Member Info for Scot126

23:57
Hi Ibiza28 - PANR will not be purchasing any "assets around Merlin-2". I guarantee it.

I don't for a second think you're trying to mislead readers of your post because your language is both innocent and naive.

The assets around Merlin-2 are located 50-60 miles, repeat 50-60 miles, away from PANR's westernmost boundary. The oil column at Theta West is thought to be 1300ft in length v's <50ft at Merlin-1. I fear you and many others on this forum have ni idea of the true *mathematical* potential of Theta West. How many of you understand that if, and I repeat if, the best case scenario is proven for Theta West, only Prudhoe Bay will be a larger oilfield in the history of the USA. Such a scenario would mean Theta West was in the Top 40 oilfields ever discovered on the planet. Why on earth would PANR purchase any assets around Merlin-2????

I worked in the Aussie market for 6 years. They have a brilliant regulatory system when it comes to corporate actions like fund raises. The company requests a halt in trading of their shares which then allows management to go out into the market to source the funds without having to worry about the rumours which all too often swirl around similar exercises in London. It's a vastly superior regime IMHO.

So the UK and US OTC markets will open as usual for 88E. I wish the UK and US adopted the same rules as the Aussie, but they don't. Hope that helps.

23:40
C'mon Neversatisfied - the "February spud" is there in black and white across multiple RNSs. It's ok to be disappointed but no need to lie to readers of this forum.

Huh - wonder how far over budget Merlin-2 is running now?

No-one out there wondering why it is that Erik Opstad and Dave Wall always make out like bandits and none of the assets are a step closer to commercialisation?

Proof positive of "Enjoy the party but dance close to the exit" ??!!!!

23:11
Have you followed 88E for long, Bonsa????!!!!! Lololololololololololololololololololololololol

More like who won't this company shaft????? Hehehehehe

22:03
Hi Bonsa - before you set off any big booms, or even a sonic boom, answer us this?

What will the impact be on 88E's NPV per barrel in the ground when any potential acquiror of Peregrine/Umiat models the cost of constructing a 97 mile pipeline eastwards to TAPS? At $10m per mile, that's a pretty penny, eh?

What will the impact be on 88E's NPV per barrel in the ground when any potential acquiror of Peregrine/Umiat models the cost of constructing a 20 mile pipeline northwards to Willow and then begins the conversation with the CEO of Conoco about the tariff per barrel they'll levy to use Conoco's infrastructure to transport any crude to Pump Station No1?

What will the impact be on 88E's NPV per barrel in the ground when any potential acquiror of Peregrine/Umiat models the time value of money until first production of commercial crude and cashflows, seeing as even if Merlinb-2 is swimming in light oil, it'll be at least 6-8 years before cash generation?

And finally, when is anyone on this forum going to explain why it is the 88E Board of Directors paid US 1 cent per barrel in the ground for Umiat (just a few miles south of Peregrine, remember?) and yet nearly everyone involved in the 88E social media forums think an entity will soon value that same acreage at 200x, 300x what their own BoD valued the acreage?????
This is all mathematically bonkers.

Enjoy the party, but dance close to the exit!

To Ally and others attempting to map out the likely newsflow schedule:

I realise your programme of workflow will be dependent on whether PANR has a full testing kit and crew at each location or whether both sites are sharing the one piece of kit. The answer is that there's a full testing kit and crew at each site.

I appreciate this is the more expensive option but, in terms of risk management and with an eye on the limited duration of the season the company have, IMHO, made the correct decision. We have seen the *relative* hiatus forced on the company and on the SP by the previous season finishing before the full programme of works could be completed. By having testing equipment and crew on *both* sites simultaneously, the risk of leaving the tundra with unfinished tasks ought to be mitigated. I hope this info helps?

My *personal* view is the company and NOMAD will follow the precedent of last year. Happy to be corrected but the Talitha #A TD RNS came after the wireline logging had been completed and the formal decision taken to go ahead with flow testing. If that precedent is followed, perhaps an RNS stating something similar (hopefully!) in the fisrt half of next week for Theta West.

