Member Info for Scot126

Fri 21:28
rfarfa - the answer is really simple. Bit sad also, I'd suggest. The answer is finance and politics.

The Alaskan political class don't want to fund the construction of a gas pipeline from SoA coffers and future budgets because they fear they'll be voted out by an angry electorate.

Alaska's complacent/ill-informed/wilfully selfish electorate has grown used to the annual Permanent Fund Dividend. As a collective, they do not appear to have made the intellectual link between forgoing some/all of that annual dividend for a short period in order to invest in long term infrastructure which, in turn, will assist Alaskans to thrive for the next 50 odd years.

The natural resource companies and infrastructure owners are not keen to invest their own capital when neither the State nor Federal governments can give them the long term legal/financial commitments necessary to underwrite such huge capital funding requirements. Thus their management teams and BoDs will not make the decisions you demand for fear of their shareholders chucking them out of their job.

I fear it's yet another classic example of political ineptitude. It also proves for the umpteenth time that "the people get the government they deserve". [Pres. Harry Truman]

I've crossed swords with you on this matter many times, rfarfa. For the record, I 100% accept gas is present in the ANS. I also 100% support gas production as a cleaner form of hydrocarbon usage for the planet. The trouble is that you point blank refuse to accept that the equity markets historically have not, do not and will not place *any value whatsoever* on massive gas discoveries until a pathway to market is designed, passes *all* legal and environmental obstacles and its financing is *fully underwritten*. I know this as a fact, rfarfa, because I used to be one of those guys in the market whose job it was to arrive at valuations for these types of listed companies. No matter how many times you post your support of gas extraction on the North Slope, it won't add a bean of value to the likes of 88E or the NN until the pathway to market has been agreed and funded. At *that* moment, I will 100% be *delighted* to place a value on the gas in 88E's and the NN's acreage. Until that point, it's worth zilch as far as professional equity investors are concerned.

Trust that helps.

More to follow over the weekend concerning the 88E Annual Report.

Thu 21:35
sittingbush - I don't think manpower is the issue, more like availability of the necessary specialised equipment.

*Opinion* - I reckon news more likely to be towards the end of next week, but I stress it's a guesstimate only. All very exciting though, isn't it?

marmaris - did the video bring back chilly memories of Siberia???

Ah, I see. I'm afraid it wasn't obvious, to me anyway. One of those cases when the written word doesn't convey tone. Good stuff.

C'mon theiceberg, you must surely know the rules? Material "new news" has to be released via RNS. Thus there cannot be "another two minutes".

All we can discern is steady as she goes, all on schedule as per most recent RNS guidance. Nothing more, nothing less.

I'm happy with that. And FWIW I thought the video was excellent.

08:17
C'mon metalbasher, that's just not true, is it? Yes, there has been scepticism about 88E's operations this season from quite a few posters including me. However that scepticism has centred around flow testing, not the actual drilling or logging.

I "get" the emotional desire to lash out but there's no need for revisionism. FWIW, I will be delighted to read any flow test results from 88E this season. However it remains my *belief* at time of writing that no flow tests will be undertaken at Merlin-2 this season.

Something strikes me as rather strange. Repeatedly, we've been assured that 88E (and this forum) doesn't only attract traders but investors too. Correct? And yet no-one on this forum wishes to discuss the house broker's incredibly low commercial Chance of Success as published in their latest research note. Strange, very strange. Head in the sand much?

Huh, that's odd. No mention whatsoever of "flow testing should logs suggest it appropriate".

Management must have forgotten about flow testing, or something.....

Tues 23:23
Reaper007 - instead of finding another post similar to your own which seeks to pooh-pooh Rabito79's factually correct post, how about you answer my questions?

I challenge you directly, Reaper007 and Arktus1970, to prove Rabito79 wrong. Hell, prove me wrong too, that would surely be fun, wouldn't it? Why not tell ***all*** the users of this forum where Rabito79 has got it wrong? Refer us all to a specific paragraph in a specific RNS? Refer us all to a specific page in a specific presentation?

You won't, Reaper007, because you can't. Fact.

