Member Info for Scot126

19:59
chrisev1 - I profoundly disagree. The fundamentals of the two asset bases, as currently understood, do not support in the slightest the view that 88E has "a lot more potential than PANR". Quite the opposite.

I appreciate such analysis may be disagreeable to you, chrisev1, but the maths doesn't lie.

The following is an *opinion* based on observation of previous behaviour by 88E management. I offer a possible explanation for 88E SP weakness in the short term.

1) The most obvious answer is that the wider market, despite the best efforts of fact-resistant posters on this forum, has realised PANR is cheaper on a risk/return basis than 88E. My arguments on this front are well-rehearsed: differential in scale, quality and quantity of empirical data from 3D and drilling results, finance in place v's insufficient finance, quality of corporate governance, currently operational v's 2023, etc, etc.

2) I think (hope?) there is a consensus view based on the most recent Q2 financial report that 88E will have to a) undertake a highly dilutive capital raise b) give up a significant slice of Icewine East or c) both a + b in order to finance a drill in Icewine East at some point in 2023.

Let's place ourselves in management's shoes. There was c.US$7.25m on the b/s at the end of Q2 with some more bills to pay for Merlin-2; the ongoing cost of licensing 3D seismic (which outrageously has still not been communicated in full to shareholders)l; ongoing G&A and leasing fees offset by the income from Longhorn. Either which way, there is not a snowball's chance that 88E can self-fund Icewine-3 in 2023 in the current situation. All agreed?

So, do they wait for the data to start arriving from PANR's Alkaid-2 and then launch a fundraise off the back of any publicity generated? Or is that too much of a risk, and the overwhelming and primary role of the BoD/MD/FD is to ensure the company is funded no matter what? I submit that some shareholders have voted with their feet and decided to sell because they suspect the company will be readying for a cash raise some time soon.

To be clear, I have no idea what path management will choose. But they are going to have to make a choice. even deciding to wait for the data to arrive from PANR's Alkaid-2 is a "decision".

I submit readers of this forum are facing a similar choice, with one meaningful exception. Yes, shareholders can decide to sell because they don't wish to be diluted further (and if 88E is to *self-finance* Icewine-3 we're talking about a minimum of US$30m IMO) but that will mean losing exposure to the shared asset over the period when news, good or bad, arrives from Alkaid-2. There is a possible solution. Selling 88E to remove oneself from the risk of dilution but to invest that capital to buy shares in the ***funded*** co-owner of the asset. In so doing, an investor keeps exposure to the same asset but reduces the funding risk.

I repeat, the minute Dave Wall stated formally 88E and PANR share an asset, these types of compare'n'contrast exercises become essential and utterly standard for equity analysts. Fact.

14:48
Lol, good one!

Excellent video just posted. Go to YouTube, search for "Great Bear Pantheon" and see Michael Duncan presenting from the gravel pad.

Not long now.

22:08
Easy there, solstace. There's no "certainly" about it. Remember a) they're going through the TD of Alkaid-1, who knows by how much? b) PANR has an established precedent of not RNSing until they reach TD. None of that nonsense going RNS-happy on the way down through the horizons/intervals like the promotional end of the E&P spectrum.

PANR management are a serious bunch of people. Great if we get some news next week, but there's *no* guarantee. Let's just keep the definitive and declarative vocabulary out of our public posts otherwise incorrect expectations begin to form a consensus => volatility => no good to either the company or shareholders. Thanks.

22:08

13:43
GS - that's a disgraceful allegation to make. No evidence, no proof, no medical qualifications. Clearly no manners or honour taught as part of your upbringing. Shame on you.

12:25
Marmaris - fwiw I've got w/c 1st August *pencilled in* for news on the vertical TD. Any news before then would be cool, but that's my best guesstimate on timing. I agree with you on the horizontal. It may be PANR's first horizontal in Alaska but it's definitely not Nabor's first rodeo!

12:31
Fresh from commenting for the umpteenth time on another human being's mental health on the 88E forum, here we have a perfect example of Ddraig's hypocrisy. How so? Well it seems Ddraig is happy to describe the contents of solstace's post (08:49) as "bold" but for some reason when fantasists talk about 10p/25p/£ parties on the 88E forum not a whisper of caution from Ddraig? Odd, most odd indeed.

FWIW, on a successful Alkaid-2 result which sees an Alkaid Deep extension plus confirmation of SMD data plus successful production from the lateral I can certainly justify a movement in SP up to 250-300p. A 500%+ move, whilst attainable IMHO, we might have to wait for further drills to delineate the BFF at Theta West.

[For those new to the reprehensible Ddraig, he encouraged another poster on the 88E forum to commit suicide. He's a piece of work. He's been yellow carded repeatedly by the moderators and had posts deleted many times. Despite his history, he refuses to stop commenting on other folk's mental health. Social media platforms have surely *got* to grips with people like Ddraig.]

