Member Info for Scot126

09:58
Hi FORD707 - that's the thing, I *have* explained my rationale loads of times, on both forums. Very gently put, you either haven't read my multiple posts of explanations or your mind hasn't been open to comprehending them. No worries, you've comprehended now which is appreciated at this end.

You wrote: "I agree if people are hoodwinking others for their own gain doesn’t sit right. Everyone has different agendas and beliefs." That's a pretty clear point of view. I'm not suggesting you waste your time doing so but that is *exactly* what I believe is happening with the SN, as do Rabito79 and olderwiser and many others. Not only that, it is my contention that prolific posters including the most prolific of them all know that's exactly what is happening.

They do not share my values, which is fine. What is not fine is them shamelessly misinforming and misdirecting naïve simpletons and not responding to legitimate questions when they know the answers just as much as I do. It's all good and well replying 'caveat emptor' until you see tweets from uneducated folk such as this US OTC SN shareholder: "True - it would be nice to have them [88E] eliminate a good portion [of shares on issue] to help drive the price per share toward .25¢ initially. We would be trading the same as Pantheon $PTHRF at $1.00"

No comprehension of mkt cap, no apparent interest in the characteristics of the assets held by the two companies. This scares the living bejesus out of me.

FORD707 - I appreciate you're not spending 16 hours a day ramping the SN on US bulletin boards (well, I don't *think you are, are you?!) but it's clear some are. The guy from Ohio who's been indicted by the FBI/SEC was just getting on to 88E last year before he was arrested. I am straight up telling you that I cannot, no matter how hard I try, get to a valuation much above £50m for the SN. And certainly not into 9 figures of mkt cap (>£100m). JFC, there are some members of the SN twitter army who reckon they're shareholders in a company which has 1.6 billion barrels of reserves (they don't) times $85 per barrel "and that's how much we're really worth".

One of my sparring patterns on the SN forum on this site admitted a couple of months back that it's a meme stock now, having no association with the fundamentals. He was spot on. If you want to play the high stakes game of pass the parcel and not be too greedy and make absolutely certain you're not left holding the shares when the music stops, then knock yourself out. Be like Brom and DW and ELKO and APDC and be sure to sell some/all so that you will not be able to tell folk like me in 12 months time that "you haven't sold one SN share."

Please be under no illusion that you're playing pass the parcel. The current valuation bears no resemblance whatsoever to the value of the SN's assets, never mind what may happen when the "pass the parcel" music is turned up to 11! As was said in Hill Street Blues, "Be careful out there!

continued for FORD707

In the end, it's all about maths, relative valuations and personal values. I've put my money where my maths and relative valuation calculations have taken me. I'll stand or fall financially on this particular investment based on my own research and my own decisions. No worries on that front. What I will not do, perhaps unlike you (?), is to forget about the poor saps in the US OTC markets who are going to be left holding your shares at this year's equivalent of the US9c intra-day high for SN last March/April.

I 100% accept you just cannot understand why I think as I do. I don't know how else to explain it. You and I just have different values, that's about the size of it. It's no more or less than that. We've had different different families bringing us up, different educations, different life experiences. It is what it is!

I note you used the phrase, "I don't doubt". That's faith, that's hope, FORD707 . I prefer maths, probability and empirical data. Good luck to you, sir.

Yes, I fully appreciate you publicly conceded the two companies are different animals a long time ago. On that point, I agree with you, no worries.

I am not obsessed. However I am most certainly bewildered. I watched the whole Gamestop phenomenon in the US with my jaw dropping to the floor as Joe Public took on and destroyed a US hedge fund. Fascinating, absolutely fascinating. It compelled me to research the power of these digital forums, happy to admit that for sure.

I have this to say to you in response to your post. I put it to you that *you* don't understand the fundamentals of the SN. I don't think there is a snowball's chance in hell that the SN will ever produce a commercial barrel of oil from Yukon/Umiat or Peregrine. If they're able to survive, they ***might*** produce commercial oil from one of the horizons in the Central Blocks.

Question for you. Bearing in mind both BoDs formally accept there's an overlap of horizons at Icewine => shared asset, do you have any idea of the statistical probability the markets will continue to value 10% of that asset at £300m and 90% of that asset at £550m? Any idea?