You don't believe a word you post, do you Reaper007? You're just looking to play this drilling season's version of pass the parcel, aren't you? Why not admit it like Ecugold? Why not admit that 88E is no longer attached to any fundamentals and is now a "meme stock" only?

FWIW, I "get" the plan to play pass the parcel and spike the US OTC punters. There, I said it. I "get" it. What I beleive to be reprehensible is the continuous posting not only of untruths, but knowingly doing so in order to take advantage of other human beings' naïve credulity. Shameful.

Reaper007 and all other readers - I hope you all realise that it's 88E which is not using industry standard guidance. Look it up yourselves, you don't have to believe me or Rabito79.

Look up the difference between Mean estimates (88E style) and P50 estimates (nearly everyone else). See how the outsized top end of the mean calculation has a larger impact on the Mean estimates.

Also, not one of you, not one, none of you have bothered to even discuss the latest Cenkos research note and the commercial CoS. Ok, if every single person using this forum are traders AND hoping to bait more credulous idiots (chiefly US OTC punters) so they can profit from their ignorance then I guess it's at least logical that posts like Reaper's timed at Tue 23:23 are written and posted?

If there is even one member of this forum who genuinely views themselves as an investor rather than a trader, please at least fact check me?

1) Look up the difference between Pmean, P50 and Best estimates within an E&P context. Then ask yourself why it is 88E uses Pmean v's the higher standard statistic of P50?

2) Ask the prolific posters on this forum to inform you of Cenkos' latest research. Specifically, ask them why Cenkos calculates the commercial CoS as being so dreadfully low. Then ask yourself if you've been lied to by all the ill-educated at best, criminal at worst, social media "influencers"? I'll help. You've been lied to and you're being lied to by these people.

08:02 and Mon 16:32
Hi Reaper007 - what pitiful codswallop you post. Do you actually believe what you posted or was it simply a panicked attempt to mollify the credulous cult that 'there's nothing to see here, move along now'?

Rabito79's points are accurate. I challenge you directly, Reaper007, to provide the source document (RNS, presentation slides, etc) which proves Rabito79 was inaccurate.

Hint for everyone else? He won't because he can't. The article in question was beautifully written. It was also fantastical, factually inaccurate, ill-informed, florid and written with zero appreciation, repeat zero, that before oil in the ground attains any fundamental value for shareholders, management must show how it can be extracted and brought to market profitably.

There is a reason 88E's own BoD was able to buy Umiat and its 100mmbo reserves for 1 cent per barrel in the ground. The market and the oil industry don't value stranded assets....and they certainly don't value barrels in the ground without firstly taking into consideration the time and capital required before first commercial oil is produced.

In 88E's case capex required will be billions of dollars and at least 7-8 years away *even if* Merlin-2 is a complete success. Why else do you think 88E management has just bought a tiny income stream in Texas in order to pay their salaries?

I note Brom and the other prolific posters haven't remarked on Cenkos' commercial CoS in their latest research note? Hmmm........I wonder why that hasn't been highlighted?

Think.

Enjoy the party but dance close to the exit....but the music isn't quite as loud as last year, is it? Lack of first time buyers or folk getting wise that the social media "influencers" don't have a Scooby?

07:28
SeaHawk - another fact check, I'm afraid. The Talitha #A location was chosen because it offered the best possibility of intersecting the Kuparuk, BFF, SFS and SMD in one well. Where you're getting mixed up is that *of the horizons* targeted by the Talitha #A well, the SMD was best understood at that time and management assessed it had the best characteristics of all four horizons. As such, the SMD was correctly labelled the primary target out of the four horizons at that location.

If you review the August webinar you'll note there are large SMD hotspots adjacent to the Dalton Highway and TAPS whose seismic characteristics indicate superior properties v's those of the SMD at Talitha. Remember Talitha is approx 8-9 miles from the Highway. Glad I could correct the record. I'll take the professional, on the record analysis of the guy who discovered the 1.2BBO Alpine oilfield (Roger Young of eSeis) over some anonymous poster who would prefer to score bulletin board points rather than work towards a consensus understanding of the facts of the investment case.