As for the deeper of the two SFS horizons due to be tested at Talitha? I dunno....maybe end of next week? I'm 100% guesstimating here so please don't misquote me or relay that I'm sure on timing, because I'm not.

16:32
Dead wrong, ShareGuru22. Any oil proven up at Peregrine by Merlin-2 will not be valued anywhere near £2 per barrel in the ground by the equity markets or the industry? Why am I so sure of this? That's a fair question, A combination of learning from history and examining the present.

Umiat has been a stranded asset for 70 years and 88E's own management purchased it for US 1 cent. Peregrine is adjacent to Umiat. Why would Peregrine be any less stranded than Umiat? Therefore why would each barrel in the ground be valued at £2 v's 2 cents?

The NPV of Peregrine/Umiat when assessed by a potential acquiror will incorporate the cost of the infrastructure required to be installed to deliver oil to market, agreed? A pipeline eastwards to TAPS will cost circa US$1bn. A pipeline north to Willow and then transit tariff to use Conoco's pipeline to Deadhorse? $250m for the pipeline plus $5, $10, $15, heck $50 per barrel transported. Conoco can charge what they like for the tariff. Their infrastructure is privately owned. I thought it was only capitalists who are invested in 88E? Conoco has Peregrine/Umiat's economics in the palm of its hands. Conoco controls the success or failure of Peregrine/Umiat and it's waaayyyyy past time fold here admitted it.

£2 per barrel in the ground at Peregrine. Not a chance. Once again, fact check me?

16:01
Hiya ShareGuru22: I'm not entirely convinced you know how the geological CoS number was arrived at, are you. You do realise the 56% guided CoS is made up of the *addition* of the three separate CoS, being 18% + 23% + 25% or some such. Accordingly, I reckon "expecting" is doing quite a bit of work in your post, don't you?

But let's stipulate 88E proves up all 653mmbo, ok? What value will you assign to each of those 653m barrels of oil? I really, really hope you know 88E's own management only paid 1 US cent per barrel when they bought the 100mmbo reserves at Umiat, don't you?

This is a 100% genuine question. Why are you not paying attention to your own management's assessment of the value of recoverable barrels in the Peregrine/Umiat area. Don't just fob this off with a "so what?" retort. Kindly inform this bulletin board why not one barrel of oil has been produced at Umiat since its discovery over 70 years ago? Then tell me why it should be any different for Peregrine v's Umiat?

NB PLease note Brom has not answere4d my question but I note Rabito79 has given it a bash. Any wool falling from people's eyes yet??????

Ally - BFF Lower at Talitha is distal.....on development any production well located there would be drilled in Year 20, not Year 1. OTOH, Theta West is the location of the crest and where the Year 1 production wells will be drilled on development. That's why a successful flow test of the BFF Lower at Theta West is so emphatic when looking at NAV uplift and b) has been derisked hugely by a successful flow test of the same formation 10.5 miles downdip, distal location, right on the very boundary of PANR/GB/eSeis BFF mapping.

There's no getting away from it. Today's news is impactful but the flow test of the BFF Lower at Theta West will be even more so. Versus today's mkt cap, a successful outcome at Theta West in the next 3 weeks could, justifiably, see a mkt cap 2x or 3x today's mkt cap...on the opening that day.

15:49
Hi Squirrel26 - Spock might declare your post, "Entirely logical." Here's why. If an investor/trader was willing to hold PANR shares over the weekend of 5th/6th February, 2022 with the risk of the BFF Lower test success/failure an unknown, then it would make no sense whatsoever not to hold that same instrument up and including the result of the BFF Lower flow test at the crestal location at Theta West.

This morning's news has reduced markedly, IMO, the risk associated with the BFF Lower flow test at Theta West and thus the cost of equity in PANR today, right now, on a risk/reward basis is better at 110p than it was at 82p.

Why do I say this? Many (a majority?) folk looking at PANR don't realise that the flow test of the BFF Lower at Theta West will be testing PANR's thesis that they've unearthed the second or third largest onshore conventional oilfield in American history. In terms of NAV uplift, we are looking at a figure in excess of $5bn ***mathematical uplift in valuation*** on that one flow test to come. today's news from Talitha moves the odds in shareholders' favour of the $5bn NAV uplift coming by the end of this month. $1bn mkt cap now with a >70% chance of an NAV uplift of $5bn within a month? By any measure, those are exceptional odds.