The answer is nil. If, and to repeat that it is an if, the geology is *exactly* as both companies imagine/wish, then one day soon some hedge fund dude sitting in Connecticut or a fund manager at Blackrock or Fidelity will spot the mispricing and within a few hours/days it'll be sorted. [NB Remember, this scenario is dependent on a success case for both companies.]

It just doesn't work any other way. The maths always comes out in the end. I was always confident it would, as my posting history suggests. However, with PANR raising >$90m in December v's the SN now once again caveating a flow test at Merlin-2 due to financial concerns I'm even more certain. PANR now has the funds to stick around and see through the data discovery at Alkaid/Talitha/Theta West. The SN *might* not be able to.

Direct questions for you, FORD707.
1) If you spoke to Erik on the phone and he told you Yukon had a negative NPV just like his own personal leases next door, would you believe him?
2) If you spoke to the Conoco CEO on the phone and he told you he had the SN over a barrel because any production at Umiat/Peregrine depends ***solely*** on Willow going ahead which will take >$3bn and THEN he has to build a pipeline 20m south to Peregrine and THEN he's the only buyer in town because no other owner is allowed to use the Conoco pipeline....and he finished by saying he's happy to wait for 10 years and buy the leases when the SN hands them back worthless, would you believe him?

It's nothing to do with my delivery. I've used maths, I've written out word for word the exact questions SN shareholders ought to ask their BoD, I've ridiculed posts, I've shown what DW did, I've shown what Erik did and is doing again......you're in a cult-like state I fear.

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14) Thu 11:41 Mindbender: cracking quote, genius. His investment record speaks for itself but IMHO he’s also an excellent communicator. Unlike many other geniuses he has the ability to explain sometimes very complicated theories using simple language. Cbaron – I remember being a bit puzzled when I first read that quote of his but when I reflected some more, I found myself nodding in complete agreement. Especially true for a fundamental investor.

15) SeaHawk 11:55 – solely interested in *fact* discovery and the dissemination of the consensus understanding of the *facts* of the PANR investment case. Sadly, all too often that means countering those promulgating misinformation and disinformation.

Good to have a moan on an investors’ forum from time to time, is it? Why shareholders insist on using these public bulletin boards as a substitute for a psychiatrist’s couch is beyond me. I’ve never understood why some choose that option, probably never will. To be clear, nothing wrong with having strong views concerning the *facts* of an investment case, but to moan? Look at GS’s example moaning at “Jay’s silly grin”? Let’s just say GS has some super power that allows him to identify wrong’uns by the shape of their grin. In that case, GS ought to use that knowledge to sell his shares asap before the SP drops. What on earth is the point of moaning on a public forum as a shareholder? All you’re doing is affecting the emotions of other shareholders and demotivating any readers of the forum who may be conducting their DD prior to investing by assessing the mood of the shareholder base? Madness.

Getting jumped over? Cry harder, SeaHawk. You may be happy for others to disseminate misinformation and/or disinformation but I, together with my group of fellow investors, do not. Plus, it is a statement of fact that the Alpha Delta Victor Foxtrot November is by far and away the primary forum in the UK for this particular company, and well you know it. That’s the main reason this forum is far quieter. Fact.

16) maestro1 12:09 – are you referring to the Darcon thread or the Guild on the other place? If so, you’re kidding aren’t you? “Many got blocked.” Factually incorrect. I certainly *wish* more had been blocked but sadly it’s only been a handful. Censorship? Nonsense, utter tosh. To be clear, if someone posted on the thread that he had proof Talitha was not full of 40 degree API crude but full of Irn Bru which allowed me to sell my shares before the SP went to 0p, I’d be massively grateful and would send him a case of wine in gratitude. However, why should shareholders not be robust in the face of often nefarious actors who seek to damage my financial interests by promulgating misinformation or disinformation. Since when did we become so permissive that this is no longer considered poor form? Nope, not for me.

continued 12)

12) Yes, I 100% appreciate SN, complete with its 20k strong, credulous army of unsophisticated OTC stocktwits, makes it a perfect mix of ponzi scheme and stockmarket game of pass the parcel ("when the music stops I won't be the one left holding the shares") but still???? This mispricing is jaw-dropping.

Happy to be fact checked by anyone on the relative merits of both companies and their *fundamental* valuations.

13) Question for Slackbladder2708. If I asked the 20k members of the SN stocktwits forum the following questions, what percentage do you think would answer correctly?

