happen is now that Primary Bid is involved there's the short term trader effect who is delighted to make 5p per share on 65p inside 24 hours. I couldn't give two hoots if that occurs. I'm in with a 9 month investment horizon and likely longer. From now until August/Sept I see a minimum of 8 distinct horizons being flow tested. Success in any one of those 8 zones = SP doubling from here. Those look like good odds to me after the Baker Hughes VAS Report on Talitha.

Good luck whatever you decide to do.

17:40
Anyhoo....100% W.I......don't write off the farm out deal quite yet....between now and the end of January (ie. before the data starts to come in from the tundra) there's a possibility if not a probability the farm in happens.

For those worried about the CB: hard floor convert price of 65p for the full 5 years; CB pays 20% premium to 65p issue price so 78p. 3 downward reset dates in 9, 18, 30 months so mid Sept '22 reset price *could* move to 73.67p.

IMHO there's a trade and an investment here:

Trade?
a) "Relief" type rally as the market realises PANR fully funded up to first horizontal production well and cashflow.
b) possibility of a farm out being signed in the next 6 weeks or so?
c) big press by our various online forums as we try to get the UK and US investment community aware of the sheer scale of Talitha and especially Theta West. GG - hope you and your moderators are ready to work hard!!

Investment?

a) Gain exposure to all of the above.
b) Gain exposure to a minimum of 8 and a maximum of 11 flow tests over the next 8 months or so. Success in any one of those 8 flow tests will add fundamental value of at least the current mkt cap.

It's a Yes from me.

Pander - does your broker have a relationship with Canaccord? If so, have your broker call them, see if you can get in the book that way.

Dear All - $70m has been raised by the company, comprising $50m convertible bond and $20m new equity. I'm told the deal is already more than covered but that they will consider overs. Price is set at 65p for the equity component. If you're interested, contact Primary Bid or call your broker and get them to phone your order into Canaccord if they have a relationship there. Good luck.

csw12 - ok, that's funding sorted....now about that comparative analysis..........

11:38
Brian1234 - what did you make of Rabito79's remarkably detailed comparative analysis? Did you agree with his work?

to everyone else still interested in the fundamentals of 88E, don't you find it odd that not one prolific poster, in fact not one poster in general, has engaged with Rabito79 to discuss/debate/disagree/query any of his analysis? There's no question that the work is of a high standard so it's a more than worthy item to be the subject of a discussion. So why the silence?

I'll try to answer that question. How's this for size? The vast, vast majority of you have finally admitted that 88E is a punt, divorced from the fundamentals and you're content to wait for the US OTC Wheel of Fortune to start spinning again so you can take advantage of their naivety and gullibility. Fine, knock yourselves out. Just quit with the sad and puerile attempts to justify this legitimate but rather unfortunate strategy.

For those who still wish to rely on fundamentals to support their investment strategy, I cannot recommend more highly reading Rabito79's comparative valuation work.

09:59
GS - town ain't big enough or the two if us? Factually incorrect. The two companies will survive and indeed thrive provided their assets are commercial and they're well managed. I submit PANR's acreage is geologically superior; that PANR know more about their acreage than 88E does theirs thanks to the $80m investment in 3D seismic; that PANR has collected far more data via drilling and te4sting than the SN to delineate their asset; that PANR has provided far more empirical data to support a fundamental value far in excess of its current mkt cap. An objective investor simply cannot say the same for the SN.

10:04
Unlike you, csw12, I have already answered this question on multiple occasions. Until PANR is funded for the upcoming season it is not funded.

10:11
Ddraig - jeepers, Geology 1.01. Seems that Draig knows more about accountancy than his accountants and he also knows more about geology than geologists! No sh^t, Sherlock! "The land and assets haven't changed" Lol, that takes millions of years generally! I know what you were trying to say, dinnae fret, but you're wrong about that too, naturally. You have forgotten the successful flow test at Alkaid in 2019, the 3700ft column of oil confirmed by Baker Hughes at Talitha and the 60k odd acres picked up by PANR in the January '21 lease auction which is now termed Theta West. What was the name of the company who gave up some of those Theta West leases in Q4'21? As Julia Roberts said so memorably in Pretty Woman, "Big mistake. Big. Huge."

I wasn't an investor in GB, thus I fail to comprehend the reference to "pain". You must be mixing me up with someone else. The definition of pain will come when you attempt to place a value on the Theta West leases the SN gave up. I forecast much wailing and gnashing of teeth, properly biblical amounts of it.

Now then. We know csw12 has publicly admitted the SN is no longer rooted in fundamentals and that it's a meme hype stock now. Ddraig appears to believe in the fundamentals of the SN but cannot provide any evidence whatsoever to back up any of his posts. And dear old GS....jeepers, he thinks the wee green men are going to land in San Francisco and take over the world with the employees of Farallon acting as their human allies or some such conspiracy theory.

08:57
Really simple explanation, FORD707. These two listed companies share an asset therefore comparative analysis is a legitimate and, I argue, necessary analytical method by which to assess value. Also, a disturbing number of PANR shareholders and potential investors were hoodwinked by a) the deliberate obfuscation by the SN management as it pertains to the overlap at Talitha/Icewine and b) the social media claims being made about the SN in relation to the established *facts* of the investment cases of both companies.

I'm urge you to spend a few minutes on Twitter to observe the rank disinformation which exists about the two companies, their respective potential scale, their respective data collection thus far, the complete lack of comprehension about the isolation of Umiat/Peregrine and then ask why greater factual content is required on the respective bulletin boards.