As to your "conjecture" retort, that's also not quite true, is it. Noting the caveat with which I was happy to preface my remarks, it is not conjecture if management is guiding in an RNS towards collecting further data from the SMD when drilling Alkaid-2 (and Alkaid-3). Combine the company's formal guidance with Roger Young's seismic interpretation of SMD sweet spots adjacent to the Highway and that's far from conjecture. It is decidedly *not* conjecture to state that the market will be compelled to add any further empirical data collection on the SMD by Alkaid-2 to the PANR investment case.

Quit fighting, SeaHawk, and focus on the investment case.

Incorrect SeaHawk. The oil is from the flow tests of the BFF and SFS at ***Talitha***, not Alkaid. There is no active activity within the Alkaid Unit currently.

Speaking of which, I'm fact checking an earlier post of yours. If, and I repeat if, PANR is able to collect further confirmatory data on the SMD from Alkaid-2 or Alkaid-3 this Spring/Summer/Autumn, because it is the same horizon, same formation, there will without any shadow of a doubt be sufficient value add to geologists and reservoir engineers such that the equity markets will, at a minimum, be faced with adding that data and subsequent interpretation to their investment case.

neil9327 - you write well, cogently and clearly. If there's 1% of your decision making faculty left open-minded then take 3 mins to watch the YouTube link below and perhaps the penny will drop. Same goes for others who think as Neil does.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTvtSKXwu0o

Even if the penny doesn't drop, you'll hopefully have smiled knowingly at some point in those 3 mins! FWIW, prior to the creation of Seinfeld and Curb Your Enthusiasm, Fawlty Towers was my favourite sitcom of all time. It's now Curb, Seinfeld and then Fawlty Towers, in that order. Enjoy the clip. Oh, and insert "flow testing equipment" for "mid sized car".

11:52
Correcting the record for the final time. I recognise amateur psychologist, (zeusvalhallah) has elected not to believe me so this is addressed to the 14 readers who may (or may not) have been misinformed by his post timed at 11:52. Here's what he should have posted.

a) Scot126's sources reported the situation at the time of the initial debate about testing equipment. Those sources have not withdrawn their reports and confirmed *they were correct when given*. Events outside PANR's control (Big 3 contractor massive human error and Slope-wide shut down for 3 days due to weather) meant that kit reserved for a specific task(s) were no longer available as per the plan. Scot126 first learned of this at the same time as everyone else when last week's RNS was published. The fact that so many readers of this forum and the other place haven't picked up on the nuanced explanation about equipment availability provided by Jay is not a Scot126 problem, it's a failure on the part of the readers. Sometimes in life when a schedule's timing goes awry, it leads to knock-on effects which are outside of a company's control. This is especially true if there's subsequently a tug or war between a junior and senior player.

Apart from that, B) - E) look about right.

I've said my piece. I'm standing by the record having checked with my sources. If folk on this forum think I'm a liar, there's not much I can do about it. If folk aren't sufficiently grown up to realise that when unplanned events occur which push the calendar at least a couple of weeks to the right, that this won't have knock on effects which will occasionally be undesirable, then they're being wilfully ignorant or sticking their heads in the sand. /Ends

Notwithstanding all of the above, the focus is rightly now on the BFF Lower. I encourage any reader who doesn't follow the forum on the other place to read "EnergyHobbs'" post of today. EnergyHobbs = Telemachus, fyi. He dismantles the probability analysis of the "toss of a coin" merchants. Instead of a 50:50 call, he's suggesting a range of CoS for the BFF Lower flow test of 87.5% to 91.7%. I am lucky in that I am aware of Telemachus' professional background. For those who don't believe I'm a liar, all I'll add is that I'm happy to testify that Telemachus is certainly qualified professionally to make public his probability analysis.

PS Neil9327 - That's a more logical description of my approach but it's still factually incorrect. Readers over many years on the other place will recall very easily that I have placed on record my dissatisfaction with certain management decisions. This is an incontrovertible fact. Sadly, it then appears Neil has also chosen not to believe that unforeseen events change plans. There's nothing I can do about that.