Question 1.

Dear 20k SN stocktwits…..scot126 is going to give each one of you $500 worth of shares in one company. He’ll give you a choice of shares in Company A or shares in Company B. Company A has 750m shares on issue and they are trading at US$1.00 per share. Company B has 14.8bn shares on issue and is trading at US$0.0506.

Would you opt for 500 shares in Company A or 9,881 shares in Company B? Or are you happy with either Company A or Company B shares?

Question 2.

All 20k of you SN stocktwits have received the shares as described above. If you elected to receive Company A shares, you’ve now got 500 of them registered in your name. If you elected to receive Company B shares, you’ve now got 9,881 of them registered in your name. The SPs are still the exact same price as they were in Q1.

Breaking News!!!! Massive moves in the stockmarket today. Fortunes are being made and lost. Company B’s shares are now trading at US$0.0592 and Company A’s shares are now trading at US$1.17. Which group of shareholders is the happier? The owners of 9,881 shares in Company B or the owner of 500 shares in Company A?

I look forward to your response, Blackadder2708. I have a percentage in mind, based on my reading of the stocktwits forum and the SN army’s tweets. I’ll let you answer first and then I’ll reply with my percentage. We’ll compare our answers, for sure, but then I have another question for you.

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12) GS, Wed @ 08:19. Ok, we’ll start with a fact check and quick lesson. Had Justin been Bed and ISA’ing a) he wouldn’t have been included in the RNS dated 13/1/22 and b) he or his wife did indeed do a Bed & ISA a year ago, maybe 18 months ago? Spend a couple of minutes looking through the historic RNSs and you’ll be able to see for yourself that it’s described differently from what you witnessed on Tuesday/Wednesday this week. Fact.

As for Justin’s exerci.se and sale of 500k options, here’s what happens. Canaccord sold his 500k shares at, say, 70p = £350k. The 350k is remitted to PANR at which point £150k goes to the PANR bank account (500k x 30p) and £200k goes to PANR’s payroll. In the next payroll run, Justin’s £200k will be taxed at 45%-50% so he’ll be receiving c.£100k. His first options/share sales in 15.5 years and <5% of his total exposure to the company. I have zero issue with that, zero.

Oh, and no, “we” are not all “in both” PANR and the SN. Let me tell you why a fundamental investor, like wot I am, wouldn’t be “in both”.

SN's mkt cap is £330m v's PANR's £550m today. Here's a brief summary why I think this is stupefying.

SN has three main projects: Yukon, Icewine and Peregrine/Umiat.

a) Yukon - SN's Erik Opstad (88E's General Manager of Alaskan Operations) is on record in 2021 (Petroleum News) declaring his personal leases adjacent to 88E's Yukon acreage have a "negative NPV". QED Yukon is worth $0 to SN.

b) Peregrine/Umiat - Umiat has 100mmbo of reserves but is so isolated not one barrel of oil has been produced since it was discovered in the 1940s. The SN paid $1m for it. Let's agree it's still worth $1m.

50% of Peregrine was sold back to 88E in 2021 by a consortium of Alaskan oil veterans (***after*** the results arrived from Merlin-1) for $14m. So let's stipulate Umiat/Peregrine is worth $30m. That's what the company and Alaskan veterans value it at. Who are we to argue?

c) This leaves Project Icewine accounting for a cool c.£300m of market value. April '21 saw SN formally publish its view that certain PANR horizons overlapped into their Central Block leases. FWIW I think they're correct. Looks to Rabito79 and me that the Kuparuk, SFS and maybe some SMD near the Dalton could overlap onto SN's acreage? I think it'll end up being <10% of the recoverable oil across the totality of the combined acreage but, for the purposes of this exercise, let's say SN has 10% by volume, ok? Thus, the market is valuing 10% of the PANR/SN oilfield at £300m on the SN side of the border. Wait, what??? The same stockmarket is valuing PANR's 90% of the PANR/SN oilfield at £550m. So, 10% of the oilfield is worth £300m and, at the exact same time, 90% of the oilfield is worth £550m.

Hmmmm, and double hmmmm.

Something is very wrong here. Either SN is waaaayyyyyy overvalued or PANR is waaaayyyy undervalued (or a combination of both of course).