Hiya Brom - thanks for the notes from 2017. Most illuminating. Makes me wonder if 88E handing back all those acreage blocks on the southern boundary of what is now known as Theta West to the State of Alaska in Sept '21 was all that bright? You'll no doubt be happy that PANR picked them all up in the auction in November '21.

I hope you weren't posting those notes from 2017 in order to give the impression that 88E management knew what they had on their hands 5 years ago. Handing back all those blocks in Q3 last year would appear to be a very odd way to explot that supposed knowledge, wouldn't it?

Now that you're here, Brom, why not help your fellow 88E shareholders/traders by answering the following multiple choice question? Dear Brom, do you assess 88E owns
a) <4% of the combined Alkaid/Talitha/Theta West/Project Icewine by value?
b) <7% of the combined Alkaid/Talitha/Theta West/Project Icewine by value?
c) <10% of the combined Alkaid/Talitha/Theta West/Project Icewine by value?

Many thanks in anticipation. I know you'll wish to answer honestly and swiftly as it's never been your intention to mislead the readers of your posts nor your fellow 88E shareholders. Good stuff.

12:55
Hi Metalbasher - simply not true, no basis in fact. 88E's Merlin-2 is located approximately 90 miles west of Talitha. Merlin-2 and the BFF Lower at Talitha are two completely different formations and thus success or failure in one has zero, zilch, nada, no effect on the probability of success of the other. Trust that helps?

Speaking of Chance of Success......we know the GEOLOGICAL CoS for Merlin-2 is 56%, as guided by 88E management. In comparison, PANR's GEOLOGICAL CoS was already guided at 100% even prior to today's news.

Of course, the GEOLOGICAL CoS is then multiplied by the Chance of Development Success to give the overall Cos for the project.

Let's look at Merlin-2 and thus Peregrine/Umiat, from the standpoint of total CoS for the entire project.

56% (geological CoS) x 40% (explained below) = 22.4% v's PANR's 100% x 70% = 70%

Hmmmm, why have I applied a development CoS of only 40% for Peregrine/Umiat? Well, there's the history of Umiat's 100mmbo of crude oil reserves remaining stranded since its discovery in the 1940s. For those who don't know, Umiat has been a stranded asset for 70 years or so because there is no infrastructure on the surface to transport the crude to market. It's so entirely stranded that 88E management only paid $1m to acquire Umiat, pretty cheap eh? We also know it's entirely dependent on Conoco's Willow project and/or the construction of a 97 mile pipeline to the east to link up with TAPS.

Logic leaves an analyst with no other choice but to attach a lower chance of development success for Peregrine/Umiat than that guided at Alkaid/Talitha/Theta West. Prior to today's news from PANR, their Technical Director assessed the chance of development success as being "between 60 and 70%". I've moved the number in my model from 65% to 70% today. Why 40% for Peregrine/Umiat's chance of development success? I know, 40% is pretty high when you consider how expensive it will be to bring Peregrine/Umiat on to production. plus the 70 years of inaction points to a lower CoS but it still leaves Peregrine/Umiat with only a 22.4% overall CoS v's PANR's 70%.

Layer on that PANR owns 90% of the new oilfield v's 88E's 10% and something is going to have to give. Mathematically, it simply must.

And before the next wave of whingers have a go at me, think on this. It is an acknowledged *fact* PANR and 88E share an asset. Therefore analysts in banks and hedge funds will be undertaking an exercise in comparative analysis right now. I know this because I used to do this as part of my career in the equity markets, starting in 1994. If anyone on this forum thinks the mispricing is going to stay this way into perpetuity, you're in for a massive shock.

Please fact check me on any of the above.

10:51
Hi Howey1927 - remarkable absence of fact-checking challenges being issued. I wonder why?