17:08 and 11:22
Forwood - I've checked my sources and your interpretation is plain wrong.

SeaHawk - cry harder. I corrected you a while back and you're still having a tanty. If you've followed my posting history you'll know that when I make a *factual* error, I am ***delighted*** to correct the record. I've been in the equity markets since 1994 and have had to correct the record on investment cases hundreds of times in those years. It's no big deal. It's what honourable people do when dealing with fellow professionals. Within banks, broking firms and the buyside the reaction to correcting the record is "great, more information, all the better to make a more sound investment decision."

In the schoolyard world of bulletin boards where our usernames are anonymous for goodness sake, correcting the record is like admitting you've got nits.

I'm standing by my posts on the subject. /End

marmaris et al - I don't know if you keep up with content on the other place? Please find below a post which I trust will make sense to guys who have worked in the sector, and especially for those who have worked for juniors v's the majors. I'm not going to be debating it any further save to say the information I had posted on this site previously was correct *at the time of writing*. "Events, dear boy, events" took over and it is what it is.

"I'm not going to debate this further because what's done is done. I suggest folk need to ponder what happens when the best laid plans of mice and men go off piste. A contractor from one of the Big 3 fooooks up royally on the cement job at Theta West. Then there are weather issues and before you know it your planned timelines mean that kit reserved for a specific task at a specific time is no longer available because the schedule has moved too far to the right. Perhaps a massive North Slope operator flexes their muscles and before you know it, where you thought you had 2 pieces of equipment, you only have one....through no fault of your own.

It is what it is. This BoD (especially since the GB merger) is very clear in its communications. They could have sat on this news over the weekend, post the Ukraine/nuclear story of Friday, but they didn't. When they informed us during the January webinar they'd announce news "as and when", they clearly meant exactly that.

The SMD hasn't disappeared. Rational and logical decision-making sees PANR flow testing the BFF Lower beginning next week. This is by a huuuge margin the largest potential jewel in PANR's crown - fact. If there was only one horizon to be tested all winter, I'd want it to be the BFF Lower.

The fundamentals are intact. Focus now on the BFF Lower at Theta West. GLA"

Dear All - please find below Canaccord's reaction to yesterday's news from Talitha and Theta West. Note is dated 4/3/22.

Pantheon Resources
Oil and Gas, Exploration and Production | Flash Update
Talitha testing ending, equipment to mobilise to Theta West

PANR-AIM | Price 135p | Market Cap £1,008.1M
SPECULATIVE BUY Unchanged
PRICE TARGET 220p Unchanged

Full focus turns to Theta West well testing
Talitha SMD reservoir test - disappointment as downhole blockage impacts result

After perforating and stimulating a 10ft interval of the SMD reservoir, and after a three day blizzard-related interruption, the SMD test produced only 45% of the fracture fluid, no formation water, and only small amounts of light oil (34 API) over a very short period. The well then stopped flowing entirely.

As no reservoir fluids were produced — apart from these very small amounts of oil — the company and external consultants consider this is due to a blockage in or around the well-bore. Pantheon believes that the SMD reservoir should have flowed at better rates than the two previous tests (Basin Floor Fan, BFF, 73 bopd; Slope Fan 45 bopd) and certainly in line with or better than the pre-drill anticipated 50-80 bopd.

Theta West - successful remedial work, now ready to test

Pantheon has successfully drilled out the cement plug in the well-bore and set a new liner. The well is now ready for perforation, stimulation, and flow-testing.

The coil tubing unit and ancillary equipment will mobilise imminently from Talitha to Theta West, as soon as the large drilling rig at Theta West demobilises.

We understand that the timetable should allow the testing phase of the BFF at Theta West to commence around mid March providing two, or perhaps three weeks to complete the testing programme before all equipment has to leave the site as temperatures warm.

Canaccord Genuity view:

Clearly, there is some disappointment that the final, and perhaps the best, test in Talitha on the original primary target reservoir has not been possible. A good result could have provided definitive support for potential commerciality of the SMD reservoir at the site.