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9) Slackbladder2708 – have you noticed the SN’s guidance has changed again, reverting back to the flow test of Merlin-2 being subject to finance? So it was subject to finance, then it wasn’t, and now it’s back to being subject to finance again? Oh, and did you ever enquire with the SN’s BoD whether they actually had flow testing equipment and personnel lined up at Merlin-1 last year? Hint? They didn’t.

“…at the expense of anyone who listened to him.” Hmmm, my lowest purchase of PANR has been between 7p and 8p. I was then very active and said so when the Kuparuk result was published pre the explanatory April webinar last year so another big line purchased at 18-20p. Firstly, you’re mathematically incorrect. Secondly, I am not providing financial advice to anyone. I am, however, happy to suggest other readers not place any weight on your posts. Thanks for the opportunity to do so again today.

Going back to your phrase about something happening “at the expense” of others. It’s an interesting phrase, isn’t it? I wonder how all those unsophisticated victims (or “marks” to use the correct label?) in the US felt when folk like you profited from last year’s social media hype surrounding the SN, selling at US 8-9c and posting on forums the company had made a discovery? Or that Umiat/Peregrine will be worth even a dollar unless Conoco a) builds out Willow for >$3bn b) builds a pipeline south to Peregrine/Umiat c) decides to offer a penny to 88E in a decade’s time to take Peregrine/Umiat off its hands?

My reply to you, Slackbladder, is as follows. It’s you whose character and morals are in question, not mine. And this season’s big game of pass the parcel (SN version) looks like it’s already begun. It’s me who’s thinking of the tragic victims just about to get spiked by the likes of you. You? All about the Benjamins and stuff morality, eh? Time for *you* to look in the mirror, methinks.

10) Tue 18:45: Factually wrong. That said, I very much appreciate your use of “looks like….to me” rather than the declarative and definitive vocabulary used by too many other posters. h/t

11) Tue 19:45: No. Two things here. The buy/sell data provided to us by the LSE is not fir for purpose. Second, you can’t buck the markets as Mrs T once said memorably. Believe me, if there was more buying power then willing selling volume a SP goes up. If there is more selling power than willing buying volume, a SP goes down. Forget all this market maker nonsense, “holding it down”, etc, etc. If you asked me to keep PANR at, say, 70p for a week, I could do it. But you’d have to give me access to approx. £5m of capital for me to guarantee it. Please, please, please believe me when I promise you that small cap market makers have nowhere near that amount of capital at their disposal for a single AIM stock with a mkt cap of £550m. No chance.

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8) Sat 22:00 from Goldstinger “Hi all. It bothers me that everyone shuts up on here, especially when drilling starting. This should be flying. The only reason it’s not? Jays’s silly grin on that video. What ceo does that? What a prat. GS”

And this arch-conspiracy theorist continues to be egged on by a handful of other sentient humans on this forum? Funny old world, Saint. Who even thinks like this? Even worse, who doubles down and thinks it’s appropriate to then publish that outrageous thought on a public investor forum? Direct question to GS. So, rather than Jay Cheatham as a CEO, would you rather have Dave Wall (seller of at least 60% of his holding in the SN since departure) or Erik Opstad? Erik Opstad, the guy whose ELKO company came in a bewildering 130% over budget on Merlin-1, profited massively from the engineered OTC SP spike of March/April ’21, and without so much as a squeak from the prolific posters on the SN’s forum HAS ALREADY STARTED SELLING STOCK IN THE SN IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS!!!! Absolutely incredible that all these hyper-opinionated but tragically unsophisticated shareholders on the other forum allow this outrageously unethical conduct to continue unhindered. Dear oh dear.

I’ll take Jay as CEO, grin or no grin. Also, Jay has not sold one share in 12 years involvement with PANR. Justin just sold <5% of his total exposure after 15.5 years employment by PANR. DW sold >60% as soon as he could….ELKO sold out entirely in 2021…..APDC sold their whole 50% of Peregrine in 2021…..and ELKO HAVE ALREADY STARTED SELLING SHARES THIS YEAR!!!! And you have the gall to talk about a grin??????

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6) I apologise if this conclusion has been posted and digested previously. It’s worth noting the fact the Nordic-Calista No.3 rig has moved from the Talitha pad to Theta West *must* mean the temporarily abandoned Talitha #A wellbore is in a condition suitable for the full range of flow testing to occur using the coiled tubing unit. This is a tick in the box of the investment case being further de-risked. Good stuff.