I repeat the following (inexplicable on fundamentals, explicable on OTC punter hype and misinformation): right now, you can buy 10% of a new conventional oilfield in America for £370m. You can also, right this minute buy 90% of that exact same oilfield for £800m.

The probability of this mispricing continuing into perpetuity? Nil. Zero. No chance.

Dear All - please find below the first pass reaction from WH Ireland, dated 7/2/22. Good stuff.

Pantheon Resources (PANR) - Corporate - Flow Testing of Lower Basin Floor Fan

Market Cap £612.5m Share Price 82p

Pantheon Resources announced that the Lower Basin Floor Fan has been flow tested at the Talitha #A well at an average rate of 73 b/d over a three day test period. The oil is of a 35-39° API weight. The well was tested over three intervals (10 feet perforations) that were individually fractured and tested. The company indicated that the well's bottom hole pressure was near to reservoir pressure on the final day of testing.

WHI View: The Talitha #A well location is in a downdip/distal or suboptimal location. The purpose of the test was fundamentally to confirm that the reservoir was productive to the extent that i) the oil was mobile in the reservoir and ii) the downhole reservoir pressure would be sufficient to move the oil up the wellbore. We believe that in respect of those test objectives the test has been an unambiguous success. Intuitively, we believe the absolute value of the flow test (73b/d) is impressive, as is the minimal pressure drawdown.

The Lower Basin Floor Fan is, by far, the company's single largest resource, with a best estimate recoverable resource of 1.2 billion barrels of oil. Our success case fair value estimate equates to $4.80/b (after-tax), equating to a value of $5.8 billion. The company indicated that further testing will be required to fully prove up / confirm the resource, albeit, we believe, today's news represents a significant step forwards.

Today's news will focus attention on the Theta West #1 well that will be testing the same structure (and the Upper BFF) in an optimal location 10.5 miles to the northeast - a colossal step out well.

Today's news is truly, in our opinion, a very exciting development and we anticipate a very positive share price reaction. We note that the sector backdrop for the oil & gas sector is exceptionally supportive.

Part 2

Valuation, target price and rating

Today's announcement is just the first of a number over the next 6+ months related
to the testing of Talitha #A and the drilling and possible testing of Theta West #1
and Alkaid #2. While it is a good start, there is plenty to do to confirm the scale and potential commerciality of the discoveries made so far. Ideally, the results from the whole programme should be viewed in their totality, but undoubtedly the drilling and possible test results from Theta West #1 will be a key part of the whole 2022 operational plan.

We maintain our 220p target price and our SPECULATIVE BUY rating.

Dear All - please find below the first pass reaction from Canaccord, dated 7/2/22. Good stuff.

Very encouraging start to Talitha testing

Canaccord Genuity view

Talitha #A Basin Floor Fan reservoir flows high quality oil

The first result is in from the wide-ranging operations programme on the company's
100% held licences onshore Alaska, and Pantheon has made a very good start. The
first of three planned well tests in the Talitha #A well produced average 73 bopd light oil (over three days) from the Basin Floor Fan (BFF). Pantheon's definition pre-test of success for the BFF, as it is for the upcoming Slope Fans test, was to produce 'moveable, good quality' oil. That has been achieved.

This is very encouraging especially as Talitha #A, a vertical well drilled in Q1 21, was located sub-optimally for BFF evaluation. Further work is required to evaluate the likely productivity from a potential horizontal development well at this location.

The Theta West #1 well, which is specifically targeting the BFF, is being drilled some 10+miles to the north-west of Talitha #A. Pantheon anticipates a much thicker reservoir interval and at a shallower depth at Theta West #1 than at Talitha #A, and that could mean substantially better reservoir parameters.

While this first test result in Talitha #A looks to be a good initial step towards establishing the potential for the commerciality of the BFF in this area, there is still much to be done before that can be confirmed. The next important data point will be results from Theta West #1 which is on track to reach total depth (TD) imminently.

BFF Test details

Zones: Three zones, each of 10 ft thickness within the Lower BFF, over a total gross 370ft vertical section, have been stimulated and flows from each have been commingled.

