Member Info for Scot126

17:24
Hi marlbs - spot on.

FYI, equity analysts won't even add a row in the spreadsheet of their 88E financial model to take account of the 4% ORRI payment. The reason? Because there is no discernible sign of any oil being produced at Umiat at present, and looking out into the forecast period (the future years of the financial model).

None of you, even the fearsomely prolific Brom, can point me to a legally permitted and fully-financed plan to construct a 97 mile pipeline to TAPS.

None of you, even the fearsomely prolific Brom, can point me to a legally permitted and fully-financed plan to construct a pipeline north to Willow and a signed contract with Conoco to transport any oil produced at Umiat/Peregrine to pump Station No 1.

Ask yourselves why 88E was able to buy 100m of reserves for US$1m? Because it's been a hopelessly stranded asset for 70 years and there is no evidence that 88E is capable of making it "unstranded" any time soon.

18:21
Brom - that's the first time in a while you've seriously overstepped the mark ethically and morally. Direct question for you, Brom. What is the ***earliest*** year you have in your 88E model which sees them paying the the Umait vendor its first royalty payment?

Canaccord first pass, dated 15/2/22.

Theta West #1 well reaches total depth, now moving to testing.

Thick, hydrocarbon filled reservoir:
The Theta West #1 well has found c.1,160 gross feet hydrocarbon reservoir across the combined Upper and Lower Basin Floor Fan (BFF) and the early data indicates improved reservoir parameters compared with those at Talitha #A.

This is a very encouraging start to the data collection at this site, confirming the presence of hydrocarbons and a thick reservoir. That is a basis for some optimism but the flow test results remain the critical element required to assess better the potential commerciality of the discovery. Pantheon has indicated flow tests will be made across both reservoir intervals over the coming weeks.

Challenging conditions limit data collection:
Data collection has been impeded by two problems: the extremely cold weather conditions (equipment failures and personnel outdoor operational limitations); and well-bore problems above the reservoir zone (which meant it was not possible to acquire sidewall cores or open hole wire line logging data).

However, key reservoir parameter and hydrocarbon indications have been acquired through Logging While Drilling (LWD), and that combined with ancillary data including gas chromatograph and VAS samples, is sufficient for the company to interpret light oil filled reservoir in the upper and lower BFF sections.

Casing ahead of testing:
Sensibly, rather than persevere with wire line logging attempts in these very difficult conditions, Pantheon is moving to run casing to total depth (TD) to preserve the well bore for the testing operations. We anticipate the full testing operations to extend into March.

Theta West #1 well details:
The well found the reservoir largely as anticipated, though unsurprisingly given the 10+ mile exploration step-out to the Talitha #A location the details are a little different from those anticipated pre-drill.

The well reached TD at 8,450 ft compared with pre-drill anticipated TD of 9,200 ft.  

Reservoir information:
Upper BF: Encountered between 6,800-7,000 ft. The top of the UBFF, was about 1,500 ft higher than at Talitha #A.
Lower BFF: Encountered between 7,450-8,410 feet.
A total BFF reservoir thickness of 1,160 ft compared with pre-drill estimate 1,300 feet. 

Valuation, target price and rating:
This is an encouraging start for Pantheon at Theta West. The result validates the company's interpretation of the geological potential of the area and verifies the presence of thick hydrocarbon filled reservoir. But it does not yet confirm the scale or commerciality of the find. The next key step in that evaluation will be the flow test results in the BFF over the coming weeks.

We maintain our 220p target price and our SPECULATIVE BUY rating.

Analyst reaction from WH Ireland, dated 15/2/22.

"Pantheon Resources (PANR) – Corporate – Theta West #1 Drilling Completed

Market Cap £929m Share Price 124.4p

Pantheon Resources announced that it has completed drilling operations at the Theta West #1 well having reached a total depth in line with expectations (8,450 feet). The company indicated that it acquired good data via the logging while drilling tool and that it collected drill cuttings for Volatile Analysis (by AHS/Baker Hugues). The company indicated that extremely cold conditions (-55°C with wind chill) prevented open hole wireline logging and coring.

The company indicated that it is now casing the well and that it will be flow tested (LBFF and UBFF) over the coming weeks.