Please find link below to a video of the Nabors rig drilling Alkaid-2 yesterday. Exciting times.

https://twitter.com/PantheonResour1/status/1550059228009840640

21:19
Hi Jay1987 - I refer you to my post dated 19/7/22 @ 9.38am.
Lots of people focussed on Scot126 when the matter at issue is gaining a factual and truthful account of the 88E investment case. Do better.

18:40
Ok, Theoilfinder, please tell this forum which of the four main questions listed below are not standard questions which O&G analysts/bankers inside banks/broking firms/buyside institutions won't be asking *right now* when examining the 88E investment case? Happy to read your response but I doubt there'll be one. The reason for my confidence that these are the questions being asked is because that's what I did in equity markets for >25 years, day in , day out. You may not *like* the answers to those questions but that doesn't make them any less valid.

If you wish to fact check any of those four questions, or better yet actually get off your a$$ and answer them then I look forward to reading your response.

Here are the questions that 88E shareholders deserve answered.

1) What is the full payment to SAE for the 3D seismic data? 88E shareholders will have noted the $1m payment in shares in the initial RNS but, as described, that was only a part payment. The Q2 financial report confirmed a *further cash payment of $2m* to SAE, the seismic data provider. Is the cash license fee $2m a month, $2m a quarter, $2m every 6 months, $2m per annum or what? Bear in mind PANR/GB invested $80m in shooting 3D seismic, resulting in the largest 3D seismic package in Alaska. Brom - surely c.$3m to license the data from SAE seems, on the face of it, an incredibly low price to pay?

Or are 88E shareholders not permitted to know the full payment terms? Seems odd, doesn't it? The way the full facts of the licensing costs are dripped out over multiple announcements? Hmmm. Any ORRI attached to the license payments? Is Erik Opstad or associates or family a party/parties to this transaction?

2) I note from the Q2 report that not all bills have been paid by 88E for Merlin-2. I think Merlin-2 cost c.A$39m. What will the final tally be please? How does the cost of Merlin-2 compare with Merlin-1? And in case there's any mix up or misunderstanding, I'm talking the *total* cost of each drill which *includes* the cost to construct and maintain the snow roads. Of the circa US$55-60m cost of Merlin-1 & Merlin-2, what percentage or absolute amount was paid in cash to ELKO or any other company where the Opstad family has a financial interest? Please also confirm all share-based payments to ELKO/Opstad family businesses over the last 2 years.

3) Has the 88E BoD instructed their lawyers to release the funds from the ELKO share sales in 2022? If so, when were the shares sold, at what price and what was the total sum realised? Please confirm that ELKO did indeed sell all of the shares allotted to them for the 2022 season, just as they did in 2021?

4) Is 88E management gilding the lily when describing to 88E shareholders their hope that the common reservoirs will possess even better characteristics south of the border than in PANR's acreage.....especially when DMAX calculations appear to have been completely ignored by 88E? Do you have any concerns that 88E management are misrepresenting the relative properties of the acreage north and south of the boundary line between PANR and 88E?

13:08
Theoilfinder - I enjoyed reading your description of the late Paul Basinski's legacy. All I would add for the sake of accuracy is that Paul was targeting the unconventional HRZ shale in the Icewine location, exactly as PANR/GB did in the first few years of its existence. PANR/GB turned their attention to the shallower conventional targets earlier than 88E which explains, in part, why it is further along the road to producing first commercial oil in the next few weeks at Alkaid-2.

I'm not picking a fight with Theoilfinder just for the sake of it. It's just that his post *may* unintentionally mislead readers of this forum. Yes, I think both 88E and PANR reckon there are indeed billions of barrels of oil contained in the unconventional HRZ but neither company is making any claim currently that the unconventional is commercially viable. In all honesty, if the unconventional HRZ is ever to be a productive asset for either company, it will rely almost entirely on extensive infrastructure on the surface in order to support the economics of such an endeavour.

To be blunt, there is a clear consensus in the senior management of both companies that all focus in the foreseeable future will be directed at the shallower conventional reservoirs initially discovered by PANR. So Paul may very well be proved correct in the long run ref. HRZ shale. In the meantime both companies will be delighted if he's proven 'correct but for the wrong reason' concerning commercial exploitation of the conventional reservoirs.

Now then, what of those factual questions I posed about 88E? It would be naive of me to expect unctuous praise from this forum for raising the questions but it simply cannot be the case that a number of you don't have some nagging questions about the company? Folk like Rabito79 and I were *spot on* about Project Peregrine and we've also described in granular detail how the market analyses the relative merits of each company. That track record would suggest, at the very least, that the questions we pose are rational and *normal* when examining the investment cases of E&P companies.