Results: Over a three-day test period these zones produced 73 bopd light oil (c.35-39 API) with a sustained rate of 40 bopd on the final day. The company believes that the pressure data recorded supports the view that these later flow test rates are indicative of the production potential of this reservoir at this location in a vertical well.

Near term plans

Talitha #A testing: The company plans to test the Slope Fans reservoir next. Oil was identified in this interval and Pantheon intends to stimulate and test across two reservoir zones. We would expect results in the next 10-14 days.

Theta West -1 drilling: Pantheon has stated that the well is expected to reach TD within the next 24 hours or so. Following that we would anticipate a comprehensive electric wireline logging programme to be conducted, with a decision on possible testing to follow.

Part 1......part 2 to follow above

09:43
chrisev1 - see that's the thing, it's you who has been lied to. Do you agree with Keefy that the lion's share of the combined resource in the Central Blocks is on the southern side of the border? C'mon, do you seriously expect me to accept that you genuinely believe that to be the case? No chance, you're far too bright for that.

Yep, I'm happy to level the charge of lying to anyone who disseminates the outright lie that 88E possesses the lion's share or anything more than a small portion of the combined resource at Alkaid/Talitha/Theta West/Project Icewine.

To all the folk honest enough to admit you're here for the "US OTC sentiment/hype trade", please mull on my warning. PANR is just about to receive an avalanche of attention from hedge funds and investors around the world. If you think for a moment a professional hedge fund dude sitting in Connecticut is going to look at the maps and think 88E is the one to go for then you've rocks in your head. The 88E US OTC trade has today become *more* risky, not less.

As for the rest of the whingers, dry your eyes. Your pathway to fleecing thousands of ill-educated US punters has just become more risky. Tough. The good news is that I've highlighted, repeatedly, how you can remain in the game by backing the stronger of the investment cases by sticking to the fundamentals.

09:19
.......and what do you think the price of oil is going to do if Russia does invade Ukraine, beechknot?

Go practise your trading pseudo-psychology some place else. The PANR shareholder base is on the more educated and sophisticated end of the private client spectrum. Fact.

Just wait 'til the Yanks wake up to this news today. You ain't seen noting yet.

Right, enough of the lying.

In PANR's recent webinar, there's a map of the acreage which displays the "overlap" as PANR management understand it. If anyone here thinks that map displays a majority of an oilfield or formation on the southern line of the boundary then you need to head to Specsavers immediately.

Today, 88E's mkt cap is circa £370m and PANR's is circa £790m. I happen to analyse 88E will own c.5% of the total shared resource by value but let's be generous and stipulate 88E owns 10% of the value of Alkaid/Talitha/Theta West.

Right now, right this minute, you can buy 10% of a massive new conventional oilfield near existing infrastructure in Alaska for £370m. You can also, right this minute, buy 90% of that same new oilfield for £790m.

You're all capable of arithmetic, aren't you?

I "get" the "I'm trading the OTC punters' excitement and don't care about the actual facts of the investment case" trade, I really do. but there is now an increased risk the 88E bubble will pop BEFORE any results arrive from Merlin-2 because there's now going to be regional, national and international focus on PANR. And these hedge funds and other financial institutions are going to quickly work out that PANR is undervalued and 88E is overvalued.

But you don't have to believe me, just listen to the PANR webinar dated 24/1/22 and look at the map on PANR's website => investors => presentations => AGM presentation, page 22.

09:14
C'mon James007xo - PANR has >17bbo OIP, 1.9bbo contingent resource, 2.2bbo recoverable resource and you're thinking an £800m mkt cap is expensive? Are you barmy? Oil search paid $3.10 per contingent barrel in the ground in Q3 '17 when the POO was $55.

The PANR Alaska journey is just beginning. Mark my words. If, and I repeat if, management's geological model is proven in full (and so far, it's better then expected) then PANR's mkt cap will be >10x today's level. The maths don't lie.

Buckle up, folks, it's really happening!!!!

A reminder. The BFF Lower is, in Jay Heather's words, the Big Kahuna. If it flowed light, sweet crude 10+ miles from the sweet spot, just imagine what it'll do at Theta West.