7) Mr Cube – direct answer for you is that the news from each flow test will be published via RNS as and when the company receives the data. There is no plan, repeat no plan, to save up all the flow test results and publish them in one big RNS at the end of the season. 100% the flow tests will be published result by result. Hope that helps.

continued

Any comparison of the flow test data from Talitha #A or Theta West-1 with a production well at Prudhoe Bay is utter madness and should be ignored completely. That would be apples and oranges = nonsensical.

Please listen to the likes of SeaHawk. There’s a world of difference between wells designed for maximum data collection over multiple distinct horizons v’s a production well, and there’s a world of difference between a vertical well and an extended horizontal production well with multi-stage frack.

5) FORD707 – there’s no other reason for the SP not going up since the New Year than that there’s been more sellers than buyers. If you wish more detailed info about market intel, I’d suggest following the forum on Alpha Delta Victor Foxtrot November rather than this one, but that’s your call. Had you been following me on the other place you’d know I was able to confirm the large-ish seller (but non-declarable, ie. <3%) had finished selling as of Tuesday this week. NB This seller is entirely separate from the exercise and sale of employee options. Like FORD707, I too expected a SP appreciation over the first 3 weeks of January but if the selling is larger than the buying, the SP gets weaker. I know the identity of the seller and all I can say is that they know no more about the incoming results from Talitha and TW than any of the readers of this post.

I’ll also metaphorically eat my hat if Farallon hasn’t continued to sell a few shares since the fundraise completed. Put it this way, if a new TR-1 from Farallon dropped on Monday, I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest. Same with Heights Capital, the convertible bond holders. For those willing to learn, please google “delta hedging of a convertible bond”. You’re all sentient beings but I have dismantled brutally every single one of GS’s avalanche of often contradictory conspiracy theories. Thus, it also wouldn’t surprise me if the US$3m equity component of Heights Capital investment in December had been sold to shadow delta hedge their Dec-Feb Q1 position.

Frustrating? Sure. But this is the price we shareholders *must* accept for a) being fully capitalised to the tune of >$90m and sufficient to fund 3.5 wells and b) the company adopting this method of funding v’s a farm out which instead of dilution of 12% could have seen a 25%, 30%, 49%, 50%, >50% dilution to the asset. All those dilution percentages were discussed and debated as possibilities on forums such as this one over the last 9 months. Fact. In the end, the fundamentals will out via the drillbit. We just require a few more days/weeks patience.

continued

3) The capital available to small cap market makers since the GFC is two-fifths of b^gger all. Some *may* have permission to be long/short £25k overnight, the likes of Numis and Peel Hunt might have £100k available for market making in PANR. Being blunt just for the purposes of making some of you quit this particular and oft-repeated conspiracy theory, if I decided to sell my holding today, right now, it would overwhelm all the market makers put together who are active in this stock. If there are more buyers than sellers (by value) the SP goes up.....if there are more sellers (by value) than buyers the stock goes down. Ok, ok, this "manipulation" thing *might* happen from time to time in a £20m mkt cap tiddler but not £550m mkt cap PANR. I'd urge readers to discount the posts of anyone who promulgates this nonsense conspiracy theory. Fact.

4) Speculation on flow rates. Firstly, let's ***all*** wait for the webinar until speculating further, eh? It'll sound arrogant, I get it, but I know more than 99% of folk about PANR and I haven't a scooby about what flow rate will constitute a success or failure for *any* of the horizons being tested this season. I give you my word on that.

That said, I recognise it's a perfectly human instinct to wish to speculate on these incoming flow rates because they will have a serious effect on the SP. I "get it". What I *don't* "get" is the decision by some posters to publicly comment on their personal random number generator brain f@rt which sees them throw out numbers 8despite not having had any access to the PANR’s dataroom or entire dataset. That is just ludicrous behaviour, it really is.

I note SeaHawk has tried to educate this forum repeatedly. Both Talitha #A and Theta West were designed SOLELY to collect as much data as possible over the course of the short Alaskan drilling season. We, must, must, must listen to management about expectations from this part of the incoming results for their interpretations of what constitutes a good/neutral/poor result in each of the horizons.

