David Paul, Managing Director of VectorVest in the UK joined us to talk through stock picking fundamentals, technical analysis and more. Watch the full video here.
…as if investors really needed it at this stage (I joke, always appreciate the corroboration from neutral scientists)
“The key finding came when the team compared nasopharyngeal swabs from people with different severity of COVID-19 illness:
In people with mild or moderate COVID-19, epithelial cells showed increased activation of genes involved with antiviral responses—especially genes stimulated by type I interferon, a very early alarm that rallies the broader immune system.
In people who developed severe COVID-19, requiring mechanical ventilation, antiviral responses were markedly blunted. In particular, their epithelial cells had a muted response to interferon, despite harboring high amounts of virus. At the same time, their swabs had increased numbers of macrophages and other immune cells that boost inflammatory responses.
"Everyone with severe COVID-19 had a blunted interferon response early on in their epithelial cells, and were never able to ramp up a defense," says Ordovás-Montañés. "Having the right amount of interferon at the right time could be at the crux of dealing with SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses."”
Evidently, one of the main ways to keep hospitalisations limited in this world of variants, variable vaccine efficacy and an *extremely* varying vaccine coverage, will be to bolster the immune response in those patients who look like they may deteriorate, I.e. symptomatic patients (in my view, just as easily identifiable as those demonstrating breathlessness)
Apologies if already covered on here.
The latest in a long line of articles shared by Eric referencing the importance of the interferon-beta response in protecting the body from C-19.
And adds to a massive body of independent research supporting Synairgen; I really do believe it is simply a matter of time.
Unfortunately time seems to be the thing that some investors are afraid of. In my opinion this completely misunderstands the nature of the commercial opportunity. It is now virtually inevitable that Covid-19 will become endemic. With it being so widespread, so easily transmitted, capable of jumping between humans and animals, and with such poor vaccination coverage (in terms of numbers and vaccine quality) likely to persist for billions of people for a number of years, COVID-19 will stick around... even if in a year's time we're looking at a totally different strain... again.
In addition, governments around the world are now beginning to accept that we'll simply have to learn to live with it, rather than seek eradication. Occasional outbreaks and seasonal surges are pretty much guaranteed, meaning that the best treatments won't be seen as a flash-in-the-pan fire sale, but will probably be looked at (by larger pharmaceutical players) as a substantial near-term opportunity followed by a consistent, if reduced, longer-term opportunity.
This will, IMO, make all the difference in terms of valuing Synairgen, and ensures that a much larger multiple of sales / revenue will be applied by (a) the market and (b) potential suitors.
Patience is key!
I live in a Tory area, so this isn't as easy for me, but some of the lobbying efforts encouraged by contributors on this board have clearly worked / are continuing to work.
The scandals surrounding the Tory party clearly present a massive political opportunity for the opposition, and with them having recently launched the 'build in Britain' initiative (or whatever it is) I would strongly suggest sending over some of those templated emails to any of your Labour MPs / councillors to increase the noise further.
There's only so much Neale Hanvey can do on his own!
with a professional use only product at the minute, there perhaps isn't a massive need for that kind of marketing
I also wouldn't be surprised if marketing is wholly in each distributor's hands
That being said, I'd also like to see all of the above once we get personal use certification
Hospitalisations showing some sharp increases too
Will be interesting to see how the lambda variant plays out too, what with even higher transmissibility and potentially marginally greater vaccine evasion
Quality, adaptability, reliability of supply, sampling method, ease of use will all give AffiDx an edge. Besides, the HUGE global markets for these things will more than cater for multiple high quality participants
Talks with the DHSC still ongoing too, if you think an autumn supply of rapid tests won’t be needed to keep large portions of society moving when we all start going down with colds/flus, you’re completely mad.
Oh and then there’s the fact billions of people won’t get consistently effective vaccine coverage for years
Things continue to worsen in Russia
As in India / Latin America, the virus is continuing to get plenty more hosts to latch on to and mutate via
The more of these opportunities it gets, the more likely vaccine escape (partial or whole) becomes over time
Many of these countries won’t have proper coverage with high efficacy vaccines that don’t require top-ups for years too, so these regional flare ups are going to be a continual issue and a massive risk for policymakers / healthcare bodies to deal with.
How best to mitigate the risk of lockdowns? Keep people out of hospital!
Wow. That really is quite substantial news, thanks for the inputs @matterhorn et al.
So nice to see an adaptive umbrella trial structure working efficiently too; kicking out inadequate candidates early and, therefore, reserving limited resources for only the most promising ones.
Very unlike our own fabled RECOVERY trial which, whilst it has earned many of its plaudits, is extremely rigid by design. Wasting over 10,000 patients on a number of pointless therapies with seemingly NO interim analysis to establish a rationale for continuing enrolment at those rates, in an emergency like COVID-19, is frankly offensively poor trial design.
Combining that with its focus on cheap, off the shelf, options which have not been specifically designed to counter the mechanisms by which COVID-19 attacks the body, has made it even more redundant.