Have a look at Pander's post yesterday, for example. He doesn't have an axe to grind either way and yet he appears to accept the fallacy that the two are in any way comparable on the fundamentals - he expressly mentions mkt cap and resource estimates, for example. The SN has 100mmbo of reserves which haven't been touched since they were discovered 70 years ago. PANR has 1.9bbo of contingent resources next to TAPS and the Dalton. And yet PANR is valued by the mkt at £500m v's the SN at £200m. Those two valuations are massively out of whack IMO examining all industry-accepted metrics.

I presume you continue to monitor the SN forum? Look at the almost universal acceptance that it's a trading stock completely divorced from fundamentals. Compare that with the outrageous fundamental claims being made earlier this year and which continue to be made on other social media platforms.

You ask why? That's my answer.

16:46
Hi Ibiza28 - just checking you're aware of the following? The NN reckons 88E will have far less than 10% of the total volume of resource at Theta West and Talitha. Let's just say for the purposes of this evening's debate it 90:10, ok? If this guidance proves to be correct, why on earth would the NN wish to undertake a 50:50 merger with 88E when 88E only has 10% of the combined volume of oil? That just doesn't make sense.

And before anyone else jumps in about Yukon, Erik "ELKO" Opstad values it at less than zero currently.

And before anyone else jumps in about Peregrine/Umiat, the 88E BoD values those assets at $30m currently.

So, Mr Postman, what on earth is the rationale for your post at 16.46? I look forward to reading your response.

10:07
Hi Pander - I cannot possibly see how you can come to that conclusion. It either means you haven't understood Rabito79's analysis or you disagree with some of his inputs to the model. I suspect it's the latter so which variables have you highlighted where you believe Rabito79 may have erred. Based on the facts currently to hand, on any given day *prior* to the newsflow arriving from both company's operations this upcoming season, the SN should be trading at between one-fifth and one-seventh of PANR's mkt cap....and that's being generous to 88E.

Genuinely looking forward to you highlighting the parts of Rabito79's model with which you disagree. It'll be a good opportunity to test and challenge my own understanding too. Good stuff.

22.20
Thanks Mister.E.

I wonder if Erik Opstad has any relationship with the service providers for Merlin-2? For example does he own or is he a partner in any of the service providers selected for Merlin-2?

I note with great interest the escrow period. It doesn't prevent ELKO style spike trading necessarily but it doesn't make it impossible either. Anyone now getting the feeling that there was some interesting invoice timing last year, mixed up with share subscriptions and supplier placings in lieu of cash payments? Because that's what the ANN/RNS is referring to, isn't it?
Wake up, 88E shareholders. It's past time questions were asked of the 88E BoD.

16:32
Patience, Pander, patience. Good things come to those who wait. :)

21:32
Hi Reaper007 - Rabito79 and EmbarrassedCatlotsofnumbers are one and the same, I *think*. He's informed us he owns both 88E and the NN. It's an incredibly in depth analysis of the two individual stocks, examining the *potential* upside for each company from this winter's activities *only*. Thus, I would have thought it would be worth reading for fundamental investors like you and Ddraig.

I am equally sure the analysis would be of benefit to self-confessed "traders" like csw12, jofhobbit and Brom. Rabito79 examines the success case for all three horizons being targeted by Merlin-2, and looks at the absolute uplift in value a success would bring from each individual horizon. Traders can make use of this information, I would have thought, when the results come along in March/April '22 because they'll see where success takes the fundamental value of the equity....anything higher than that is, mathematically, froth and hype.

I have examined the hard data Rabito79 used in the tables. They match exactly the formal guidance issued by both management teams and their respective house brokers. For the (apparently) few remaining fundamental investors still active on this forum, it is an indisputable mathematical fact that, when using an identical valuation method for both stocks, the NN is massively cheaper than 88E based on all the metrics analysed. For traders, Rabito79 gets pretty close to suggesting if only one horizon at Merlin-2 is deemed a success, then the current SP is just about right. For a SP uplift next year which is fully supported by the fundamentals, 88E looks like it needs a double/triple success at Merlin-2. Otherwise the focus will be on the degree of "overlap" into Icewine from Talitha in the NN's acreage.

I'm on record stating my analysis suggests Project Icewine will prove to be 88E's most important and valuable asset. I see nothing in Rabito79's analysis which leads me to revise that understanding. Therefore I ask the objectively reasonable question, to both fundamental investors and "OTC hype traders": the NN's mkt cap is circa £500m and 88E's is circa £200m. Rabito79 points to a 10x uplift to the NN on a full success case ***this winter only***. What is the analysis for 88E? To have any chance whatsoever of that type of absolute performance, the maths show the 88E *must* have a success at Project Icewine. Agreed? So why invest in or trade a seat in the Gods v's a *cheaper* front row seat in the stalls. I fully recognise the history of last season's OTC hype but the maths show us that 88E needs multiples of that hype for that uplift, the NN just needs fundamentals and maths. For the traders out there, I'm not convinced you've calculated your probability of success odds accurately. Seems to me you're placing massive reliance on the US OTC hype being even larger this time round. That's a big bet when there's a far cheaper way to play Alaska AIM E&P.

Dear All - I suspect most will have done this already or will have determined to do so before Monday morning. Still....I strongly recommend all PANR shareholders and potential investors read Rabito79's latest comparative analysis on PANR and 88E. The standalone work on PANR is excellent. Placing the fundamental work on PANR within the context of the relative progress v's market valuations of these two Alaskan E&P companies is also, IMHO, invaluable. Well worth the 10 minutes to read and digest IMO.

Rabito79 - many thanks for your hard work and attention to detail, and for sharing same with the rest of us. Great stuff.