Aha! But what about Alkaid 2 and Alkaid 3? This is an entirely different kettle of fish. These wells, due to be drilled from roadside pads in the Spring/Summer/Autumn of 2022, *are* horizontal wells expressly designed to be producing wells. It is here that shareholders have every right to expect to hear guidance on daily production expected. During an earlier in person presentation in London, Bob mentioned 1200-1500 bopd would be a range might expect to observe. I remember Jay referring to 4 trucks a day heading north to pump Station No.1 – happy to be corrected (NB per single Alkaid production well).

How spooky. I was typing up some catch up notes for this forum and some of you, including the arch-fantasist GS, are talking and moaning about me. I'm truly touched, bless your hearts.

Ok, going back through posts since 4/1/22 and will attempt to answer a few common issues.

1) The large after-market trades we're getting used to seeing after 4.35pm until 5pm, approx. Unlike the mostly naïve 88E posters on the other forum, I'd strongly urge all readers of this thread to read and accept the following. The OTC listing does not mean the stock is fully fungible, ie. transferable from one exchange to the other. Thus the US OTC brokers/market makers have got to firstly source liquidity from PANR's primary exchange (AIM London) and use that liquidity to provide stock for US OTC retail buyers (and sellers) in the US. I looked on in amazement last year as the vast majority of UK/Aussie 88E posters last year simply refused to understand this mechanism, thus massively over-estimating the genuine volume of trading which occurred. Please understand that this mechanism is nobody's "fault" or "strategy", it's just the way it is. Until/if PANR decides to dual list on NASDAQ/NYSE, we would all do well to incorporate this process in our individual assessment's of the genuine volume of trades. Thus, I strongly suspect that there will be days when we don't only have to assess the regular double counting of the market-maker led AIM market but the triple counting which sees UK brokers sell on tranches of accumulated stock after market to their US OTC contacts. Get used to it is my advice. That said, it is my belief the PANR BoD will examine a dual listing on NASDAQ/NYSE after the winter season, providing we receive some decent results of course.

2) GS on 5/1/22. Brace yourselves everybody. I agree with GS in his observation PANR is not overly focussed on stockmarket PR. My on record and long term opinion? It's due to a combination of senior management not recognising it's part of their role *and* PR's place in the list of genuine priorities for an 8 employee company which thinks it may have discovered the first, second or third largest oilfield in American history. It is what it is for now, IMHO, but if the data proves to be as expected by management's geological model then the PR will look after itself as US instos wake up to what little tiddler PANR has on its hands.

3) This whole "market makers holding back the stock", "they know what's going on before we do", blah, blah, blah. Listen up, and listen good. I sat beside market makers for years and years. If you asked the average market maker to point to Anchorage on a map of the world, most of them wouldn't have a scooby. Deadhorse? Forget it. These guys react to prices and volume. That's it, end of story. We are the market. All of us who participate in the buying and selling of this stock, we're the market. Further info for the conspiracy theorists.

Dear All - I've been told to expect the next PANR webinar in the second half of January. The AGM date (according to sirmark is 24/1/22) so something around that date would appear to make sense?If previous webinars are anything to go by this news will be very much welcomed by shareholders and potential investors alike. I'm sure I'm not alone when stating categorically I learn heaps and heaps from industry experts like Bob Rosenthal and Roger Young whenever PANR hosts a webinar. I have no doubt it'll be another "must see" event.I suspect management will likely seek to shape expectations or outline the parameters by which the market can judge the mountain of data heading our way over the Alaskan winter season. Great stuff.

19:58
Hi Brom - ref. your statement, "As long as you are enjoying the journey and making some money, which is after all what we are here to do I think." That's all fine, no worries on that score. The trouble comes when folk like you and other prolific posters attempt (remarkably successfully I must admit) to pull the wool over the eyes of other more naïve speculators/investors whilst at the same time selling into ***the very buying spike you assisted in creating***. Buyer beware an' all that may make it fair game for your conscience but it is blatantly obvious not all posters on this forum share your values. And that's no bad thing IMHO.

Hi dellfrog/Olderwiser/Blingybird - I 100% recognise dellfrog was relying on external sources for his initial post about large shareholdings in PANR. The following response is for everyone who uses these external sources to attempt to assess larger shareholdings and their potential impact on a stock. ***Treat the data with a pinch of salt.***

The best and most authoritative data is to be found by tracking the formally published TR-1s. This can be rather tedious but it's by far and away the most accurate way of examining changes in large holdings or the arrival of a significant shareholder on a register or the disappearance of a formerly large shareholder from a register.