Anyway, good to see the Americans doing their level best to quickly determine the best candidates and throw their weight behind them. Should be obvious really (if it’s obvious to me, that’s evidence enough in my opinion). Not long to go now thankfully!
100% Welsh falcon
Yes antibody treatments can be tweaked for variants as we go (much like how vaccines will be), but how much more cost and time effective would it be to simply focus our efforts on generic treatment options. This simply mitigates so much risk.
With the right partner, Synairgen have a real opportunity to dominate this market, certainly in terms of reputation. There’s no doubt that SNG001 will have competitors, but hopefully they can carve out a clear position as best in class. The Ferrari of the C-19 treatment world.
There was a great deal of fanfare surrounding this drug when first approved. I think the ramifications of it being suspended are actually very big indeed.
Regulators are perhaps coming to the realisation that variant-resistant treatment options are the by far the best hedge in this pandemic, certainly where a long-term view is taken and in terms of cost-effectiveness. You do not want to have to bin €100s millions worth of antibody ****tails.
Combine this variant resistance with the fact that SNG001 is likely to prove more effective, versatile and user-friendly than practically *all* antibody-based treatments, then you can see why the Numis broker note bull case target went up to £50 per share.
Let’s hope talk of a P3 interim analysis (honestly I really hope Richard is considering this, given the disappointingly slow trial uptake) as well as a potential P3 progression announcement from the FDA on ACTIV-2, both come to fruition. Exciting times for investors as we enter H2.
I think we’ve already recorded over 30 in England alone.
I remember a certain other variant starting out at around those levels a month or two back, what could it have been?
Even greater infectiousness coupled with at least partial antibody evasion could make it veeeery interesting though. This probably isn’t the nastiest one we’ll be dealing with over winter either.
Our Gov’s consistent unwillingness to diversify our COVID-19 strategy beyond dependence upon just vaccines is mind-boggling though. At least they seem to be sounding the right notes on testing though, what with it now clearly sticking around around for years.
Quite agree, it won’t be more than a few weeks, maybe a month, until we’re back up to well above 200p.
These drops are a gift, it you can time then. Testing will be around for years and we could be producing up to 60m per month by year end, with 40m per month a not unreasonable projection.
Ties in with the Gov’s insistence that testing is here to stay for years to come
Establishing massive demand in this country alone
And no doubt this will be a system replicated throughout the EU too
Meanwhile Avacta remain completely schtum on news re the rapid testing consortium, accessing gov sponsored manufacturing capacity and any commercial implications as the nation’s sovereign (and highest quality) rapid test.
Is that a coincidence? Will that >12 months period of work come to absolutely nothing for Avacta and it’s fellow RTC members? I find the prospect highly unlikely personally
Having just rewatched that presentation, in particular the section on diagnostics, I find the timing and intended purpose of it even more suspect. Especially given what was said about providing updates " as soon a available" with regards ongoing discussions with the UK Gov. There was clear emphasis here.
There really wasn't that much properly "new" information otherwise.
My bet: activities with the UK Gov pushed back a month or two, for reasons relating to manufacturing scale up and properly coordinating a test-to-release framework across Gov / healthcare agencies, in time for the full withdrawal of all COVID-19 restrictions.
Exactly, and with the DHSC and the Gov themselves indicating in no uncertain terms that testing to monitor / control / release / travel / attend events etc and (of course) diagnose cases, will be around for *years* to come
Do we really think that 12 months' work with this consortium, massive manufac capacity upscaling, and potentially the best LFT in the world will not generate serious commercial results in this context?
As with a lot of these COVID-19 stocks, some exceptional buying opportunities tend to come along every few months. Avacta is no exception, and despite the slip in investor sentiment, I think its highly unlikely this drop will last... as with every other drop before it.
A great entry point to many looking on from the sidelines or for a top-up.
Having followed Avacta for the past 18 months now, I am fortunately quite desensitised to this kind of price action. Many will remember the silly 50% November vaccine drop, and how quickly that recovered.
The fundamentals are still very much there and big prizes of substantial domestic and overseas manufacturing capacity, £100s millions in annualised revenues, a gargantuan war chest to thrust both the diagnostics and therapeutics division forward years, 3-5 years of at least steady sales (starting with 12-24 months or so or very substantial sales)... another few months for the realisation of all the above is fine by me. I don't think it'll be more than a few weeks before investors come to agree either. This pattern is quite predictable now.
Additionally, I can't help but conclude that there is still more to come from this tie up with the DHSC, what with:
- their recent press releases on LFTs following the FDA recall
- the 2 month EUA extension only
- the move to use regular LFT testing to take people out of quarantine
- the DHSC's intention to ensure that all LFT performance criteria is clearly assessed and advertised
- the suspect timing of the webinar
- our long-standing association with other rapid test consortium members, now going back >6 months
- AVCT's consistent silence on the topic, other than vague references to HM Gov manufacturing capacity
For all the above, and many other clues along the way, to come to absolutely nothing, strikes me as incredibly unlikely.