WHI View: We believe the suite of logs from the logging while drilling tool will be of a high quality and really cover the key data points one would hope to acquire from a well (resistivity, gamma ray, neutron density & formation density). The volatile analysis will be key and much more important than coring would have been given the scale of the vertical column that must be tested – 1,160 feet of gross hydrocarbon section was confirmed by the well.

The results, we believe, confirm pre-drill expectations: The reservoir is of a superior quality than at the Talitha #A location and was 1,500 feet structurally higher (updip) than at Talitha #A. The top of the reservoir (UBFF) was 150’ higher than anticipated, which we believe provides confidence in the geological model and seismic – remember this was drilled 10.5 miles to the northwest of Talitha #A – so quite accurate in our opinion, which is important given the enormity of the resource means confidence in the seismically-derived volumetrics is key.

In conclusion: We believe the results announced today are very encouraging. The geological model works, the oil is there, the structures conform with expectations and the reservoir is better than at Talitha #A, as expected."

17:15
muscat - I'm feeling generous today, even more generous than normal! I have an offer to make to you. I'll engage with you and the points you list in your post timed at 17:15 from a PANR standpoint if you firstly make the exact same points to the 88E forum on this website. By any objective analysis, any at all, the points you make in your post are more applicable to the 88E investment case then to PANR's.

Let me know how you get on?

16:02
Hi marlbs - I wasn't being obtuse or evasive when I replied to you with the following question: "how much did it cost 88E to complete the required engineering programme on the two abandoned wells as per the agreement?"

Let me know if you require any assistance with the maths once you read up on the answer to that question?

15:43
Hi marlbs - how much did it cost 88E to complete the required engineering programme on the two abandoned wells as per the agreement?

4% royalty is there.....but does the intelligent man not see 70 years of nil production and then wonder what's different this time?????

Thanks for asking the question though. You're the first one to engage on the facts. Good stuff.

14:56
You're kidding aren't you, muscat? Google "Permian Basin 2021 Pioneer Conoco Northern Oil and Gas Continental Resources", lol.

14:13
Not so, Metalbasher. People invest in placings to make a return. It doesn't make the placees "numpty 's" [sic], just folk looking to make money.

Please understand the following. I have nothing to say to the traders who are simply playing the OTC hype game of pass the parcel. It's not how I choose to make money because it means taking advantage of thousands of credulous innocents who have gullibly believed the rubbish disseminated by these social media "influencers".

What I am seeking to do is to reach any investors who read this forum in order to disabuse them of the outright lies, the obfuscation, the epic gilding of the lily, the intentional and non-intentional "DD" out there. And for those who recognise that shared assets means comparative analysis is applicable, to highlight the market's truly quite dramatic mispricing of the joint owners of that asset.

Now forget all this "playing the man" nonsense and come back at me with fact checks? Prove me wrong? I want to be corrected if I'm wrong. Don't you?

06:32
Hello again Rktech - feel free to call my content a "rant" if you wish. It doesn't delegitimise the pertinence of the questions I pose. And if you think for even a millisecond that the questions I have posed aren't being asked by O&G analysts in investment banks and institutions then you have no idea about the equity markets. I speak with certainty on the relevance of these questions because I worked in those environments for 24 years. Fact.

"His facts or whatever are based on the nominal value of something placed on an asset by some creative accounting beancounter." Lololololol, that made me laugh. You've been watching too many episodes of Billions, Rktech! You may not like it but it is a fact that 88E bought Umiat for the equivalent of US$0.01 per reserve barrel in the ground. Try harder not to disseminate disinformation, Rktech. It's right there in black and white, in an RNS written by 88E management, dated 11/1/21. It doesn't matter how much you whinge and whine, denigrate my character, etc, etc, the fact remains that 88E bought each reserve barrel in the ground at Umiat at 1c.

"Simple logic dictates that if the values he ascribes were true then the market has been well and truly fooled on a grand scale to then attribute the Mcap it has to a company with no oil and a finite COS on the Merlin2 drill." Bravo, now you're getting closer to the truth. Please note that I have never argued Peregrine doesn't have oil within its acreage. Nope, rather I have argued consistently and unwaveringly that the lack of infrastructure to bring any oil produced there to market means that the NPV per barrel at Umiat/Peregrine is close to worthless unless a) 88E works out how to finance and build a 97 miles pipeline east to TAPS or b) comes to an agreement with Conoco on linking up with their (delayed) Willow infrastructure.