However, we think the positive news regarding successful remedial work at Theta West and the decision to move testing equipment early to carry out the test is very sensible. The testing of the Theta West BFF reservoir was always a key part of this phase of Pantheon's 2022 operational programme and those results should be in by end of March.

Valuation and rating: We maintain our 220p target price and SPECULATIVE BUY rating.

Dear All - please find below WH Ireland's reaction to yesterday's news from Talitha and Theta West. Note is dated 4/3/22.

Pantheon Resources (PANR) – Corporate – Operational Update
Market Cap £1,008.1m Share Price 134.6p (last close)

Pantheon Resources announced that it has suspended testing of the SMD from the Talitha #A. A mechanical or chemical blockage in the well appears to have materialised. Operational difficulties have stemmed from extreme blizzard conditions in Alaska. Importantly, wire line and mud logs indicated that the SMD should have been one of the most productive zones of the well, underlining the company’s assessment that the well has had a mechanical issue or chemical blockage.

The company announced that remedial work allowing for the testing of the BFF at the Theta West well has been successful. Testing equipment is being moved there from the Talitha #A well.

WHI View: We are relieved that the remedial work at Theta West has been successful. We had probably underestimated the challenges associated with Arctic winter conditions. We believe that the company made the right decision given the potential scale of Theta West (1,401 million barrels of oil). We now focus our attention on the Theta West well testing knowing that the Alkaid #2 is lined up for drilling/testing into the summer months.

We believe that the intensification of the acute energy crisis provides an increasingly favourable backdrop for Pantheon’s projects.

Please examine the diagram in the announcement. Be very careful because it's *not* quite drawn to scale.

It may very well be that Talitha #A is located 2.8 miles north of Icewine-1, accepted. However, the green vertical representation of the Theta West well is approx 10.5 miles west-north-west of Talitha #A. PANR management believes the Theta West drill location is at or close to the proverbial bullseye of the Basin Floor Fan (BFF).

Being genuinely serious now. You all know I've said for months now that the true value of 88E's assets is to be found in Project Icewine. I beseech you all to, at a minimum, educate yourselves about Theta West/Talitha/Alkaid. Any research you do will be rewarded.

Final thought for tonight. Ever wondered why PANR hasn't published an RNS of a similar nature to this one from 88E, except round the other way? You know, making a great play that data uncovered by 88E on thier acreage has positive implications for PANR's investment case? Hmmmm.......I wonder. :)

DYOR

Happy days, eh?!

Before you all get your knickers in a twist about milkshaking laws in Alaska, etc, etc. may I suggest you ask the oilmen on here a few questions?

1) What does the term "distal" mean in connection with an oil reservoir? Perhaps start reading about the Basin Floor Fan, how Talitha is described by PANR management as "distal" v's the Theta West drill location.....and then look at a map and note how Icewine is even further away from Theta West than Talitha #A. Oops.

2) Ask them if it is better to possess the updip or downdip portion of any oilfield, knowing that oil is less dense than water?

3) Ask them why PANR management has published maps and associated webinar commentary which state their interpretation is that PANR owns >90% of the combined oilfields?

4) After all that, and happy to stipulate Premier had other things going on at the time, why did Premier walk away after Charlie-1? I wonder if they picked the wrong farm in project? Maybe 88E shareholders ought to have asked Premier that question?

Still, it's an awesome ANN/RNS, no doubt. Can't help wondering why it is that the market is valuing 88E's 10% of the combined asset at £350m and PANR's 90% of the combined asset at £1bn.

I can see why 88E management elected to make such an announcement prior to the market working out that ***even if Merlin-2 was spectacularly successful geologically***, the NPV will hardly move. I 100% welcome the wider market's comparative analysis of the two investment cases. Just wait until the thousands of US punters read some American broker research which informs them they've backed the Shetland pony when there's a Woolly Mammoth a few miles to the north of them. ;)

Some will recall I promised this forum the mispricing wouldn't last into perpetuity? 88E's announcement this evening has just accelerated that process.

Think.

Enjoy the party in the petting zoo but, I contend directly, Jurassic Park is next door! :)