Professionals in the market also use these external sources from time to time but there is *always* the understanding the data may be incorrect, holdings duplicated, holdings being out of date, etc. It's a perfect example of "bad data in, bad data out". In my experience, of all the external data vendors Bloomberg is the most accurate and up to date, but it's also far from perfect.

Companies can pay their registrar for an up to date report of shareholders and their holdings. However, the beneficial owner of large tranches of shares can be hidden by the use of nominee companies or using vehicles whose "home" jurisdiction has somewhat loose rules concerning investment transparency.

Looking specifically at PANR. We know Farallon has <9% of the ordinary shares on issue and the Great Bear founders'n'funders own 4.7% (GBPO LLC). The only other declarable holding (3%+) is Sir Michael Spencer's shareholding which, from memory, is around 4% or just over (happy to be corrected). Anything else is out of date or perhaps a nominee holding acting as an "umbrella" for dozens of individual shareholders who may use mass market brokers like TD Waterhouse, Barclays, ii, Hargreaves Lansdown, etc.

Even the shareholding data provided on the company website can be taken with a pinch of salt. From memory, AIM companies are only required to update large shareholding data on their website every 6 months. Where it may be useful, in this specific instance, is highlighting greater activity in PANR by US investors (private and/or instos). I've been monitoring these movements and there's no doubt in my mind that, since around June/July '21, there has been net buying from US domiciled investors, largely soaking up Farallon's selling. I try to identify the underlying investors by following the metaphorical bread crumbs and I've identified a couple of US instos who *may* have been responsible for some of that buying. I *cannot* be categorical about this so have made the very deliberate decision not to post their identities.

Until new TR-1s are published, the only holdings in PANR totalling >3% IMO are Farallon, GBPO and Sir Michael Spencer. Hope that helps.

Dec 22nd
Hi EasyRoad - lol, what a list of risks you highlight. I 100% believe you are a shareholder but for those less aware of the facts surrounding drilling in the Alaskan winter drilling season, I'll just add a wee bit more nuance and information to your post.

(i) weather too hot - the season *can* be brought to a premature conclusion if the nearby rivers start to thaw earlier than normal and threaten to flood the drilling pad or the iceroad back to the Dalton Highway. The Alaskan regulator is the ultimate judge on such matters and when they tell operators to do x, y or z then that's what generally happens! Alkaid-1 experienced just such an event when the nearby Sag River flooded and Alkiaid-1 had to be wound up earlier than expected, and without reaching the planned TD (thus PANR/GB has not reached o/w contact in the Alkaid Lower horizon).

The good news is that a) work on the construction of the ice road is "perfectly on schedule" b) Talitha is already drilled and cased, with flow tests *only* being planned for this season c) Theta West is due to spud comparatively early in the season and is shallower than last year's Talitha #A. Unlike Talitha #A, it's targeting two horizons only v's Talitha's up to 8 horizons. Net, net, net.....the risk that weather will affect the planned winter operations has been mitigated as far as possible. Yes, freak weather events cannot be ruled out, but PANR's technical team and contractors have done as much as humanly possible to mitigate the risk. Reassuring.

(ii) "weather too cold" - yes, this can happen too. It mostly affects equipment reliability and contractor H&S. Once again, the best way to mitigate this risk is to begin operations as early in the season as possible. We know that as of today's date, PANR and their contractors are "perfectly on schedule". Great stuff.

(iii) equipment issues - rigs don't get lost but I take your point. The good news for PANR shareholders is that Deadhorse is only 15-20miles up the road. Deadhorse has lots of oil service firms with spares on hand and there's also the airport if, eg. any spares need to be flown in from Texas. Also worth remembering PANR is employing the same rig and crew as completed the Talitha #A safely and successfully last year.

(iv) polar bear activity - too far south and away from the coast to impact polar bear habitat. Established fact from Unit approval of Alkaid and Talitha.

(v) something unexpected "down the hole". No guarantees, this can certainly happen. But once again significant mitigation of this risk is present. PANR management now has all the Pipeline State No1 and Talitha #A wellbore data plus 3D seismic to work with. Therefore, logically, the risk of unwelcome surprises *ought* to be very limited.