None of the social media "influencers", not Kate, not Geodes, not Steve, not Brom, not jofhoggit, not Ddraig....none of them has come up with an answer to these questions. Does no-one wonder why 88E management has never released any guidance on NPVs for Peregrine/Umiat? I'll tell you why, shall I? It's because the 88E bubble would burst that very day.

The 88E SP is being driven by thousands of diamond handed ingenues, filled with the hope of fulfilling their American dream by way of an organised social media game of pass the parcel. The parcel in this case is 88E shares, and when the music stops these unsophisticated and credulous US OTC punters will be left holding over-valued paper.

The thing is, folk like Brom and jofhobbit know this. folk like Dave Wall and Erik Opstad know this. Heck, the 88E BoD know this. Why else would they divert a single minute of their time or a dollar of shareholder funds looking at a Texas asset if they knew Peregrine was going to deliver a *fundamental* uplift to 88E NAV?

23:09
Hi Howey1927 - ref. your none too bright response to the Rktech-Scot126 communication......jeepers, don't know how to say this nicely......do you always have difficulty discerning sarcasm or just sometimes?

Whilst I'm truly humbled by your continuing focus on the anonymous human being behind the Scot126 moniker, you'd be far better served concentrating that fine intellect of yours on the facts of the two investment cases.

I note you opted not to delve any deeper into the proportions of the shared reservoir(s) North and South of the boundary line? Why was that? Do you not have the faintest idea what they may be? Do you not care two hoots about the respective proportions of reservoir ownership? Or do you have a pretty good idea and you don't wish to highlight the probable proportions because the vast majority lie North of the boundary?

My opinion? 88E will have less than 10% of the shared crude oil by volume and less than 5% by NAV.

FWIW I have precisely zero against Merlin-2. I think Dave and Erik are fleecing you all but, let's be blunt, none of you appear to give two hoots about corporate governance! I 100% hope Merlin-2 is a startling success.

Still leaves me with that series of questions which not one member of this forum wishes discussed out in the open. What value to place on a barrel of recoverable oil found in Peregrine? The 88E BoD paid US 1c for an Umiat barrel - fact. Why will a Peregrine barrel be any less stranded? You could have discovered a trillion barrels of oil and it would be worth hee-haw if you can't produce it and sell it.

Have no fear, the US OTC punters will buy any old made up rubbish you're selling though, won't they Howey1927? Shameful.

21:13
Hi JEZZAC - thank you for your delightfully warm post timed at 21:13. Just a quick reply to say you're factually incorrect.

19:38
Aye, maybe so welshy88.

Something occurred to me as I was reading your reply. Isn't it odd that no-one mentions the poor sod(s) who bought $EEENF at US9c per share last year? What about those people? Filled with nonsense and cruel, false hope by social media influencers, the fintwitterati and prolific posters on bulletin boards.

I totally "get" that you're just going to trade the hype, welshy88. That's why in my initial post I suggested it ought to be read by "investors" rather than traders. I appreciate the facts and truth of the 88E investment case is of no interest to many users of this forum. However, there are some who do indeed class themselves as investors and it is to those individuals I address these posts today.

FWIW, I also 100% accept that whilst fleecing thousands of credulous US OTC punters goes against my personal conscience, my values are not shared by everybody. But it's a bit rum that folk accuse me of some sort of nefarious conduct when they don't give a monkeys about the US citizens they hope and expect to fleece over the coming days/weeks? Seeking the truth and facts is positively saintly compared to the morals required to relish conning the rubes out of their dollars.

Yeah, yeah, yeah....caveat emptor, blah, blah, blah. Try googling "Alex Delarge" and "Steven Gallacher" for a nasty shock. And yes, he did tweet about 88E last year. Fact.

18:01
Thanks Rktech for that awesome fact-led and detailed reply to my totally standard questions, questions which have been posed by equity market professionals all around the world for at least a century.