Oh, and I'm Scot126 on lse, the other place and on Twitter. I don't have any other username(s), thus I'm not olderwiser. I always read his content because I learn from his expertise. I also noticed that Brom no longer refers to olderwiser once he started to identify and post concerns he had about 88E. Funny that.

13:34
FWIW, I think 3sandsoffbottom's schedule doesn't look unreasonable. I've *pencilled in* w/c 1/8/22 for TD related newsflow. Anything earlier, that'll be fine too!

15:56
Hi Brom -you have an odd habit of ignoring any questions which, when answered, would cast a negative light on the company. Hmmmm, it's almost like you're not really interested in sharing the facts of the investment case with this forum after all?

Anyhoo, here are a few of those questions of fact which I'm sure all GLTHs like yourself must be anxious to have answered. Remember it was you who you kindly informed the forum that 88E management respond to your emails very quickly. I believe you 100%. Would you kindly ask them the following questions please:

1) What is the full payment to SAE for the 3D seismic data? 88E shareholders will have noted the $1m payment in shares in the initial RNS but, as described, that was only a part payment. The Q2 financial report confirmed a *further cash payment of $2m* to SAE, the seismic data provider. Is the cash license fee $2m a month, $2m a quarter, $2m every 6 months, $2m per annum or what? Bear in mind PANR/GB invested $80m in shooting 3D seismic, resulting in the largest 3D seismic package in Alaska. Brom - surely c.$3m to license the data from SAE seems, on the face of it, an incredibly low price to pay?

Or are 88E shareholders not permitted to know the full payment terms? Seems odd, doesn't it? The way the full facts of the licensing costs are dripped out over multiple announcements? Hmmm. Any ORRI attached to the license payments? Is Erik Opstad or associates or family a party/parties to this transaction?

2) I note from the Q2 report that not all bills have been paid by 88E for Merlin-2. I think Merlin-2 cost c.A$39m. What will the final tally be please? How does the cost of Merlin-2 compare with Merlin-1? And in case there's any mix up or misunderstanding, I'm talking the *total* cost of each drill which *includes* the cost to construct and maintain the snow roads. Of the circa US$55-60m cost of Merlin-1 & Merlin-2, what percentage or absolute amount was paid in cash to ELKO or any other company where the Opstad family has a financial interest? Please also confirm all share-based payments to ELKO/Opstad family businesses over the last 2 years.

3) Has the 88E BoD instructed their lawyers to release the funds from the ELKO share sales in 2022? If so, when were the shares sold, at what price and what was the total sum realised? Please confirm that ELKO did indeed sell all of the shares allotted to them for the 2022 season, just as they did in 2021?

4) Is 88E management gilding the lily when describing to 88E shareholders their hope that the common reservoirs will possess even better characteristics south of the border than in PANR's acreage.....especially when DMAX calculations appear to have been completely ignored by 88E? Do you have any concerns that 88E management are misrepresenting the relative properties of the acreage north and south of the boundary line between PANR and 88E?

Many thanks in anticipation.

Scot126

19:44
chrisev1 - you're a shareholder in 88E so presumably you're on top of this matter? Being a thorough type of investor, you'll have kept in touch with the American OTC shareholder group who organised and submitted the petition along with the request to the Australian regulator to investigate 88E? If you haven't kept on top of it, I can see why you're anxious to learn what's going on. Just imagine waking up to news on that topic, eh?

You can always ask Brom. He informs us regularly that the company responds to his communications "very quickly indeed". Or contact the ASX yourself, listing your concerns?

Listen chrisev1. If, and I repeat if, you're starting to have concerns about their corporate governance or if you've had that lingering thought in your head for a while, then all I would say is that in my experience over 25 odd years in the market (mostly small caps) then it rarely ends well for such companies.

20:22
Hi Blingybird - the transition from pennies into pounds doesn't make the slightest difference to the attitudes of banks/institutions. Try not to listen to the uneducated over on other threads who spout this nonsense. The only thing you need to be aware of in that respect is market capitalisation. Whether a company has a billion shares priced at a pound or a million shares priced at a thousand pounds, the value of the company is the same. Very sadly for them, a number of shareholders in 88E do not understand this mathematical fact. Over on the US OTC, there may be some historical conventions or rules about such things but not in the UK. Also, and for what it's worth, American institutions in my experience prefer to deal on the exchange of the primary listing, which is AIM for PANR. Just fyi.

20:22

15:26 and 16:22
Both Ddraig and chrisev1 will be aware a petition was organised by US OTC 88E shareholders which attracted widespread support. From following that campaign on Twitter, I *understand* the signatories were requesting the Australian regulators investigate 88E.