(vi) Santa is back in Lapland by now. Phewee!

Dec 22nd
FORD707 - lol, you "don't know about predicting the SP really because anything could happen" and then you proceed to do so! I "get" it, you made it perfectly clear to all readers it was your personal opinion. all good.

Looking at your scenarios in turn:
(i) I agree 100% with you that management "believe they have been conservative with their estimates" and guidance thus far.
(ii) "They could well have a lot more. " I have an upside scenario in my model which sees PANR's OIP figure double from the current mid teens of billions of barrels fwiw. Interestingly, around the 30bbo OIP mark is where PANR approached the OIP figure for Prudhoe Bay and is greater than that of Kuparuk River. We know that eSeis and some PANR employees are on record as stating Theta West will eventually rival those two massive oilfields in scale. (ref. April and August '21 webinars)
(iii) always a possibility I guess but, IMO, not a probability until at least one other winter drilling season to further delineate Theta West and Talitha.
(iv) I can see one Alkaid well producing by "the end of summer" this year, and generating much welcome cashflow. It's maybe worth remembering Bob Rosenthal has guided it will take around 5 months to conduct a LTPT (long term production test) on these first production wells leading to a reserves classification. Thus, I would contend a $10 valuation is a bit too much of a stretch "within 9 months".

FWIW, if PANR/eSeis management's geological model is correct, I can fairly easily make the case for >$10 per share in the fullness of time. However, in order to get to that sort of valuation, be it from the market or from a suitor(s), Talitha and Theta West will need to be delineated further with more wells *and* there'll likely have to be a LTPT or two carried out on some horizontal production wells on those two projects. The great news is that PANR has retained 100% ownership of the assets and so it is in the Board's hands how far up the value add curve the company travels v's time taken to do so.

A fair response from FORD707 and others might be, "Well, scot126, *if* the upcoming operations at Talitha, Theta West and Alkaid are all successful, what SP can you justify on the fundamentals? My response, based on a complete success scenario remember, would be somewhere around the 400p area.

Dec 21st
Goldstinger - I answered each and every one of your points. The fact you didn't like the responses or couldn't comprehend them is a Goldstinger problem, not a PANR forum problem.

Now then, speaking of "gibberish", where's the apology to this PANR forum *and especially* to your fellow shareholders for all the conspiracy theories you promulgated and disseminated on this website over the last 6 months or so? The TR-1s published on 16/12/21 and 17/12/21 blew each and everyone one of your ludicrous, fantastical, ill-educated (have you had the time and inclination to educate yourself about what "hedging" means within a financial context now?) conspiracy theories out the water?

I'll be amazed if you were to do so, but an honourable person would apologise to your fellow shareholders *and* to everyone who read your pathetic conspiracy theories over the last 6 months. Delighted if you wish to expressly exclude me from your apology, GS, but please just do the right thing by all the other folk whom you have *needlessly* misled over the last 6 months.

https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=%23panr&src=typed_query

Cracking photos and update on Twitter. Commentary with the photos:

"Pantheon’s ice road build continuing to make great progress over Christmas. #PANR $PANR #PTHRF $PTHRF #OOTT #Alaska #NorthSlope #iceroadtruckers"

Additional comment: "A couple of pics taken from the ice road build which started at the Dalton Highway where it first heads to the Talitha #A location where camp facilities, amongst others, will be based, before heading towards the Theta West location. Work has continued with vigour over the Christmas track and remains perfectly on schedule."

"perfectly on schedule" = great stuff.

I recognise there are a few stories out there about Alaska experiencing the warmest December day on record. The story is accurate *but* the data was collected in Fairbanks, approximately 373 miles south of Deadhorse. PANR's acreage is 15-20 miles south of Deadhorse and, as many posters have verified, is plenty cold enough to be constructing ice roads. Any attempt by well-meaning but ill-informed posters to spread some weather-related fear ought to be challenged robustly by those who are so minded, ignored by everyone else.

All starting to feel very real for this upcoming season.

Hi dellfrog - I don't have much time to reply to you right now except to state that your understanding of the shareholdings you list in your post timed at 16:57 are dead wrong. No ifs, no buts. I'll correct your data when I have some time later on. To all other readers, please do not act on dellfrog's post prior to fact checking his assertions. Good stuff.