Where exactly do you understand my logic to be flawed? The fact 88E paid US 1 cent per reserve barrel in the ground for Umiat? That's an easy fact to look up. Go back to the acquisition RNS dated 11/1/21 and have a quick read?

Between 11/1/21 and today, has the price of constructing a 97 mile oil pipeline reduced from $10m per mile to $100 per mile? Nope.

Has Conoco's Willow proceeded on plan, on schedule and on budget? Nope. Delayed by two years according to the Alaskan regional press.

Has Conoco elected to voluntarily construct a pipeline south of Willow to Peregrine at nil cost to 88E? Nope.

Has Conoco notified 88E, the other owners of the shared pipeline to Pump Station No 1 and the Alaskan regulators that they've agreed an ultra-low tariff per barrel for any oil produced at Umiat/Peregrine in the future? Nope, no sign of that either.

Therefore, has there been one scrap of evidence to suggest that Peregrine, even if successful geologically, won't be a stranded asset (just like Umiat has been for 70 years) and worth a cent or ten cents per barrel in the ground? Nope, not even the merest sliver of new news on that front. No evidence for that hope, none, nada, zilch, zero.

The MoU with Lonestar.

Clever step by management IMHO. They recognise 88E's paper is waaaaayyyyyy over-valued on the fundamentals so best use it asap as currency to acquire cashflow for the future. Fine, I get it, I can see the logic, no issue whatsoever.

Just one more thing........as a rather dishevelled US detective might say. Having been 'in the room' as an advisor on deals like this (NB not as a director of a company, as an advisor only) there is no way on earth, no way on the planet that any CEO or FD capable of even the most rudimentary maths would buy cashflow using paper (a company's shares) at 2.5p (say) when they knew in 6-8 weeks time the Merlin-2 well would be proving up 650mmbo at Peregrine, which would then see professional institutional investors ***or the O&G sector*** clamouring to buy that asset. How come? Because until the cost of a 97 mile US$1bn) pipeline to TAPS is financed (by whom? 88E shareholders???????!!!!! do any of you really believe that?) or Conoco has agreed to a cut price tariff to access its infrastructure then instos and the O&G corporates will immediately work out Peregrine/Umiat is as stranded and as useless (financially-speaking) as the last remaining dodo.

Fact check me? Refute my logic? Ask yourself why none of the prolific posters slap me down using intellect rather then slurs about my mental health? I'll give you a hint. They don't because they can't.

Another hint? The 88E BoD is looking to buy cashflow before the US OTC punters realise the emperor isn't wearing any clothes.

This post is addressed to any investors who follow this forum. I fully admit and accept the "musical chairs traders" and "sell before the music stops" types will be intellectually uninterested in the point I'm trying to advance.

Ok, here's the scenario. Merlin-2 is a massive success, yipee! All 652mmbo are proven in just one magical drill, and in fact scot126 clicks his fingers and turns them from 652mmbo of recoverable resources to 652mmbo of *reserves*. For the purposes of this post, I'm happy to stipulate this scenario has now happened. In fact, readers can even imagine I'm writing this post at the beginning of May '22. Ok?

How should the market, and indeed the O&G industry value those 652mmbo reserves? This is incontrovertibly a fair and reasonable question to pose.

Let's look at recent precedent of analogue reservoirs. Well, it turns out 88E's own BoD valued the 100mmbo reserves at Umiat (adjoining the southern boundary of Peregrine) at precisely US$0.01 per reserve barrel in the ground. Fact. Applying that same value (which the 88E BoD signed off on remember just a year or two ago) and there's an uplift of US$6.52m coming 88E's way!! Fantastic news surely? Hmmm....maybe not, that's nay much.

Ok, tell you what, let's say that because Peregrine is a few miles north and a few miles east of Umiat (and thus just that little bit closer to TAPS and Willow), let's say a reserve barrel in the ground is worth 5x what a reserve barrel in the ground at Umiat was valued at....by the 88E BoD remember? So that's 652m x US$0.05 = US$32.6m uplift to NAV? Wait a minute, that's a bit miserly isn't it? Let's say a reserve barrel of oil in the ground at Peregrine is worth a massive *10x* what a reserve barrel was valued by 88E management at just a few months ago, so it's US$0.10 per barrel, thus Peregrine is worth US$65.2m.

That is an excellent return for the acquisition price plus the cost of Merlin-1 + Merlin-2........isn't it? Hmmmm, that doesn't feel right either, does it? The drills cost, what, $28m each? And the acquisition was how much? Well, I guess it's more or less washed its face, hasn't it? And Erik and Dave have made a mint in fees and share sales so all is good, right?

So the most obvious way of blowing my cynicism out the water is to say that any and all Peregrine barrels in the ground are worth waaaayyyyyy more than US$0.10, correct? I agree. Mathematically that is undoubtedly the best way to rebut my point. So, we need to make a case for any barrels of oil in the ground being worth multiples of 10c, heck multiple dollars per barrel are required to make the Project financially cogent? True?

Thus, my question to all 88E "investors" is to kindly, and being 100% genuine, explain to me and other interested readers how it is anyone (including the 88E BoD remember) can reasonably conclude a barrel in the ground at Peregrine, even if proven up this winter, is worth any more than a few cents per barrel?

100% genuine question.

Now then, don't know about you but I kinda understood why many posters on this forum and the self-styled 88E Army on Twitter/stocktwits made such a hullabaloo about contractors being paid in shares last year, H1 '21 for Merlin-1. [As an aside, ELKO sold all their shares like grease lightening last year. I can't be the only person on the planet wondering what they're done this year with their alloted shares? ]

Anyhoo, as I said, I kinda "got" why it was fairly easy to put a positive spin on that narrative. The question I have is whether the corollary is true too? Will there be an equal and opposite reaction from posters here, and the 88E social media army, when they read that such a rumoured "shares for services" deal is NOT now going ahead?

Hmmm.....let's see if there's any such consistency in approach, shall we? What data have the contractors seen for Merlin-2 which means they don't fancy shares this year and wish cash instead? Huh, interesting, isn't it?

Oh, and isn't it just heavenly that Dave Wall's Inyati Capital gets 6% on monies raised? Warms the ****les of my heart, really does. As I wrote last week, Erik Opstad and Dave Wall are lining up to have another lucrative drilling season. Unlike regular 88E shareholders, they're winners if the drill succeeds or fails, or if Peregrine remains a stranded asset like Umiat for the next 70 years. Shameful.

Enjoy the party but dance close to the exit.

21:56
r "the gas man" farfa - "Plus the main problem causing the delay of further testing was the line wire becoming stuck, as did our neighbours, which could be possible that we were both drilling the same geology.
School for thought as they say!"

scot126 - factually incorrect. You're welcome.

07:09
Hi Brom - if the fund raise was "expected" then it's odd you haven't devoted more of your nearly 26,000 posts on 88E to the subject, especially over recent days?

While I've got you, the forum is still waiting for you to end all the nonsense promulgated by the likes of Keeley (and others on social media) that the lion's share of the reservoirs at Alkaid/Talitha/Theta West/Icewine are on the northern side of the boundary, not the southern. You must have forgotten to answer the simple multiple choice question I posed to you earlier??!!

You're a prolific poster, Brom. You've informed this forum previously management are very prompt when applying to your queries, correct? Have you asked them when it was Merlin-2 went from "fully-funded" to not being "fully-funded"? As an attentive shareholder, I'm certain you'll wish that question answered, won't you?

ELKO and Inyati Capital look set for another bumper season!

If the UK and Aussie shareholders don't demand an immediate disclosure of the costs thus far and future budget for Merlin-2 (including snow road construction, Brom!!!!) then there's not an investor amongst you. A failure to demand such a report from your employees would mean you're all admitting to be traders of a "meme stock", not investors.

I'd also demand to know if Erik's contracting company has already sold stock with cash sitting in the lawyer's trust account.

Also, what are Erik's invoices like thus far v's budget????

00:02
*porkies, not parties.

No worries, Neversatisfied. I'll just call you a purveyor of porkies instead.

Everyone else - have a read of the RNSs dated 26/10/21, 24/11/21, 6/12/21 and 17/1/22. Either you're telling parties about there being no delay or you can't read. Which is it?